Post-Game Talk: SENS blow into the Windy City, Mon 8:30 pm

[solidprospect]

Comparing Methot to Demelo. Demelo's gar/60 and war are higher right now than any season Methot had with Karlsson. Methot was considered a top 4 defenceman regardless of his problems scoring goals.

 

[solidprospect]

Any reason why DeMelo's WAR has taken off this year?

Since advanced stats are not important now or anything i say pretty much gets questioned. Let's just say hes roughly on pace for as many points as last season and people think Chabot is the only reason that he looks better in gar/war. When he'd probably be scoring just as much on the 6th paring with the Sharks.

So the influence in his war increase must come from somewhere other than points.

 

[solidprospect]

I also just read that another poster said that i called Boro one of our best players and in no instance did I ever say that. This is what happens when people are wrong, they make stuff up and judge things they don't understand.

 

[Micklebot]

Any reason why DeMelo's WAR has taken off this year?

If I had to hazard a guess without knowing much about the specific WAR model, it would be that the metric adjusts for team quality in some manner or relies on relative stats. Ceci's pairing has been awful, basically making anyone who doesn't play with him do better in team adjusted and relative stats. On the flip side, his pairing in SJ was the bad one.

He also played pretty well to start the season, so credit where it's due, but if I were a betting man, I'd peg him as a prime candidate to regress.

 

[solidprospect]

If I had to hazard a guess without knowing much about the specific WAR model, it would be that the metric adjusts for team quality in some manner or relies on relative stats. Ceci's pairing has been awful, basically making anyone who doesn't play with him do better in team adjusted and relative stats. On the flip side, his pairing in SJ was the bad one.

He also played pretty well to start the season, so credit where it's due, but if I were a betting man, I'd peg him as a prime candidate to regress.

Regression can happen with any player at any given time. I had the same thought at the start of the year but that's not regression it's small size size sorting itself out. But yeah, October , November, December, January and February, Demelo has been on that list and happened to move downward after the last 2 games.

Another thing that can happen with players is they can exceed your expectations when you give them more playing time,particularily when they're young and still in there prime and not only is that happening with Demelo but it's also happening with Tierney having a career season in points pace of 56 but I guess that's just because of Chabot as well. In fact, Tierney already matched his point total from last season.

 

[Micklebot]

Regression can happen with any player at any given time. I had the same thought at the start of the year but that's not regression it's small size size sorting itself out. But yeah, October , November, December, January and February, Demelo has been on that list and happened to move downward after the last 2 games.

Another thing that can happen with players is they can exceed your expectations when you give them more playing time,particularily when they're young and still in there prime and not only is that happening with Demelo but it's also happening with Tierney having a career season in points pace of 56 but I guess that's just because of Chabot as well. In fact, Tierney already matched his point total from last season.

No sure why you're bringing up Chabot and Tierney, I made no mention of either.

Wrt DeMelo's stats improving because he's young and in his prime, it's possible, he's certainly playing better imo than my viewings from when he was in SJ would suggest, though I'd still argue his WAR/GAR stats are drastically overvaluing him likely for the reasons I already suggested.

 

[solidprospect]

No sure why you're bringing up Chabot and Tierney, I made no mention of either.

Wrt DeMelo's stats improving because he's young and in his prime, it's possible, he's certainly playing better imo than my viewings from when he was in SJ would suggest, though I'd still argue his WAR/GAR stats are drastically overvaluing him likely for the reasons I already suggested.

Then use the other stat tools on the site to try to support it/not support. xG stats are seperate from war and gar , and doesn't get influenced by teams they are on. You will find that Demelo ranks well in those too both xg for and xg against.

Chabot was apparently reason that Demelo is doing well in war and what not, it was an attempt at humor saying I guess Tierney's been influenced by Chabot as well.

 

[solidprospect]

“It’s just been a lot of fun. The more you play, the more you’re involved in the game. I’m in situations I wasn’t (able to) play in as much in San Jose and I think because of that my game has been able to grow quite a bit.”

“That’s how you learn,” said DeMelo, who has averaged 18:38 of ice time in 32 games this season. “You can’t simulate all those minutes in practice with extra reps, you have to get out and play against top lines. Sometimes you’re going to get beaten and stuff like that. That’s how you learn. I just feel the more I play, the better I play.

--

from December 25, 2018

 

[bert]

“It’s just been a lot of fun. The more you play, the more you’re involved in the game. I’m in situations I wasn’t (able to) play in as much in San Jose and I think because of that my game has been able to grow quite a bit.”

“That’s how you learn,” said DeMelo, who has averaged 18:38 of ice time in 32 games this season. “You can’t simulate all those minutes in practice with extra reps, you have to get out and play against top lines. Sometimes you’re going to get beaten and stuff like that. That’s how you learn. I just feel the more I play, the better I play.

--

from December 25, 2018

There is no doubt in my mind he is a pretty intelligent hockey player. At 25 years old he is still pretty young for a defenseman, his physical abilities will limit how good he will become. He is kinda the ying to Ceci's yang, he has hockey sense and obviously understands the game and how to grow but doesnt have the physical abilities to be anything more than a number 4 d man.

Meanwhile Ceci has all the physical tools but seriously seems to lack the ability to get better or learn from his mistakes. They are the same age and shoot the same direction while both coming from the same Jr league. Its too bad we couldnt put Demelos head on to Ceci's body that would be a heck of a defenseman.