Starting Goalie

[renberg]

The board upheaval regarding the Flyers goaltending situation will go on for years until Sandstrom or Hart take over the job and play to the satisfaction of the fans. The squabbling will hit a high note after Saturday or when Hextall signs the new guy. He's better than Mason/no he's not is ready to be unfurled any moment now.
Stats are nice when you want to have fun with numbers. However their relevancy is significant. How do you compare the stats of a goalie playing in a defensive scheme such as what Tippet had in AZ with those of a goalie who played in an offensive one like they had in Pittsburgh? Then there are the off ice issues. Do the teammates like to play in front of him? Is he a jerk in the locker room? Does he come to play in less than satisfactory condition? Is he a finger pointer with everyone else except himself? We don't know the answer to these questions since teams usually hide their dirty laundry but they matter. If the Flyers knew the answers to them, they probably never would have chased down Bryzgalov.

 

[TheWolfOfBroadStreet]

Four? Going to let him ferment in lehigh for 3 seasons? With Hart it could very easily be 2. One more year in juniors, then give him the starting job in Lehigh for '18/19 and if he goes 1.99/.927 in Lehigh then he's my man in '19/'20 at age 21. In a perfect hockey world.

I think it would be unrealistic to see either sandstrom or hart before 2020 at the very least.

 

[The Madrigal]

Seriously, you honestly think what Mason did in CBus is relevant today? Then you can't be helped.

Stop with the double standards. What Mason did early on his career with Columbus isn't relevant according to you, but what Bernier did with Toronto over a two year period where they had the worst record in the league is?

And yes, Bernier did have a better year. So based on recent info, do you think that will continue? Recent info says no it will not.

No, but I expect Bernier to be right around his career average of .915 and Mason to be somewhere in the .915-.920 range which is close and is all I am saying.

But go ahead, bet on the guy who has not cracked .917 in any of the last 3 years. I will bet on the guy who has done it 3 of the last 4 years.

You are so caught up in arguing with me and for your man crush Mason that you aren't even arguing over the right things. I have stated time and time again that I would prefer Mason to Bernier, but that there isn't a significant difference between the two. The stats show that for their careers, last year, over the last four years, or however you want to cherry pick the stats to try and support your argument.

And it should be noted, that me defending Mason, is not because it's Mason. It's the same reason why I expect Neuvirth to rebound after his awful year....recent history says he is a much better goalie than this past 1 season. Mrazek is the same thing. He had 6 straight good years and now 1 bad. I am willing to bet that those 6 years are more right than this 1 bad one. Just like Cory Schneider should rebound. And Bishop. And Fleury. All had **** years but have shown that recently that they are .917 goalies or better.

Unfortunately, Bernier has not.

Yep, those guys are all .917 goalies but Bernier at .915 this past season as well as for his career is terrible because of those two points.

 

[The Madrigal]

Brian Elliott has a save percentage of .920 over the last four years.

Hextall better go out and sign him since that means he is automatically a clear upgrade to Steve Mason.

 

[WIP CALLER]

If Hart continues his development I wouldn't be shocked to see him challenge for the job after this season. he said after winning whl goalie of the year that he wants to make it hard for the team to send him back to juniors for this season. while obviously it's not going to happen that he makes it this year, but I do think he will turn some heads in camp and pre season. he has a great work ethic and really he just seems determined to make the nhl at a young age. it's a shame he can t play in the ahl this year as he really has nothing else to do in the chl other than break records and add to his trophy collection. I think him facing tougher competition would benefit him this season like sandstrom will be benefiting by facing competition in the SHL. I really would not be surprised to see either guy challenging to make the team in 18/19 as both have great talent and are just so sound positionally/mentally. obviously the team shouldn't force them into the starter role but if they look like the best option for the team then you go with them. I trust hextall to make that call though. I love that hextall has spent multiple mid round picks on goalies in hopes that at least one hits as a franchise goalie. right now we have 2 that have shown that potential and are imo 2 of the top 5 goalie prospects in the league. hopefully they both work out and we find ourselves in the position of wondering what franchise goalie to keep.

 

[Danko]

I'd like Bernier

 

[Tripod]

Stop with the double standards. What Mason did early on his career with Columbus isn't relevant according to you, but what Bernier did with Toronto over a two year period where they had the worst record in the league is?


No, but I expect Bernier to be right around his career average of .915 and Mason to be somewhere in the .915-.920 range which is close and is all I am saying.


You are so caught up in arguing with me and for your man crush Mason that you aren't even arguing over the right things. I have stated time and time again that I would prefer Mason to Bernier, but that there isn't a significant difference between the two. The stats show that for their careers, last year, over the last four years, or however you want to cherry pick the stats to try and support your argument.

Yep, those guys are all .917 goalies but Bernier at .915 this past season as well as for his career is terrible because of those two points.

No Mad, the RECENT stats show that all of a Mason, Mrazek, Fleury, Bishop are likely to RETURN to a .917 OR BETTER.....whereas Bernier will be at .915 OR WORSE.

Their is a difference.

Anyways, this won't be solved today, or even a year from now most likely. As others have said, whoever we get, we are likely on a merry go round of goalies again. So much fun.

Hopefully Sandstrom just kills the SHL this coming year and they bring him over and he jumps right to the NHL and plays well. One can hope.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

No Mad, the RECENT stats show that all of a Mason, Mrazek, Fleury, Bishop are likely to RETURN to a .917 OR BETTER.....whereas Bernier will be at .915 OR WORSE.

Their is a difference.

Why are you saying Mason is likely to return to his median of .917 "or better," when his high point of .928 was 3 seasons ago, and his low point of .908 was last season? I don't see any evidence to support such confidence in the "or better" part.

I think the best you can guess is that Mason will probably be within a few points of .917, and Bernier will probably be within a few points of .915.

 

[healthyscratch]

I think it would be unrealistic to see either sandstrom or hart before 2020 at the very least.

I'm not expecting it for '19 season, but he's a higher pedigree than Stolarz IMO and it wouldn't surprise me. If he lights it up at Lehigh in '18/'19 even for a year, then I say let him run with it.

 

[Rebels57]

Why are you saying Mason is likely to return to his median of .917 "or better," when his high point of .928 was 3 seasons ago, and his low point of .908 was last season? I don't see any evidence to support such confidence in the "or better" part.

I think the best you can guess is that Mason will probably be within a few points of .917, and Bernier will probably be within a few points of .915.

Why isn't that possible?

Brian Elliott year-by-year breakdown:

28 - .922
29 - .917
30 - .930

 

[Striiker]

Can we just play without a goalie this year? Maybe plop Mannings dumb ass down in the crease?

 

[backburner]

Can we just play without a goalie this year? Maybe plop Mannings dumb ass down in the crease?

is it legal to stack 6 guys on top of each other infront of the net?

lay there for 60 minutes and always get the OT point?

 

[Tripod]

is it legal to stack 6 guys on top of each other infront of the net?

lay there for 60 minutes and always get the OT point?

Yes, it called the Rangers.

 

[Tripod]

Why are you saying Mason is likely to return to his median of .917 "or better," when his high point of .928 was 3 seasons ago, and his low point of .908 was last season? I don't see any evidence to support such confidence in the "or better" part.

I think the best you can guess is that Mason will probably be within a few points of .917, and Bernier will probably be within a few points of .915.

Sigh...

2 of the last 3 years, Mason has had "or better" than .917. Is that not evidence???
3 of the last 3 years, Bernier has not passed .915.

This isn't hard to understand.

But as I said before, Mason is not the only one in this case. Mrazek I would look at adding for the same reason. 1 bad season does not erase 6 good seasons that he has had up to this point. Same with others including Neuvirth.

This isn't about Mason vs Bernier. It's about Bernier. If we sign him, or if anyone does, they should expect that he is a .915 goalie OR BELOW. To expect more would be dumb. Doesn't mean it can't happen. But the facts the last 3 years say he won't do it.

Whereas Mrazek for example, given that he has 1 year out of the last 6 BELOW .915, odds are that this past year is an outlier and he rebounds to the level that he has done in the past.

These guys expected lows, are the expected highs for Bernier.

Anyways, I am off to my niece's graduation. Have a good day boys.

 

[Larry44]

Can we just play without a goalie this year? Maybe plop Mannings dumb ass down in the crease?

This is Hexy's plan: Tank for 2018 better pick by dressing Bernier as our goalie.

 

[hatcher]

Hagg and Morin will cut goals against right off the bat if forwards finally do there jobs 2way.

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

Can we just play without a goalie this year? Maybe plop Mannings dumb ass down in the crease?

MacDonald spends most of the game in our crease on top of our goaltender anyway - the job's halfway done. Just give him a mask and an extra strength cup.

 

[Striiker]

MacDonald spends most of the game in our crease on top of our goaltender anyway - the job's halfway done. Just give him a mask and an extra strength cup.

Or same plan, minus the protective gear.

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

Or same plan, minus the protective gear.

 

[David St Hubbins]

The squabbling will hit a high note after Saturday or when Hextall signs the new guy. He's better than Mason/no he's not is ready to be unfurled any moment now.

No it's not.

 

[SanBlom]

I'm glad that this thread is proving that Save Percentage does not show the whole story. Mrazek is by far the best of every Goalie mentioned (stats aside). He is the best positionally, rebound control, puck handling, lateral movement, and skating. I consider him top 5 in the league and he would prove this if the Flyers were to get him. This is coming from a Goalie guy and I'm usually pretty accurate in my assessments. He is the guy that we need to target, especially since Detroit was OK with letting him go. He is right there with Bob as far as skills go and I think his mental toughness will show with a change of scenery. I just hope it is with us and not somewhere else...

Thats my piece and I'll stop pushing Mrazek on everyone now.

P.S. Look at Elliots save percentage. He sucks and would be the worst possible option.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Sigh...

2 of the last 3 years, Mason has had "or better" than .917. Is that not evidence???
3 of the last 3 years, Bernier has not passed .915.

This isn't hard to understand.

Mason's last four seasons, from 13/14 to 16/17 have been:
.917, .928, .918, .908 for an average of .917 over that span.

Yes, he technically had 3 seasons of .917 or above, but you're giving WAY too much weight to his .918 season in predicting that Mason is likely to be .917 "or better" next season.

The better way to look at it is that over the last 4 seasons, Mason had two seasons right at his average (.917/.918), one season way above it (.928), and one season far below (.908).

There is no way to confidently say Mason is more likely to end up on one side of .917 than the other this upcoming season; certainly not because of a season where he topped his average by .001 percentage points. And, in fact, the most recent data we have to go on is Mason performing *below* .917.

I'd say the better analysis is that Mason is likely to finish with in a few points of .917, and if I had to go over/under, I'd say the under is very slightly more likely based on the most recent data.

 

[healthyscratch]

Bernier, Elliott, bag of crap. Whatever, these guys aren't even worth debating.

 

[kelmitchell]

Miller to sign with Anaheim

 

[backburner]

huge