Prospect Info: The 2019 Entry NHL Draft Thread - Part II

[cgf]

We dont have a #1 or even a top pairing guy yet. Some guys in our pipeline can grow into those roles but I think we should still consider taking a D if they have high end potential.

True, but we could be able to roll three quality pairings. Which is enough to win the cup if paired with the elite firepower that we are well on our way towards assembling if we can put together a second scoring line will the bottle kids are still at the height of their powers.

If we can’t add a quality 1b C or an elite winger, to anchor the second line, then yeah; a top tier #1 on the blueline is still a need. But it’s an either/or situation not a situation where we need both to even stand a chance.

 

[Pokecheque]

They can't roll out three quality pairings so long as EJ and Sammy are still struggling. EJ is starting to come around, Sammy just seems lost right now. I think he's massively overworked. The team desperately needs Z back.

I am assuming since Graves made one huge error last night he's dunzo and it's Nemeth back in. Barbs was predictably horrid in his return but what can ya do.

 

[avsfan09]

True, but we could be able to roll three quality pairings. Which is enough to win the cup if paired with the elite firepower that we are well on our way towards assembling if we can put together a second scoring line will the bottle kids are still at the height of their powers.

If we can’t add a quality 1b C or an elite winger, to anchor the second line, then yeah; a top tier #1 on the blueline is still a need. But it’s an either/or situation not a situation where we need both to even stand a chance.

I'm all for taking a forward with the Ottawa pick. But the Avs pick if its top ten and Byram is around we definitely should take him.

 

[cgf]

I'm all for taking a forward with the Ottawa pick. But the Avs pick if its top ten and Byram is around we definitely should take him.

Depends on what else we could get with that pick. If our season ends up being shitty enough to warrant a top 10 pick then we may need more immediate help...and that top 10 pick (if we have it) + Jost/Timmins could be the kind of package that gets us someone like Zibanejad; who could help us right away while also helping us maximize the development of whomever we get with the Ottawa pick.

But that also depends on how we get to that top 10 pick...if the blueliners implode further, Girard has a season ender, and Jost-Jimmothy finish the season on a 25+ game point streak; that equation shifts again.

 

[cgf]

They can't roll out three quality pairings so long as EJ and Sammy are still struggling. EJ is starting to come around, Sammy just seems lost right now. I think he's massively overworked. The team desperately needs Z back.

I am assuming since Graves made one huge error last night he's dunzo and it's Nemeth back in. Barbs was predictably horrid in his return but what can ya do.

We need Makar out there as well as a healthy Zads & clicking Samwise-Kondor; but we could have all that by the postseason next year...and with Meloche & Timmins in the pipeline, we could have better depth behind them than the Graves / Nemeth / Barberio’s of the world to hold us through injuries & bolster us when EJ / Cole get worn down.

Whereas I don’t think we have even a potential cup caliber scoring line right now, much less the cover that Timms n Mel give us towards being able to roll our blueliners. The Ottawa pick could give us that potential 2nd cup caliber line, but we wouldn’t have the cover we have on the blueline, there would be more uncertainty/unprovenness, and they’d be further away from potentially filling that role than our blueliners.

So we obviously aren’t there now, but the need for top talent up front seems much more pressing.

 

[avsfan09]

Depends on what else we could get with that pick. If our season ends up being shorty enough to warrant a top 10 pick then we may need more immediate help...and that top 10 pick (if we have it) + Jost/Timmins could be the kind of package that gets us someone like Zibanejad; who could help us right away while also helping us maximize the development of whomever we get with the Ottawa pick.

But that also depends on how we get to that top 10 pick...if the blueliners implode further, Girard has a season ender, and Jost-Jimmothy finish the season on a 25+ game point streak; that equation shifts again.

I'd rather keep this pick and trade futures from the coming years. Let's load one more year and than we have a prospect that very well could make an impact for us in contention seasons. Our future firsts will be hopefully more long term prospects so id rather trade them but another top 10 pick could supplement our core just that little extra that makes cup contenders and still come in within our contention window.

 

[cgf]

I'd rather keep this pick and trade futures from the coming years. Let's load one more year and than we have a prospect that very well could make an impact for us in contention seasons. Our future firsts will be hopefully more long term prospects but another top 10 pick could supplement our core just that little extra that makes cup contenders.

Unless we get really lucky, that 2019 pick won’t end up a difference maker before the 2021-2022 (draft+3) season. Plus a top 10 pick on draft day is always much better bait than a future 1st from a bubble team on the rise...and I only want to touch our asset surplus for an option that’s worth it; which is more likely to require that more premium centerpiece.

If it came down to 2019 top 10 pick + A-future + B-future vs 2020 1st + A-future + A-future + B-future, that might change the calculus...but I lean towards keeping the kids who already have some polish...especially if we are keeping the Ottawa pick.

 

[Balthazar]

The Avs really don't have any idea how to draft or develop goalies

Avs have never drafted someone who's seen pre-draft as a future franchise goalie like Carey Price, Andrei Vasilevskiy or Spencer Knight. We always go for long term projects and then wonder why it's not working.

 

[S E P H]

Good list. Hughes(of course) and Podkolzin too high. Honka WAAAY too high.

I quite like Honka, he's far from perfect, but he's way better than his brother. Much more calmer with and without the puck and can make plays happen.

Arthur Kaliyev has every shot, a beautiful release, and is very accurate. Why so low?

All you described was his shot, he is not a very good skater and his play away from the puck is a disaster. He's a wildcard for a team who has a lot of picks and can fail on a couple boom/bust prospects.

 

[Iracundia]

I quite like Honka, he's far from perfect, but he's way better than his brother. Much more calmer with and without the puck and can make plays happen.

All you described was his shot, he is not a very good skater and his play away from the puck is a disaster. He's a wildcard for a team who has a lot of picks and can fail on a couple boom/bust prospects.

True but those are some of the more easily correctable issues too. I picture him playing with a defensively sound player like Bowers or Kaut; kinda like what Landy does for the top line. But I won't lie, I really want a player who can shoot like that. This team needs an elite shooter like that. But I agree, he is a somewhat of a luxury pick, and I was only interested in drafting him if we landed Hughes or Kakko.

 

[Balthazar]

I can't link the article for some reason but here's a screenshot of it. It's in French but I'm sure you'll understand the last 2 sentences.

 

[McMetal]

Avs have never drafted someone who's seen pre-draft as a future franchise goalie like Carey Price, Andrei Vasilevskiy or Spencer Knight. We always go for long term projects and then wonder why it's not working.

That's not the only way to get a franchise goalie though. Most starters in the league, even good ones, were picked in the 3rd round or later. And some first round goalies have busted, so it isn't as though picking a goalie in the first is "problem solved".

 

[S E P H]

Comparable is Carey Price? That is just weak writing there, he has the same potential as John Gibson for me, which is why I mentioned him as JG 2.0 last week. Don't get me wrong because Gibson is a Vezina calibre goaler, but he isn't quite on Prices' level.

Avs are 15th currently with their own pick and that's a spot where I would absolutely take him in. It would either be him or Turcotte around there for me.

That's not the only way to get a franchise goalie though. Most starters in the league, even good ones, were picked in the 3rd round or later. And some first round goalies have busted, so it isn't as though picking a goalie in the first is "problem solved".

Actually, I thought the same way, however @Gigantor The Goalie posted some stats that similar to players, majority of goalers (either starter or backup) were picked within the first three rounds of the draft. Of course on the other end of the spectrum, goalers are wildcards and that's why you tend to find more NHLers in later rounds compared to forwards or defenders. Some goaler might've been too raw like we saw with Lundqvist, others are late bloomers like with Tim Thomas, some are top prospects such as Vas, Price, and Gibson, and some eventually level out after juniors like we see with a ton such as Spencer Martin or Calvin Pickard.

The one I continue to be on the fence on is DiPietro because I see all the makings of an NHL calibre goaler in him, but I also see some holes he's going to have to overcome. He was superb for Canada in the WJC, but also didn't seem unbeatable if that makes sense. And I am not sure he's on Saros level of talent either, very few are though.

 

[Balthazar]

Comparable is Carey Price? That is just weak writing there, he has the same potential as John Gibson for me, which is why I mentioned him as JG 2.0 last week. Don't get me wrong because Gibson is a Vezina calibre goaler, but he isn't quite on Prices' level.

I had seen Price's name mentioned before when talking about Knight. They have a similar physique/style. Also Price was picked 5OA but in the final rankings on his draft year he was around 13th...which is pretty much where Knight is at the moment. It doesn't mean much but at the same age I'd say they are probably at around the same level.

 

[Balthazar]

That's not the only way to get a franchise goalie though. Most starters in the league, even good ones, were picked in the 3rd round or later. And some first round goalies have busted, so it isn't as though picking a goalie in the first is "problem solved".

That's the "PK Subban was drafted in the 2nd round, therefore you can pick elite dmen in the 2nd round" argument.

 

[henchman21]

I get that Knight is a pick for 4-6 years down the line, but he is the best goalie prospect out there right now... and likely the best one in the 18/19/20 draft grouping. Wallstedt looks generational in 2021, but that is a pretty long ways out to even try to plan for. Knight gets that goalie now to where you can hope he is the guy for a 2nd window or the next re-tool.

 

[S E P H]

I had seen Price's name mentioned before when talking about Knight. They have a similar physique/style. Also Price was picked 5OA but in the final rankings on his draft year he was around 13th...which is pretty much where Knight is at the moment. It doesn't mean much but at the same age I'd say they are probably at around the same level.

I suggest it is weak writing because a huge part of Price game is his stickhandling and Knight doesn't really have a strength in that. Playing styles and talent I see Gibson, Price definitely had more hype, but I remember reading that some teams had him as a top 5-8 prospect. I think THN had him in the top 5 of their rankings or had an article describing that he was the best goaler prospect in a very long time. Carey posted absurd junior stats, came out of the CHL, and posted absurd AHL stats getting a lot of NHL action during his second pro season. Injuries have slowed him down the past couple of seasons, but he is the best goaler in the league easily when he's on his game considering all the weapons he possesses.

Knight doesn't have that type of potential and that's okay, he is still definitely one of the best goaler prospects in the past couple of drafts. My argument isn't that Spencer is bad, but that he won't be the best goaler in the NHL - that's too high of pedestal to put any prospect on, especially a goaler. We might all be entirely wrong and Knight is Jack Campbell 2.0, it has happened in the past. Remember that the Blues were getting Mikka Kiprusoff 2.0 when they traded for Hannu Toivanen?

 

[McMetal]

That's the "PK Subban was drafted in the 2nd round, therefore you can pick elite dmen in the 2nd round" argument.

Goalies are different from skaters though, they're so hard to project because they're usually so far from being pro ready. It's not as simple as just picking the top rated goalie prospect and walking off into the sunset. Pickard was a top rated prospect in his draft, I'll remind you, and look how that worked out. Annunen was highly ranked in hishdraft class, too, we just have to wait and see. There are just too many variables to definitively project a goalie prospect, which is why so few of them get taken in the first round nowadays.

Now I'm not opposed to picking Knight if we're in the right range, but to say that we need to pick him because of our goalie woes now is shortsighted. He'd barely be on the team in time for MacK's contract to expire.

 

[cgf]

Comparable is Carey Price? That is just weak writing there, he has the same potential as John Gibson for me, which is why I mentioned him as JG 2.0 last week. Don't get me wrong because Gibson is a Vezina calibre goaler, but he isn't quite on Prices' level.

Avs are 15th currently with their own pick and that's a spot where I would absolutely take him in. It would either be him or Turcotte around there for me.

Actually, I thought the same way, however @Gigantor The Goalie posted some stats that similar to players, majority of goalers (either starter or backup) were picked within the first three rounds of the draft. Of course on the other end of the spectrum, goalers are wildcards and that's why you tend to find more NHLers in later rounds compared to forwards or defenders. Some goaler might've been too raw like we saw with Lundqvist, others are late bloomers like with Tim Thomas, some are top prospects such as Vas, Price, and Gibson, and some eventually level out after juniors like we see with a ton such as Spencer Martin or Calvin Pickard.

The one I continue to be on the fence on is DiPietro because I see all the makings of an NHL calibre goaler in him, but I also see some holes he's going to have to overcome. He was superb for Canada in the WJC, but also didn't seem unbeatable if that makes sense. And I am not sure he's on Saros level of talent either, very few are though.

FWIW Gibson has quietly been 2014-Varlamov’ing for a couple of seasons now.

If I was guaranteed a Gibson in 3-4 years I’d spend the pick on him on roll the dice on Frank stepping up or finding a satisfactory stop gap for the next 4-5 years, but that’s no guarantee with our track record of pre-NHL goalie development so it’s far from a no-brainer to me. And depending on what else we could get with our pick, may not be the best allocation of resources

I get that Knight is a pick for 4-6 years down the line, but he is the best goalie prospect out there right now... and likely the best one in the 18/19/20 draft grouping. Wallstedt looks generational in 2021, but that is a pretty long ways out to even try to plan for. Knight gets that goalie now to where you can hope he is the guy for a 2nd window or the next re-tool.

That’s a good point, but I’d still have to know what else we can get with our pick. If it’s Turcotte or if trading it + Timms/Jost + Morrison could land us Zibby, I’d rather focus on this first window and hope we strike on enough of our high upside longterm-plays to set us up for the re-tool/2nd window.

That said, there’s still so many variables that I could be utterly thrilled to draft him at our pick, say if we were granted Hughes & flipped a later pick for Stone’s rights because we’d heard good news from his agent.

 

[Balthazar]

I get that Knight is a pick for 4-6 years down the line, but he is the best goalie prospect out there right now... and likely the best one in the 18/19/20 draft grouping. Wallstedt looks generational in 2021, but that is a pretty long ways out to even try to plan for. Knight gets that goalie now to where you can hope he is the guy for a 2nd window or the next re-tool.

I say even if he takes the full 6 years to become dominant in the NHL that's better than almost all of our previous picks in that range (#11-#20). We shouldn't be worried because goalies take time, any player we pick there will take time, if he develops at all.

Knight doesn't have that type of potential and that's okay, he is still definitely one of the best goaler prospects in the past couple of drafts. My argument isn't that Spencer is bad, but that he won't be the best goaler in the NHL - that's too high of pedestal to put any prospect on, especially a goaler. We might all be entirely wrong and Knight is Jack Campbell 2.0, it has happened in the past. Remember that the Blues were getting Mikka Kiprusoff 2.0 when they traded for Hannu Toivanen?

Yes but that's true for every single prospect.

 

[henchman21]

Goalies are different from skaters though, they're so hard to project because they're usually so far from being pro ready. It's not as simple as just picking the top rated goalie prospect and walking off into the sunset. Pickard was a top rated prospect in his draft, I'll remind you, and look how that worked out. Annunen was highly ranked in hishdraft class, too, we just have to wait and see. There are just too many variables to definitively project a goalie prospect, which is why so few of them get taken in the first round nowadays.

Now I'm not opposed to picking Knight if we're in the right range, but to say that we need to pick him because of our goalie woes now is shortsighted. He'd barely be on the team in time for MacK's contract to expire.

The issue is less about them busting more or less than skaters, but if goalies bust... then they are backups or never make the NHL. If a skater busts, he's still being a 3rd/4th liner or pairing means they are visible more consistently and the available roster spots gives more room for error.

 

[S E P H]

FWIW Gibson has quietly been 2014-Varlamov’ing for a couple of seasons now.

If I was guaranteed a Gibson in 3-4 years I’d spend the pick on him on roll the dice on Frank stepping up or finding a satisfactory stop gap for the next 4-5 years, but that’s no guarantee with our track record of pre-NHL goalie development so it’s far from a no-brainer to me. And depending on what else we could get with our pick, may not be the best allocation of resources

Absolutely agreed with everything. Especially considering that Avs do not even have a scout they have enough faith in for goalers, there is a high percentage that we probably pass on him. Until it actually happens, I would be shocked to see us pick one in the top 40 or so picks. However, if there is a goaler who would change all of that, it would be Knight (just with the hype and where the Avs are at currently in draft placement).

 

[Balthazar]

Absolutely agreed with everything. Especially considering that Avs do not even have a scout they have enough faith in for goalers, there is a high percentage that we probably pass on him. Until it actually happens, I would be shocked to see us pick one in the top 40 or so picks. However, if there is a goaler who would change all of that, it would be Knight (just with the hype and where the Avs are at currently in draft placement).

Also the fact that we have two 1st rounders helps. If you have only one you might hesitate more to spend it on a goalie, but when you have two...

That said, unfortunately I don't think the Avs will draft Knight even if he's available. They made their "big" push for goalies last year with Annunen and Grubs.

 

[henchman21]

FTR I really don't think Hepple would use a 1st on a goalie... in his own mind they have hacked the draft with Euro goalies...

 

[cgf]

Also the fact that we have two 1st rounders helps. If you have only one you might hesitate more to spend it on a goalie, but when you have two...

That said, unfortunately I don't think the Avs will draft Knight even if he's available. They made their "big" push for goalies last year with Annunen and Grubs.

Not to mention the best goalie in the KHL, Francouz.

FTR I really don't think Hepple would use a 1st on a goalie... in his own mind they have hacked the draft with Euro goalies...

*fingers crossed* on Shmakov ever learning to goalie, it is!