SSM Greyhounds 2019-20 Season Thread (Part 3)

[HockeyPops]

Goal Share Project

So, I have been working on this project for a little while and I am finally ready to share. The purpose is to provide an alternative to plus/minus (not a great stat) when looking at who is on the ice for goals for and against.

Unfortunately we don't have ice time statistics for the players, or else we could look at things like GF/60, GA/60 etc.

What I decided to do was look at Goal Share. Why Goal Share? Well, it takes into account volume since it's a percent of total goals scored while you were on the ice. Goal differential doesn't (ie. a goal differential of +3 is great if you were on for 3 goals for and 0 goals against, but just ok if it was 53 for/50 against).

Methodology. Time consuming data dump from the OHL website for this season's Greyhound games. Recorded each goal scored and who was on the ice for each. Marked whether it was even strength or PP/PK. Marked whether a goalie was pulled. For the time being, I am filtering out any goals that were not even strength or if a goalie was not in the net (at either end). My intent was to see how each player was performing at even strength after filtering out the noise.

Results

Here is a table of the results. In my opinion, anyone with a relatively high goal share percent is performing well compared to their teammates in their current usage, and is a potential candidate for more ice time or moving up the lineup to play against tougher competition. The reverse is true for low percentage. In the table below I have both the full season to date (including last night's games), as well as the last 10 games. YTD, this methodology includes 152 goals for and 155 goals against. Feel free to ask any questions or post any comments. Enjoy.

	All				L10
	F	A	GS%		F	A	GS%
6 Holmes	20	11	65%		4	0	100%
37 Roth	4	3	57%
23 Kerins	58	47	55%		10	6	63%
26 Pytlik	49	40	55%		3	12	20%
21 O'Rourke	57	47	55%		4	11	27%
12 Kartye	53	45	54%		8	14	36%
24 MacKay	41	35	54%		7	3	70%
19 Carroll	38	34	53%		5	4	56%
18 Trott	55	51	52%		5	13	28%
11 Constantinou	47	45	51%		9	10	47%
28 Watson	8	8	50%		3	0	100%
13 Boudreau	20	21	49%		2	1	67%
7 Wawrow	28	30	48%		3	2	60%
3 Wale	32	35	48%
8 LeGuerrier	60	70	46%		9	14	39%
71 Dickinson	34	42	45%		6	5	55%
9 Calisti	53	66	45%		13	13	50%
15 Johnston	35	44	44%		6	7	46%
20 Peca	37	47	44%		5	9	36%
25 Mufarreh	9	15	38%		1	1	50%
14 McLean	13	25	34%		3	1	75%
17 Halushak	4	10	29%		0	1	0%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[DWI Dale]

thank you very much for sharing. it's too bad we also don't have more access to Quality of Competition and zone start info. I always feel like the quality of opponent and players role is integral to understanding any individual stats.

for example holmes having a 65% "goal share" may not reveal that he is mostly deployed in the O-zone or playing sheltered minutes against lesser opponents. a player with poor goal share may be killing penalties and sent out for defensive zone faceoffs.

we really need a holistic approach when interpreting stats to avoid cherry picking and confirmation bias.

 

[HockeyPops]

@DWI Dale agree wholeheartedly, wish there were more info available. Also agree deployment matters; players performing well at current deployment levels may be ready for additional responsibility. Be careful trying to compare two players because of different deployment. Great example would be LeGuerrier and Holmes. LeGuerrier is getting many first pairing minutes, maybe there is someone else we can try with some of those minutes. Holmes is excellent in limited third pairing minutes, maybe he can take on some second pairing assignments.

Also wanted to reiterate that these stats don't include powerplay or penalty kill goals. They also don't include goals scored for or against while either goalie is pulled.

It's far from perfect, yet I found it useful enough.

 

[HockeyPops]

Goal Share Project (cont'd)

Defensive Pairings

Here is a look at our defensive pairings on the season. Looking at the same criteria as the above post (just even strength goals). Obviously we don't know what the strength of competition or deployment was, but even so we notice some things immediately.
- Calisti and Constantinou is probably our worst pairing (9 & 11). Great on the PP, but bad at even strength. Glad we have finally gotten away from it.
- O'Rourke and Contantinou may be our best top line pairing (11 & 21). Glad to see Dean going with them now.
- Calisti and LeGuerrier do pretty well together (8 & 9), perhaps they might dominate against slightly easier competition (ie. split between 2nd and 3rd line minutes).
- Wawrow (7) has been playing pretty well in a shut down role, and with Holmes has yet to let in a goal against (6 & 7). I wonder how those two would fair together with some second line matchups?
- Halushak (17) is clearly our 7th defender.

	All
	F	A	GS%
6 & 7	5	0	100%
6 & 8	6	5	55%
6 & 9	0	1	0%
6 & 11	5	2	71%
6 & 17
6 & 21	3	2	60%
7 & 8	5	7	42%
7 & 9	3	7	30%
7 & 11	3	1	75%
7 & 17	1	2	33%
7 & 21	5	4	56%
8 & 9	22	24	48%
8 & 11	6	6	50%
8 & 17	0	2	0%
8 & 21	20	22	48%
9 & 11	11	18	38%
9 & 17	1	4	20%
9 & 21	5	5	50%
11 & 17	0	2	0%
11 & 21	16	12	57%
17 & 21	2	1	67%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

- Holmes has been playing some fantastic hockey. He hasn't been on for a goal against since Jan 12. Since that game he has been on for 9 even strength goals for, and 2 pp goals for. Unless he is injured, I cannot understand why he is not dressing and playing meaningful minutes. I truly believe he is capable of taking on top 4 minutes next season, but get him out there.
- Just went through the stats and looked at the 5 games that Wawrow and Holmes (6 & 7) have been on the ice when a goal was scored:
- Sept 27 - 2nd goal. Won 5-2
- Oct 11 - 8th goal. Won 7-1
- Nov 24 - 4th goal. Won 5-2
- Dec 5 - 4th goal. Won 5-1
- Feb 8 - 8th goal. Won 10-1

 

[Hardcore Techno]

Hounds are going to struggle to put contending teams on the ice now. I seriously hope we do not host the mem cup next year.

 

[HockeyPops]

I seriously hope you are disappointed.

 

[BehindSooNet]

Thanks to North Bay for their upset win over Erie tonight - despite being outshot 40 to 15! Keeps us in the hunt...

 

[soo hound girl]

Hounds are going to struggle to put contending teams on the ice now. I seriously hope we do not host the mem cup next year.

You don’t make much sense care to elaborate?

 

[Hardcore Techno]

I just did.

 

[Savard18]

We have an incredible amount of returnees and it's been pretty universally agreed upon as being a sign we will be very deep. I still think we lack in 3 areas.

1) Defense. I don't think we need to analyze this any further. Everyone but Fisch sees we aren't good defensively.

2) Lack of star power. Perhaps not picking in the 2nd round for a while and trading away a few first round prospects has finally caught up to us but I don't see any game changers who can take over a game.

3) Draft picks. Any substantial moves comparable to those we made in 2018 or 2015 would literally empty our cupboards for years to come. Some will suggest we can recoup picks at a later date but if it's so easy why didn't we do it last year?

It's going to be an interesting off-season.

Exactly how I see it. I think the Greyhounds will be all a year older much improved but in an OHL host year, can they catch, let alone pass other OHL teams who are going to load up with the assets they have?

 

[Savard18]

You don’t make much sense care to elaborate?

No he doesn’t. And apparently, no he doesn’t.

 

[Texcanuck]

Sarnia here. We’ve gone 78 days without a home win. Closing in on a league record. It’s become sort of a sad joke. Please don’t mess this up today!!

 

[HockeyPops]

Prospect Update

Figured it was a good time to post a prospect update since the NOJHL is wrapping up the regular season today. Next year will be an interesting year, looking to contend with probably only 4 roster spots up for grabs. Likely two spots are taken by our 2020 draft class, so who grabs the other two spots? Most likely is probably D'Intino and Parsons (our highest remaining unsigned picks from last year), but let's take a look at some other less likely options.

2019, 11th - Savard, Tyler. Just got edged out by Mitchell Martin for most points per game of all 2003 born in the NOJHL (1.16 VS 1.18). Martin, a 4th rounder for Kitchener, was just signed two weeks ago. Savard will have a tougher time making next year's Hounds with only a few spots up for grabs, but all in all a great campaign for an 11th rounder.

2018, 11th - Brown, Finn. Another 11th round pick, this 2002 born had another good season in the OJHL managing 54 pts in 53 games. He is an RPI commit, but if the Hounds could ever lure him away from NCAA, this 6'4" 188lb forward might be the type of impact signing that can produce for a contender next year.

2018, 12th - Caufield, Cole. It will be interesting to see what transpires for Cole Caufield. He opted to go NCAA to play with Alex Turcotte and his older brother Brock. Brock didn't have a great year though; after notching 12 points in 37 games the season prior, he only managed 3 pts in 29 games. Cole put up 36 points in 34 games on a sub par Wisconsin team that had an overall record of 14-18-2. Next year doesn't look much better for Wisconsin either. If Cole doesn't make Montreal out of camp, does he opt to leave Wisconsin to take a run at a championship with the Hounds?

2017, 5th - Beecher, John. Another long shot to lure away from NCAA. Power forward would make an immediate big impact if Raftis was to ever land him here.

 

[soo hound girl]

You don’t make much sense care to elaborate?

As the Nelk Boys would say your a certified Beuty

 

[DWI Dale]

Re: Prospects Update

Totally acknowledging that I am a hounds/OHL homer, I feel like Caulfield could use playing with/against CHL talent. I expected him to be a dominant force for team USA for the World Jr's but was pretty underwhelmed, going so far as to describe him as "soft". Didn't always seem to know how to use his team mates or something.

I wonder what led to Beecher being picked in the 5th. Raftis didn't seem to think it was very likely we'd see Caulfield or Brown in using an 11th round pick, but he took Beecher with a much higher pick. Perhaps Beecher wasn't sold on the NCAA at the time or perhaps it is suspected he may be willing to play for an OHL contender?

 

[DWI Dale]

maybe selecting beecher was to keep him from the knights hahaha

 

[three dog night]

Sarnia here. We’ve gone 78 days without a home win. Closing in on a league record. It’s become sort of a sad joke. Please don’t mess this up today!!

Thought Niagara was bad although last home win January 23.

 

[Old hound]

Must win this afternoon after Erie lost this afternoon. But like all year penalties are killing us again. Hope for a strong 3rd. It’s now or never.

 

[Hardcore Techno]

Erie keeps losing. Lmao. Erie is gifting the Hounds every game. But no, Hounds find ways to lose.

 

[Hardcore Techno]

Windsor scored 10 goals today. I thought the Hounds were playing Sarnia.

 

[Hardcore Techno]

Hounds struggling vs the mighty Sting.

 

[Fischhaber]

Hounds struggling vs the mighty Sting.

Outshooting them 30-17 and behind by 1 goal isn't struggling mightily.

 

[Hardcore Techno]

Stats, ha.

 

[Hardcore Techno]

So Erie can lose its last 8 games and still make the playoffs. Ha.

 

[newhound777]

That stunk! Up 2-0 and go down 3-4 to the Sting. We needed a win!