Prospect Info: The 2020 Entry NHL Draft Thread: Part II

[Papa Francouz]

Yes I would pick Brisson and honestly there isn't a lot of lads I am against picking in the late 1st round for this draft. If we were to go off McKenzie's list, there are just a handful of guys I would pass on like Kleven, Hunt, Cuyelle, Barron, and perhaps some of the WHL forwards. FTR I actually don't hate players like Hunt, Barron, Grieg, or Neighbours and would say they have some really good attributes. However, each one of them either has red flags (Neighbours skating), too raw (Hunt/Kleven), or has overrated talent (Barron). I am still not a big believer in the defenders for this draft, even though there great ones that can be had. There is an interesting stat article out there that I can't find, but it was showing the success rate of NHL picks in the first round. The list was based on tiers and what the stats indicated is that players who were hyped, but fell in the late 1st round made the NHL and produced much more significantly than players teams liked or reached for right before the 20-ish range.

They found the same thing in the top ten as well where picks 1-6 turned to be very good, but picks that were "semi-reaches" around 7 to 12 actually did worse. Kuznetsov, Pastrnak, Vasilevskiy, Burakovsky, Theodore, DeAngelo, Boeser, Konency, Beauvillier, Steel, and Frost are perfect examples of what I mean in terms of hyped players falling for one reason or another, yet being better than a lot of the players picked at least ten picks ahead of them (except Frost who was a good reach). Gunler is a perfect example of someone who could potentially join this list and I still suggest that Peterka, Mysak, and Khusnutdinov are other significant ones to watch out for as well.

Alright, good to know. I'll have to browse McKenzie's list a bit more thoroughly and check out the players he has listed towards the end of the 1st. Do you have a preference in drafting a defenseman or forward with the 31st pick?

Also, that's a really interesting study and it confirms some of my beliefs about the draft. There's got to be a ton of anxiety that comes with picking players to be the future of a franchise, and I imagine a lot of head scouts and GMs start second guessing themselves despite having a list that was compiled prior to the draft and they end up going off the board due to gut instincts. That, or scouts that help make the lists probably change their minds due to some sort of anxiety as the list is being made. Either way, as someone who gets analysis paralysis about the smallest and least important shit in the world, that study makes total sense to me. I'm always hoping the Avs go for a faller as opposed to a riser during the draft for these reasons, but they haven't really gone off the board recently in the 1st round. I guess maybe Kaut was a bit of a reach, but did they pass on any fallers to scoop up Kaut? I honestly don't remember.

 

[Chiarelli]

Alright, good to know. I'll have to browse McKenzie's list a bit more thoroughly and check out the players he has listed towards the end of the 1st. Do you have a preference in drafting a defenseman or forward with the 31st pick?

Also, that's a really interesting study and it confirms some of my beliefs about the draft. There's got to be a ton of anxiety that comes with picking players to be the future of a franchise, and I imagine a lot of head scouts and GMs start second guessing themselves despite having a list that was compiled prior to the draft and they end up going off the board due to gut instincts. That, or scouts that help make the lists probably change their minds due to some sort of anxiety as the list is being made. Either way, as someone who gets analysis paralysis about the smallest and least important shit in the world, that study makes total sense to me. I'm always hoping the Avs go for a faller as opposed to a riser during the draft for these reasons, but they haven't really gone off the board recently in the 1st round. I guess maybe Kaut was a bit of a reach, but did they pass on any fallers to scoop up Kaut? I honestly don't remember.

Veleno fits this and a lot of people wanted him. Merkley dropped too I’m sure some people wanted him.

Others maybe ty smith, k’andre, bokk

Edit: I liked the pick at the time and still do

 

[henchman21]

Merkley mainly dropped because he hit a lot of team's do not draft list. By a lot I mean more than 10... his interviews weren't great and he had a reputation.

 

[S E P H]

Alright, good to know. I'll have to browse McKenzie's list a bit more thoroughly and check out the players he has listed towards the end of the 1st. Do you have a preference in drafting a defenseman or forward with the 31st pick?

I still think Avs should see who potential falls on their list and grab that player. I think we're in a position where we can take a bit more risk since we don't really need bottom 6 or high-end talent anymore (well perhaps a very good 2nd line winger is needed to increase depth). If we were to draft on need, then I agree with the premise that others have said on here that a right-handed defence should be our pick. Players like Grans and Niemela fit that bill and should be around where Avs should draft. I just would be disappointed to draft one of these lads over the likes of Gunler, Mysak, or Bourque for that matter. This is still a very good and heavily invested offensive draft with a lot of good forwards available. I say we got our defender in Byram and we should go for some riskier high upside offence. Then potentially target someone like Kuznetsov, Viro, Sebrango, Phillips, or Nickl in the third round.

Also, that's a really interesting study and it confirms some of my beliefs about the draft. There's got to be a ton of anxiety that comes with picking players to be the future of a franchise, and I imagine a lot of head scouts and GMs start second guessing themselves despite having a list that was compiled prior to the draft and they end up going off the board due to gut instincts. That, or scouts that help make the lists probably change their minds due to some sort of anxiety as the list is being made. Either way, as someone who gets analysis paralysis about the smallest and least important shit in the world, that study makes total sense to me. I'm always hoping the Avs go for a faller as opposed to a riser during the draft for these reasons, but they haven't really gone off the board recently in the 1st round. I guess maybe Kaut was a bit of a reach, but did they pass on any fallers to scoop up Kaut? I honestly don't remember.

I didn't want to include some of the future drafts because they're still quite young and evolving, but Chiarelli is quite right in his analysis. Avs didn't exactly "reach" for Kaut, but him along with Smith, Foudy, and O'Brien were players that their respected teams liked which allowed players like Merkley, Miller, and Veleno fall further than they should've.

 

[Balthazar]

Merkley mainly dropped because he hit a lot of team's do not draft list. By a lot I mean more than 10... his interviews weren't great and he had a reputation.

We knew about Merkley's redflags going into the draft though...what do you think happened to Veleno? He's a true faller.

 

[henchman21]

We knew about Merkley's redflags going into the draft though...what do you think happened to Veleno? He's a true faller.

Limited upside. Not enough talent in his game to be a #2C.

 

[Balthazar]

Limited upside. Not enough talent in his game to be a #2C.

That's a strange reason to drop 15+ spots on draft day though? I mean if that's the reason he shouldn't have been ranked high all season long. Usually this kind of drop is because of an injury scare or sudden news about their character...not talent related...

 

[henchman21]

That's a strange reason to drop 15+ spots on draft day though? I mean if that's the reason he shouldn't have been ranked high all season long. Usually this kind of drop is because of an injury scare or sudden news about their character...not talent related...

A player can be high on certain lists or even all lists and drop... just as long as there is one ahead of them available. Veleno's knock is only about his talent level, which is very valid.

 

[Papa Francouz]

Veleno fits this and a lot of people wanted him. Merkley dropped too I’m sure some people wanted him.

Others maybe ty smith, k’andre, bokk

Edit: I liked the pick at the time and still do

True. Veleno is a faller, for sure. I was downtown during the draft and remember hoping the Avs would pick him. Pretty sure I wanted Veleno or Bokk that year. I'm perfectly happy with Kaut, too, though.

I still think Avs should see who potential falls on their list and grab that player. I think we're in a position where we can take a bit more risk since we don't really need bottom 6 or high-end talent anymore (well perhaps a very good 2nd line winger is needed to increase depth). If we were to draft on need, then I agree with the premise that others have said on here that a right-handed defence should be our pick. Players like Grans and Niemela fit that bill and should be around where Avs should draft. I just would be disappointed to draft one of these lads over the likes of Gunler, Mysak, or Bourque for that matter. This is still a very good and heavily invested offensive draft with a lot of good forwards available. I say we got our defender in Byram and we should go for some riskier high upside offence. Then potentially target someone like Kuznetsov, Viro, Sebrango, Phillips, or Nickl in the third round.

I think you're right in that we don't need to play it safe anymore, but I'd much rather have the Avs go that direction at the draft than swing for the fences. I don't really trust their picks when they swing for the fences. I'd prefer someone like Gunler and Mysak, but I don't think they make it to our pick. And with the nice things @henchman24 has said about Niemela, I'd be happy if they chose him. It wouldn't wow me at all, but it would fit a future need and I'm a big fan of Euro players.

 

[Richard88]

True. Veleno is a faller, for sure. I was downtown during the draft and remember hoping the Avs would pick him. Pretty sure I wanted Veleno or Bokk that year. I'm perfectly happy with Kaut, too, though.


I think you're right in that we don't need to play it safe anymore, but I'd much rather have the Avs go that direction at the draft than swing for the fences. I don't really trust their picks when they swing for the fences. I'd prefer someone like Gunler and Mysak, but I don't think they make it to our pick. And with the nice things @henchman24 has said about Niemela, I'd be happy if they chose him. It wouldn't wow me at all, but it would fit a future need and I'm a big fan of Euro players.

I wouldn't be surprised if one of those guys fell to us. There's quite a lot of good forwards in this draft so it's pretty likely that there's at least one good faller. Particularly as teams often take Dmen higher than they "should" go as well (like the run on Dmen in the top 10-12 last year).

I agree with @S E P H that as nice as it would be to draft a RHD the best value pick in the late 1st will most likely be a forward. That said, ideally we can acquire a reasonably early 2nd rounder somehow (eg. by trading Zadorov) and walk away with a forward with our 1st and a Dman in the 2nd (eg. O'Rourke/Niemela).

 

[McMetal]

I actually kind of like picking late risers in the draft more than fallers. With guys who fall, especially highly ranked ones on "consensus" lists, like Veleno, I always wonder if maybe teams picking high who pass on them are the ones catching the red flags because they watch them so closely, and the GMs who snag then thinking they got a bargain don't see them. Guys who surge in the rankings late have a pretty good track record, including our very own 4th pick in 2017, as well as 3OA that year.

 

[Papa Francouz]

I wouldn't be surprised if one of those guys fell to us. There's quite a lot of good forwards in this draft so it's pretty likely that there's at least one good faller. Particularly as teams often take Dmen higher than they "should" go as well (like the run on Dmen in the top 10-12 last year).

I agree with @S E P H that as nice as it would be to draft a RHD the best value pick in the late 1st will most likely be a forward. That said, ideally we can acquire a reasonably early 2nd rounder somehow (eg. by trading Zadorov) and walk away with a forward with our 1st and a Dman in the 2nd (eg. O'Rourke/Niemela).

I hope you're right! It may not always work, but I like the idea of taking a late-1st Euro player. Especially in this draft with a lot of Euro forwards being ranked in that 20-40 range.

Also, you'll get zero disagreement from me on taking O'Rourke if we could get a 2nd round pick. I'm a Soo fan so I've seen a few of his games this year and like the consistency and safety in his game. Not much offense there but he makes the smart play 9/10 times. With these high-end puck movers joining the team soon he could help balance them out if he develops into a NHLer.

 

[Richard88]

I hope you're right! It may not always work, but I like the idea of taking a late-1st Euro player. Especially in this draft with a lot of Euro forwards being ranked in that 20-40 range.

Also, you'll get zero disagreement from me on taking O'Rourke if we could get a 2nd round pick. I'm a Soo fan so I've seen a few of his games this year and like the consistency and safety in his game. Not much offense there but he makes the smart play 9/10 times. With these high-end puck movers joining the team soon he could help balance them out if he develops into a NHLer.

Yeah I like O'Rourke as well, and I think he's somewhat underrated in many draft rankings in a similar manner that Timmins was underrated due to being a bit of a jack-of-all-trades master-of-none.

Byram and Girard will hold down the LHD positions on the top two pairings with Graves on the 3rd pairing. But eventually capspace will become a premium and Graves will likely price himself out from a 3rd pairing role, at which stage we're going to need some cheap bottom-pairing Dmen to fill out the roster at LHD. With that in mind, drafting a solid all-around Dman like O'Rourke who has top 4 ceiling and a game that suits a bottom pairing role would be pretty sensible.

 

[PAZ]

I still think Avs should see who potential falls on their list and grab that player. I think we're in a position where we can take a bit more risk since we don't really need bottom 6 or high-end talent anymore (well perhaps a very good 2nd line winger is needed to increase depth). If we were to draft on need, then I agree with the premise that others have said on here that a right-handed defence should be our pick. Players like Grans and Niemela fit that bill and should be around where Avs should draft. I just would be disappointed to draft one of these lads over the likes of Gunler, Mysak, or Bourque for that matter. This is still a very good and heavily invested offensive draft with a lot of good forwards available. I say we got our defender in Byram and we should go for some riskier high upside offence. Then potentially target someone like Kuznetsov, Viro, Sebrango, Phillips, or Nickl in the third round.


I didn't want to include some of the future drafts because they're still quite young and evolving, but Chiarelli is quite right in his analysis. Avs didn't exactly "reach" for Kaut, but him along with Smith, Foudy, and O'Brien were players that their respected teams liked which allowed players like Merkley, Miller, and Veleno fall further than they should've.

Outside of O'Brien, I don't think any of Veleno, Miller, or Merkley have done enough to show that they deserve to be picked higher than Kaut, Smith, or Foudy. At the end of the day being able to pick up NHL talent is important - and if scouts don't believe high upside players like Veleno, Miller, or Merkley will actually reach their potential it's understandable why they get passed up. Based off what Kaut showed up here, I don't think we made the wrong pick as Kaut will be a fantastic bottom 6 addition (assuming he continues to progress).

But with that being said, I would be 100% be on board to pick a player that falls with high upside potential this draft.

 

[Pokecheque]

Geez, did the Flyboys strike gold in the draft again? It's amazing how well they do. If they didn't keep trading them away they'd probably have a couple more Cups at least.

 

[Balthazar]

Top 10 in the black book...no Drysdale while they have Sanderson at #5. Also Jarvis at #7? Interesting.

1. Lafreniere
2. Stutzle
3. Byfield
4. Perfetti
5. Sanderson
6. Quinn
7. Jarvis
8. Raymond
9. Rossi
10. Holtz

 

[Chiarelli]

To all the real OG’s who’s going 4 in this draft? What does Detroit need? Who would you pick at 4 in a vacuum no organizational needs?

 

[Avsboy]

Lots of posters don't like Drysdale

 

[Balthazar]

To all the real OG’s who’s going 4 in this draft? What does Detroit need? Who would you pick at 4 in a vacuum no organizational needs?

I think they pick Jake Sanderson (LD) to eventually play with Seider (RD).

 

[McMetal]

I still think they trade with LA to take Stutzle. It makes too much sense. The Kings are deep at forward and really need high end D. Picking up an asset to move back and have their pick of Drysdale or Sanderson would be a great deal for both teams.

 

[Balthazar]

I still think they trade with LA to take Stutzle. It makes too much sense. The Kings are deep at forward and really need high end D. Picking up an asset to move back and have their pick of Drysdale or Sanderson would be a great deal for both teams.

Yep, Kings would get to pick the best D at #4...win win.

I really thought it would happen after hearing that Blake thinks that there are 4 players in that tier at #2. They need a dman, he wanted a dman, he didn't bother to interview Byfield pre-lottery...that's a lot of smoke. As for Yzerman, some people think he had Stutzle at #1 so if he gets the chance to get him he'd make a move. So that's a perfect fit right?

But the thing is, no one talks about that possibility anywhere (and I read/listen a lot of draft stuff these days). Like 70% of the experts think they get Stutzle and the others think Byfield.

The Kings board is like 90%+ Byfield at the moment...they have now convinced themselves that he's better than Laf.

 

[missionAvs]

Drysdale to Detroit doesn't make sense to me, given that they have Seider and Hronek already.

Imo Stutzle is the right pick for LA, as he's arguably better than Byfield and they also have Turcotte, Vilardi, Kupari at C. Turcotte/Stutzle would be fun to watch.

I see it playing out something like this:

1. Lafreniere
2. Stutzle (LA)
3. Byfield (OTT)
4. Rossi (DET)
5. Drysdale (OTT)
6. Raymond (ANA)
7. Perfetti (NJ)
8. Sanderson (BUF)

Holy cow what a draft for Ottawa this would be.

 

[Hasbro]

I like Ryan O’Rourke just figuring in 3 years when the big check comes due he can get plugged in as the #5 defenseman and kill penalties on an ELC.

 

[Richard88]

I like Ryan O’Rourke just figuring in 3 years when the big check comes due he can get plugged in as the #5 defenseman and kill penalties on an ELC.

I agree. With Byram getting paid and Graves probably pricing himself out of a 3rd pairing role right around that time as well it would be great to have a solid LHD prospect ready to plug into the team on an ELC.

O'Rourke looks like the perfect fit for us if we're looking for a LHD in the late 1st. He's basically a left-handed version of Timmins as an all-situations two-way Dman with good character and leadership, and there's not a lot not to like about him. Some say that he's the 3rd best Dman in the draft, but he'll probably fall a bit because of being a so-called "jack of all trades master of none".

 

[Hasbro]

I agree. With Byram getting paid and Graves probably pricing himself out of a 3rd pairing role right around that time as well it would be great to have a solid LHD prospect ready to plug into the team on an ELC.

O'Rourke looks like the perfect fit for us if we're looking for a LHD in the late 1st. He's basically a left-handed version of Timmins as an all-situations two-wa.

My dream is getting an early 2nd for Zadarov, using that on O’Rourke and the 1st on one of the Germans.