Thank you for the insight, hard pass on Montour as that price is a bit to steep for Colorado imo. Maybe Scandella would be the better target mattering on what happens with other players on the Avs.
No problem. And I definitely understand about the hard pass as that is a hefty price to pay. It is just that the Sabres paid that price less then a year ago and Montour has done nothing to reduce his trade value. At minimum he has retained his trade value if not slightly increased it. A 1st round pick and top prospect is a very valuable trade package but that is what the Sabres had to pay to acquire a smooth 2 way 30-35 point top 4 dman who plays ~21 minutes a night who is only 25 years old, gets a bit under $3.4 mil AAV who is still under team control after this year as an RFA.
He will likely get a 6-8 year extension at around ~5 mil per IMO. An in his prime 25 year old dman who is adept at both ends and a consistent 30-35 point player who is also a RHD is very valuable. Top 4 RHD IMO are the most valuable position outside of a top 6 center. So accordingly the price is going to be pretty high. A 1st+top prospect would be at minimum the cost to acquire Montour less then a year after acquiring him.
The Aves would be better off going after Scandella. He only has a 4 mil AAV, would only cost around a 2nd, and is only turning 30 so he can still be re-signed on a 3-4 year deal and should still provide decent play. Outside of an awful year last season for him, Scandella has shown to be a solid #4 for most of his career. If the Aves don't want to trade a 1st and one of their top 3 prospects for Montour then a late 2nd for Scandella makes the most sense for them.
I happen to like Guhle. But he was out of favor in Buffalo, was never a high end prospect, and he is not yet a full time dman in Anaheim. It also remains very unclear if he's a future 3. He's more likely a 4/5 or even 6. Again, I like him. But your characterization of what Buffalo gave up for Montour is inflated, both because Guhle was not a top prospect and the first rounder that was traded was always going to be a lower pick (second half of the first round).
I respectfully have to disagree majorly. How is Guhle not yet a full time dman for the ducks?! He is 4th among Anaheim Dmen in ToI per game. The games he has missed this year are due to injury, not healthy scratches. He has 2 points in his 4 games, is a +2, and has played at least 17:43+ in every single game he has played. He has a 53.1 CF and has a ridiculously good +10.9 CF Rel %. He literally turned 22 a few months ago and is still improving. He is a very good skater and plays a smooth steady quiet game. He was paired with Cam Fowler and was the first choice over MDZ. When healthy it will be MDZ coming out of the lineup, not Brendan Guhle.
Quite simply, the Ducks and Sabres pulled off a win win trade as the Sabres got an immediate #3 dman while the Ducks got a future top 4 dman. Again, Guhle just turned 22 years old and this is now his first year as a full time NHLer. He is not being sent down nor is he going to be in the press box for most of this year. If he is healthy, he is going to be on the ice playing with Cam Fowler and getting 19-20 minutes a night. His entire tenure as Sabres property was nothing but good. He was getting very high praises from the moment he was drafted and hit the ice wearing a Sabre sweater. He was undoubtedly the Sabres best D prospect the entire time he was a Sabre up until the Sabres drafted Rasmus Dahlin. Not only that but he was the Sabres top prospect during 15-16 with Eichel and Reinhart graduated, was the Sabres 2nd best prospect during 16-17 only behind Alex Nylander and then in 17-18 he was a top 3 Sabre prospect behind Mittelstadt and Nylander. So wherever you got the idea that Brendan Guhle was not a top prospect is again patently false. Guhle was a top prospect for Buffalo the moment he was drafted and he has done nothing but improve.
Calling Guhle a possible #6 dman is patently false and proven wrong already. #6 dmen are not paired with Cam Fowler. #6 dmen do NOT average over 19 minutes a game. And Guhle was absolutely a top prospect. He nearly made the Buffalo Sabres immediately after being drafted being the last D cut.
http://www.buffalohockeybeat.com/sabres-prospect-brendan-guhle-comfortable-in-pro-hockey/
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Like Guhle did throughout NHL training camp seven months ago, when he became Buffalo’s biggest surprise, the youngster impressed during his six-game AHL stint, showcasing strong poise and skating aggressively."
"He earned a long look from the Sabres in his first camp, turning heads and nearly forcing the club to keep him. After suffering a concussion late in the preseason, he was still with the big club when the regular season began. He never played any games, however."
So saying that Guhle was never a top prospect, or fell out of favor or that he is likely a #5/6 is flat out wrong. Brendan Guhle is ALREADY a #4/5 dman as of today. When healthy he is going to get 2nd pair minutes. Again, Guhle was going to make the Sabres right after being drafted if it wasn't for a concussion he suffered. And he almost made the team AGAIN in his D+2 season before ultimately being sent back to the Dub.
Guhle as an 18 year old joined Rochester after his junior season ended and put up 1-3-4 in his 6 game stint as an 18 year old dman. Again in his D+2 season after juniors ended he once again was able to play 6 games as a teenager in the AHL. As a teenager in the AHL he was exactly at a .5 ppg with 6 in 12. Which proves and shows his untapped potential. Outside of his last junior season, Guhles offensive game was not his strong suit. He was under .5 ppg in juniors every year outside of his last junior season. Yet before his 20th bday in the A he was at a .5 ppg. And in his 20 and 21 year old AHL seasons he was OVER a .5 ppg with 13-40-53 in exactly 100 games. That is a very good sign when a dmans offensive production actually IMPROVES in the AHL compared to their CHL production.
So TL;DR
Brendan Guhle was and is a top prospect. He is not a #6 dman, that is just ridiculous. The Sabres wanted a young in his prime top 4 RHD and they paid a high cost to get it in Brandon Montour. Guhle highly valued in Buffalo and the only reason he was even available was that he was a Murray pick and not a Botterill one. Botts still highly valued Guhle, but he specifically targeted Montour and knew he had to give up value to get value and pulled the trigger. Guhle is a sure fire budding 2nd pairing dman who is like Montour, going to be a likely 30-35 point 2 way smooth skating 2nd pairing dman.
The Ducks have a good one. As for me inflating the Montour trade package, that again is false. While the 1st was definitely going to be a non lotto pick, with the condition involved it had a very good chance to be a pick in the early 20s. 7 weeks prior the Blues were in last place. They went on a cup run and it was unfortunate for both Buffalo and Anaheim that both 1st round picks in play were owned by the two WC finalists teams. It could have ended differently and those 1sts could have both been in the early 20s instead of the early 30s.
And I also prefer Colin Miller to Brandon Montour. Both are very good and the Sabres are absolutely LOADED at RHD. The Sabres arguably have the deepest RHD corps/pipeline in the league with Risto, Miller, Montour, Jokiharju and then B level RHD prospects like Borgen,Fitzgerald and Laaksonen. Unless Botterill can pull off some magic and/or give up a quality trade package/1st round pick the damn Seattle franchise is going to poach one of the Sabres RHD. Hopefully we move some of them far before we let those freakin jerks steal our good RHD. That is why I would like to move Montour for a 1st+top prospect so Ron Francis doesn't get to STEAL one of them. I hate this expansion BS. Contract a team don't add more. 30 was perfect.
