Post-Game Talk: SENS blow into the Windy City, Mon 8:30 pm

[God Says No]

I know +/- is hated on but he leads this team with +16, Stone is 2nd with +13 and Chabot +3 on generally a bad team 5 on 5. He's shown to be more than a bottom pairing d since we traded for him in many different stats.
Hopefully Bernard-Docker is top 4 capable in a few years.

Yeah, no. Still think Demelo is best suited on the bottom pairing. I have to be fair though that he's played a lot better than I ever expected this year. But to maximize his skill, he's gotta play on the bottom pair, with limited exposure. Unfortunately we got like 5 guys who you could say the exact same thing.

 

[solidprospect]

Demelo could potentially be a good #4 playing besides a (much)better dman, but if he's the main guy on his pairing, it's a no from me dawg.

It's really not all that different right now than when Karlsson played with Methot. A stay at home d with an offensive one and then someone else plays the power play over Methot...Demelo.

Wouldn't mind changing things around if we find a better #3-4 though.

 

[L'Aveuglette]

Ceci is taking a huge step next year haven’t you heard?

A huge step towards the trashcan?

 

[BonkTastic]

I know +/- is hated on

Yeah, for good reason. It's the worst, most unreliable stat in hockey.

Literally half of his current + rating (+8) was accumulated in the first 6 games of the season, when he went on what might end up being the best 6 game span of his career.

He's been a depth defenceman ever since, getting minutes simply because he's the only RD on the team not named Ceci, and SOMEONE has to play next to Chabot.

He's been trending downwards for months. He's a good bottom pairing D/ kinda barely passable #4 guy. Nothing more. Put him with anyone but an all-star caliber d-partner and he looks as ordinary as white paint.

In a perfect world, he's the RD on our 3rd pairing.

 

[Micklebot]

Yeah, for good reason. It's the worst, most unreliable stat in hockey.

Literally half of his current + rating (+8) was accumulated in the first 6 games of the season, when he went on what might end up being the best 6 game span of his career.

Triggered...

He's been a depth defenceman ever since, getting minutes simply because he's the only RD on the team not named Ceci, and SOMEONE has to play next to Chabot.

Somewhere in Chicago, Jaros sheds a single tear...

He's been trending downwards for months. He's a good bottom pairing D/ kinda barely passable #4 guy. Nothing more. Put him with anyone but an all-star caliber d-partner and he looks as ordinary as white paint.

In a perfect world, he's the RD on our 3rd pairing.

agreed, though I think he's potentially fine as a number 4 with a solid partner, though that might be my lowered standards...[/quote][/QUOTE]

 

[solidprospect]

Yeah, for good reason. It's the worst, most unreliable stat in hockey.

Literally half of his current + rating (+8) was accumulated in the first 6 games of the season, when he went on what might end up being the best 6 game span of his career.

He's been a depth defenceman ever since, getting minutes simply because he's the only RD on the team not named Ceci, and SOMEONE has to play next to Chabot.

He's been trending downwards for months. He's a good bottom pairing D/ kinda barely passable #4 guy. Nothing more. Put him with anyone but an all-star caliber d-partner and he looks as ordinary as white paint.

In a perfect world, he's the RD on our 3rd pairing.

The stats show otherwise, particularily gar/war, xG, corsi and other metrics being better than last year in San Jose and also included among other above average defenceman in the NHL this season.

 

[BonkTastic]

Somewhere in Chicago, Jaros sheds a single tear...

Man I keep forgetting that Boucher is actually starting to give Jaros meaningful minutes.

I should amend my statement to reflect the fact that Boucher was never going to use Jaros on the 1st pairing because there's no way he'd expose a rookie like that for a whole season, though the fact that Jaros had more minutes tonight than DeMelo is a positive going forward, IMO.

 

[BonkTastic]

The stats show otherwise... metrics being better than last year in San Jose

He didn't play with Chabot last year in San Jose. He was a 3rd pairing guy just barely playing over 14 mins a night, and was healthy-scratched multiple times. I'm not surprised in the least that his numbers are better this year.

and also included among other above average defenceman in the NHL this season.

A guy who gets to play with one of the best offensive defencemen in the league has better stats than guys who don't? That sounds right, yeah. Agreed.

 

[JimmySpaetzle]

I just love how Boucher in his post-game presser was like: “we know that this game play was very uncharactertistic of this group of guys”. Like is it Guy? Is it really? We’ve been bad defensively all season long, this isn’t new...

 

[solidprospect]

He didn't play with Chabot last year in San Jose. He was a 3rd pairing guy just barely playing over 14 mins a night, and was healthy-scratched multiple times. I'm not surprised in the least that his numbers are better this year.



A guy who gets to play with one of the best offensive defencemen in the league has better stats than guys who don't? That sounds right, yeah. Agreed.

But it's just Demelo that is a 'product of who is playing with.'

 

[Gil Gunderson]

Teased comeback #563

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

I personally think Demelo has been excellent for us, relatively speaking. He's played like a legitimate top 4.

 

[Six Assets]

Teased comeback #563

funny thing is that we actually come back in playoff games. I can recall a lot of comeback wins...

 

[BonkTastic]

But it's just Demelo that is a 'product of who is playing with.'

Yeah. That's what I'm trying to tell you.

It's a thoroughly average player who is boosted via his opportunity.

PA Parenteau and Mason Raymond had real nice stats for one year each when they were boosted up the Leafs roster due to lack of other options. Their stats looked way better than normal.

There's guys like this all the time, all over. For years. Good enough to get a boost when forced into a situation they'd never earn in their own otherwise.

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

I personally think Demelo has been excellent for us, relatively speaking. He's played like a legitimate top 4.

Oh heavens no. Dear god no.

He's surpassed the expectations of being a healthy scratch type of guy, but he's been nothing more than a guy who's a bottom pairing guy getting the opportunity to play with an elite player. He's replacement level. I'd sell high on him right now like with Tierney. Its never gonna be better for these guys.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Oh heavens no. Dear god no.

He's surpassed the expectations of being a healthy scratch type of guy, but he's been nothing more than a guy who's a bottom pairing guy getting the opportunity to play with an elite player. He's replacement level. I'd sell high on him right now like with Tierney. Its never gonna be better for these guys.

Im not saying he's a top 4, im saying he has played like one. I remember Kuba's incompetence on D even with EK dragging him around. Demelo has held his own paired with Chabot and hasn't been a hindrance to him or himself.

 

[DrEasy]

Chabot and White went through a bit of a bad stretch, possibly due to their injuries, but it seems like they're back! It seems like they've been good and bad at the same time this season.

 

[Beville]

Annoying we couldn’t drag it to OT

 

[saskriders]

All this talk of supporting players makes me feel like we can (or probably more accurately could have before Karlsson and Hoffman left) just retool instead of rebuild because one of the big things we lack is good supporting players. It seems like we have just been stuck with a carousel of "meh" players outside of the core. Of course we have many problems beyond that, but outside of lacking a number 2 and 3 defenceman I think the core is decent. But outside of that we just have far too many players that are playing a line or two higher than they should be.

 

[solidprospect]

Yeah. That's what I'm trying to tell you.

It's a thoroughly average player who is boosted via his opportunity.

PA Parenteau and Mason Raymond had real nice stats for one year each when they were boosted up the Leafs roster due to lack of other options. Their stats looked way better than normal.

There's guys like this all the time, all over. For years. Good enough to get a boost when forced into a situation they'd never earn in their own otherwise.

I call bs on that.All of these stats are out there for a reason and most of them are independent from other players performance. They don't depend on anyone else but themselves.

It's more like, this guy needed a chance to play more because he's much better than most people think.

 

[solidprospect]

If Chabot makes players look that good we should put him with Ceci and get our first round pick for him as soon as possible.

 

[JungleBeat]

I personally think Demelo has been excellent for us, relatively speaking. He's played like a legitimate top 4.

Lol, maybe in the first 10 games but DeMelo has definitely not played at a top four level.

 

[DrEasy]

All this talk of supporting players makes me feel like we can (or probably more accurately could have before Karlsson and Hoffman left) just retool instead of rebuild because one of the big things we lack is good supporting players. It seems like we have just been stuck with a carousel of "meh" players outside of the core. Of course we have many problems beyond that, but outside of lacking a number 2 and 3 defenceman I think the core is decent. But outside of that we just have far too many players that are playing a line or two higher than they should be.

It's an interesting exercise for sure. Before trading Karlsson and Hoffman, with players playing at their rightful position we'd have (hope I'm not forgetting anyone):

Dzingel - Duchene - Hoffman
Tkachuk - White - Stone
? - Pageau - Ryan
Paajarvi - Paul - ?
Smith

Chabot - Karlsson
? - ?
? - Jaros
Boro, Ceci

If you address the question marks adequately I think we have a lower-tier playoff team. If we also don't trade Phaneuf that's one question mark addressed right there. And if you stagger Karlsson and Chabot you can maybe afford a subpar defenseman paired with each. You can also try Wolanin or Lajoie on that 3rd pairing.

Addressing those question marks probably requires:
- spending to the cap,
- being able to attract free agents,
- being willing to demote/dump/trade Ceci, Boro, Smith, Harpur

Now imagine we do make it to the playoffs with that team. The next issue then is that it means we keep all the free agents-to-be for the playoff run, and so we re-sign some of them and/or we lose some of them to free agency for nothing. Keeping that team under the cap is probably difficult, when you figure all the question marks have been signed to free agent contracts themselves.

Another interesting scenario would be if we trade Stone, Duchene, Dzingel and we're still able to bring some of them back in the off-season. Add Karlsson to that scenario. Now we end up with part of the above team PLUS the assets obtained in the trades. Balcers, DeMelo, Tierney are legit NHLers who would adequately fill in those question marks, and we don't know what we'll get for Duchene/Dzingel/Stone.

A change of ownership really soon (soon enough to make this team attractive to the players we're losing to free agency this off season) could turn around this franchise very quickly. But I realize it's a pipe dream.

 

[Mark Effin Stone]

wakes up..

checks nhl.com/scores..

what

 

[BonkTastic]

I call bs on that.All of these stats are out there for a reason.

I think the fallacy here is trusting that the stats are infallible.

Advanced stats in hockey can be better than older traditional ones. Sometimes. A lot of the time, even. But the problem with advanced stats in hockey (not in that they are useless, but more in how you need to be careful with them and how they are not the are be-all and end-all of a player's story) is that they are HUGELY context dependent - coaching systems, linemates, and deployment are a massive unaccounted-for variable that way too many fans don't take into consideration.

I mean, Patty Wiercioch. Chris Wideman. Shane Prince. And on, and on... Even on the Sens alone, you can see that argument in place with these sorts of stats.

I'm a believer in advanced stats for sure, but also a believer that they are not the authoritative bible on player assessment - they are just a tool in a comprehensive, holistic evaluation of a player. They are occasionally fallible, and we have proof of that consistently since their appearance in hockey -again, not to the extent that we should not be using them, but certainly enough that they are at best used in context with other information to form a solid opinion of not only a player's skill, buy also his role and fit.

Regardless, there's nothing else we can really say in this argument that simply watching Demelo for the next 2-3 seasons won't uncover. You have your theory, I have mine. There's not much else to do but wait and find out who is right.