Friedman: Sabres shopping D? (Not Risto)

[Springfield Isotopes]

Scandella for Myles Wood..
No 5 Defender for a Middle 6 winger.

 

[Hasekperreault23]

Scandella for Myles Wood..
No 5 Defender for a Middle 6 winger.

Done

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

Why would the Sabres make any big moves right now, they are playing well.

They wouldn't. The move they are likely going to try and make is move Scandella and his 4 mil cap hit off the roster for a pick or prospect to clear salary for an eventual top 6/9 forward upgrade. Bogo is going to be the #7/8 dman when everyone is healthy sitting in the press box or better yet waived and playing in Rochester. Hell, hopefully he could be taken off the roster even at 50% for free.

Bogo is just an utter disappointment.

The Jets don't really need anymore bad defenseman, we have plenty. So, it's not worth giving up a first line winger for players that may marginally improve our bottom 4 defensemen.

Heh. "Marginally" improve your bottom 4...that is pretty rich. Risto would be your 2nd best dman ainec. You can keep believing that Risto is horrid when that is the complete opposite. Risto is the dman on the team with the leagues best Goal differential who is playing nearly 24 minutes a night, the most minutes at ES and 2nd most on the PK. He also would be your best offensive dman.

The Jets blue line is atrocious. You have 2 Sabre cast offs on your blue line who wouldn't even crack the Sabres top 8 on the blueline. Ristolainen wouldn't be a marginal upgrade on guys like Kulikov and Beaulieu he would be an astronomical upgrade.

And no, Botterill would not trade Ristolainen in a deal centered around Perreault or Roslovic.

 

[Snowman]

Heh. "Marginally" improve your bottom 4...that is pretty rich. Risto would be your 2nd best dman ainec. You can keep believing that Risto is horrid when that is the complete opposite. Risto is the dman on the team with the leagues best Goal differential who is playing nearly 24 minutes a night, the most minutes at ES and 2nd most on the PK. He also would be your best offensive dman.

The Jets blue line is atrocious. You have 2 Sabre cast offs on your blue line who wouldn't even crack the Sabres top 8 on the blueline. Ristolainen wouldn't be a marginal upgrade on guys like Kulikov and Beaulieu he would be an astronomical upgrade.

And no, Botterill would not trade Ristolainen in a deal centered around Perreault or Roslovic.

Yeah we'll just ignore the other 6 years of Risto's career where he's been terrible and rate him on 8 games this year when he and the Sabres have been playing way over their heads.

And no, the Jets will not be moving Perreault or Roslovic for a marginal upgrade to our bottom pairing in Risto, no matter how much you wish Risto could return that much.

 

[jcbeze]

Risto isn't worth perrault or reslovic?

Hahhahahhahah


Winter is coming my friend, enjoy!

 

[Snowman]

Risto isn't worth perrault or reslovic?

Hahhahahhahah


Winter is coming my friend, enjoy!

I didn't say he's not worth those guys. I said the Jets won't move those guys for Risto.

 

[pigpen65]

If it's Bogosian they gotta bury him in Rochester, no way you could trade that contract without getting ripped off.

He's a UFA after the season.

 

[Selanne00008]

That's probably a fair or more than fair deal for Anaheim short term, but long term that would be bad for the Ducks. Comtois doesn't have to be protected for the ED while Risto does. The Ducks already have Lindholm, Fowler, and Manson that need to be protected. Ideally, Anaheim trades for a #4 RHD that has 1-2 years left (and significantly lower price tag to acquire), give the young guys that two years to prove who stays and who goes, then make a deal when Zegras, Steel, Comtois, Terry, etc. are all hitting their strides in the NHL. If Buffalo has a guy that can be a solid #4 that they want to get rid of without overpaying for, that might be the right deal.

Do the Ducks need Salary coming back our way? Why not just do Risto for a high draft pick. We can then figure out if we wanna just use it or flip it some someone else and figure that piece out afterwards.

 

[Ace]

I’m going to translate this report the way I read it.

“The Sabres know they’re close enough on a deal they like for Ristolainen that they want to push it to the finish line by the time Montour returns from injury in two weeks. So I have been told to say they might now move a different defenseman...thus presenting they have other ideas and are not at all trapped by a blueline that soon has 4 RHD that have to play.”

Miller and Montour and Joker aren’t being traded.

This has never been a stumper.

 

[duckpuck]

I respectfully have to disagree majorly. How is Guhle not yet a full time dman for the ducks?! He is 4th among Anaheim Dmen in ToI per game. The games he has missed this year are due to injury, not healthy scratches. He has 2 points in his 4 games, is a +2, and has played at least 17:43+ in every single game he has played. He has a 53.1 CF and has a ridiculously good +10.9 CF Rel %. He literally turned 22 a few months ago and is still improving. He is a very good skater and plays a smooth steady quiet game. He was paired with Cam Fowler and was the first choice over MDZ. When healthy it will be MDZ coming out of the lineup, not Brendan Guhle.

Quite simply, the Ducks and Sabres pulled off a win win trade as the Sabres got an immediate #3 dman while the Ducks got a future top 4 dman. Again, Guhle just turned 22 years old and this is now his first year as a full time NHLer. He is not being sent down nor is he going to be in the press box for most of this year. If he is healthy, he is going to be on the ice playing with Cam Fowler and getting 19-20 minutes a night. His entire tenure as Sabres property was nothing but good. He was getting very high praises from the moment he was drafted and hit the ice wearing a Sabre sweater. He was undoubtedly the Sabres best D prospect the entire time he was a Sabre up until the Sabres drafted Rasmus Dahlin. Not only that but he was the Sabres top prospect during 15-16 with Eichel and Reinhart graduated, was the Sabres 2nd best prospect during 16-17 only behind Alex Nylander and then in 17-18 he was a top 3 Sabre prospect behind Mittelstadt and Nylander. So wherever you got the idea that Brendan Guhle was not a top prospect is again patently false. Guhle was a top prospect for Buffalo the moment he was drafted and he has done nothing but improve.

Calling Guhle a possible #6 dman is patently false and proven wrong already. #6 dmen are not paired with Cam Fowler. #6 dmen do NOT average over 19 minutes a game. And Guhle was absolutely a top prospect. He nearly made the Buffalo Sabres immediately after being drafted being the last D cut.

http://www.buffalohockeybeat.com/sabres-prospect-brendan-guhle-comfortable-in-pro-hockey/

"Like Guhle did throughout NHL training camp seven months ago, when he became Buffalo’s biggest surprise, the youngster impressed during his six-game AHL stint, showcasing strong poise and skating aggressively."

"He earned a long look from the Sabres in his first camp, turning heads and nearly forcing the club to keep him. After suffering a concussion late in the preseason, he was still with the big club when the regular season began. He never played any games, however."

So saying that Guhle was never a top prospect, or fell out of favor or that he is likely a #5/6 is flat out wrong. Brendan Guhle is ALREADY a #4/5 dman as of today. When healthy he is going to get 2nd pair minutes. Again, Guhle was going to make the Sabres right after being drafted if it wasn't for a concussion he suffered. And he almost made the team AGAIN in his D+2 season before ultimately being sent back to the Dub.

Guhle as an 18 year old joined Rochester after his junior season ended and put up 1-3-4 in his 6 game stint as an 18 year old dman. Again in his D+2 season after juniors ended he once again was able to play 6 games as a teenager in the AHL. As a teenager in the AHL he was exactly at a .5 ppg with 6 in 12. Which proves and shows his untapped potential. Outside of his last junior season, Guhles offensive game was not his strong suit. He was under .5 ppg in juniors every year outside of his last junior season. Yet before his 20th bday in the A he was at a .5 ppg. And in his 20 and 21 year old AHL seasons he was OVER a .5 ppg with 13-40-53 in exactly 100 games. That is a very good sign when a dmans offensive production actually IMPROVES in the AHL compared to their CHL production.

So TL;DR

Brendan Guhle was and is a top prospect. He is not a #6 dman, that is just ridiculous. The Sabres wanted a young in his prime top 4 RHD and they paid a high cost to get it in Brandon Montour. Guhle highly valued in Buffalo and the only reason he was even available was that he was a Murray pick and not a Botterill one. Botts still highly valued Guhle, but he specifically targeted Montour and knew he had to give up value to get value and pulled the trigger. Guhle is a sure fire budding 2nd pairing dman who is like Montour, going to be a likely 30-35 point 2 way smooth skating 2nd pairing dman.

The Ducks have a good one. As for me inflating the Montour trade package, that again is false. While the 1st was definitely going to be a non lotto pick, with the condition involved it had a very good chance to be a pick in the early 20s. 7 weeks prior the Blues were in last place. They went on a cup run and it was unfortunate for both Buffalo and Anaheim that both 1st round picks in play were owned by the two WC finalists teams. It could have ended differently and those 1sts could have both been in the early 20s instead of the early 30s.

And I also prefer Colin Miller to Brandon Montour. Both are very good and the Sabres are absolutely LOADED at RHD. The Sabres arguably have the deepest RHD corps/pipeline in the league with Risto, Miller, Montour, Jokiharju and then B level RHD prospects like Borgen,Fitzgerald and Laaksonen. Unless Botterill can pull off some magic and/or give up a quality trade package/1st round pick the damn Seattle franchise is going to poach one of the Sabres RHD. Hopefully we move some of them far before we let those freakin jerks steal our good RHD. That is why I would like to move Montour for a 1st+top prospect so Ron Francis doesn't get to STEAL one of them. I hate this expansion BS. Contract a team don't add more. 30 was perfect.

Citing an article from 2016 touting Guhle as a great prospect actually makes my point. By the time he was traded, he had failed to stick in the NHL after several years, had been passed by several guys in Buffalo's pipeline (not just Dahlen), and was in fact out of favor. By no means a bust, but the gloss was off for sure.

Guhle has played 10 games with the ducks after playing 23 with Buffalo -whatever analytics you're citing are worthless with so few games. As are Guhle's AHL stats. We know very little about his NHL progress and ultimate ceiling - his skating and other tools are enticing, but he is too young to proclaim as a legit top 4 d-man (though he might be one). He is playing with Fowler in the ducks top 4 because the ducks defense unit is severely lacking in depth. Severely. On any other team, he would not have that role.

I stated that Montour was traded for a decent (not top) prospect and mid to low round first round pick. You're response is to argue that . . . the pick could have been as high as 20. I'm not sure how that's any different than what I said. And then you add that Guhle was a "top prospect" who somehow is not in Buffalo's top 5-6 actual prospects.

The bottom line is that the ducks got a pretty valuable pick and a good - but not great or elite - prospect. A decent return but not the massive haul you want to trade Montour now (a first plus a "top prospect"). That is more than Buffalo gave up and Montour is that much closer to being an RFA (and he has a history of somewhat unreasonable contract demands).

Final questions for you to consider. If Guhle is already a top 4 d-man, why did Buffalo trade him PLUS a first round pick for Montour who: (i) is at best 3/4/5; and (ii) another RHD when Buffalo had such a strong pipeline of RHD? Why didn't Buffalo just keep their stud top prospect top-4 LHD? They obviously liked Montour more than Guhle - enough to add a valuable pick - yet Montour has never been a top pairing guy. Think about it before you keep telling me how great a prospect Guhle is/was.

 

[Ace]

Citing an article from 2016 touting Guhle as a great prospect actually makes my point. By the time he was traded, he had failed to stick in the NHL after several years, had been passed by several guys in Buffalo's pipeline (not just Dahlen), and was in fact out of favor. By no means a bust, but the gloss was off for sure.

Guhle has played 10 games with the ducks after playing 23 with Buffalo -whatever analytics you're citing are worthless with so few games. As are Guhle's AHL stats. We know very little about his NHL progress and ultimate ceiling - his skating and other tools are enticing, but he is too young to proclaim as a legit top 4 d-man (though he might be one). He is playing with Fowler in the ducks top 4 because the ducks defense unit is severely lacking in depth. Severely. On any other team, he would not have that role.

I stated that Montour was traded for a decent (not top) prospect and mid to low round first round pick. You're response is to argue that . . . the pick could have been as high as 20. I'm not sure how that's any different than what I said. And then you add that Guhle was a "top prospect" who somehow is not in Buffalo's top 5-6 actual prospects.

The bottom line is that the ducks got a pretty valuable pick and a good - but not great or elite - prospect. A decent return but not the massive haul you want to trade Montour now (a first plus a "top prospect"). That is more than Buffalo gave up and Montour is that much closer to being an RFA (and he has a history of somewhat unreasonable contract demands).

Final questions for you to consider. If Guhle is already a top 4 d-man, why did Buffalo trade him PLUS a first round pick for Montour who: (i) is at best 3/4/5; and (ii) another RHD when Buffalo had such a strong pipeline of RHD? Why didn't Buffalo just keep their stud top prospect top-4 LHD? They obviously liked Montour more than Guhle - enough to add a valuable pick - yet Montour has never been a top pairing guy. Think about it before you keep telling me how great a prospect Guhle is/was.

If you go back to when Buffalo made the trade their RHD depth was...Ristolainen. Who they had on the block. Joker and Miller were acquired after. On the left they had Dahlin, Pilut, McCabe and Scandella...and Guhle.

 

[Panthaz89]

I doubt they trade anyone playing right now until the others are ready to play. I doubt Montour gets traded if one RD goes down the Sabres are comfortable with him going in there quite easily. Scandella is likely to get moved once someone is healthy if anything.

 

[Panthaz89]

The Jets don't really need anymore bad defenseman, we have plenty. So, it's not worth giving up a first line winger for players that may marginally improve our bottom 4 defensemen.

they look pretty fine here...

 

[Boxscore]

I didn't say he's not worth those guys. I said the Jets won't move those guys for Risto.

I beg to differ.

The Jets would absolutely move those guys for Ristolainen, in a heart beat. However, chances are the Sabres would demand a Nik Ehlers in return, not one of them. If Ristolainen could be had for Perreault, the Jets would have made that deal the second it was on the table.

The Jets lost Buff, Trouba and Myers on the right side. Even if Buff returns, Trouba and Myers are two big-bodied RH shot D that are a nightmare to replace. Ristolainen would be a HUGE upgrade for the Jets.

As for Ristolainen the player, there is a lot of grey area. His +/- has been brutal over the last few years in Buffalo, but in all fairness, he was expected to punch well above his weight during his tenure with the Sabres. Now, with an emerging Dahlin, and solid vets like Miller, Ristolainen is not nearly as exposed as he was before.

It would be like the Jets having Tyler Myers and nothing else, then expecting him to be incredible facing the likes of Crosby, Malkin, Matthews, Barkov, etc. every night like Ristolainen had to.

I don't think Ristolainen is the perfect defenseman, but he is a very good, big, physical, RH D who is capable of scoring 45-50+ points on the PP in the right situation. And, he would certainly be the second best defenseman on the Jets tomorrow, behind Morrissey. If Buff returns, he'd be the Jets #3, which would be impressive.

 

[lwvs84]

Do the Ducks need Salary coming back our way? Why not just do Risto for a high draft pick. We can then figure out if we wanna just use it or flip it some someone else and figure that piece out afterwards.

I doubt Buffalo trades Risto for just a draft pick. With Risto, Ducks are more than likely a playoff team. I would trade an 18-22 overall pick for him, they wouldn't trade him for that.

 

[Jason MacIsaac]

NJ could move Wood for a LHD, Scandella is not worth Miles however.

 

[Hasekperreault23]

Yeah we'll just ignore the other 6 years of Risto's career where he's been terrible and rate him on 8 games this year when he and the Sabres have been playing way over their heads.

And no, the Jets will not be moving Perreault or Roslovic for a marginal upgrade to our bottom pairing in Risto, no matter how much you wish Risto could return that much.

Bottom pairing? You're confusing your defence from last year to this year I hope

 

[OVO16]

Would Bogosian be available?

 

[SB716]

Would Bogosian be available?

Whatever you’re offering. Deal

 

[Team Cozens]

Would Bogosian be available?

7th rounder - 2025. Conditional.

 

[Der Jaeger]

Would Bogosian be available?

What are you offering?

 

[jetsforever]

I'd take one if they're cheap.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

Yeah we'll just ignore the other 6 years of Risto's career where he's been terrible and rate him on 8 games this year when he and the Sabres have been playing way over their heads.

And no, the Jets will not be moving Perreault or Roslovic for a marginal upgrade to our bottom pairing in Risto, no matter how much you wish Risto could return that much.

Perrault is a borderline capdump and Roslovic has proven nothing other than a 4th line forward. I'm sure the Sabres are salivating at the prospect of acquiring that garbage.

 

[JThorne]

All these hilarious people saying Dahlin! YOU'RE SO FUNNY!

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

Scandella will be traded by the TDL, for something like a 2nd or 3rd, and Pilut will come in to replace those minutes.

Montour getting healthy might cause a trade to happen sooner barring other injuries, like Scandella, but Pilut can be kept in Rochester and Jokiharju can be sent down to make room (even though he's playing great and should stay up).

Bogosian will need some time to rehab and (possibly) get some playing time to show other GMs he's still a capable player worth a 3rd or whatever at the TDL, but trading him as soon as he's healthy for even less might be worth the cap space.

Aside from all of the above, a decision may have to be made between trading Ristolainen or Montour, so as not to crowd the D-corps while an upgrade to the FWs could really help more than the blueline depth.

If one of those two are traded, the return would have to be someone like Kase, Rakell, Ehlers, Donskoi...some top-six wing that can produce around 50-60 pts. Prospects like Comtois or Terry aren't bad options, I just assume that Bob Murray would prefer his ELC guys and give up a higher cap player if he's taking on a 5 mil cap like Montour or Ristolainen.