SSM Greyhounds 2019-20 Season Thread (Part 3)

[Fischhaber]

I apologize, I am looking pre turn of the century. That's how long I have been attending Hound games, actually since the NOHA. The quality of opportunities our goalies face are top end. This stat is subjective in our case. You kept throwing Vilalta under the bus too!

You're certainly a dedicated Hounds fan to be watching for that long.

The point of using roughly 400 examples (20 seasons x 20 teams) is to remove the subjectivity and variance from the results.

When you're number 1 in a sample of 400, it's a combination of everything, including bad goaltending and many scoring chances. No single factor can lead to a result that extreme.

On the oppoaite end of the spectrum, would you make the argument that Mike Murphy's .941 sv% in 2009 with the Bulls was entirely a result of the team defense? Of course not. He had one of the best seasons we've ever seen. The goalie always plays a large role in his own statistics and they can't be explained away entirely by the team.

 

[jjhound]

You're certainly a dedicated Hounds fan to be watching for that long.

The point of using roughly 400 examples (20 seasons x 20 teams) is to remove the subjectivity and variance from the results.

When you're number 1 in a sample of 400, it's a combination of everything, including bad goaltending and many scoring chances. No single factor can lead to a result that extreme.

On the oppoaite end of the spectrum, would you make the argument that Mike Murphy's .941 sv% in 2009 with the Bulls was entirely a result of the team defense? Of course not. He had one of the best seasons we've ever seen. The goalie always plays a large role in his own statistics and they can't be explained away entirely by the team.

But if stats are so indicative of a goalie's talent, using your example, Mike Murphy should have been a career NHL player. He only managed backup status in the AHL with one NHL appearance. So perhaps it was the team in front him.

 

[dirty12]

You're certainly a dedicated Hounds fan to be watching for that long.

The point of using roughly 400 examples (20 seasons x 20 teams) is to remove the subjectivity and variance from the results.

When you're number 1 in a sample of 400, it's a combination of everything, including bad goaltending and many scoring chances. No single factor can lead to a result that extreme.

On the oppoaite end of the spectrum, would you make the argument that Mike Murphy's .941 sv% in 2009 with the Bulls was entirely a result of the team defense? Of course not. He had one of the best seasons we've ever seen. The goalie always plays a large role in his own statistics and they can't be explained away entirely by the team.

Murphy’s SV% was very much a product of a very good defence first team

 

[Fischhaber]

But if stats are so indicative of a goalie's talent, using your example, Mike Murphy should have been a career NHL player. He only managed backup status in the AHL with one NHL appearance. So perhaps it was the team in front him.

Let's not go down this rabbit hole. NHL statistics do not always reflect the talent of the player in the OHL. Look no further than Wayne Groulx, Ryan Sproul, Josh Godfrey, etc.

 

[jjhound]

Let's not go down this rabbit hole. NHL statistics do not always reflect the talent of the player in the OHL. Look no further than Wayne Groulx, Ryan Sproul, Josh Godfrey, etc.

So you can use stats any way you wish to prove ones own point. You would be a good politician. Say what you want, use stats to prove your point, but when the stats disproves your point it is not relevant.

 

[DWI Dale]

i've never seen someone want to be RIGHT so bad in my entire life.

 

[count35]

Guys it’s so easy. I’ve blocked him and now I don’t have to even see his messages. Makes for a more enjoyable time?

 

[Pucksindeep94]

i've never seen someone want to be RIGHT so bad in my entire life.

How can’t you realize that there is room for both of you to atleast be a little bit right, and as is the way in sports, it’s a little of this narrative and a little of that one.

 

[BehindSooNet]

In 1980-81 John Vanbiesbrouck won the Dinty with a 4.14 goals against. I cannot find a save %. Not quite sure where you are finding turn of the century space % stats. But I am sure if he won the award with that GAA there must have been many save % worse than òur current years'.

Hi there. John Vanbiesbrouck's Save Percentage for the 1980-81 season was 0.894. Old stats like this are available in a document entitled "Scoring and Goaltending Statistics by Season: 1972/73 - 2018/19" compiled in August of 2019. This document can be found on the Hounds' website. Click on "Team" and then click on "Greyhounds' History" where you will see a heading "Year-by-Year Season Statistics".

The Dinty Award you referenced was for Best Rookie Goalie.

 

[jjhound]

Hi there. John Vanbiesbrouck's Save Percentage for the 1980-81 season was 0.894. Old stats like this are available in a document entitled "Scoring and Goaltending Statistics by Season: 1972/73 - 2018/19" compiled in August of 2019. This document can be found on the Hounds' website. Click on "Team" and then click on "Greyhounds' History" where you will see a heading "Year-by-Year Season Statistics".

The Dinty Award you referenced was for Best Rookie Goalie.

Thanks for the site, yes rookie goalie award.

 

[DWI Dale]

How can’t you realize that there is room for both of you to atleast be a little bit right, and as is the way in sports, it’s a little of this narrative and a little of that one.

his narrative was that we would finish near the top of the standings. when it didn't pan out he doubled down and started insulting people. fisch, is this your burner account?

 

[Pucksindeep94]

his narrative was that we would finish near the top of the standings. when it didn't pan out he doubled down and started insulting people. fisch, is this your burner account?

His narrative was always the team wasn’t playing as bad as results were showing , which he was able to quantify with numbers and facts.

yours was this teams defending was not good and left the goaltenders out to dry.

now stay with me here. What if we break it down in to stretches? They did have extended stretches where they played good d and we’re not rewarded for it,

and than they had stretches where no goalie in the league could have saved them.

this team was never as good as the streak they went on after just getting brkin , and never as bad as the stretch they had before getting him, it all lies somewhere in the middle.

that’s what happens with young and inexperienced teams

some may have been over enthusiastic at the start, but those thoughts were made when hayton was still on the table, regardless this team had a chance to be 6 in conference but a COMBINATION of poor defensive play at times and poor goaltending at times put them in this position.



No this is not a burner, and I’ll reveal another one of my socials soon as you do. Also as a person who’s remained a mostly silent observer, you have hailed your more than fair share of insults, when faced with numbers that atleast make sense(ie facing less shots should mean team is doing a good job preventing shots which is part of defence .. I think )

 

[DWI Dale]

ok fischhaber

 

[Pucksindeep94]

ok fischhaber

yeah I didn’t think you’d take up the offer on owning your identity while calling out mine.

imagine that you didn’t respond to any of the basis of my post must have been because you don’t got a leg to stand on.

I’ve never seen someone want to be right so bad in my life dale.

 

[DWI Dale]

My name is Dale. What's yours?

You seem to be taking this mighty personal for a guy with 15 posts.

 

[HockeyPops]

It's not either-or. Last I checked this is a team game, and it's the whole team's responsibility to keep the puck out of their net. Our defensemen and forwards have struggled for stretches this season, as have our goalies.

Taylor has never really earned the coaches trust as a starter.

Propp never earned the trust of the players and you could see it affected the way they played in front of him.

Brkin gets the most out of his defensemen because he is such a good communicator, and has had success by keeping the players from shirking responsibilities.

Malik has had success because he is a stud.

The coach says that the players are keeping each other accountable, so hopefully with constant attention, the players who continue to have defensive breakdowns will shore up that part of their game.

 

[Houndsfan22]

His narrative was always the team wasn’t playing as bad as results were showing ,

Just watched the defense turn the puck over for a 2 on 0 leading to Hamilton scoring. Yeah they're playing badly.

 

[DWI Dale]

another 5 goal game against with 4 minutes remaining.

tough to watch the same guys get burned every single game.

 

[dirty12]

His narrative was always the team wasn’t playing as bad as results were showing , which he was able to quantify with numbers and facts.

yours was this teams defending was not good and left the goaltenders out to dry.

now stay with me here. What if we break it down in to stretches? They did have extended stretches where they played good d and we’re not rewarded for it,

and than they had stretches where no goalie in the league could have saved them.

this team was never as good as the streak they went on after just getting brkin , and never as bad as the stretch they had before getting him, it all lies somewhere in the middle.

that’s what happens with young and inexperienced teams

some may have been over enthusiastic at the start, but those thoughts were made when hayton was still on the table, regardless this team had a chance to be 6 in conference but a COMBINATION of poor defensive play at times and poor goaltending at times put them in this position.



No this is not a burner, and I’ll reveal another one of my socials soon as you do. Also as a person who’s remained a mostly silent observer, you have hailed your more than fair share of insults, when faced with numbers that atleast make sense(ie facing less shots should mean team is doing a good job preventing shots which is part of defence .. I think )

The narrative was that the team was elite -see Corsi- and if not for awful goaltending, the hounds would be at or near the top of the conference. Closer to the truth is half of the D core never really allowed the goalies much of a chance to post an average SV%

 

[DWI Dale]

fenwick and corsi are great tools when utilized correctly in tandem with other stats and game tape review.

but the numbers presented here the last few months are not corsi or fenwick, they are straight up comparisons of team shot totals which is not how possession is measured.

shot differential is calculated based on season averages for shots, not a per game basis.

 

[Old hound]

Getting tired of seeing the same defensive mistakes game after game. It’s time for some of the responsibility to be on the defence coach. This defence has not improved all year, making the same mistakes game after game. Since Joe Corelli left the defence has stunk!

 

[DWI Dale]

As of this snowy SSM morning the hounds are 3 points back on Erie, with Erie having 2 games in hand. I checked to see if any of our remaining games were against the Otters but no such luck (a 4 point game could help us greatly right now).

I would suggest that the hounds need to play .550 to .600 hockey in order to make the playoffs. Going to be a tough grind from here to the end and could come down to the final games of the season.

 

[HockeyPops]

Maybe even more unless Erie really goes on a skid. Let's take a look at some numbers.

If the Hounds get 15 points out of the remaining 13 games (.577 win rate) they will finish with 67 points.

Erie must get only 11 points in 15 games (.367 win rate) to finish at 66 points. Chances of this happening are slim to none. More likely our "chance" would be if Erie finishes their last 15 games with a win rate between .450 - .475; that translates to 14 points and they would finish at 69 points.

We need 18 points in 13 games to reach 70 points. That's a .692 win rate. If we get to 70 we have a decent chance. Won't be easy, but if you wanted to put a number on it, I think that's the number.

 

[DWI Dale]

ya i should reclassify my number as a floor value to even stand a chance in hell as it relies on Erie playing similar to / or worse than they have over their last 10 games. and i suppose it goes without saying that we need to be better than .500

given the difficulty of our remaining games .692 could be a tall ask although not impossible.

 

[soo hound girl]

Put a fork in it I think we are done according to those numbers just take the 4th overall pick and focus on next year
Even if we made the playoffs we will probably be out in 4 or 5 games so I would rather get a top pick that might help us next season