NHL GMs are not generous in giving up 1st round picks for impending UFAs. The past 10 deadlines highlight that:
Year | Total | Guaranteed | Conditional | Players Dealt |
2009 | 1 | 1 | 0 | Comrie (Traded With RFA Campoli, Though) |
2010 | 1 | 1 | 0 | Kovalchuk |
2011 | 1 | 1 | 0 | Kaberle |
2012 | 1 | 1 | 0 | Gaustad |
2013 | 4 | 2 | 2 | Iginla, Miller (Condition On Other Pick Not Met), Jagr |
2014 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
2015 | 3 | 3 | 0 | Sekera, Vermette, Franson |
2016 | 2 | 1 | 1 | Ladd, Russell (Condition Not Met) |
2017 | 3 | 2 | 1 | Hanzal, Shattenkirk, Eaves |
2018 | 3 | 2 | 1 | Kane, Nash, Stastny |
Average | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | |
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Broaden the horizon out to a year instead of ~20 games + playoffs and you only add Burns, Vanek and Lucic to that mix. It’s really the wingers with the intangibles that NHL GMs love that have been getting those picks that aren’t dependent on playoff performance or a contract extension. Skinner isn’t that type of player.
There’s some good and bad there:
+ He has the ability to be 35+ goal caliber as the primary option on his line and elevate lesser talented players
+ He’ll be a relatively young UFA at 27; there are some prime years left if a team re-signs him
+ He knows he has to be around the net to score goals
- Kane set the market; a team will have to give him at least $7 mil x 7 or see walk if he bounces back
- He’s coming off of a down season in which he scored just 24 goals
- He does shy away from contact on the forecheck and is not a physical player
- His playmaking ability is underwhelming
- He’s frustratingly inconsistent on the defensive side of the puck
- He doesn't have the reputation as a leader or winner
Add in the litany of other 2019 UFA wings that teams may become available (Pacioretty, Panarin, Stone, Simmonds, Eberle, etc.) increasing the supply in the market and it’s not impossible that his NMC played a negligible role here. We could have been overestimating his trade value.