Starting Goalie

[The Madrigal]

No but that .915 is Bernier HIGH point the last 3 years. So why would we expect higher?

He also has a .915 save percentage for his entire career which you either unaware of or just conveniently left out of the equation.

There IS a difference.

Yes there IS indeed, Bernier has a career save percentage four points higher than Mason.

 

[Sombastate]

He also has a .915 save percentage for his entire career which you either unaware of or just conveniently left out of the equation.

Yes there IS indeed, Bernier has a career save percentage four points higher than Mason.

Yes. One played on better teams (leafs excluded) with a smaller workload.

The only way to really compare them is their recent years, but that wouldn't fit your narrative.

What also wont fit your narrative is that the last 4 years, he's played behind one of the worst defenses in the league.

What also wont fit your narrative is that one was thrust into action WELL before goalies mature and had obvious and understandable growing pains while one is still a back up goalie after the age of maturation.

But you're right.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Yes. One played on better teams (leafs excluded) with a smaller workload.

The only way to really compare them is their recent years, but that wouldn't fit your narrative.

What also wont fit your narrative is that the last 4 years, he's played behind one of the worst defenses in the league.

What also wont fit your narrative is that one was thrust into action WELL before goalies mature and had obvious and understandable growing pains while one is still a back up goalie after the age of maturation.

But you're right.

Take the last 4 seasons, which includes the 4 years Mason was with the Flyers full-time.

Mason: 224 games, .917 sv%
Bernier: 190 games, .915 sv%

2013/14: Flyers 42-30-2, lose rd 1; Leafs 38-36-4, miss playoffs
2014/15: Flyers 33-31-7, miss playoffs; Leafs 30-44-3, miss playoffs
2015/16: Flyers 41-27-6, lose rd 1; Leafs 29-42-5, miss playoffs
2016/17: Flyers 39-33-5, miss playoffs; Ducks 46-23-10, lose rd 3

You're talking about almost identical save percentages over the last 4 seasons, and Bernier playing on worse teams than Mason in 3/4 seasons.

 

[The Madrigal]

Yes. One played on better teams (leafs excluded) with a smaller workload.

If you are going to attack someone at least bring some factual information to the table. Bernier hasn't played on a better team than Mason in years minus this past season. The Flyers teams Mason was on for the three years prior to 2016-2017 were much better than the Leafs teams Bernier played on. It's also worth noting that the one year that Bernier played on a better team his save percentage was higher than Mason's to the tune of .914 to .908.

The only way to really compare them is their recent years, but that wouldn't fit your narrative.

Yeah, that's a real fitting comparison and you are trying to accuse me of skewing the facts that fit my "narrative." If you think Bernier's numbers on those Leafs teams the last couple of years he was there are a fair indicator of his ability than let's look at Mason's numbers from his time in Columbus.

What also wont fit your narrative is that the last 4 years, he's played behind one of the worst defenses in the league.

Still FAR better than those Toronto teams Bernier was playing behind, especially the last two years he was there.

What also wont fit your narrative is that one was thrust into action WELL before goalies mature and had obvious and understandable growing pains while one is still a back up goalie after the age of maturation.

Bernier was also hung out to dry for two years trying to bail out a team who had one of the top 5 worst records in the league in back to back seasons. You see how easy it is to do that. There is a reason for everything and it works both ways.

Looking at the last few years is something that favors Mason since other than this past season he has played on much better teams than Bernier. There isn't a way to just pick and choose stats for either guy which isn't going to skew things one direction or the other. You accusing me of doing that and then picking and choosing for yourself which stats matter is completely hypocritical especially since my message all along has been to look at their career in their totality.

At the end of the day Bernier is 28 years old and has played in 252 career NHL games and has a career save percentage of .915 while Steve Mason is 29 and has played in 463 NHL games with a career save percentage of .911. Neither guy proven themselves to be in a tier which is significantly higher or lower than the other. I would prefer Mason but there isn't a huge difference and anyone arguing there is for either side is fighting quite an up hill battle.

 

[The Madrigal]

Take the last 4 seasons, which includes the 4 years Mason was with the Flyers full-time.

Mason: 224 games, .917 sv%
Bernier: 190 games, .915 sv%

2013/14: Flyers 42-30-2, lose rd 1; Leafs 38-36-4, miss playoffs
2014/15: Flyers 33-31-7, miss playoffs; Leafs 30-44-3, miss playoffs
2015/16: Flyers 41-27-6, lose rd 1; Leafs 29-42-5, miss playoffs
2016/17: Flyers 39-33-5, miss playoffs; Ducks 46-23-10, lose rd 3

You're talking about almost identical save percentages over the last 4 seasons, and Bernier playing on worse teams than Mason in 3/4 seasons.

But but but, Steve Mason.......

I hope you didn't break your mic when you dropped it.

 

[Sombastate]

Take the last 4 seasons, which includes the 4 years Mason was with the Flyers full-time.

Mason: 224 games, .917 sv%
Bernier: 190 games, .915 sv%

2013/14: Flyers 42-30-2, lose rd 1; Leafs 38-36-4, miss playoffs
2014/15: Flyers 33-31-7, miss playoffs; Leafs 30-44-3, miss playoffs
2015/16: Flyers 41-27-6, lose rd 1; Leafs 29-42-5, miss playoffs
2016/17: Flyers 39-33-5, miss playoffs; Ducks 46-23-10, lose rd 3

You're talking about almost identical save percentages over the last 4 seasons, and Bernier playing on worse teams than Mason in 3/4 seasons.

And I'm ok with that.

But comparing the two careers isnt a fair assessment, as they are entirely different situations.

And i would argue that the flyers had worst defenses in a few of those seasons.

 

[Sombastate]

If you are going to attack someone at least bring some factual information to the table. Bernier hasn't played on a better team than Mason in years minus this past season. The Flyers teams Mason was on for the three years prior to 2016-2017 were much better than the Leafs teams Bernier played on. It's also worth noting that the one year that Bernier played on a better team his save percentage was higher than Mason's to the tune of .914 to .908.

Yeah, that's a real fitting comparison and you are trying to accuse me of skewing the facts that fit my "narrative." If you think Bernier's numbers on those Leafs teams the last couple of years he was there are a fair indicator of his ability than let's look at Mason's numbers from his time in Columbus.


Still FAR better than those Toronto teams Bernier was playing behind, especially the last two years he was there.

Bernier was also hung out to dry for two years trying to bail out a team who had one of the top 5 worst records in the league in back to back seasons. You see how easy it is to do that. There is a reason for everything and it works both ways.

Looking at the last few years is something that favors Mason since other than this past season he has played on much better teams than Bernier. There isn't a way to just pick and choose stats for either guy which isn't going to skew things one direction or the other. You accusing me of doing that and then picking and choosing for yourself which stats matter is completely hypocritical especially since my message all along has been to look at their career in their totality.

At the end of the day Bernier is 28 years old and has played in 252 career NHL games and has a career save percentage of .915 while Steve Mason is 29 and has played in 463 NHL games with a career save percentage of .911. Neither guy proven themselves to be in a tier which is significantly higher or lower than the other. I would prefer Mason but there isn't a huge difference and anyone arguing there is for either side is fighting quite an up hill battle.

I didnt argue that one is a significant upgrade. I argued that your career versus career argument is flawed, which it is.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

And I'm ok with that.

But comparing the two careers isnt a fair assessment, as they are entirely different situations.

And i would argue that the flyers had worst defenses in a few of those seasons.

I wouldn't go that far. I think you're underestimating how bad Bernier's Leafs teams were.

Goals Against:
13/14: Flyers 235, Leafs 256
14/15: Flyers 234, Leafs 262
15/16: Flyers 218, Leafs 246

Yet Bernier managed a combined .915 save percentage over those 3 seasons with the brutal Leafs (which he maintained with his .915 this season with a much better Ducks team), so the goals against weren't his fault.

If you're going to excuse Mason's career .911 because he played with some bad teams, you have to give Bernier credit for having a career .915 despite playing with some really bad teams, too.

 

[The Madrigal]

And I'm ok with that.

But comparing the two careers isnt a fair assessment, as they are entirely different situations.

So comparing overall careers isn't fair, but picking and choosing installments of said careers when one guy has clearly played in worse teams in 3 out of the 4 seasons sampled isn't.

And i would argue that the flyers had worst defenses in a few of those seasons.

And you would be wrong and I don't often say that when it comes to something that could be considered an opinion.

In 2015-2106 the Leafs had the worst record in the entire NHL with 69 points. The Flyers made the playoffs with 96 points.

In 2014-2015 the Leafs had 68 points and had the fourth worst record in the NHL. The Flyers had the 7th worst record in the NHL but had considerably more points with 84.

In 2013-2014 the Leafs had 84 points for 12th in the east while the Flyers had 94 points and were 6th in the east.

Anyone who followed the Leafs and even hockey for that matter knew they were an dumpster fire those last two years that Bernier was there. They were a tremendously worse team than the Flyers on defense, offense, special teams, etc etc. Going back to 2013-2014 when the Leafs were bad but not terrible Bernier posted a very respectable .922 save percentage to Mason's .917 for a playoff team.

I simply said that while I prefer Mason that neither Mason nor Bernier are clearly in a tier above the other and the more you dig into that it is pretty obvious to see. Bernier was a guy who had completely lost his confidence and way with Toronto and showed signs of getting it back last year when he got to play for a decent team.

Again though, the fact of the matter is that while no statistical perspective is a perfect indicator of things the best and fairest way to assess these guys is to look at their career numbers since any way you break things down and leave certain things out will skew things in someone else's favor.

 

[Sombastate]

I wouldn't go that far. I think you're underestimating how bad Bernier's Leafs teams were.

Goals Against:
13/14: Flyers 235, Leafs 256
14/15: Flyers 234, Leafs 262
15/16: Flyers 218, Leafs 246

Yet Bernier managed a combined .915 save percentage over those 3 seasons with the brutal Leafs (which he maintained with his .915 this season with a much better Ducks team), so the goals against weren't his fault.

If you're going to excuse Mason's career .911 because he played with some bad teams, you have to give Bernier credit for having a career .915 despite playing with some really bad teams, too.

Any chance you know where to find the percentage of shots were from high scoring areas?

I'm not saying they'll make a difference, but i would be interested to see

 

[The Madrigal]

I didnt argue that one is a significant upgrade. I argued that your career versus career argument is flawed, which it is.

Which was a silly argument considering your idea was to just pick and choose the last four years to look at, when Bernier played for a team which was clearly worse than the teams that Mason played for in three out of those four seasons. Not to mention extremely hypocritical by the way.

As I said above, no statistical representation of two players is ever going to provide a perfect picture for what type of player they are. However, looking at the totality of their careers is a heck of a lot more of an indicator than cherry picking a four year period which clearly skews things in of the two players favor due to the quality of team each guy was playing for.

 

[The Madrigal]

I wouldn't go that far. I think you're underestimating how bad Bernier's Leafs teams were.

Goals Against:
13/14: Flyers 235, Leafs 256
14/15: Flyers 234, Leafs 262
15/16: Flyers 218, Leafs 246

Yet Bernier managed a combined .915 save percentage over those 3 seasons with the brutal Leafs (which he maintained with his .915 this season with a much better Ducks team), so the goals against weren't his fault.

If you're going to excuse Mason's career .911 because he played with some bad teams, you have to give Bernier credit for having a career .915 despite playing with some really bad teams, too.

 

[Sombastate]

Which was a silly argument considering your idea was to just pick and choose the last four years to look at, when Bernier played for a team which was clearly worse than the teams that Mason played for in three out of those four seasons. Not to mention extremely hypocritical by the way.

As I said above, no statistical representation of two players is ever going to provide a perfect picture for what type of player they are. However, looking at the totality of their careers is a heck of a lot more of an indicator than cherry picking a four year period which clearly skews things in of the two players favor due to the quality of team each guy was playing for.

I explained why i picked the last 4 years.

Do you honestly think its fair to compare a goalie who was thrown to the wolves on horrifically bad teams at the age of 20, to someone who had the opportunity to mature in a successful environment?

If you think thats a fair comparison then we are at an impasse and i totally ok with that.

Even if the Leaf teams were that bad, he wasnt a 20 year old, he was a 24-25 year old, you know, right when goalies are supposed to finally begin their prime. He also got to learn behind a work house, who most people considered a top 5 goalie in a blossoming organization.

And if you've never played goalie (maybe you have, I'm not assuming), then you can't possibly understand how big of a difference those 5 years of maturation matter.

They're numbers arent significantly different, which wasnt my argument. My argument was that you were ignoring VERY vital variables.

 

[The Madrigal]

I explained why i picked the last 4 years.

Do you honestly think its fair to compare a goalie who was thrown to the wolves on horrifically bad teams at the age of 20, to someone who had the opportunity to mature in a successful environment?

If you think thats a fair comparison then we are at an impasse and i totally ok with that.

Even if the Leaf teams were that bad, he wasnt a 20 year old, he was a 24-25 year old, you know, right when goalies are supposed to finally begin their prime. He also got to learn behind a work house, who most people considered a top 5 goalie in a blossoming organization.

And if you've never played goalie (maybe you have, I'm not assuming), then you can't possibly understand how big of a difference those 5 years of maturation matter.

They're numbers arent significantly different, which wasnt my argument. My argument was that you were ignoring VERY vital variables.

 

[Tripod]

Time will tell what will happen if we sign Bernier. But reality is, in the last 3 years, his highest Sv% is .915. So to expect him to be higher than that is going out on a limb.

And the last team that put him in a starters role also demoted him to the AHL.

Whereas Mason, 3 of the last 4 years has had a .917 or more. So the odds seem to be in his favour of that kind of season.

Will either get to that .917 this year? Who knows. But I am not sure why people can't see that a guy with a 75% success ratio over the last 4 years is more likely to do it over someone who has a 25% success ratio over that same time period.....and a 0% success ratio the last 3 years.

 

[The Madrigal]

I explained why i picked the last 4 years.

It doesn't matter why you picked the last four years. You can't just cherry pick stats to try and make a point and then tell someone else they are ignoring vital variables, especially as it relates to this argument (Bernier played for a dumpster fire of a team in Toronto over 3 of the last 4 years).

Do you honestly think its fair to compare a goalie who was thrown to the wolves on horrifically bad teams at the age of 20, to someone who had the opportunity to mature in a successful environment?

First of all, life and sports for that matter isn't fair. Second it's no less fair than comparing Mason with the Flyers over the last four years to Bernier playing for one of the worst teams in the league over a three year period for three out of the four year sample size you chose to focus on. Second, calling Toronto a successful environment for Bernier to have had success in is beyond laughable.

If you think thats a fair comparison then we are at an impasse and i totally ok with that.

You have contradicted yourself time and time again with this argument and sadly you don't even realize it.

Even if the Leaf teams were that bad

There is no IF which for some reason you continue to ignore. They missed the playoffs for three straight years, and over the last two had 69 and 68 points which were good enough for worst and fourth worst in the entire league, and worst in the league over that two year span.

he wasnt a 20 year old, he was a 24-25 year old, you know, right when goalies are supposed to finally begin their prime.

It doesn't matter if you are 20, 25, 35, or 45. If your team is a dumpster fire in front of you it's completely irrelevant. Furthermore I see your philosophy is to make every excuse possible for Mason but hold Bernier accountable for poor stats playing on the worst team in the league over a two year period.

He also got to learn behind a work house, who most people considered a top 5 goalie in a blossoming organization.

Short of having gone with him to Toronto and making saves for him, having played behind Quick early in his career has no relevance to what Bernier had to deal with in Toronto nor would it help him at all.

And if you've never played goalie (maybe you have, I'm not assuming), then you can't possibly understand how big of a difference those 5 years of maturation matter.

You continue to get caught up in all of the wrong things.

They're numbers arent significantly different, which wasnt my argument. My argument was that you were ignoring VERY vital variables.

LMAO, now that is hilarious coming from you. Please tell me you are trolling.

 

[The Madrigal]

Time will tell what will happen if we sign Bernier. But reality is, in the last 3 years, his highest Sv% is .915. So to expect him to be higher than that is going out on a limb.

And the last team that put him in a starters role also demoted him to the AHL.

Whereas Mason, 3 of the last 4 years has had a .917 or more. So the odds seem to be in his favour of that kind of season.

Will either get to that .917 this year? Who knows. But I am not sure why people can't see that a guy with a 75% success ratio over the last 4 years is more likely to do it over someone who has a 25% success ratio over that same time period.....and a 0% success ratio the last 3 years.

Career save percentage is .915 for Bernier and .911 for Mason. You continue to conveniently ignore this fact in lieu of simply focusing on a four year time frame which also happens to suit your argument quite well.

Bernier save percentage in 2016-2017 - .915
Mason save percentage in 2016-2017 - .908

That must mean Bernier is way better than Mason since his save percentage was much higher last year, right. You see, anyone can cherry pick stats to support their argument.

For all intents and purposes, they are the same guy.

 

[Tripod]

Career save percentage is .915 for Bernier and .911 for Mason. You continue to conveniently ignore this fact in lieu of simply focusing on a four year time frame which also happens to suit your argument quite well.

Bernier save percentage in 2016-2017 - .915
Mason save percentage in 2016-2017 - .908

That must mean Bernier is way better than Mason since his save percentage was much higher last year, right. You see, anyone can cherry pick stats to support their argument.

For all intents and purposes, they are the same guy.

Seriously, you honestly think what Mason did in CBus is relevant today? Then you can't be helped.

And yes, Bernier did have a better year. So based on recent info, do you think that will continue? Recent info says no it will not.

But go ahead, bet on the guy who has not cracked .917 in any of the last 3 years. I will bet on the guy who has done it 3 of the last 4 years.

And it should be noted, that me defending Mason, is not because it's Mason. It's the same reason why I expect Neuvirth to rebound after his awful year....recent history says he is a much better goalie than this past 1 season. Mrazek is the same thing. He had 6 straight good years and now 1 bad. I am willing to bet that those 6 years are more right than this 1 bad one. Just like Cory Schneider should rebound. And Bishop. And Fleury. All had **** years but have shown that recently that they are .917 goalies or better.

Unfortunately, Bernier has not.

 

[dats81]

Stats are fine and all but in the end it comes up to who they consider a better fit for the next couple of years. Long term the solution will come from within.

My gut feeling is that Hextall has something arranged with Bernier.

 

[OzFlyers]

We will continue to be disapointed with whatever Goalie Hextall goes with until we have one of the homegrown ones between the pipes.

 

[Protest]

We will continue to be disapointed with whatever Goalie Hextall goes with until we have one of the homegrown ones between the pipes.

Wouldn't it have been cool if the Flyers were the ones that had found Bobrovsky in Russia instead of the Blue Jackets...

 

[GKJ]

Some news anchor in Vancouver tweeted something that the Flyers had interest in Elliott, although I'd think by now they'd have interest in anybody.

Still would rather trade for Grubauer if the Capitals are willing to trade him here and it's a decent price. More upside, and if his numbers are real, a lot less pressure waiting for Stolarz, Sandstrom, or Hart. Goaltending is such a freak science, it's easy to say you have great prospects, a lot harder to turn them out, and often it takes a long time as well.

 

[Flyers1987]

Guys, we lost out on a cheap Condon yesterday.

The Ottawa Senators have signed goaltender Mike Condon to a three-year, $7.2 million contract extension.

 

[healthyscratch]

4 years away from Hart or Sandstrom. Sign a goalie for atleast 3 or 4 yrs.

Four? Going to let him ferment in lehigh for 3 seasons? With Hart it could very easily be 2. One more year in juniors, then give him the starting job in Lehigh for '18/19 and if he goes 1.99/.927 in Lehigh then he's my man in '19/'20 at age 21. In a perfect hockey world.

 

[GKJ]

Four? Going to let him ferment in lehigh for 3 seasons? With Hart it could very easily be 2. One more year in juniors, then give him the starting job in Lehigh for '18/19 and if he goes 1.99/.927 in Lehigh then he's my man in '19/'20 at age 21. In a perfect hockey world.

3 seasons in the AHL isn't outrageous. Stolarz is about to go into Year 4 and he's not even being considered. Could conceivably be 2020-21 before you're making a case for Hart to graduate from the AHL.