Friedman: Sabres shopping D? (Not Risto)

[Meichel Kane]

This just in, sometimes teams make trades even if they are doing well.

Please forgive us. It's been a while since we've done well.

 

[dkollidas]

When Montour comes back, I think he gets a couple games with Jokiharju. Which means Scandella goes to the bench. If McCabe/Ristolainen doesn’t pick it up, and Montour shows up well, I think we could see Montour replace McCabe on the top pair with Ristolainen and McCabe go down with Jokiharju.
So then pairs would be
Montour-Ristolainen
Dahlin-Miller
McCabe-Jokiharju

Scandella could then easily be dealt. Still have 6 very solid defensemen plus Pilut, Borgen and Bryson all in Rochester, and Bogosian waiting to get healthy.

 

[Jay haller]

Nylander and Petan for Dahlin

 

[Ace]

Nylander and Petan for Dahlin

Hilarious

 

[couture23]

Nylander and Petan for Dahlin

How much have you had to drink tonight?

 

[heilongjetsfan]

Dahlin, Miller, Jokiharju are definitely not going anywhere.
McCabe, Montour are unlikely to get dealt... but it could happen if it's a top-6 F coming the other way

Risto, Scandella, Bogosian have to be the bigger names being floated by Botterill. Everyone knows BUF has been trying to trade Risto, I'm glad Botterill was patient this offseason and didn't take a weak deal he didn't like just to move him.

Maybe Botterill was exploring the idea with a team desperate for multiple defensemen to help out immediately (WPG) by adding Scandella, Bogosian, or Nelson to an offer along with Risto. Would make sense to me.

WPG has the space to take both Risto ($5.4m x 3) and Scandella ($4.0m x 1) if they want.

Would WPG even entertain the idea of something around Risto + Scandella for Ehlers + Kulikov?

The cap hits work out pretty evenly both ways. Sabres would just bury Kulikov somewhere and Ehlers fits the huge top-6 winger hole in the lineup perfectly.

WPG injects some much needed life into the D-core with 2 new starters with size in place of the incompetent Kulikov, and will actually have a pretty solid D-core all around if/when Big Buff returns. Ehlers is obviously a big cost, and is the most valuable player in the deal, there's no denying that. But I think the benefit overall outweighs the cost for the team's success. WPG has 3 elite wingers ahead of Ehlers in the organizational depth chart as it is. Scoring will not fall off the face of the earth if Ehlers is removed from the lineup, and the D would dramatically improve

Thanks so much for trying to fix my hilariously broken team. Scandella, I like. Risto, quite a bit less. I don't see that he's an upgrade on Kulikov whose salary is 1m and 2 years less.

At best, Kuli for Risto is a wash. Ehlers for Scandella is pretty darn bad.

 

[dkollidas]

Thanks so much for trying to fix my hilariously broken team. Scandella, I like. Risto, quite a bit less. I don't see that he's an upgrade on Kulikov whose salary is 1m and 2 years less.

At best, Kuli for Risto is a wash. Ehlers for Scandella is pretty darn bad.

I don’t know.
I’ve had both on my team. I’m not trying to be a homer. But Kulikov and Ristolainen aren’t “a wash”.
Now would I Ehlers for Ristolainen? Probably not straight up.

But I just disagree with the sentiment that Ristolainen is on the same level as Kulikov. He’s much better than that.

 

[Hunter368]

I don’t know.
I’ve had both on my team. I’m not trying to be a homer. But Kulikov and Ristolainen aren’t “a wash”.
Now would I Ehlers for Ristolainen? Probably not straight up.

But I just disagree with the sentiment that Ristolainen is on the same level as Kulikov. He’s much better than that.

You're right they aren't a wash.......but Ristolainen is the last thing the Jets need regardless what happens with Buff. Let me explain:

- Let's be honest here, Ristolainen is poor 5vs5 both offensively & defensively. He gains the majority of his points on the PP, I'll comment on this below. A handful of games doesn't change what he is. Rislolainen is paid too much money to play outside any team's top 4, so playing him on the bottom pairing isn't an option or logical.

- Jets bottom pairing is fine, no need for help there with Buff returning or not.

- Jets could use help top 4 LHD if Buff returns, that would make their D very strong. If Buff returns, Ristolainen has no business and fills no needs on the Jets.

- If Buff retires, the Jets don't need a PP specialist or any weak defensive D especially 5vs5 (Jets have Pionk who is a offensive PP guy who isn't strong defensively already). Jets couldn't afford (not talking about cap hit) having two weak defensive guys on the right side like Pionk & Ristolainen. If Buff retires Jets need a more defensive D or strong two way guy in their top 4 D, this is far from what Ristolainen is.

Ristolainen just fills no needs on the Jets whether Buff retires or not.......he's just a poor fit on a team like the Jets when they already have Pionk (offensive D) and need "defensive help 5vs5" from their D.

Not saying Ristolainen is a horrible player, he just doesn't fill any needs for the Jets. Sabres would be better of trading him to a team who already is defensively sound 5vs5 on D and just needs help on the PP, that way Ristolainen could be sheltered defensively and used to his strengths. On the Jets he would be playing to his weaknesses, not his strengths.

 

[Djp]

You're right they aren't a wash.......but Ristolainen is the last thing the Jets need regardless what happens with Buff. Let me explain:

- Let's be honest here, Ristolainen is poor 5vs5 both offensively & defensively. He gains the majority of his points on the PP, I'll comment on this below. A handful of games doesn't change what he is. Rislolainen is paid too much money to play outside any team's top 4, so playing him on the bottom pairing isn't an option or logical.

- Jets bottom pairing is fine, no need for help there with Buff returning or not.

- Jets could use help top 4 LHD if Buff returns, that would make their D very strong. If Buff returns, Ristolainen has no business and fills no needs on the Jets.

- If Buff retires, the Jets don't need a PP specialist or any weak defensive D especially 5vs5 (Jets have Pionk who is a offensive PP guy who isn't strong defensively already). Jets couldn't afford (not talking about cap hit) having two weak defensive guys on the right side like Pionk & Ristolainen. If Buff retires Jets need a more defensive D or strong two way guy in their top 4 D, this is far from what Ristolainen is.

Ristolainen just fills no needs on the Jets whether Buff retires or not.......he's just a poor fit on a team like the Jets when they already have Pionk (offensive D) and need "defensive help 5vs5" from their D.

Not saying Ristolainen is a horrible player, he just doesn't fill any needs for the Jets. Sabres would be better of trading him to a team who already is defensively sound 5vs5 on D and just needs help on the PP, that way Ristolainen could be sheltered defensively and used to his strengths. On the Jets he would be playing to his weaknesses, not his strengths.

He’s poor offensively and defensively but he’s not a horrible player?????

he is on his 5th head coach in his 6th nhl season.

If you look at most high point D...the get a lot of PP pts

He will probably have lower point totals this year given his less PP time playing on the 2nd unit.

 

[Chainshot]

Nylander and Petan for Dahlin

Obviously.

 

[Hitemwith4]

Friedman is talking out of his ass again, the Sabres are doing good. Why would they disrupt that chemistry?

This!!

There seems to be no reason for buffalo to make a move right now

 

[krt88nc]

This!!

There seems to be no reason for buffalo to make a move right now

Right now but when Montour is back (seems like a few weeks away) and Bogo (early December) they’ll be over the cap and have 9 NHL defensemen so something will have to give.

that’s sort of the point of this thread.

 

[Hitemwith4]

Right now but when Montour is back (seems like a few weeks away) and Bogo (early December) they’ll be over the cap and have 9 NHL defensemen so something will have to give.

that’s sort of the point of this thread.

Ahh i didn't know not a buffalo fan

 

[stokes84]

I wouldn’t be surprised if Montour is on the block. When they traded for him, Botterill was asked a question about Montour being a long term answer given his RFA status, and he couched the answer with a “we’ll see if he’s a fit.” At the time, I thought it was a really weird answer for a guy he just traded for. But it was definitely more of a ‘we’ll evaluate him’ than a ‘he’s part of the future.’

 

[Testarific]

Another thing to keep in mind is the expansion draft...

I could see Buffalo aiming for a younger surefire prospect that won't have to be protected, since it's looking like we're going to be losing a quality player in the draft

 

[Weltschmerz]

Another thing to keep in mind is the expansion draft...

I could see Buffalo aiming for a younger surefire prospect that won't have to be protected, since it's looking like we're going to be losing a quality player in the draft

They will lose a quality player anyway, trading a blueliner for a prospect won't change that.

 

[Djp]

Another thing to keep in mind is the expansion draft...

I could see Buffalo aiming for a younger surefire prospect that won't have to be protected, since it's looking like we're going to be losing a quality player in the draft

This is thry if they traded Ristolainen or Montour for 1st and a prospect. Other teams don’t want yo give that up.

This is why if theytrade one of thrm fora too 6 winger thry would want one who is better than what they have to choose from. Right nor Skinner, Eichel, Reinhart, Mitts , olofsson get protected. The other 2 spots could go to Thompson, Asplund, and others. The player theyget needs to be above those players and be considered a lock to get protected.

On D I’m not so concerned because of depth.

I assume Joki is exempt but unsure. The others protected are likely Dahlin, Pilut, and Risto/Montour/Miller. One of them exposed, one of them traded. On RD it could be Miller/Borgen are exposed..one picked the other fills out as bottom RD.

 

[Testarific]

This is thry if they traded Ristolainen or Montour for 1st and a prospect. Other teams don’t want yo give that up.

This is why if theytrade one of thrm fora too 6 winger thry would want one who is better than what they have to choose from. Right nor Skinner, Eichel, Reinhart, Mitts , olofsson get protected. The other 2 spots could go to Thompson, Asplund, and others. The player theyget needs to be above those players and be considered a lock to get protected.

On D I’m not so concerned because of depth.

I assume Joki is exempt but unsure. The others protected are likely Dahlin, Pilut, and Risto/Montour/Miller. One of them exposed, one of them traded. On RD it could be Miller/Borgen are exposed..one picked the other fills out as bottom RD.

Okposo has a NMC, so that causes more problems too

edit: scratch that, it's a NTC now

 

[duckpuck]

Another thing to keep in mind is the expansion draft...

I could see Buffalo aiming for a younger surefire prospect that won't have to be protected, since it's looking like we're going to be losing a quality player in the draft

Very shrewd of Buffalo to be seeking this as opposed to every other team in the NHL.

I don't think you're getting an elite younger surefire prospect (more likely a decent prospect) or first round pick for either Risto or Montour. Not at this point - maybe if a team is going for it or desperate closer to the trade deadline. Risto's uneven play and Montour's pending RFA status (and historically high contract demands) make that tough (not to mention every team having expansion draft concerns).

 

[is the answer jesus]

Very shrewd of Buffalo to be seeking this as opposed to every other team in the NHL.

I don't think you're getting an elite younger surefire prospect (more likely a decent prospect) or first round pick for either Risto or Montour. Not at this point - maybe if a team is going for it or desperate closer to the trade deadline. Risto's uneven play and Montour's pending RFA status (and historically high contract demands) make that tough (not to mention every team having expansion draft concerns).

If you think Ristolainen or Montour couldn't return a 1st round pick you overvalue 1st round picks. Montour literally just went for a 1st and a decent prospect. His previous demands in contract negotiations really aren't all that relevant. He can ask for whatever he wants, but he hasn't had the breakthrough year or years that typically cause tough negotiations come RFA.

 

[Satanphonehome]

I think the Jets owe the Sabres big time for the last trade these two teams made.
You raped the Sabres for Kane.

Yes, Stafford, Myers, Armia, Lemieux and Roslovic are really ripping it up for the Jets right now...

I mean, the guys they got in return for those guys...

I mean Montour and Bogosian are completely worthless...

I mean - damn, people have a warped perception of that trade.

I’m going to translate this report the way I read it.

“The Sabres know they’re close enough on a deal they like for Ristolainen that they want to push it to the finish line by the time Montour returns from injury in two weeks. So I have been told to say they might now move a different defenseman...thus presenting they have other ideas and are not at all trapped by a blueline that soon has 4 RHD that have to play.”

Miller and Montour and Joker aren’t being traded.

This has never been a stumper.

Best post in the thread. The plan most likely will be what it has always been: trading Risto when they get the offer they want.

Sabres have more DMen than they need; that doesn’t mean they have to trade one, only that they can when the right deal presents itself.

 

[Panthaz89]

You're right they aren't a wash.......but Ristolainen is the last thing the Jets need regardless what happens with Buff. Let me explain:

- Let's be honest here, Ristolainen is poor 5vs5 both offensively & defensively. He gains the majority of his points on the PP, I'll comment on this below. A handful of games doesn't change what he is. Rislolainen is paid too much money to play outside any team's top 4, so playing him on the bottom pairing isn't an option or logical.

- Jets bottom pairing is fine, no need for help there with Buff returning or not.

- Jets could use help top 4 LHD if Buff returns, that would make their D very strong. If Buff returns, Ristolainen has no business and fills no needs on the Jets.

- If Buff retires, the Jets don't need a PP specialist or any weak defensive D especially 5vs5 (Jets have Pionk who is a offensive PP guy who isn't strong defensively already). Jets couldn't afford (not talking about cap hit) having two weak defensive guys on the right side like Pionk & Ristolainen. If Buff retires Jets need a more defensive D or strong two way guy in their top 4 D, this is far from what Ristolainen is.

Ristolainen just fills no needs on the Jets whether Buff retires or not.......he's just a poor fit on a team like the Jets when they already have Pionk (offensive D) and need "defensive help 5vs5" from their D.

Not saying Ristolainen is a horrible player, he just doesn't fill any needs for the Jets. Sabres would be better of trading him to a team who already is defensively sound 5vs5 on D and just needs help on the PP, that way Ristolainen could be sheltered defensively and used to his strengths. On the Jets he would be playing to his weaknesses, not his strengths.

Risto would easily be the 2nd best D-man regardless of the role on the Jets........though I doubt the Sabres actually trade him at this point unless the return is absolutely worth it.

 

[Hunter368]

Risto would easily be the 2nd best D-man regardless of the role on the Jets........though I doubt the Sabres actually trade him at this point unless the return is absolutely worth it.

Again regardless where you see him slotting in on the Jets, he fills no needs. He excels on the PP, not 5vs5, which is not where we need help. Jets needs are his biggest weaknesses so it’s just a poor fit.

 

[duckpuck]

If you think Ristolainen or Montour couldn't return a 1st round pick you overvalue 1st round picks. Montour literally just went for a 1st and a decent prospect. His previous demands in contract negotiations really aren't all that relevant. He can ask for whatever he wants, but he hasn't had the breakthrough year or years that typically cause tough negotiations come RFA.

It is not how I value first round picks. It is how GMs do.

How many first round picks have been traded in the past 12-18 months? Answer: Not many. And this off season a ton of d-men were traded - Trouba was the only one who garnered a first. Look at what Buffalo gave up for Miller a 2021 second (not even 2020) and 2022 fifth. And it seems most in Buffalo agree Miller is a better player than either Risto or Montour (perhaps because of Miller's good contract)

Toronto traded their first to dump Marleau - they literally had no choice and it will be a very low first round pick.

Jets traded one for Kevin Hayes - typical trade deadline overpay AND Hayes is a better player than Risto or Montour.

Columbus traded a first for Duchene - again another premiere player at the deadline to a team that was going for it (i.e., overpay).

Muzzin - who had a great contract, was proven top 4, and signed for another year at a very reasonable amount. And another deadline overpay from a contending team.

JT Miller - everyone was shocked a first was trade, but Benning is awful so to be expected. Maybe Buffalo can swing a trade with Benning (too bad Chiarelli is gone)

Trouba deal - Trouba is much better than Risto and Montour and had an extension in hand.

Buffalo traded 1 of its 3 first round picks for Montour. Many Anaheim fans criticized the trade, but it was in hindsight it was a very good return (including Guhle). Buffalo had 3 picks, so it didn't hurt as bad and the pick was always going to be 20 or lower.

Again, in the following off season, lots of d-men moved and only Trouba commanded a first. That is/was the market before most teams were capped out. Now the number of teams willing to take salary without sending $$ back is much smaller (since cap is driving this, presumably they can't take equal money back). Trouba and Muzzin are head and shoulders better than both Muzzin and Montour.

And with respect to Montour, his contract demands are directly relevant. He's already making $3.3M and is looking for a raise. Montour is that much closer to RFA and his value now is less than when Buffalo acquired him last year. Injured player with less term = less return.

If Buffalo can wait until the trade deadline or a major injury, they might get a team willing to give up a first. But not if they are forced to make a move due to cap, I don't see it happening.

 

[is the answer jesus]

It is not how I value first round picks. It is how GMs do.

How many first round picks have been traded in the past 12-18 months? Answer: Not many. And this off season a ton of d-men were traded - Trouba was the only one who garnered a first. Look at what Buffalo gave up for Miller a 2021 second (not even 2020) and 2022 fifth. And it seems most in Buffalo agree Miller is a better player than either Risto or Montour (perhaps because of Miller's good contract)

Toronto traded their first to dump Marleau - they literally had no choice and it will be a very low first round pick.

Jets traded one for Kevin Hayes - typical trade deadline overpay AND Hayes is a better player than Risto or Montour.

Columbus traded a first for Duchene - again another premiere player at the deadline to a team that was going for it (i.e., overpay).

Muzzin - who had a great contract, was proven top 4, and signed for another year at a very reasonable amount. And another deadline overpay from a contending team.

JT Miller - everyone was shocked a first was trade, but Benning is awful so to be expected. Maybe Buffalo can swing a trade with Benning (too bad Chiarelli is gone)

Trouba deal - Trouba is much better than Risto and Montour and had an extension in hand.

Buffalo traded 1 of its 3 first round picks for Montour. Many Anaheim fans criticized the trade, but it was in hindsight it was a very good return (including Guhle). Buffalo had 3 picks, so it didn't hurt as bad and the pick was always going to be 20 or lower.

Again, in the following off season, lots of d-men moved and only Trouba commanded a first. That is/was the market before most teams were capped out. Now the number of teams willing to take salary without sending $$ back is much smaller (since cap is driving this, presumably they can't take equal money back). Trouba and Muzzin are head and shoulders better than both Muzzin and Montour.

And with respect to Montour, his contract demands are directly relevant. He's already making $3.3M and is looking for a raise. Montour is that much closer to RFA and his value now is less than when Buffalo acquired him last year. Injured player with less term = less return.

If Buffalo can wait until the trade deadline or a major injury, they might get a team willing to give up a first. But not if they are forced to make a move due to cap, I don't see it happening.

One of the players you just mentioned couldn't return a 1st round pick was just traded for a 1st round pick +. So take out the prospect if his value has taken a hit based on your speculation that he'll be tough to sign (which I really see no indication of, if anything I'd tend to put that more on Murray and the ducks who have a history of strong arming RFA's in negotiations). There was a fair amount of movement in the offseason where good players (like Miller and others listed) were sold at a discount to clear cap space in the offseason, Buffalo has no urgency to free up cap space at the moment and young RHD are traditionally some of the more valuable commodities in the league. I find it hard to believe teams will trade 1st round picks for rentals but not for good young players with several years of team control. I'm sure GM's are offering 1st round picks for good young players with term, those players aren't being moved in great frequency because most teams and GM's would rather keep a good young player in their prime than move them for a mid to late 1st coin flip.