Speculation: Staios no longer with Oilers, rumoured to join Sens org

[HSF]

That’s what the Habs did when Andlauer was an owner there - also hired Bergenvon who was green without a POHO so not unprecedented

Bergevin had a bit of experience as an assistant GM:

After his retirement, Bergevin was a professional scout with the Blackhawks' organization. In 2008, he served as an assistant coach for the Blackhawks after three seasons with their scouting staff. In July 2009, he was appointed the team's director of player personnel.[3] While in this position, the Blackhawks won the Stanley Cup in 2010.

On June 15, 2011, Bergevin was promoted to assistant general manager of the Chicago Blackhawks. He replaced Kevin Cheveldayoff, who had left the Blackhawks organization to accept the general manager position with the new Winnipeg Jets team.[4]

On May 2, 2012, Bergevin was named general manager and executive vice president of the Montreal Canadiens.[5]

 

[DrEasy]

How do you evaluate a GM, by individual moves in a vacuum, or by the end results of their labour? Most people evaluate trades based on the assets exchanged, but ignore the constraints that led to them. How many of Dorion's trades were constrained by the teams payroll? How many were constrained by players wanting out and choosing their destination? How many moves were constrained by NTC blocking a target? I think his biggest fault has been having too much players would integrate into the team, Duchene and DeBrincat trades weren't bad value, and both could have become long term core pieces. With the constraints he had in place, the oppportunity to land guys of that caliber wasn't something he could count on later down the road, so he took the risk.

If the team assembled, with Stu, Tkachuk, Sanderson, Norris, Chychrun and Chabot as the core, ends up succeeding and becomes a contender, or better yet wins the cup, what does that mean to the legacy of Dorion?

I haven't been a huge fan of the moves Dorion made over the years, but I think the place he's gotten us to right now is pretty promising. He's certainly done better in that regard than a lot of other GMs over the years.

In this business if you suck long enough you get to draft high multiple years and get a chance to assemble a good team. Parity in the NHL (and all other NA sports) erases meritocracy to a great deal. Most GMs could have done what Dorion did (and more) given the assets he had and the opportunities he got based on years of sucking hard.

And sure, Dorion had some difficult constraints, budgetary and having to deal with Melnyk, but still too many of his errors were of the unforced type, e.g. every time he did get to spend whatever budget he had.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

Fair to say if Dorion was to be fired they would have done it and made someone like Bowness be interim GM during transition . He is definitely getting a shot under Andlauer but his invincibility from ass kissing an owner is gone

this is most likely the case…..PD will not finish out his contract as GM… IF the team plays well enough to qualify for the playoffs, he will be let go/replaced/reassigned in the offseason.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

This is an absolutely trolling post that should be deleted. We get it you love melnyk but these situations are nothing alike. Dorion is done here long term whether you like to acknowledge it or not. His track record in regards to how he treats others around him, cant work with others and is constantly paranoid is why he wont be around for long. Almost every time a new ownership group comes in they get their own people.

First off I was not replying to you, and if you think I love Melnyk, well you would be wrong on that point…. But I guess you think that is an insult or something…. Over the years I’ve made my opinion of the former owner well known…. Neither loved or hated him… but I guess in your universe there is no in between.

New ownership make their changes… I’m simply pointing out it is not going to happen as soon as the haters want it to happen, because the new owners don’t act like the haters do.

 

[Silky Johnson]

So I guess you will start an anti Andlauer ( #AndlauerOut!) thread, 6 minutes after he officially become the Majority owner.

That would be stupid. I'm not saying it would be a disaster but it's would be pointless.

Dorion is not a long term part of this team. Just move on.

 

[Hale The Villain]

How do you evaluate a GM, by individual moves in a vacuum, or by the end results of their labour? Most people evaluate trades based on the assets exchanged, but ignore the constraints that led to them. How many of Dorion's trades were constrained by the teams payroll? How many were constrained by players wanting out and choosing their destination? How many moves were constrained by NTC blocking a target? I think his biggest fault has been having too much players would integrate into the team, Duchene and DeBrincat trades weren't bad value, and both could have become long term core pieces. With the constraints he had in place, the oppportunity to land guys of that caliber wasn't something he could count on later down the road, so he took the risk.

If the team assembled, with Stu, Tkachuk, Sanderson, Norris, Chychrun and Chabot as the core, ends up succeeding and becomes a contender, or better yet wins the cup, what does that mean to the legacy of Dorion?

I haven't been a huge fan of the moves Dorion made over the years, but I think the place he's gotten us to right now is pretty promising. He's certainly done better in that regard than a lot of other GMs over the years.

I wish Dorion had more constraints on him. When he's been given the greenlight to spend money on new acquisitions it's largely been a disaster.

There's no question that, in general, players don't want to play in Ottawa. There's the occasional case of a local guy like Giroux and we've had some luck attracting Russians (Gonchar, Kovalev, Dadonov, Tarasenko), but I've never been one to blame Dorion for failing to acquire a guy who has a NTC. I'm usually the guy in the trade proposal thread pointing out that a player has a NTC and isn't a realistic target.

Dorion doesn't understand how to manage risk. Trading as much as he did for Duchene and DeBrincat, who both were two years away from UFA status, is not good risk management considering my point above - players generally prefer to play elsewhere. Dorion should have been focused on adding players with existing term on their contracts that don't have the option of leaving. It can be difficult to do but that's the reality we deal with as a small market Canadian team and I don't think striking out by swing for the fences shortsightedly is something he should be praised for.

I have stated for a long time that GMs get way too much credit or blame for draft picks. GMs typically don't overrule their scouts and most of them have enough on their plate. They aren't the ones traveling throughout NA to scout draft eligibles. They may have some input in the 1st round, but beyond that it's unlikely they play much of a role on draft day. Dorion himself has said Mann runs the draft, so credit for Stutzle, Sanderson, Tkachuk, etc... or blame for Boucher, Thomson, JBD, etc... falls on him primarily.

As has been pointed out, it also shouldn't shock anyone that the team has a bright future. When you blow up a team, trade numerous star players (Karlsson, Stone, Duchene), several other good players (Brassard, Pageau, Hoffman, Dzingel), and then suck for half a decade, it's very difficult to screw up so badly that your team doesn't have a bright future. That's the reality of spending so much time at the bottom of the league selecting high in the draft, as well as racking up a large number of prospects and quality picks from selling existing talent. Sens had more talent to trade away than any other rebuilding team in the last decade. We really should be in a better position than we are right now given that, and Dorion's failings are a big reason for that.

 

[Micklebot]

In this business if you suck long enough you get to draft high multiple years and get a chance to assemble a good team. Parity in the NHL (and all other NA sports) erases meritocracy to a great deal. Most GMs could have done what Dorion did (and more) given the assets he had and the opportunities he got based on years of sucking hard.

And sure, Dorion had some difficult constraints, budgetary and having to deal with Melnyk, but still too many of his errors were of the unforced type, e.g. every time he did get to spend whatever budget he had.

We've never drafted higher than 3rd (which was a pick acquired by trade).

Look at teams like NJ, NYR, Buf, they benefited from similar or better draft position and put future looks as bright as any of their's, look how many years of drafting high it took for EDM drafting multiple 1oa before they finally broke out of the basement

Idk, I think the argument that a bright future was inevitable with the assets we had could be used almost every other successful rebuild and ignores the teams that struggled in spite of the assets

 

[DrEasy]

We've never drafted higher than 3rd (which was a pick acquired by trade).

Look at teams like NJ, NYR, Buf, they benefited from similar or better draft position and put future looks as bright as any of their's, look how many years of drafting high it took for EDM drafting multiple 1oa before they finally broke out of the basement

Idk, I think the argument that a bright future was inevitable with the assets we had could be used almost every other successful rebuild and ignores the teams that struggled in spite of the assets

It's not just draft position though, we started with assets such as Karlsson, Stone, etc. @Xspyrit has written extensively about this stuff, so I won't repeat.

 

[Hale The Villain]

We've never drafted higher than 3rd (which was a pick acquired by trade).

Look at teams like NJ, NYR, Buf, they benefited from similar or better draft position and put future looks as bright as any of their's, look how many years of drafting high it took for EDM drafting multiple 1oa before they finally broke out of the basement

Idk, I think the argument that a bright future was inevitable with the assets we had could be used almost every other successful rebuild and ignores the teams that struggled in spite of the assets

As it happens we ended up winning the lottery by only ending up with the 3rd overall pick.

Stutzle was a no brainer at #3 but had we won the #1 pick we would have taken Lafreniere and we'd be significantly worse off right now. That 3rd overall pick ended up being better than arguably any #1 pick in the past 5 years, with the possible exceptions of Hughes, Dahlin and Bedard, so it's hard to say we've been unfortunate in our lottery luck.

The difference you haven't mentioned between other teams who went through a long rebuild is that the Devils, Sabres and Oilers didn't have the same kind of assets to trade for futures when they started their rebuild:

Karlsson was a 28YR old two time Norris winner coming off a 62P/71GP season, in which he was playing coming off injuries suffered following leading his team to within a goal of the SCF the year prior

Stone was a 27YR old Selke candidate with 62P/59GP (86P/82GP pace) having been centered by White all year before being dealt to Vegas with an extension

Duchene was 28YRs old and was playing like a legit #1 center with 58P/50GP (95P/82GP pace) when he was dealt to Columbus

Brassard was 28YRs old and had 38P/58GP (54P/82GP pace) when he was dealt, and he had an extra year on his contract, so he wasn't a rental

Pageau was 27YRs old and had 40P/60GP (55P/82GP pace) when dealt to the Isles

Dzingel was 26YRs old and had 44P/57GP (63P/82GP) when he was dealt to Columbus

Hoffman was 28YRs old and had 56P/82GP when he was dealt to San Jose

Dorion had an top 6 forward group in their 20s + one of the best defenseman in the league to trade for futures. The Sabres/Devils/Oilers had nowhere near that amount of talent to trade away to jumpstart their rebuilds, so obviously that necessitates rebuilding for longer.

 

[Golden_Jet]

As it happens we ended up winning the lottery by only ending up with the 3rd overall pick.

Stutzle was a no brainer at #3 but had we won the #1 pick we would have taken Lafreniere and we'd be significantly worse off right now. That 3rd overall pick ended up being better than arguably any #1 pick in the past 5 years, with the possible exceptions of Hughes, Dahlin and Bedard, so it's hard to say we've been unfortunate in our lottery luck.

The difference you haven't mentioned between other teams who went through a long rebuild is that the Devils, Sabres and Oilers didn't have the same kind of assets to trade for futures when they started their rebuild:

Karlsson was a 28YR old two time Norris winner coming off a 62P/71GP season, in which he was playing coming off injuries suffered following leading his team to within a goal of the SCF the year prior

Stone was a 27YR old Selke candidate with 62P/59GP (86P/82GP pace) having been centered by White all year before being dealt to Vegas with an extension

Duchene was 28YRs old and was playing like a legit #1 center with 58P/50GP (95P/82GP pace) when he was dealt to Columbus

Brassard was 28YRs old and had 38P/58GP (54P/82GP pace) when he was dealt, and he had an extra year on his contract, so he wasn't a rental

Pageau was 27YRs old and had 40P/60GP (55P/82GP pace) when dealt to the Isles

Dzingel was 26YRs old and had 44P/57GP (63P/82GP) when he was dealt to Columbus

Hoffman was 28YRs old and had 56P/82GP when he was dealt to San Jose

Dorion had a top 6 forward group in their 20s + one of the best defenseman in the league to trade for futures. The Sabres/Devils/Oilers had nowhere near that amount of talent to trade away to jumpstart their rebuilds, so obviously that necessitates rebuilding for longer.

Sabres, Oilers and Devils, all had more than 1, first overall picks and second overall picks.

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

As it happens we ended up winning the lottery by only ending up with the 3rd overall pick.

Stutzle was a no brainer at #3 but had we won the #1 pick we would have taken Lafreniere and we'd be significantly worse off right now. That 3rd overall pick ended up being better than arguably any #1 pick in the past 5 years, with the possible exceptions of Hughes, Dahlin and Bedard, so it's hard to say we've been unfortunate in our lottery luck.

The difference you haven't mentioned between other teams who went through a long rebuild is that the Devils, Sabres and Oilers didn't have the same kind of assets to trade for futures when they started their rebuild:

Karlsson was a 28YR old two time Norris winner coming off a 62P/71GP season, in which he was playing coming off injuries suffered following leading his team to within a goal of the SCF the year prior

Stone was a 27YR old Selke candidate with 62P/59GP (86P/82GP pace) having been centered by White all year before being dealt to Vegas with an extension

Duchene was 28YRs old and was playing like a legit #1 center with 58P/50GP (95P/82GP pace) when he was dealt to Columbus

Brassard was 28YRs old and had 38P/58GP (54P/82GP pace) when he was dealt, and he had an extra year on his contract, so he wasn't a rental

Pageau was 27YRs old and had 40P/60GP (55P/82GP pace) when dealt to the Isles

Dzingel was 26YRs old and had 44P/57GP (63P/82GP) when he was dealt to Columbus

Hoffman was 28YRs old and had 56P/82GP when he was dealt to San Jose

Dorion had an top 6 forward group in their 20s + one of the best defenseman in the league to trade for futures. The Sabres/Devils/Oilers had nowhere near that amount of talent to trade away to jumpstart their rebuilds, so obviously that necessitates rebuilding for longer.

90% great moves.... get rid of them. move on.

Rebuild had to happen

Assets from picks

 

[Micklebot]

It's not just draft position though, we started with assets such as Karlsson, Stone, etc. @Xspyrit has written extensively about this stuff, so I won't repeat.

Its easy to say with all these assets anyone could have done it, but I think that's really oversimplifying things. Karlsson had all the leverage, and could pick his spot, same with Stone. Those assets might seem like fantastic starting points, but the leverage was on the players side. Maybe we should have traded them earlier, before the leverage swung to them, but as a team with a penny pinching owner, I'm not convinced that making those trades before our hand was forced was actually feasible.

Good teams aren't just a collection of high picks and good players, Toronto continues to struggle every year in the playoffs, Edmonton took years (and a generational player) to get out of the basement despite how many 1 OA? Buffalo traded off O'Reilly, Eichel, Kane, and Reinhart to get where they are today, the right mix of players is more important than having the highest level of talent.

I don't think Dorion has been elite or anything, but I do think that he gets dumped on a little more than deserved, there are fair criticisms to be made, but it seems many are too eager to hand wave away the success, and focus only on the failures.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

That would be stupid. I'm not saying it would be a disaster but it's would be pointless.

Dorion is not a long term part of this team. Just move on.

We agree…. Don’t know if you saw an earlier post I made, but said PD will not finish out his current contract…. He will be let go, reassigned or whatever, at some point during the season, if the team is not playing up to expectations….or in the offseason, if the senators make, or just miss the playoffs…. Andlauer will bring in his people, or someone who becomes a available in the offseason

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

We've never drafted higher than 3rd (which was a pick acquired by trade).

Look at teams like NJ, NYR, Buf, they benefited from similar or better draft position and put future looks as bright as any of their's, look how many years of drafting high it took for EDM drafting multiple 1oa before they finally broke out of the basement

Idk, I think the argument that a bright future was inevitable with the assets we had could be used almost every other successful rebuild and ignores the teams that struggled in spite of the asset

when you say “we’ve” you mean the Senators… right?

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Melnyk was never going to pay them and give them the terms they wanted either way, regardless of age or trajectory, especially Karlsson, so everyone was being dealt during that time no matter what, it was just a matter of when and for what really.

Lets just hope we don't have to tear it down again when this core gets to 26/27 years old. I'm optimistic with a proper owner.

 

[Micklebot]

when you say “we’ve” you mean the Senators… right?

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Discussion is about Dorion as a GM and this rebuild, so if you were following it would be pretty obvious what I was referring to.

 

[Tuna99]

Love how salty this tread is with people backing up the complete unknown owners intentions with certainty. And engaging and defending and the haters “because that’s the world they live in” when they are taking their internet opinions as hard facts formed through visions of Michael Andlauer because I guess that’s the world we live in

 

[Silky Johnson]

We agree…. Don’t know if you saw an earlier post I made, but said PD will not finish out his current contract…. He will be let go, reassigned or whatever, at some point during the season, if the team is not playing up to expectations….or in the offseason, if the senators make, or just miss the playoffs…. Andlauer will bring in his people, or someone who becomes a available in the offseason

Sure, but if he is a "lame duck" GM Andlauer should exit him as soon as he can and he very well may do it right away.

The timing of the completion of the deal is not ideal. It's the boards decision to keep Dorion until Andlauer officially owns the team. All he can do is ask to make changes. Its entirely possible he will make the change regardless of timing once he takes over.

If he does not, I think it's a mistake, although a likely well motivated one. Keeping around senior leaders that everyone knows are not part of a go forward plan creates confusion, prevents cohesion & delays positive change.

He may think its too late in the preseason or that it would look good that he is giving people a chance to succeed but I think that would be a well motivated mistake. Culture takes time to change and senior leadership is who drives that change. Every day that Dorion stays is a lost opportunity - It's basic Organisational Behaviour.

But don't worry, no one will be calling for his head either way. In fact I hope/think that we can have a long period of time where we don't have to think about who owns the team because the hockey people are running the show.

 

[Silky Johnson]

Its easy to say with all these assets anyone could have done it, but I think that's really oversimplifying things. Karlsson had all the leverage, and could pick his spot, same with Stone. Those assets might seem like fantastic starting points, but the leverage was on the players side. Maybe we should have traded them earlier, before the leverage swung to them, but as a team with a penny pinching owner, I'm not convinced that making those trades before our hand was forced was actually feasible.

Good teams aren't just a collection of high picks and good players, Toronto continues to struggle every year in the playoffs, Edmonton took years (and a generational player) to get out of the basement despite how many 1 OA? Buffalo traded off O'Reilly, Eichel, Kane, and Reinhart to get where they are today, the right mix of players is more important than having the highest level of talent.

I don't think Dorion has been elite or anything, but I do think that he gets dumped on a little more than deserved, there are fair criticisms to be made, but it seems many are too eager to hand wave away the success, and focus only on the failures.

People also underestimate the role that luck plays in hockey trades and drafts.

Tim Stutzle would not likely be on this team if we won the lottery and picked first. Its was also incredibly lucky that San Jose sucked that year.

Player development can be a crap shoot. Did Edmonton make a bunch of against the consensus picks? Not really.

I'll give credit to Dorion for going off the board and succeeding sometimes but there have been lots of failures in that respect as well. And some of his successes could have been picked up later netting us a better prospect pool.

Even with trading assets luck is huge. Brannstrom was a much higher value prospect than Norris. Did Dorion see something in Norris that not many others did? Not likely but if so he didn't have that vision with Brannstrom.

Good GM's and scouting staff modify luck with skill but it is enough of a low event environment that luck always plays a significant factor.

I'd say Dorion is a risk taking GM benefiting from above average luck.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

Discussion is about Dorion as a GM and this rebuild, so if you were following it would be pretty obvious what I was referring to.

Yeah, just saw the one post, so I stand corrected…. But still don’t see why some people seem to discount a top draft picked acquired in a trade… in my eyes it’s at least on par with a draft pick acquired but how low your team finishes in the standings, in fact trading and acquiring a top draft pick in a trade may be better than just the ones your team gets for sucking.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

Sure, but if he is a "lame duck" GM Andlauer should exit him as soon as he can and he very well may do it right away.

The timing of the completion of the deal is not ideal. It's the boards decision to keep Dorion until Andlauer officially owns the team. All he can do is ask to make changes. Its entirely possible he will make the change regardless of timing once he takes over.

If he does not, I think it's a mistake, although a likely well motivated one. Keeping around senior leaders that everyone knows are not part of a go forward plan creates confusion, prevents cohesion & delays positive change.

He may think its too late in the preseason or that it would look good that he is giving people a chance to succeed but I think that would be a well motivated mistake. Culture takes time to change and senior leadership is who drives that change. Every day that Dorion stays is a lost opportunity - It's basic Organisational Behaviour.

But don't worry, no one will be calling for his head either way. In fact I hope/think that we can have a long period of time where we don't have to think about who owns the team because the hockey people are running the show.

well I don’t think PD is a lame duck in the eyes of the new owners, yet, but 100% for sure he is on borrowed time as GM, and Andlauer has relationships outside of the Senators organization and he will be bringing them in eventually, probably within the first two months, and when the time feels right, after a period of due diligence to see how the current staff performs… changes will come. I could see PD being moved within the organization when his time as GM is done, and that is no later than the off-season 2024… or sooner if the team’s performance is not up to the expected standard the owners, not PD, feels it should be.

A lot of the negative baggage PD has been lugging around for the past 5 years or so, can be attributed to the handcuffs he had placed on him by the previous owner…. He will now be given a chance, and it is his last chance… but he still is going to be replaced as GM before his current contract expires….

 

[Tuna99]

Andlauer on Staois Oct 2022 (I’d say he’s a big fan of Staois’s)

“I am incredibly proud of Steve and forever grateful for everything he has done both on and off the ice for our city and our fans,” said Andlauer.

“I have no doubt in my mind that his experience and success over the past seven years with the Bulldogs will make him an equally successful executive at the NHL level.”

 

[Micklebot]

People also underestimate the role that luck plays in hockey trades and drafts.

Tim Stutzle would not likely be on this team if we won the lottery and picked first. Its was also incredibly lucky that San Jose sucked that year.

Player development can be a crap shoot. Did Edmonton make a bunch of against the consensus picks? Not really.

I'll give credit to Dorion for going off the board and succeeding sometimes but there have been lots of failures in that respect as well. And some of his successes could have been picked up later netting us a better prospect pool.

Even with trading assets luck is huge. Brannstrom was a much higher value prospect than Norris. Did Dorion see something in Norris that not many others did? Not likely but if so he didn't have that vision with Brannstrom.

Good GM's and scouting staff modify luck with skill but it is enough of a low event environment that luck always plays a significant factor.

I'd say Dorion is a risk taking GM benefiting from above average luck.

Luck goes both ways, this team certainly hasn't only experienced good fortune,

Career altering injuries to Karlsson and the Hoffman/Karlsson incident are two pretty big ones, you can add shoulder injuries to Norris as season altering events. Even small things like when we traded a second for Stepan (not a great trade imo) we likely intended to flip him at the deadline to recover at least some of asset after benefiting from his leadership, but a season ending injury prevented that.

 

[JD1]

I wish Dorion had more constraints on him. When he's been given the greenlight to spend money on new acquisitions it's largely been a disaster.

There's no question that, in general, players don't want to play in Ottawa. There's the occasional case of a local guy like Giroux and we've had some luck attracting Russians (Gonchar, Kovalev, Dadonov, Tarasenko), but I've never been one to blame Dorion for failing to acquire a guy who has a NTC. I'm usually the guy in the trade proposal thread pointing out that a player has a NTC and isn't a realistic target.

Dorion doesn't understand how to manage risk. Trading as much as he did for Duchene and DeBrincat, who both were two years away from UFA status, is not good risk management considering my point above - players generally prefer to play elsewhere. Dorion should have been focused on adding players with existing term on their contracts that don't have the option of leaving. It can be difficult to do but that's the reality we deal with as a small market Canadian team and I don't think striking out by swing for the fences shortsightedly is something he should be praised for.

I have stated for a long time that GMs get way too much credit or blame for draft picks. GMs typically don't overrule their scouts and most of them have enough on their plate. They aren't the ones traveling throughout NA to scout draft eligibles. They may have some input in the 1st round, but beyond that it's unlikely they play much of a role on draft day. Dorion himself has said Mann runs the draft, so credit for Stutzle, Sanderson, Tkachuk, etc... or blame for Boucher, Thomson, JBD, etc... falls on him primarily.

As has been pointed out, it also shouldn't shock anyone that the team has a bright future. When you blow up a team, trade numerous star players (Karlsson, Stone, Duchene), several other good players (Brassard, Pageau, Hoffman, Dzingel), and then suck for half a decade, it's very difficult to screw up so badly that your team doesn't have a bright future. That's the reality of spending so much time at the bottom of the league selecting high in the draft, as well as racking up a large number of prospects and quality picks from selling existing talent. Sens had more talent to trade away than any other rebuilding team in the last decade. We really should be in a better position than we are right now given that, and Dorion's failings are a big reason for that.

You're contradicting yourself. He can't manage risk so he should trade for guys with lots of term. There's basically two types of guys with lots of term. Guys signed to ufa deals that have ntc protection. Guys coming off ELCs that got signed to term but these are guys that the team they play for aren't looking to trade. There really aren't attractive players signed to lots of term. You can get players with lots of term not living up to their aav.

Re scouting. I'll call bullshit. I couldn't be bothered to search for the quote but Dorion has been quite clear that inside the top 10 he decides. He scouts the players that might go that high. So there's certainly some credit there. We could have drafted Zadina and Rossi. And had we done that, you'd be the FIRST guy on these boards screaming about Dorion being an idiot because we could have had Tkachuk and Sanderson

There's a lot of limitations in this market, some of which are hopefully going to be less important going forward. Entering a competitive window we should be able to attract quality free agents.

 

[JD1]

People also underestimate the role that luck plays in hockey trades and drafts.

Tim Stutzle would not likely be on this team if we won the lottery and picked first. Its was also incredibly lucky that San Jose sucked that year.

Player development can be a crap shoot. Did Edmonton make a bunch of against the consensus picks? Not really.

I'll give credit to Dorion for going off the board and succeeding sometimes but there have been lots of failures in that respect as well. And some of his successes could have been picked up later netting us a better prospect pool.

Even with trading assets luck is huge. Brannstrom was a much higher value prospect than Norris. Did Dorion see something in Norris that not many others did? Not likely but if so he didn't have that vision with Brannstrom.

Good GM's and scouting staff modify luck with skill but it is enough of a low event environment that luck always plays a significant factor.

I'd say Dorion is a risk taking GM benefiting from above average luck.

There's an interview with Wilson's son about the Karlsson trade where he made it quite clear that ottawa required Norris in the package

Luck goes both ways, this team certainly hasn't only experienced good fortune,

Career altering injuries to Karlsson and the Hoffman/Karlsson incident are two pretty big ones, you can add shoulder injuries to Norris as season altering events. Even small things like when we traded a second for Stepan (not a great trade imo) we likely intended to flip him at the deadline to recover at least some of asset after benefiting from his leadership, but a season ending injury prevented that.

Do any of these events fit within the narrative you're arguing against? Should you be surprised they're not mentioned?