Sheldon Keefe Discussion

[Dekes For Days]

Among D, drafted in the first two rounds who become top-4 D the median age for them becoming full-time in the NHL is younger than Sandin is now, and the median age for them becoming top-4 in the NHL is about the age Sandin is now.

Your claims have already been proven to be completely baseless, incorrect, and highly misleading.

Your Dubas quote is incomplete and cherry-picked from an article largely about the Orlando Solar Bears ECHL team 6 years ago, and its inclusion in the Leaf's development process. The conclusion you have extrapolated from that specific portion of his quote is in many ways the exact opposite of what he was suggesting throughout that interview.

He discusses the importance of not rushing your prospects, letting prospects earn opportunities, and letting prospects go through the development process that's right for them, regardless of how things have been traditionally viewed in the past (for example, that ECHL = garbage). This is discussed in this post you conveniently ignored:

It's interesting how you simultaneously accuse Dubas of being horrible at development, for doing things that everybody else does and have been historically perfectly normal in the development of top-4 defensemen, but at the same time, hold a cherry-picked, incomplete portion of one answer of his from one interview (largely about the Orlando Solar Bears) from almost 6 years ago before he was GM, as the one and only gospel on development.

I'm not sure how you twisted his statement that basically amounts to the importance of patience, into a narrative about developmental incompetence because Sandin wasn't handed a spot on a competitive team out of camp. You create insanely specific and arbitrary rules, and accuse others of not understanding development, when the first thing anybody should know about development is that there is no one perfect way for all players in all situations, especially during a global pandemic that has delayed or cancelled countless leagues.

For the record, this was the question that was asked...

Don: The organization has talked a change in philosophy toward prospects, and not pushing them, letting them develop in their own time and then moving them up, talk about that and how that might affect the number of players that might be here in Orlando from the Toronto organization. I get the sense that you're looking to have more players than were here last year, down.

And if you'd read it, you'd know it's mainly in regards to the Orlando organization's inclusion in the development process. Actually, it's pretty hilarious because the main takeaways are about not rushing your prospects before they're ready, and not getting hung up on the league somebody is in or giving in to pressure to play somebody somewhere - instead just focusing on what's best for their development. In the previous question, he discusses how moving down a league and being patient has helped some of their players.

In the part you highlighted, he references Carrick and Percy, but that's because, unlike Sandin, they weren't remotely close to ready to be in the NHL and hadn't actually proven themselves worthy of a shot through their play in the AHL, but were pushed to the NHL anyway. This is not the same situation as Sandin. Sandin was not pinballed, and Sandin had proven himself to be worthy of a shot in the NHL. He was not ready at the beginning of the year, and was sent down. He then went on to play really well in the AHL, and won top defenseman at the WJC. He had earned another shot, and there was an opening caused by extensive injuries to the Leaf's defense, including a player who was most similar in style, position, and role.

Was Sandin good enough to play in that situation and get some experience? Yes, he earned his shot, and showed some good signs.

Was Sandin good enough to warrant handing him a spot out of camp, and limiting depth signings on a competitive team, especially when they needed so much defensive depth the year prior? No.

That doesn't mean that Sandin is bad, or failing, or being developed poorly. He's still really young, and we have great depth this year, with no injuries thus far. By the logic you are using, Sandin would be developing just fine if he didn't play in the NHL last year, which doesn't make sense to start with, but then if Toronto had all those injuries and didn't play Sandiin after great AHL play and WJC top defensemen, you'd be complaining about his development just the same. No matter what Toronto did, you would have used it to claim "bad development".

The development track Sandin is on is perfectly normal, even for high-quality NHL defensemen. Your claims are baseless.

As mentioned, you have created a set of insanely specific and arbitrary (and in some cases, contradictory) rules for development based on an incorrect extrapolation of one partial quote from 6 years ago, and you accuse others of not understanding development, when the first thing anybody should know about development is that there is no one perfect way for all players in all situations, especially during a global pandemic that has delayed or cancelled countless leagues. Anybody who understood development would know this.

Instead of admitting you were incorrect, you have decided to skew your data by including lottery picks, to misrepresent how Sandin compares. The median age for successful defensemen (including top-4 and top-pairing) drafted within 15th overall and 45th overall making their NHL team full-time has been in their D+4 season. Sandin just started his D+3 season.

Yes, I noticed that too - quite misleading. And that's on top of the already misleading criteria, as unlike Sandin, most defensemen don't reach the AHL until at least their D+3.

I was curious, so I went back and looked at the drafts through the cap era. I took any defensemen that was picked between 15th overall and 45th overall, and then I removed the defensemen who had played less than the equivalent of two full seasons (164 GP), or less than 100 GP if within the last 5 drafts. I then looked at when each defenseman made the NHL full-time (played over half a season).

Sandin is in the beginning of his D+3 season.

1 defenseman made the NHL full-time in their D+1 season.
8 defenseman made the NHL full-time in their D+2 season.
6 defenseman made the NHL full-time in their D+3 season.
15 defenseman made the NHL full-time in their D+4 season.
10 defenseman made the NHL full-time in their D+5 season.
7 defenseman made the NHL full-time in their D+6 season.
3 defenseman made the NHL full-time in their D+7 season.

Each grouping features top-pairing defensemen, other than D+7. There is zero reason to believe there is anything wrong with Sandin's development. Biotk's claims are baseless.

As usual, you fail to address any of it; instead endlessly repeating the same disproven claims, that didn't have anything to do with this thread in the first place. There is zero reason to believe there is anything wrong with Sandin's development, or the way Toronto is developing its defensemen. Sandin is on track and developing just fine.

 

[zeke]

Since Keefe (Nov. 21, 2019 - 58gms)

All-Situations (i.e. Total Team Stats):

#5 Pts%
#4 ROW%

#6 GF%
#5 xGF%
#6 SF%
#8 CF%

#21 SV%


Offense Only

#1 GF/60
#3 xGF/60
#5 SF/60
#7 CF/60

Defense Only

#17 GA/60
#10 xGA/60
#14 SA/60
#13 CA/60


Obviously elite offensively, but creeping up to legit good defensively, too. Above average defensively already.

Goaltending may be an issue, though.

 

[sxvnert]

Once everyone returns to health I beleive the lines moving forward are obvious.

Hyman Matthews Marner
Robertson Tavares Nylander
Thornton Spezza Simmonds
Mikheyev Kerfoot Vesey
Boyd\Petan

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Once everyone returns to health I beleive the lines moving forward are obvious.

Hyman Matthews Marner
Robertson Tavares Nylander
Thornton Spezza Simmonds
Mikheyev Kerfoot Vesey
Boyd\Petan

I don't think they are obvious at all ... they will continue to shift as Keefe has done all year with goal of putting best lineup on ice to win that game ... Tavares and Wiily need a puck retriever who can grind in corners and cause havoc in front of net so either Hyman or Simmonds ... Thornton and Spezz will never play together as it is flat out too slow 5 on 5 .. and I don't think Vesey will be on our playoff roster ... we will likely have a bigger stronger add to come who is cheap (Vesey gets cut then)

 

[Oscar Peterson]

I want to see a few more games of Thornton playing with Matthews and Marner. That line was dominating puck possession and cycling but just hadn't figured out how to make the dangerous passes to actually score. Now that Matthews and Marner are clearly warmed up I could honestly see that line going off.

Ideally our forward lines end up something like
Thornton Matthews Marner
Hyman Tavares Nylander
Mikheyev Kerfoot Simmonds
Petan/Engvall/Spezza/Boyd (some combination)

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

Hard not to like a 127 point pace! LOL

While I obviously don't expect them to maintain this pace, it makes me laugh a little because obviously such a performance would completely shatter any previous club record and I can already hear the "Yeah but he didn't actually break 105" coupled with "but Canadian division".

 

[Menzinger]

Still wild it won't be until next season for him to have a "normal" 82 game season with preseason ect.

 

[tmlfan98]

(That line has never played together btw)

He probably forgot Engvall was in that game.

I didn't forget that Engvall played in that game, I was just too lazy to point out Shilton's mistake. My point remains that the one game Joey Anderson played the 4th line looked pretty good. I think Engvall-Boyd-Anderson and Anderson-Boyd-Spezza both need looks considering Keefe is rotating a lot on the 4th line anyways.

 

[zeke]

I didn't forget that Engvall played in that game, I was just too lazy to point out Shilton's mistake. My point remains that the one game Joey Anderson played the 4th line looked pretty good. I think Engvall-Boyd-Anderson and Anderson-Boyd-Spezza both need looks considering Keefe is rotating a lot on the 4th line anyways.

we were saying that Keefe forgot, not that you forgot.

keefe made the mistake.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

Still wild it won't be until next season for him to have a "normal" 82 game season with preseason ect.

Kinda bugs me that these interrupted seasons affect the kids' onslaught on the franchise record books.

 

[zeke]

Since we signed Tavares.

Big 4 TOI under Babcock ----> under Keefe

Matthews 16:04ev/2:47pp --> 18:24ev/3:05pp (+14.0%)
Marner 15:27ev/2:42pp -------> 17:09ev/3:09pp (+11.9%)
Tavares 16:09ev/2:40pp ------> 16:41ev/2:52pp (+3.9%)
Nylander 14:03ev/2:10pp ----> 15:07ev/2:47pp (+10.9%)

Sometimes it helps to have a coach who doesn't try to outsmart himself.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

 

[RogerR]

I was going to post this. What a job Keefe has done. Screw Babcock.

 

[Notsince67]

Yes, I noticed that too - quite misleading. And that's on top of the already misleading criteria, as unlike Sandin, most defensemen don't reach the AHL until at least their D+3.

I was curious, so I went back and looked at the drafts through the cap era. I took any defensemen that was picked between 15th overall and 45th overall, and then I removed the defensemen who had played less than the equivalent of two full seasons (164 GP), or less than 100 GP if within the last 5 drafts. I then looked at when each defenseman made the NHL full-time (played over half a season).

Sandin is in the beginning of his D+3 season.

1 defenseman made the NHL full-time in their D+1 season.
8 defenseman made the NHL full-time in their D+2 season.
6 defenseman made the NHL full-time in their D+3 season.
15 defenseman made the NHL full-time in their D+4 season.
10 defenseman made the NHL full-time in their D+5 season.
7 defenseman made the NHL full-time in their D+6 season.
3 defenseman made the NHL full-time in their D+7 season.

Each grouping features top-pairing defensemen, other than D+7. There is zero reason to believe there is anything wrong with Sandin's development. Biotk's claims are baseless.

This is pretty cool. Thanks

 

[Gallagbi]

(That line has never played together btw)

Engvall was on the left, no?

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

I was going to post this. What a job Keefe has done. Screw Babcock.

He's been great. Only Vegas/Pittsburgh/Washington have a worse SV% than us in the top 15 over that stretch as well. If we start getting decent goaltending from Fred or others this team can go places.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Since Keefe (Nov. 21, 2019 - 58gms)

All-Situations (i.e. Total Team Stats):

#5 Pts%
#4 ROW%

#6 GF%
#5 xGF%
#6 SF%
#8 CF%

#21 SV%


Offense Only

#1 GF/60
#3 xGF/60
#5 SF/60
#7 CF/60

Defense Only

#17 GA/60
#10 xGA/60
#14 SA/60
#13 CA/60


Obviously elite offensively, but creeping up to legit good defensively, too. Above average defensively already.

Goaltending may be an issue, though.

Everything above matches the eye test. Hard to believe how long it's been since I've felt good about the defense and/or defensive structure. I mean, when was the last time the team was hemmed in their own zone getting cycled like a bunch of rodeo clowns? I can't even remember.

 

[hockeynorth]

He's been great. Only Vegas/Pittsburgh/Washington have a worse SV% than us in the top 15 over that stretch as well. If we start getting decent goaltending from Fred or others this team can go places.

LOL I wouldn't have guessed it'd be those teams either, those are some good teams!

 

[hockeynorth]

Once everyone returns to health I beleive the lines moving forward are obvious.

Hyman Matthews Marner
Robertson Tavares Nylander
Thornton Spezza Simmonds
Mikheyev Kerfoot Vesey
Boyd\Petan

I don't think they're all that obvious. I think we see something like:

Thornton-Matthews-Marner <-- That line was dominating
Hyman-Tavares-Nylander <-- JT/Willy get their puck retriever
Mikheyev-Kerfoot-Simmonds <-- Simmonds has been good in the top 9
Robertson/Engvall-Spezza-Boyd/Vesey <-- This line I'd imagine is relatively fluid, Robertson and Vesey both give us special team options though.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

LOL I wouldn't have guessed it'd be those teams either, those are some good teams!

I mean Holtby and Murray had rough years last year so they make sense.

Very surprised in Vegas but they had a brutal stetch before acquiring Lehner last year.

 

[RogerR]

He's been great. Only Vegas/Pittsburgh/Washington have a worse SV% than us in the top 15 over that stretch as well. If we start getting decent goaltending from Fred or others this team can go places.

Goaltending is easily the biggest concern right now. Freddy's numbers are ugly, again

 

[NikoEhlers]

Everything above matches the eye test. Hard to believe how long it's been since I've felt good about the defense and/or defensive structure. I mean, when was the last time the team was hemmed in their own zone getting cycled like a bunch of rodeo clowns? I can't even remember.

It has overall looked better to start season here, but last season we didnt have good structure, lot of blown coverage as a result of blueline pinching more under Keefe. The data is not good at measuring differences between chances and defending in front of net

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

It has overall looked better to start season here, but last season we didnt have good structure, lot of blown coverage as a result of blueline pinching more under Keefe. The data is not good at measuring differences between chances and defending in front of net

Last year we also had a top 4 of Marincin/Holl/Barrie/Dermott for much of that season. The defense was grosss.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

9-2-1 can't argue with the record.

 

[darrylsittler27]

That's the problem when you are winning you don't notice you have no 3rd line. Then your top 4 dries up.