Prospect Info: The 2019 Entry NHL Draft Thread - Part II

[UncleRisto]

FTR I really don't think Hepple would use a 1st on a goalie... in his own mind they have hacked the draft with Euro goalies...

"Alright Alan, what do you have on goalies?"

"Listen to this, Joe. A nineteen year old, he's got good size, we got his rights for four years and he's got his own crease in the second tier juniors in Bulgaria. I think he's gone by the third."

 

[cgf]

FTR I really don't think Hepple would use a 1st on a goalie... in his own mind they have hacked the draft with Euro goalies...

"Alright Alan, what do you have on goalies?"

"Listen to this, Joe. A nineteen year old, he's got good size, we got his rights for four years and he's got his own crease in the Mexican second tier. I think he's gone by the third."

And this is why Finns can not be trusted with navigating...

 

[UncleRisto]

And this is why Finns can not be trusted with navigating...

I already changed it to reflect Hepple's actual board.

 

[Balthazar]

Goalies are different from skaters though, they're so hard to project because they're usually so far from being pro ready. It's not as simple as just picking the top rated goalie prospect and walking off into the sunset. Pickard was a top rated prospect in his draft, I'll remind you, and look how that worked out. Annunen was highly ranked in hishdraft class, too, we just have to wait and see. There are just too many variables to definitively project a goalie prospect, which is why so few of them get taken in the first round nowadays.

Now I'm not opposed to picking Knight if we're in the right range, but to say that we need to pick him because of our goalie woes now is shortsighted. He'd barely be on the team in time for MacK's contract to expire.

There's a BIG gap between Knight and pre-draft Pickard or Annunen though.

Of course you don't draft a goalie to solve the current issues, but if you never draft a solid starter you'll more than likely always have a problem. If Knight becomes a franchise goalie like he projects to, he can stay with the team for maybe 10+ years. That's a huge asset for a franchise.

 

[Pacman33]

As excited as i would be with knight, i know theres basically zero chance we actually would take him

 

[cgf]

There's a BIG gap between Knight and pre-draft Pickard or Annunen though.

Of course you don't draft a goalie to solve the current issues, but if you never draft a solid starter you'll more than likely always have a problem. If Knight becomes a franchise goalie like he projects to, he can stay with the team for maybe 10+ years. That's a huge asset for a franchise.

Eh, just cause some teams have failed to fill the position for long periods of time doesn't mean that plenty of others haven't bounced from ~5 year solution to ~5 year solution successfully. Especially with excellent skaters in front of them. You're less likely to land a decade+ vezina-caliber guy in FA or trade, but capable starters are moved for bareable prices in trade or on the FA market often enough...and I'm still curious to see if Frank can't be just such a ~5 year solution for us, if we gave him a run as the starter to get settled in & show his stuff.

 

[Balthazar]

List of last 7 SC winning goalies:

Holtby - Drafted by WAS
Murray/Fleury - Both drafted by PIT
Crawford x2 - Drafted by CHI
Quick x2 - Drafted by LA

Interesting.

 

[cgf]

List of last 7 SC winning goalies:

Holtby - Drafted by WAS
Murray/Fleury - Both drafted by PIT
Crawford x2 - Drafted by CHI
Quick x2 - Drafted by LA

Interesting.

Huh, that is interesting. Feels anomalous, but that's not a negligible list.

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

List of last 7 SC winning goalies:

Holtby - Drafted by WAS
Murray/Fleury - Both drafted by PIT
Crawford x2 - Drafted by CHI
Quick x2 - Drafted by LA

Interesting.

One of the best goaltenders ever, traded. Patrick Roy. It's possible both ways.

Personally, I don't rate Crawford that high. He just had great team in front of him.

 

[Balthazar]

One of the best goaltenders ever, traded. Patrick Roy. It's possible both ways.

Hmm.

 

[cgf]

One of the best goaltenders ever, traded. Patrick Roy. It's possible both ways.

Personally, I don't rate Crawford that high. He just had great team in front of him.

I thought so at first to, but watching those teams made it clear that he was a key part of those last 2 cups...right there with Keith, Cap'n Serious and the rapist. He was regularly standing on his head to cover up for their waning or inconsistent depth...especially in the later years when their top 4 start getting beaten down by time, or when the team was flat & really needed him to bail them out.

There's a reason why they were still a playoff team until he imploded & there were series along the way to those cups that they wouldn't even have been in position to pull out of their asses if Crow hadn't stood on his head in key moments earlier.

 

[Iceberg]

Goalies are different from skaters though, they're so hard to project because they're usually so far from being pro ready. It's not as simple as just picking the top rated goalie prospect and walking off into the sunset. Pickard was a top rated prospect in his draft, I'll remind you, and look how that worked out. Annunen was highly ranked in hishdraft class, too, we just have to wait and see. There are just too many variables to definitively project a goalie prospect, which is why so few of them get taken in the first round nowadays.

Now I'm not opposed to picking Knight if we're in the right range, but to say that we need to pick him because of our goalie woes now is shortsighted. He'd barely be on the team in time for MacK's contract to expire.

Shortsighted is to think our window will close when MacK current deal expires.

 

[cgf]

Shortsighted is to think our window will close when MacK current deal expires.

Nice to see that having foresight is shortsighted now

 

[Iceberg]

Nice to see that having foresight is shortsighted now

Nah, making draft decisions in 2019 assuming our windown (the one that hasn't even opend yet) will close in 2023 is shorsighted.

 

[cgf]

Nah, making draft decisions in 2019 assuming our windown (the one that hasn't even opend yet) will close in 2023 is shorsighted.

You’re gunna have a tough time convincing me that planning for the future is shortsighted.

 

[Iceberg]

You’re gunna have a tough time convincing me that planning for the future is shortsighted.

You're gunna have a tough time convincing me that there is no future beyond 2023.

 

[The Abusement Park]

You're gunna have a tough time convincing me that there is no future beyond 2023.

Maybe saying that our window is over after Macks contract is slightly extreme, but our best shot at a cup is the next 3/4 years.

 

[Iceberg]

Maybe saying that our window is over after Macks contract is slightly extreme, but our best shot at a cup is the next 3/4 years.

It could very well be, especially if Makar doesn't ever become a #1 D... but if Makar does become a first pairing D plus if we get one of Hughes/Kakko it could also be just the begining of an even better window.

And to eventually pass on a hot prospect with a mid round pick because he may not be ready in two years is shortsighted (and i'm being polite here).

 

[The Abusement Park]

It could very well be, especially if Makar doesn't ever become a #1 D... but if Makar does become a first pairing D plus if we get one of Hughes/Kakko it could also be just the begining of an even better window.

And to eventually pass on a hot prospect with a mid round pick because he may not be ready in two years is shortsighted (and i'm being polite here).

I mean if you can get a 1C that’s 26 or so for the Ott pick(assuming it isn’t 1-5) than I’d say explore that option for sure.

 

[cgf]

You're gunna have a tough time convincing me that there is no future beyond 2023.

Why would I try to convince you of something I have never thought or said? Just because our 1st window will close around then doesn’t mean there can’t be a second window.

It could very well be, especially if Makar doesn't ever become a #1 D... but if Makar does become a first pairing D plus if we get one of Hughes/Kakko it could also be just the begining of an even better window.

And to eventually pass on a hot prospect with a mid round pick because he may not be ready in two years is shortsighted (and i'm being polite here).

And if they get rid of the cap our window doesn’t ever need to end!

 

[Iceberg]

Why would I try to convince you of something I have never thought or said? Just because our 1st window will close around then doesn’t mean there can’t be a second window.

Well, how are you planning for the future while trading a 1st round pick because it won't help you win a Stanley Cup by 2023? It feels like you are not putting too much faith on a second window.

And if they get rid of the cap our window doesn’t ever need to end!

You are getting way ahead, we don't know what the cap will be in 2023. We could even have Rantanen on a bargain deal by then.

And if you are worried about the cap ending our window, wouldn't a hot prospect on an ELC help extend it?

 

[The Abusement Park]

Well, how are you planning for the future while trading a 1st round pick because it won't help you win a Stanley Cup by 2023? It feels like you are not putting too much faith on a second window.

Because most teams don’t get a 2nd window.

 

[cgf]

Well, how are you planning for the future while trading a 1st round pick because it won't help you win a Stanley Cup by 2023? It feels like you are not putting too much faith on a second window.



You are getting way ahead, we don't know what the cap will be in 2023. We could even have Rantanen on a bargain deal by then.

And if you are worried about the cap ending our window, wouldn't a hot prospect on an ELC help extend it?

You can't make too firm of plans on that second window until we know how this window will be opened...i.e. if we get Hughes, can kidnap Stone, & Makar is a norris candidate as a rookie; then how much & what kind of supporting talent we'll need during the 2nd window, as well as what sort of tools we'll have left over to address it will be very different than if Makar struggles to be any better than Barrie & Girard, and we trade the ottawa pick++ for Larkin after the lotto gods screw us, and can do no better than a Silverberg-type in FA...and much of the preparation for a 2nd window can't be done before the 1st window has opened; as NHL teams just don't trade picks that far in advance.

But we can adopt certain strategies that favor the opening of a 2nd window by a) having an initial window in the first place, with which to attract talent & convince MacKinnon to even sign a next-contract with us; b) selling off pieces that we won't be able to afford over the coming years; c) taking advantage of our improving organizational depth to focus our drafting on high-upside long-term projects...of whom a few may even deliver...that we won't have to rush into the league ASAFP; d) moving back for future picks when there's no one you're in love with & using our pick surplus to upgrade picks into that top 40 range where you're much more likely to find contributers...at least in the latter stages of window 1, when we're starting to really get ready for the Retool...and; e) by only dipping into our asset-surplus for real long term solutions...aka unless we're ready to win the cup, motherf*** a rental, only touch that surplus to roll it over into even more futures, for a legit 1st liner, #1 blueliner, or top tier goalie...and ideally only for guys who could be a part of both window 1 & window 2.

If Mikko gives us a bargain & signs for something that begins with a 9, that'd help, but we're still going to be spending at least 20M on he & Nathan's next contracts unless things go horribly wrong for us.



And unfortunately, a 2019 draftee...even if they don't make the NHL until their draft+2 season...will no longer be on their ELC in 2023-2024, when MacK's new deal will kick in. So that Ottawa pick -- assuming it doesn't bust -- is actually going to make the cap crunch trickier, rather than easing it, by adding another RFA that will hopefully require a big extension. So the Ottawa pick could be a huge part of windows-1 & -2, but it's unlikely to make the retool easier.

 

[Iceberg]

You can't make too firm of plans on that second window until we know how this window will be opened...i.e. if we get Hughes, can kidnap Stone, & Makar is a norris candidate as a rookie; then how much & what kind of supporting talent we'll need during the 2nd window, as well as what sort of tools we'll have left over to address it will be very different than if Makar struggles to be any better than Barrie & Girard, and we trade the ottawa pick++ for Larkin after the lotto gods screw us, and can do no better than a Silverberg-type in FA...and much of the preparation for a 2nd window can't be done before the 1st window has opened; as NHL teams just don't trade picks that far in advance.

But we can adopt certain strategies that favor the opening of a 2nd window by a) having an initial window in the first place, with which to attract talent & convince MacKinnon to even sign a next-contract with us; b) selling off pieces that we won't be able to afford over the coming years; c) taking advantage of our improving organizational depth to focus our drafting on high-upside long-term projects...of whom a few may even deliver...that we won't have to rush into the league ASAFP; d) moving back for future picks when there's no one you're in love with & using our pick surplus to upgrade picks into that top 40 range where you're much more likely to find contributers...at least in the latter stages of window 1, when we're starting to really get ready for the Retool...and; e) by only dipping into our asset-surplus for real long term solutions...aka unless we're ready to win the cup, mother**** a rental, only touch that surplus to roll it over into even more futures, for a legit 1st liner, #1 blueliner, or top tier goalie...and ideally only for guys who could be a part of both window 1 & window 2.

If Mikko gives us a bargain & signs for something that begins with a 9, that'd help, but we're still going to be spending at least 20M on he & Nathan's next contracts unless things go horribly wrong for us.



And unfortunately, a 2019 draftee...even if they don't make the NHL until their draft+2 season...will no longer be on their ELC in 2023-2024, when MacK's new deal will kick in. So that Ottawa pick -- assuming it doesn't bust -- is actually going to make the cap crunch trickier, rather than easing it, by adding another RFA that will hopefully require a big extension. So the Ottawa pick could be a huge part of windows-1 & -2, but it's unlikely to make the retool easier.

I was gonna read it, but will just wait for the movie.

 

[Iceberg]

Because most teams don’t get a 2nd window.

But the 2nd window will most likely be the 1st window.