SSM Greyhounds 2019-20 Season Thread

[HF92]

You make it sound like I am cherry picking information to support some predetermined hypothesis. Let me be clear. I am doing no such thing. Quant Hockey is deciding which players to include, not me.

I have no interest in calculating average age for OHL teams, and maintaining this information year to year or even throughout the season as the roster changes. If you want to calculate it on a per game basis based on who dressed that game, be my guest. This is way to much work for me. Rather, I was working to validate the conflicting information provided by the two sites. I figured once we understood how the sites were deriving their numbers and confirmed their accuracy, it would give us more insight into this question of which numbers were more accurate.

I have not been able to come up with a calculation to validate the numbers provided by Elite Prospects, so I have no idea how they are calculating it. If you are able to determine the methodology that they use, and the calculations line up with their numbers, please provide that information, and we can have a debate as to the veracity of their numbers based on which players' ages they include/exclude from the calculation.

The purpose of my earlier post was to share the methodology used at Quant Hockey, which I have validated. I did not choose the players that Quant Hockey is including/excluding. They did. Debating whether or not their methodology is the best approach is certainly a valid topic. The reason I am more comfortable using those numbers over the elite prospect numbers is that at least I know how those number were derived and can attest to their accuracy, given the methodology used. Again, I can't attest to the Elite Prospect numbers.

Average age means nothing. You need three overager player and a veteran goalie to win. Plain and simple. Hahaha!

 

[HockeyPops]

Average age means nothing. You need three overager player and a veteran goalie to win. Plain and simple. Hahaha!

Michael DiPietro as a 16 17 year old won the Memorial Cup. Hmmmm.

Edit: he was 17, but still not considered a "veteran".

 

[Spits1963]

Michael DiPietro as a 16 year old won the Memorial Cup. Hmmmm.

He was a 17 year old

 

[Spits1963]

Michael DiPietro as a 16 17 year old won the Memorial Cup. Hmmmm.

Edit: he was 17, but still not considered a "veteran".

And could have/should have been MVP of tournament

 

[HF92]

Michael DiPietro as a 16 17 year old won the Memorial Cup. Hmmmm.

Edit: he was 17, but still not considered a "veteran".

How did their season go? They back doored the memorial cup and won 4 games. LOL but that season as a host team was TRASH and they had a first round exit.


Let's find a not host team?

 

[HockeyPops]

For anyone concerned about the defensive side of Billy Constantinou's game, he has had a great start for the team. In the 3 games he has played, he was a +1 in each game (keep in mind we lost two of them).

 

[HockeyPops]

Let's find a not host team?

Carl Stankowski won the WHL in 2017 as a 17 year old rookie?

 

[Fischhaber]

Interesting! This might explain the slight discrepancies between my calculations and those from the site. I don't think I am going to go down that road, as I never intended on doing complex calculations to validate these numbers.

Since the eliteprospects ages are not correct, I really just wanted to share a site that gives (fairly) accurate age numbers that are based on who actually plays.

I never intended for the discussion to devolve to this extent.

 

[Fischhaber]

For anyone concerned about the defensive side of Billy Constantinou's game, he has had a great start for the team. In the 3 games he has played, he was a +1 in each game (keep in mind we lost two of them).

He made a couple of nice plays using his speed to come back on odd man rushes as well. He looks a lot more motivated with his new team. Here are some scouting reports on his defense.

"Consistency in decision making was an issue. But I was impressed with his defensive zone commitment level, something that was supposed to be poor coming out of minor midget."

"Constantinou’s skating ability helps him in one-on-one situations. He is tough to beat off the rush as he maintains good gap control and poke checks the puck away from opponents. Constantinou will need to limit his turnovers as mentioned above. He has decent positioning and works to cut down passing lanes."

"Defensively, I don’t want to say the move to Kingston has exposed a flaw in his game. The horses aren’t there in Kingston and what it has done is forced him to play more on the defensive side of the puck. His gap control is very good. He recognizes the need and has the ability to keep players to the outside. Once he adds more muscle, he will become more adept at winning battles along the wall and in front of the paint. His strength has been and always will be the transition game with an excellent ability to clear his zone with an excellent first pass or to take care of business himself and skate out of danger.”

 

[HockeyPops]

With the recent chat in here about special teams needing more data points, I decided to do a quick comparison of teams based on even strength scoring only. I took each team's GF & GA, and then removed PPGF, PPGA, SHGF, SHGA. I sorted the list by % of even strength goals scored, highest to lowest.

Team	EVGF	EVGA	EV%
Owen Sound Attack	30	17	64%
Flint Firebirds	39	24	62%
Oshawa Generals	33	24	58%
Barrie Colts	35	26	57%
Soo Greyhounds	43	32	57%
Windsor Spitfires	36	27	57%
Peterborough Petes	42	34	55%
Sudbury Wolves	43	36	54%
Kitchener Rangers	34	30	53%
Saginaw Spirit	37	34	52%
Ottawa 67'S	26	25	51%
Erie Otters	38	38	50%
London Knights	26	29	47%
Guelph Storm	27	31	47%
Hamilton Bulldogs	30	35	46%
Sarnia Sting	35	45	44%
Mississauga Steelheads	18	26	41%
Niagara IceDogs	24	37	39%
Kingston Frontenacs	24	42	36%
North Bay Battalion	23	51	31%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Marj44]

Good stretch of games coming up (WSR, FLNT, SAG). For a team that has been highly inconsistent it would be nice to string along a few good hockey games. With the top of the division so tight it will be an interesting stretch as far as standings go.

 

[Savard18]

I can't get this calculation to give me the numbers Elite Prospects gets. They must be doing something else.


The NHL disagrees. Hence the Late Birthday September 15 cutoff for the NHL draft every year.

The NHL doesn't matter. The kid can be born September 14, September 16, March 1 or November 1. He becomes an OA in the same year and ages out in the same year. Whether or not he's 1 day younger or 11 months younger than his compatriots it matters none.

 

[HockeyPops]

I consistently see January babies dominate athletics through elementary and secondary school, and December babies lag behind. The same is true for elite athletes at the minor midget level and into the OHL. Late birthday kids have had to play their whole lives as the youngest players of their age cohort. Further, these kids go through so many physical and psychological changes in a matter of a few years of junior hockey, and yet you say 11 months makes no difference? I guess we agree to disagree.

For long term planning and roster management however, birth year absolutely matters.

 

[Ptbomillsy619]

How did their season go? They back doored the memorial cup and won 4 games. LOL but that season as a host team was TRASH and they had a first round exit.


Let's find a not host team?

The spitfires finished that season with 90 points and played 99 point knights in a 4-5 rnd one matchup the west was extremely strong that year I’d hardly call that a trash season

 

[Ptbomillsy619]

Any word on Hayton being returned ?

 

[Savard18]

I consistently see January babies dominate athletics through elementary and secondary school, and December babies lag behind. The same is true for elite athletes at the minor midget level and into the OHL. Late birthday kids have had to play their whole lives as the youngest players of their age cohort. Further, these kids go through so many physical and psychological changes in a matter of a few years of junior hockey, and yet you say 11 months makes no difference? I guess we agree to disagree.

For long term planning and roster management however, birth year absolutely matters.

Yeah, I'm familiar with Malcolm Gladwell's work. It slowly starts to become less of a factor as the group ages. There are outliers there too. For example, Mario Lemieux and Patrick Roy. Oct 5 birthdays. Sidney Crosby August. Ovechkin. September. I think it's certainly valid at the OHL level but your argument then would be you want an older team right? Also, I should mention the NHL date does matter to a degree, say you've got a superstar kid on your roster who is born post Sept 15. You're guaranteed to have him for 3 seasons in the O before graduation, which is nice. I just think if you're going to claim how young your team is (half the fans on HFBoards do it) then it should be like dirty12 said. Pick your legit 22. Then factor how many years of eligibility they have left. If the team has 3 OA's and 19 19yo's born in January vs a team with 3 OA's 19 19yo's born in December, youth has zero benefit.

 

[Savard18]

The spitfires finished that season with 90 points and played 99 point knights in a 4-5 rnd one matchup the west was extremely strong that year I’d hardly call that a trash season

...and more injuries to top 6 players than I've ever seen while being ranked in the CHL's top 10 multiple weeks.

 

[dirty12]

I consistently see January babies dominate athletics through elementary and secondary school, and December babies lag behind. The same is true for elite athletes at the minor midget level and into the OHL. Late birthday kids have had to play their whole lives as the youngest players of their age cohort. Further, these kids go through so many physical and psychological changes in a matter of a few years of junior hockey, and yet you say 11 months makes no difference? I guess we agree to disagree.

For long term planning and roster management however, birth year absolutely matters.

I agree 10-12 months difference at 14-16/17 makes a difference; though, 6 months from 17/18-20 is splitting hairs imo.
The NHL September 15 cutoff has more to do with being 18 (adult) when first getting paid professionally.

 

[HockeyPops]

Pick your legit 22.

Why 22? Seems arbitrary.

 

[dirty12]

Why 22? Seems arbitrary.

Because 30 does not reflect the team on ice; only 20 play per game. Add 2 more that get in the line up semi regularly and can be expected to get 30+ GP.

 

[HockeyPops]

Because 30 does not reflect the team on ice; only 20 play per game. Add 2 more that get in the line up semi regularly and will get 30+ GP.

Should be the roster after the trade deadline however many that ends up being if you want to cull a few inconsequential players. Some teams carry 22, 23, 24 etc. But weighting it based on games played is even better. Then a player that plays every game has their age counted 68 times more than a player that plays one game. If that's how Quant Hockey does it I am fully behind them 100%

 

[Fischhaber]

.....and it seems ridiculous and pointless to me if you’re not just basing it on whether they’re in their 16,17,18,19 or 20 year old seasons. If team x has 6 17yo’s born in March and team y has 6 17yo’s born in September that’s a 3 year difference but in reality it matters NONE. They’re all just 17yo’s.

It stands to reason that different birthdays on different teams would balance out on average, especially with the great majority of players being born in earlier months. It's probably a non factor when it comes to average age.

Consider the Kitchener Rangers, whose latest birthdays are Stepien on September 19th and Ottavainen on August 12th. The rest of the roster is born before July. Most teams have a similar distribution.

 

[Houndsfan22]

How did their season go? They back doored the memorial cup and won 4 games. LOL but that season as a host team was TRASH and they had a first round exit.


Let's find a not host team?

Windsor May not have been a first round exit that year if they had that team any other year. The west was a very tough conference the year they won the Memorial Cup. Windsor was also a very good team before and after they added at the deadline. The top 5 were Erie, SSM, OS, London, Windsor. Windsor played London to 7 games with all but 1 game being very close in scoring. Game 7 London won 3-2. Unfortunately it turned out this way. Not to mention in the conference finals London and Erie went to 7 games with game 6 and 7 being overtime. Good conference.

 

[ohloutsider]

You make it sound like I am cherry picking information to support some predetermined hypothesis. Let me be clear. I am doing no such thing. Quant Hockey is deciding which players to include, not me.

I have no interest in calculating average age for OHL teams, and maintaining this information year to year or even throughout the season as the roster changes. If you want to calculate it on a per game basis based on who dressed that game, be my guest. This is way to much work for me. Rather, I was working to validate the conflicting information provided by the two sites. I figured once we understood how the sites were deriving their numbers and confirmed their accuracy, it would give us more insight into this question of which numbers were more accurate.

I have not been able to come up with a calculation to validate the numbers provided by Elite Prospects, so I have no idea how they are calculating it. If you are able to determine the methodology that they use, and the calculations line up with their numbers, please provide that information, and we can have a debate as to the veracity of their numbers based on which players' ages they include/exclude from the calculation.

The purpose of my earlier post was to share the methodology used at Quant Hockey, which I have validated. I did not choose the players that Quant Hockey is including/excluding. They did. Debating whether or not their methodology is the best approach is certainly a valid topic. The reason I am more comfortable using those numbers over the elite prospect numbers is that at least I know how those number were derived and can attest to their accuracy, given the methodology used. Again, I can't attest to the Elite Prospect numbers.

I don't know why you guys don't just consult the pizza guy - he probably has accurate numbers.

 

[HF92]

I don't know why you guys don't just consult the pizza guy - he probably has accurate numbers.

The pizza guy probably doesn't keep track of average age of team. :p