Speculation: Rumour, Trade, and Free Agent Speculation 2018-19 - Part II

[Mortimer Snerd]

Ehlers is the guy that can't score, started on the 4th line. The guy that gifted the Oilers an OT victory. Kind of like Alex Galchenyuk, stock is falling.

Werenski is Morrissey good. Ehlers is not a leader. He's like the Drouin of our team. Need the right pieces to get him going. I know Chevy would sell higher on him than I proposed, if it ever came to be. Chevy and his scouting staff know hockey. But the 2 players I suggested would both help in ways that Ehlers isn't (shutdown PKing d, and a RH power winger to replace Armia). The latter may be less necessary if Suess becomes our 4C, moving Roslovic to the wing.

I'm not going to debate with you about Ehlers. Drouin is a year older, has played about the same number of games and scored 25 fewer goals. Twenty-five. I'll just leave it right there.

The 2 players you suggested are not what you say they are. Murray can't be a shutdown D - because he is no damn good defensively. I don't believe Anderson replaces Armia's skillset either, though they might occupy a similar spot on a roster. He also, is not good defensively. Two defensively weak players who can't score. Come to think about it, I don't want to debate that with you either. Not to be rude, but we are light years apart here so there really isn't any point.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

He's had 54 goals the past 2 years itll pick up. the whole team minus the CLT line cant score at EV and a majority of the production is on the PP. Werenski shouldn't be available from a CBJ POV barring major overpayment. Kid's a stud and will anchor their top pair with Jones for years

Agree, and Werenski is only going to get better - not available - but he is the player it would take from CBJ to get Ehlers.

 

[voyageur]

Agree - but I would trade Niko for the right price. The proposal here wasn't in the ballpark.

Difficult as it appears to be trading Trouba, I'd bet we could get a pretty good LW for him, if that was the target. A lot easier than having to get a top pairing RHD for him. So I'd do Ehlers for Pesce. That would immediately allow moving Trouba. Myers too for that matter, with top 4 RHD being solidified.

I'm anything but anxious to move Ehlers. We immediately go from being a fast team to being a team with a little speed, here and there. But it may be necessary to better balance the team.

If the 2nd part of this could be the Trouba to Fla for Borgstrom + Pysyk we would have our LW Ehlers replacement/future 2C plus a right side D of Pesce, Buff, Pysyk. Not to mention our cap crunch being pushed back a couple of years.

Fantasy though. Right?
How would a Finn line of KV - Borgstrom - Laine be in a year or two?

Ehlers for Pesce? Jesus. Then trade Trouba? When did Chevy become Marc Bergevin?

I ageee about the speed part, that's important.

We could still as the the season progresses put out a pretty formidable lineup.

Ehlers/Ves-Scheifele-Laine
Connor-Roslovic/Little-Wheeler
Perreault-Little/Ros-Lemmy/Ehlers
Copp-Lowry-Tanev

Trouba is worth a lot. He is trade bait at next year's draft. Increasing his value.

I think if we end up with other assets moving ahead of Ehlers as a better option/fit (Veselainen) which moves Ehlers into a 3rd/4th line role (and 2nd PP) he becomes worth trading.

 

[GaryPoppins]

Talk about recency bias and small sample size! Ehlers had 29 goals last season. He's 22 YO and has scored 69 goals.

You can trade anybody - but get value. And don't trade any player - ever - because you are disappointed in their first 8 games of the season.

heh.... maybe there's a reason he doesn't wanna score anymore goals...

He's in his 4th year. He is contributing to neither special teams, but is somehow a sacred cow.

I'd like to know how we get the LD we need. Nobody here is going to say that Niku is going to be a top 4 d-man in a shutdown role this year. His progression is slower than that.

Chiarot, Morrow, Kulikov? as your 2nd and 3rd pairing d? Trade Myers you lose an important PK part. And force Poolman in. Who hasn't shown he can play top 4, when injury besets.

If Kulikov were tradeable I'd suggest him.

I'll still say that Ehlers is a valuable asset, with a big cap hit (if he is worth 6 million, is Connor worth 7?)
Laine 9?). Getting winning pieces for him, would be something I consider.

Like I said we're behind Nashville and Colorado in d, and even with Minnesota. Centre we're middle of the pack. Lowry tips it in our favour a bit. If our wingers are the difference, I'd like to see it.
You put Lemieux in and the team got better. I want to see Ehlers make players better, and I don't think he can anymore.

Hahaha, oh man.

"I want to see Ehlers make players better, and I don't think he can anymore"

The sky isn't falling, Chicken Little. He's just hesitating in his execution. You can see. He's second guessing himself for a split second and that split second makes all the difference when you're playing in the best league in the world.

He will be fine.

Ehlers is absolutely not the player you trade.

 

[Duke749]

Yes. Ehlers is washed up. At 22.

He's a 60 point player already. A scoring slump shouldn't have the Jets jettisoning him into the sun.

Yeh that statement was kinda where he lost me. Most young players don’t just regress for no reason whatsoever and stay that way. This debate wouldn’t have even come up if it wasn’t for his recent struggles anyways. Just a big fat “what have you done for me lately?”.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Ehlers for Pesce? Jesus. Then trade Trouba? When did Chevy become Marc Bergevin?

I ageee about the speed part, that's important.

We could still as the the season progresses put out a pretty formidable lineup.

Ehlers/Ves-Scheifele-Laine
Connor-Roslovic/Little-Wheeler
Perreault-Little/Ros-Lemmy/Ehlers
Copp-Lowry-Tanev

Trouba is worth a lot. He is trade bait at next year's draft. Increasing his value.

I think if we end up with other assets moving ahead of Ehlers as a better option/fit (Veselainen) which moves Ehlers into a 3rd/4th line role (and 2nd PP) he becomes worth trading.

Lets just agree to disagree. We really are on different planets here.

 

[Fire Chevy]

If we can sign trouba to a long term deal for 7-7.5mish we are not trading him

 

[voyageur]

I'm not going to debate with you about Ehlers. Drouin is a year older, has played about the same number of games and scored 25 fewer goals. Twenty-five. I'll just leave it right there.

The 2 players you suggested are not what you say they are. Murray can't be a shutdown D - because he is no damn good defensively. I don't believe Anderson replaces Armia's skillset either, though they might occupy a similar spot on a roster. He also, is not good defensively. Two defensively weak players who can't score. Come to think about it, I don't want to debate that with you either. Not to be rude, but we are light years apart here so there really isn't any point.

Yes. Both Drouin and Anderson have more goals this year, than Ehlers. Like Alex Tuch outscored him last year in the playoffs. And Murray is a 2nd pairing d-man, LHD, while Pesce, RHD, our strength, was relegated to the 3rd pairing. I'm guessing your argument is based on Corsica or something vague. Let's bury the hatchet.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Yes. Both Drouin and Anderson have more goals this year, than Ehlers. Like Alex Tuch outscored him last year in the playoffs. And Murray is a 2nd pairing d-man, LHD, while Pesce, RHD, our strength, was relegated to the 3rd pairing. I'm guessing your argument is based on Corsica or something vague. Let's bury the hatchet.

Done.

 

[Duke749]

Yes. Both Drouin and Anderson have more goals this year, than Ehlers. Like Alex Tuch outscored him last year in the playoffs. And Murray is a 2nd pairing d-man, LHD, while Pesce, RHD, our strength, was relegated to the 3rd pairing. I'm guessing your argument is based on Corsica or something vague. Let's bury the hatchet.

And your arguement is based off of recency bias. So what?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

If we can sign trouba to a long term deal for 7-7.5mish we are not trading him

Of course there is that 'if' - but I am assuming that ship sailed - or maybe it sank. If he signs long term I'll quite happily change my forecast but I think he has made it clear he wants out. If we don't trade him to someplace he likes he will go UFA.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

Agree - but I would trade Niko for the right price. The proposal here wasn't in the ballpark.

That's not what I was arguing. Every player should be fair game, if it improves the balance of the team. Fire sales on a talented but slumping offensive player usually isn't a good idea.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

How old were Kane and Bogosian when they got traded?

Ehlers. The Danish problem child?

Your proposals were not good value for the Jets, IMO.

 

[Whileee]

Today's NHL game is all about speed, and Ehlers has intimidating, game-changing speed. Add to that a great skillset and you have a very valuable player. You don't trade those top-end players for "meh" middle-end D and wingers. Ehlers would need to return a top player to make that trade, not a couple of lesser pieces.

 

[Whileee]

Well that's overrating your player by a quite bit and underrating others. But that's ok, it's just a fan forum.

Here's a comparison of Ryan Murray and Ben Chiarot. Let's just say it's not that flattering for Murray...

 

[Fire Chevy]

Of course there is that 'if' - but I am assuming that ship sailed - or maybe it sank. If he signs long term I'll quite happily change my forecast but I think he has made it clear he wants out. If we don't trade him to someplace he likes he will go UFA.

I agree I’m still in denial honestly but I hope it can work but if Trouba is available I feel they’re will be a bidding war for his service 1D don’t come available almost never

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

That's not what I was arguing. Every player should be fair game, if it improves the balance of the team. Fire sales on a talented but slumping offensive player usually isn't a good idea.

That's why I agreed.

I have pondered trading him quite apart from his recent slump. But only on the condition that we have to trade someone to fix our D and mange the cap. It would have to be someone good to accomplish those 2 things. Not going to be Fefe, Laine or Morrissey. Prospects don't do it. Pretty much comes down to KC or Niki.

 

[voyageur]

Here's a comparison of Ryan Murray and Ben Chiarot. Let's just say it's not that flattering for Murray...

View attachment 148853

I may not know how to interpret these properly, but looks like Murray is relied upon on his coach for defensive zone starts. And while he gives up a lot of shots (as a consequence) he contributes more to positive results. For the record I never rate a player by a video game chart. I'm just wondering how a guy who played more than Trouba for the Young Stars, and played well, could be compared to Chiarot? Are the charts right or the coaches?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I agree I’m still in denial honestly but I hope it can work but if Trouba is available I feel they’re will be a bidding war for his service 1D don’t come available almost never

I think Trouba is probably seen more as a #2D. The bidding war will be dampened by the widespread presumption that he has a short list of teams he will sign long term with or else he will go UFA. Think of Fla for an example. Assume they are interested in him but also assume that they believe they are at the top of his list. Will they pay a high price for him next off-season or wait 1 more year and get him for free?

I think it might make a difference to them if they could get him now rather than later. They might see it as a chance to make the PO's this year or miss again. But if that is not the case, I could see them making only a weak offer next off-season. Other teams that think they would be high on his list might similarly back off. Teams not expecting to be high on his list would be willing to pay no more than rental prices for him. Rental prices are lower in the off-season than they are at the TD.

All that said, I think we will still get something good for him but it may be less than we think he should be worth.

 

[Whileee]

I may not know how to interpret these properly, but looks like Murray is relied upon on his coach for defensive zone starts. And while he gives up a lot of shots (as a consequence) he contributes more to positive results. For the record I never rate a player by a video game chart. I'm just wondering how a guy who played more than Trouba for the Young Stars, and played well, could be compared to Chiarot? Are the charts right or the coaches?

His zone starts aren't that much higher than average. His results are dismal.

Even if you want to go by basic stats, he played more than Chiarot and scored fewer points over the past two seasons.

I think he's overrated, including by whoever was selecting the Young Stars tournament team. Anyone that thinks he's better than Trouba is completely out to lunch.

How many games have you watched him play? Whenever I've see him he's completely unremarkable, and isn't that sharp with puck movement, which is a key attribute in today's game.

 

[Whileee]

I think Trouba is probably seen more as a #2D. The bidding war will be dampened by the widespread presumption that he has a short list of teams he will sign long term with or else he will go UFA. Think of Fla for an example. Assume they are interested in him but also assume that they believe they are at the top of his list. Will they pay a high price for him next off-season or wait 1 more year and get him for free?

I think it might make a difference to them if they could get him now rather than later. They might see it as a chance to make the PO's this year or miss again. But if that is not the case, I could see them making only a weak offer next off-season. Other teams that think they would be high on his list might similarly back off. Teams not expecting to be high on his list would be willing to pay no more than rental prices for him. Rental prices are lower in the off-season than they are at the TD.

All that said, I think we will still get something good for him but it may be less than we think he should be worth.

Jets would be crazy to trade Trouba this season, when they have a legit shot at going all the way.

It only takes 2 or 3 interested teams to prop up trade value, and I could see at least that many teams having an interest, including: Detroit, Florida, NYR, NYI, Sabres.

 

[Bigfish]

Trade Ehlers??? We should have traded 32 year old Wheeler for a d man when we had the chance. His value was never higher. We could have moved Laine to the 1st line and run with a Perreault Little Ehlers 2nd line and then used Wheelers salary to ensure Morrissey, Laine and Connor all signed a long term deals.

 

[voyageur]

His zone starts aren't that much higher than average. His results are dismal.

Even if you want to go by basic stats, he played more than Chiarot and scored fewer points over the past two seasons.

I think he's overrated, including by whoever was selecting the Young Stars tournament team. Anyone that thinks he's better than Trouba is completely out to lunch.

How many games have you watched him play? Whenever I've see him he's completely unremarkable, and isn't that sharp with puck movement, which is a key attribute in today's game.

I don't think he's better than Trouba but if you are comparing him to Chiarot I don't take you seriously as a hockey analyst. You are missing the whole boat. The need us for a shutdown d-man to pair with Buff. So that there is a true top 4 d. Assuming Niku-Poolman are 5-6 next year, with Morrow as 7, the guy needs to kill penalties well, defend. Chiarot has had his stats upgraded by the quality of his teammates. I.e Buff/Myers. Remember Chiarot took awhile to pass Stuart on the depth chart.

Murray got Nutivaara/Savard. Do you think that's comparable?

He's a defensive defenseman. You need those, because Buff, Morrissey, Trouba (or his replacement) Morrow/Niku move the puck well. The 1st 3 have the green light to jump in any time. I'm talking about defending better, and I think Murray-Buff would be a tough pairing. Anyways, it's tiresome. Ehlers is great, potentially. No problems with his play. Just trade Little. He only scores GWGs and kills penalties. And add more puck movers. Problem solved.

 

[DRW204]

I'd take Pesce over Murray. That contract is a beauty, is young, and his scoring efficiency and analytics are comparable to Josh (prior to this year if i recall ) . Not sure why Carolina moves him tho

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Jets would be crazy to trade Trouba this season, when they have a legit shot at going all the way.

It only takes 2 or 3 interested teams to prop up trade value, and I could see at least that many teams having an interest, including: Detroit, Florida, NYR, NYI, Sabres.

I understand your point about trading him this year. As with any trade it all depends on the return.

We can only speculate about how potential trade partners will view him next off-season. There may be some teams that will pay to rent him for 1 year. That would be limited to contenders who have the cap space. I see 6-7 teams who might believe they can sign him long term. I don't think Buffalo would be on that list. How many of them would be willing to pay a high price? Waiting for him to become available via UFA is a gamble, but some teams will be able to predict having an advantage. Will they get into a bidding war or take their chances on waiting? The fewer the bidders the lower the bids.