Sheldon Keefe Discussion

[Pookie]

It's hilarious that you're in a hockey discussion, deflecting to blind appeals to authority in an entirely different sport, because you don't actually have anything to support any of your claims, and you're telling others to focus.

I've been focused on the discussion the whole time. There isn't any significant difference between this year and other years in terms of variation in opponent quality, and there is still a lot of value that can be gained from league-wide statistics. You don't get to arbitrarily ignore all data just because it overwhelmingly shows pretty much everything you've said in here to be wrong.

doss the idea that you have been using statistics inappropriately really cause this much dissonance?

I mean seriously.

You are shown that technically, you can’t compare Keefe’s stats to a coach’s stats in another division to make a point on a message board.

of course we can compare observations. Hell 65 writers could vote on it.

but accenting your observations with a stat would carry an asterisk.

“*” <—— that is what this is all about? Seriously?

 

[Dekes For Days]

doss the idea that you have been using statistics inappropriately really cause this much dissonance?

I haven't been using statistics inappropriately. You're just attempting to dodge answering for your incorrect statements by arbitrarily dismissing anything that doesn't fit your narrative.

You are shown that technically, you can’t compare Keefe’s stats to a coach’s stats in another division

You haven't shown this at all. You were wrong. Time to accept it.

 

[Dekes For Days]

There's also not a major sports league in the world where every team plays every team equally. The notion this somehow means that no statistical cross comparisons can be made in those leagues is absurd.

Even during a normal season in the NHL, teams don't face each other equally. Yet 99.999% of hockey fans and media analysts would have little issue comparing players across divisions and conferences

Teams don't face each other even close to equally in a "normal" year. And they face each other at different times, on hot or cold streaks. They face each other with varying levels of injury for either their own team or opponents. They face different amounts of starters and backups. They get different amounts of back to backs. Travel is different. Etc, etc, etc. Clearly it's absurd to suddenly throw out all data due to a different schedule configuration, especially when there is no evidence of any significant difference between the quality of the divisions.

 

[Mickey Marner]

There's also not a major sports league in the world where every team plays every team equally. The notion this somehow means that no statistical cross comparisons can be made in those leagues is absurd.

Even during a normal season in the NHL, teams don't face each other equally. Yet 99.999% of hockey fans and media analysts would have little issue comparing players across divisions and conferences

The most popular sport in the world does in all the top leagues, but I agree with your overall point.

 

[Pookie]

I haven't been using statistics inappropriately. You're just attempting to dodge answering for your incorrect statements by arbitrarily dismissing anything that doesn't fit your narrative.

You haven't shown this at all. You were wrong. Time to accept it.

All the best. I recognize that there is no win in here for anyone in this thread in continuing to reply.

I could point out the absurdity of trying to equate this season with others that have unbalanced schedules and injuries. An argument that I’ve never made.

but what’s the point? Ya just don’t get it.

For whatever reason... this is a big deal to think you do get it.

The last word is yours monsieur.

I will think of you every time I hear of an NCAA AP Poll.

 

[Morbo]

Poor Pookie.

has to be killing him to see this Dubas Leaf team near the top.

all those keystrokes wasted.

 

[zeke]

Since Keefe:


Matthews: 91gms, 21:44toi, 60gl/100pt pace, 57.8xgf% (+4.5rel)
Marner: 89gms, 22:29toi, 27gl/100pt pace, 57.7xgf% (+5.0rel)
Hyman: 90gms, 19:16toi, 32gl/62pt pace, 57.3xgf% (+4.1rel)

Tavares: 95gms, 19:06toi, 32gl/78pt pace, 55.9xgf% (+1.8rel)
Nylander: 88gms, 17:29toi, 35gl/72pt pace, 56.2xgf% (+2.4rel)
FoliPPGno: 2gms, 16:37toi, 0gl/82pt pace, 61.5xgf% (+7.7rel)

Kerfoot: 92gms, 14:29toi, 11gl/35pt pace, 51.7xgf% (-3.4rel)
Mikheyev: 62gms, 14:28toi, 13gl/36pt pace, 54.7xgf% (-1.3rel)
Galchenyuk: 18gms, 14:02toi, 9gl/32pt pace, 61.6xgf% (+1.8rel)

Spezza: 91gms, 10:48toi, 14gl/38pt pace, 51.9xgf% (-3.7rel)
Thornton: 36gms, 13:45toi, 9gl/32pt pace, 55.2xgf% (-2.3rel)
Simmonds: 30gms, 11:57toi, 19gl/25pt pace, 57.1xgf% (-0.2rel)

Brooks: 12gms, 8:18toi, 14gl/41pt pace, 50.2xgf% (-4.0rel)
Engvall: 84gms, 11:57toi, 11gl/23pt pace, 51.8xgf% (-3.2rel)
Robertson: 6gms, 9:26toi, 0gl/14pt pace, 57.5xgf% (-0.5rel)


Rielly: 72gms, 23:36toi, 5gl/46pt pace, 54.1xgf% (-2.8rel)
Muzzin: 77gms, 21:33toi, 5gl/33pt pace, 57.3xgf% (+3.6rel)

Brodie: 48gms, 21:29toi, 2gl/22pt pace, 55.8xgf% (+0.0rel)
Holl: 95gms, 20:46toi, 3gl/25pt pace, 55.0xgf% (+0.6rel)

Dermott: 89gms, 15:34toi, 5gl/13pt pace, 55.0xgf% (+0.4rel)
Bogosian: 45gms, 14:32toi, 0gl/7pt pace, 57.0xgf% (+1.6rel)

Sandin: 26gms, 14:28toi, 3gl/25pt pace, 49.1xgf% (-4.7rel)
Liljegren: 11gms, 10:18toi, 0gl/8pt pace, 36.6xgf% (-16.8rel)


Andersen: 58gms, .904sv%, 107pt pace, -0.09gsaa/60
Campbell: 22gms, .920sv%, 127pt pace, +0.38gsaa/60

Hutchinson: 17gms, .905sv%, 87pt pace, -0.05gsaa/60
Rittich: 3gms, .877sv%, 41pt pace, -0.82gsaa/60

 

[Golden_Jet]

Teams don't face each other even close to equally in a "normal" year. And they face each other at different times, on hot or cold streaks. They face each other with varying levels of injury for either their own team or opponents. They face different amounts of starters and backups. They get different amounts of back to backs. Travel is different. Etc, etc, etc. Clearly it's absurd to suddenly throw out all data due to a different schedule configuration, especially when there is no evidence of any significant difference between the quality of the divisions.

In a normal season schedules are 75% the same , twice against each opponent, the last 25 % is within Conference.

75% is a lot greater than 0 %.

 

[Dekes For Days]

In a normal season schedules are 75% the same

But they're not, as I explained in that post you just quoted, but seemingly ignored.

 

[Golden_Jet]

But they're not, as I explained in that post you just quoted, but seemingly ignored.

Better go brush up on your Math.
75% same team scheduling is > 0%,

Edmonton does not equal Tampa Bay etc.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Better go brush up on your Math.

My math is just fine, thanks. You're just not understanding the discussion, and the countless ways in which opponent quality and schedule difficulty can vary, even in a "normal" year. Try reading again.

 

[Golden_Jet]

My math is just fine, thanks. You're just not understanding the discussion, and the countless ways in which opponent quality and schedule difficulty can vary, even in a "normal" year. Try reading again.

I read it fine thanks,
Different scheduling , days off ......etc, does not come close to making up the difference in playing Ottawa, Calgary, vs Vegas and Tampa Bay.

 

[Dekes For Days]

the difference in playing Ottawa, Calgary, vs Vegas and Tampa Bay.

Well obviously the top teams from one division are not the same as the bottom teams from another division, but I'm not sure what you think that has to do with this discussion...

 

[Golden_Jet]

Well obviously the top teams from one division are not the same as the bottom teams from another division, but I'm sure what you think has to do with this discussion...

Agreed.

 

[zeke]

I read it fine thanks,
Different scheduling , days off ......etc, does not come close to making up the difference in playing Ottawa, Calgary, vs Vegas and Tampa Bay.

Maybe a good measure of the strength of each division would be looking at how much teams have improved or not moving to their new division:


Central

CAR: .596 --> .723 (+.127)
TBL: .657 --> .688 (+.031)
FLA: .565 --> .684 (+.119)
DAL: .594 --> .553 (-.041)
NSH: .565 --> .551 (-.014)
CHI: .514 --> .510 (-.004)
DET: .275 --> .420 (+.145)
CBJ: .579 --> .400 (-.179)
TOTAL: +.184

West

VGK .606 --> .745 (+.139)
COL .657 --> .733 (+.076)
MIN .558 --> .691 (+.133)
STL .662 --> .511 (-.151)
ARZ .529 --> .490 (-.039)
SJS .450 --> .436 (-.014)
LAK .457 --> .444 (-.013)
ANA .450 --> .365 (-.085)
TOTAL: +.046

North:

TOR .579 --> .677 (+.098)
EDM .585 --> .622 (+.037)
WPG .563 --> .606 (+.043)
MTL .500 --> .533 (+.033)
VAN .565 --> .500 (-.050)
CGY .564 --> .479 (-.085)
OTT .437 --> .396 (-.041)
TOTAL: +.035

East

WSH: .654 --> .688 (+.034)
PIT: .623 --> .684 (+.061)
NYI: .588 --> .656 (+.068)
BOS: .714 --> .638 (-.076)
NYR: .564 --> .571 (+.007)
PHI: .645 --> .531 (-.114)
NJD: .493 --> .365 (-.128)
BUF: .493 --> .337 (-.156)
TOTAL: -.304


It's the teams in the Central that have seen by far the biggest boost in wins and losses with the division changes.

West and North are close, but West slightly bigger.

Unsurprisingly, its the teams in the East that have taken by far the biggest hit.

 

[axman15]

There’s something I’ve noticed of late with Keefe that I don’t love.

At the end of close games, he’ll keep Matthews/Marner out there for the final 2+ minutes. I understand that they’re (by far) our best guys, but I have to think that after 90 seconds on the ice, putting Tavares+Kefoot/Nylander/Soupy/Spezza out there at 90% is more effective than having a gassed Matthews/Marner trying to close the game.

I love Matthews/Marner closing games, but playing them for the final 2+ minutes just seems like a recipe for disaster.

 

[saffronleaf]

 

[Teeder Keon]

Not bad
Must have a better record than Dan Maloney

 

[zeke]

That's a 109pt pace.

Even with his starting goalie imploding on him.

 

[Le Cobra]

Leave it to "Chief" Sheldon Keefe to deliver the results most of us imagined we would have under Mike Babcock.

Playoffs will be the real test.

 

[zeke]

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Does Alex Kerfoot look like puppet to anyone else?

 

[zeke]

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

We are a few days away from the real test, everything to this point was expected, I expected them to win the division, I expected them to finish top 10 in the NHL, now I expect them to go to the conference final.

I do have goalie concerns Campbell has been great but he's got no play experience and has played above 30 games in a season once.

But even with those goalie concerns I expect them to go to the final 4.

If they don't go AT LEAST that far they failed

 

[Mess]

This thread has exceed its 1000 post desired upper limit.

/Closed