Speculation: Rumour, Trade, and Free Agent Speculation 2018-19 - Part II

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YWGinYYZ

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Continued from: https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/rumour-trade-and-free-agent-speculation-2018-19.2506359/

Some posts to start us off:

Without Stats we don't win the NSH series.

A Winnipeg Franchise has never won a second round series - EVER until this year.

he was worth it.

How is getting knocked out in the 3rd round any better than getting knocked out in the 2nd round? Beyond the playoff revenue for the team. I don't feel any better about it, in fact, I probably feel worse that we were bested by a less deserving team. And Rinne is the reason we won, not Stastny.

Oh no, the chocolate bar is never for me. I'm just saying, you don't get between a mama bear and her cubs, and you especially don't get between my wife and her chocolate. :eek:

What he said - plus the possibility that other things change too if Stas isn't there. Very speculative, I admit. But maybe Mau swaps Ehlers and Connor and both 1st and 2nd lines do better that way. Maybe all Little needs is Connor's forecheck and North/South style of game to get him going. Scheif and Ehlers are very creative together. Maybe those combinations get by Nash and VGK too. It is possible.

I think we'd have to add assets just to get rid of those contracts, just like the Mason trade; Kulivov for sure.

Agree. I think we might see really big seasons from Roslovic and Petan.

Because you know Maurice will put both in the best possible positions to succeed? I hope you're right, but my expectations are lower. Roslovic could do OK, but I think both Petan and Dano will be on very short leashes, and it won't take much for Maurice to put either one back in the doghouse.
 

SUX2BU

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I'm first

Agreed with the first continued post. You have to give up something to achieve playoff success .....
 

Adam da bomb

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Agreed with the first continued post. You have to give up something to achieve playoff success .....
But, not necessarily a 1st round draft pick. None of the other teams that finished near the top gave up that. Washington didn't, TB didn't and neither did LVGK.
 

Mortimer Snerd

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Agreed with the first continued post. You have to give up something to achieve playoff success .....

Washington gave up a 3rd for Kempny, at a position where they were seriously weak.

Vegas gave up a boatload for Tatar, at a position where they were not very weak. He contributed little. He was also under contract for 2.5 more years. And they picked up Ryan Carpenter off waivers.

Those were the only teams to go farther in the playoffs than we did.

TBL gave up quite a bit to get McDonagh and Miller to strengthen positions that were already pretty strong. I can't see how they got any farther in the playoffs than they would have otherwise. They finished 3rd overall in the regular season, 1 pt behind us.

Both TBL and Jets were beaten by teams who added less to rosters that were already not as good. Seems to contradict your point.
 
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boanst

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But, not necessarily a 1st round draft pick. None of the other teams that finished near the top gave up that. Washington didn't, TB didn't and neither did LVGK.
Wpg, Bos, TB, Nsh, and VGK all traded away 2018 1st rounders in packages at or near the trade deadline .
 

SUX2BU

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But, not necessarily a 1st round draft pick. None of the other teams that finished near the top gave up that. Washington didn't, TB didn't and neither did LVGK.

People constantly get mad at Chevy for standing pat at the trade line

What he did was took a chance and though it didn’t get to the finals, it got this team further in the playoffs for the first time

And you’re mad at that ?
 

SUX2BU

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Washington gave up a 3rd for Kempny, at a position where they were seriously weak.

Vegas gave up a boatload for Tatar, at a position where they were not very weak. He contributed little. He was also under contract for 2.5 more years. And they picked up Ryan Carpenter off waivers.

Those were the only teams to go farther in the playoffs than we did.

TBL gave up quite a bit to get McDonagh and Miller to strengthen positi0ons that were already pretty strong. I can't see how they got any farther in the playoffs than they would have otherwise. They finished 3rd overall in the regular season, 1 pt behind us.

Both TBL and Jets were beaten by teams who added less to rosters that were already not as good. Seems to contradict your point.

No, a goalie who played in God mode and a lack of secondary scoring beat us ......
 

KingBogo

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Washington gave up a 3rd for Kempny, at a position where they were seriously weak.

Vegas gave up a boatload for Tatar, at a position where they were not very weak. He contributed little. He was also under contract for 2.5 more years. And they picked up Ryan Carpenter off waivers.

Those were the only teams to go farther in the playoffs than we did.

TBL gave up quite a bit to get McDonagh and Miller to strengthen positi0ons that were already pretty strong. I can't see how they got any farther in the playoffs than they would have otherwise. They finished 3rd overall in the regular season, 1 pt behind us.

Both TBL and Jets were beaten by teams who added less to rosters that were already not as good. Seems to contradict your point.
I don't regret for a minute trading a very late 1st and a B prospect for Stastny. This organization needed to have some playoff success IMO. Never having even won a single playoff game, never mind a series can wear on a team. If we would have laid another opening round egg there would be huge question marks just about everywhere. Loading up for a big playoff run gave us the best chance at success. We would have waltzed by Minny no matter what, but Stastny played a huge part in the series win over the Preds, and maybe was enough of a difference maker? But taking out Nashville in a game 7 was a great learning experience for a very young team. It is too bad we ran into a hot goalie just as we were hitting a wall. That Nashville series just took too much of a toll, but we can learn from that as well. I'm not sure if I want Chevy to be a TD buyer ever season, but last year was a very important year to start getting some playoff traction. Now we go into this season with the kids all a year older, more experienced and knowing they can play with the best.
 

Adam da bomb

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People constantly get mad at Chevy for standing pat at the trade line

What he did was took a chance and though it didn’t get to the finals, it got this team further in the playoffs for the first time

And you’re mad at that ?
I'd rather have given up a 2nd or 3rd. I'm not mad just don't want to do it again when there is so much excitement at draft time. Anything would have got the Jets further than they had been before.
 
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Mortimer Snerd

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No, a goalie who played in God mode and a lack of secondary scoring beat us ......

And that goalie played for a team that added less at the TD and that had a weaker roster, on paper. Of course there was a lack of secondary scoring. The opposing goalie was in god mode. :laugh:
 
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Mortimer Snerd

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I don't regret for a minute trading a very late 1st and a B prospect for Stastny. This organization needed to have some playoff success IMO. Never having even won a single playoff game, never mind a series can wear on a team. If we would have laid another opening round egg there would be huge question marks just about everywhere. Loading up for a big playoff run gave us the best chance at success. We would have waltzed by Minny no matter what, but Stastny played a huge part in the series win over the Preds, and maybe was enough of a difference maker? But taking out Nashville in a game 7 was a great learning experience for a very young team. It is too bad we ran into a hot goalie just as we were hitting a wall. That Nashville series just took too much of a toll, but we can learn from that as well. I'm not sure if I want Chevy to be a TD buyer ever season, but last year was a very important year to start getting some playoff traction. Now we go into this season with the kids all a year older, more experienced and knowing they can play with the best.

I really don't think our team that was on pace for 110 pts pre Stastny was going to lay that big an egg. Do you? Do you really think we were that bad without Stastny? If so we might as well open the tank thread again.

It may have been a very late first but there were still very good players available. And if Nash had eliminated us it wouldn't have been quite so late a first. :)

Even if we had gone on to win the cup, I would have some lingering doubt about the value equation. We gave up 10-15 years of 2 players for the boost Stastny gave us for about 3 months. Of course there is the possibility that we never get 3 months out of either of those players but I like our chances of exceeding that by a large margin. We got Vesalainen at 24 OA. Almost as late as this years pick would have been.
 

Neuf

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Even if we had gone on to win the cup, I would have some lingering doubt about the value equation. We gave up 10-15 years of 2 players for the boost Stastny gave us for about 3 months.

31 teams, all things equal means a cup every 31 years. Giving up 10-15 years of known player would still have been worth a cup, nevermind a pick or prospect.

But it depends how you value the Cup, so it's an opinion thing.
 
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SUX2BU

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The third note re: chocolate

It applies to all of our better halves along with sappy movies like The Notebook

Figure I get off the first continued comment ....
 

KingsHockey24

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I was going through some rosters through-out the NHL coming up with idea's where teams will land in the standings and noticed something..

Patrick Laine is 6 foot 5?!? I thought the kid was like 6 foot, 185lbs.
 

CaptainChef

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I really don't think our team that was on pace for 110 pts pre Stastny was going to lay that big an egg. Do you? Do you really think we were that bad without Stastny? If so we might as well open the tank thread again.

It may have been a very late first but there were still very good players available. And if Nash had eliminated us it wouldn't have been quite so late a first. :)

Even if we had gone on to win the cup, I would have some lingering doubt about the value equation. We gave up 10-15 years of 2 players for the boost Stastny gave us for about 3 months. Of course there is the possibility that we never get 3 months out of either of those players but I like our chances of exceeding that by a large margin. We got Vesalainen at 24 OA. Almost as late as this years pick would have been.
Mort I can't believe you are really arguing against trading away a couple of drafts/prospects to give us a strong chance at the cup. Sure more draft picks are always nice, but comes a time when you need to go for it, and I'm really glad they did. Who needs a couple more maybes, when you're alreadt loaded with prospects and players needing a spot. Sure some cheaper talent will really come in handy in 3-4 years, but if we can't amass that in spite of giving away a late first, then hang it on our drafting team.

Stastny ended up making a huge difference in the playoffs. Who's to say we even get by Minny without him, Nash for sure he was the difference.

Those series wins look huge on our resume right now & are worth a heck of a lot more than another prospect that was fine but would likely never make the Jets roster, and a late first rounder. Given the benefit of hindsight, sure it could have turned out better. But we could have won the cup, maybe even should have won the cup if it wasn't for a golaie that came up super hot at the right time.

But a lot more would have been clamoring on Chevy's back for doing nothing much at the deadline, than those that can argue from the benefit of hindsight and say maybe we should have hung onto our prospects. I'll go for a chance at the cup 10 times out of 10 -- because after all, isnt that the whole purpose of this show
 
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surixon

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I'm not the biggest fan of giving up assets at the deadline especially firsts but this young team really did need to get a lot of playoff experience. Stastny helped us go to the WC finals which was very valuable for a team that had incredibly little combined playoff experience. Our team now understands the grind, they know how to win tight series (Nashville) and they also hit some adversity.

Experience was the major ingredient that this core lacked and Stastny helped us get it. Now that we have it I am less inclined to give up grade A assets for TD help now, if we need to make a few Morrow esc depth moves I am ok with that.
 
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SUX2BU

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I was going through some rosters through-out the NHL coming up with idea's where teams will land in the standings and noticed something..

Patrick Laine is 6 foot 5?!? I thought the kid was like 6 foot, 185lbs.

Yes, a big kid

4 guys are 6’5” and one guy is 6’8”
 

Mortimer Snerd

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31 teams, all things equal means a cup every 31 years. Giving up 10-15 years of known player would still have been worth a cup, nevermind a pick or prospect.

But it depends how you value the Cup, so it's an opinion thing.

Well, you've got a point. But no one player can ensure a cup. The absence of no one player can prohibit a cup.
 

dratbunnies

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I really don't think our team that was on pace for 110 pts pre Stastny was going to lay that big an egg. Do you? Do you really think we were that bad without Stastny? If so we might as well open the tank thread again.

It may have been a very late first but there were still very good players available. And if Nash had eliminated us it wouldn't have been quite so late a first. :)

Even if we had gone on to win the cup, I would have some lingering doubt about the value equation. We gave up 10-15 years of 2 players for the boost Stastny gave us for about 3 months. Of course there is the possibility that we never get 3 months out of either of those players but I like our chances of exceeding that by a large margin. We got Vesalainen at 24 OA. Almost as late as this years pick would have been.
I really like the logical approach to the assets here (except for the fact that it disagrees with my opinion ;p). I do want to mention though, that not only might Foley and the 1st never make the show, but even when they do, we probably shouldn’t be comparing 15 years of assets compared to 3 months of Stastny, but instead 15 years of assets compared to 3 months of Stastny and 15 years of replacement level talent, right? And in this case, if Foley becomes a decent third line player, the difference between this and a replacement level talent is not very noticeable, and feels much easier to stomach.

I’m honestly not sure if that is a valid distinction to make, so feel free to have at it if you don’t think it makes sense :p
 

Mortimer Snerd

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Mort I can't believe you are really arguing against trading away a couple of drafts/prospects to give us a strong chance at the cup. Sure more draft picks are always nice, but comes a time when you need to go for it, and I'm really glad they did. Who needs a couple more maybes, when you're alreadt loaded with prospects and players needing a spot. Sure some cheaper talent will really come in handy in 3-4 years, but if we can't amass that in spite of giving away a late first, then hang it on our drafting team.

Stastny ended up making a huge difference in the playoffs. Who's to say we even get by Minny without him, Nash for sure he was the difference.

Those series wins look huge on our resume right now & are worth a heck of a lot more than another prospect that was fine but would likely never make the Jets roster, and a late first rounder. Given the benefit of hindsight, sure it could have turned out better. But we could have won the cup, maybe even should have won the cup if it wasn't for a golaie that came up super hot at the right time.

But a lot more would have been clamoring on Chevy's back for doing nothing much at the deadline, than those that can argue from the benefit of hindsight and say maybe we should have hung onto our prospects. I'll go for a chance at the cup 10 times out of 10 -- because after all, isnt that the whole purpose of this show

Its very simple really. It is just about value. The assets are gone. Stastny is gone. We didn't win a cup. We didn't win the Conference.

Ask yourself, why did we acquire Stastny? We had a weakness on our team. We still have that weakness. The assets surrendered may or may not have fixed that weakness. But they could have at least been a part of the solution. We need a future 2C. We can debate whether or not Little is adequate for now but we know he won't be for too much longer. If we couldn't have drafted that fix with that pick then it could have been a down payment at least. Bundle the pick and the prospect with another asset and get what we needed ... and still need. Can't do that now. Those assets are gone.

Maybe Roslovic fills that need. Or not. We have other needs. Those assets might have helped fill them .... but they are gone.

I fully expect Trouba to be kept for 2 years and then lost for nothing. Then we will need a 1RD. We have nothing on hand to fill that need. You don't get that with late 2nd round picks. At least not often enough to count on it. You don't often find top 6 C's there either.

Will Chevy trade another first this year? The track record so far says yes, he will.

We may even win a cup in the next 2-3 years. But then we will have had no firsts for a while, Buff and Wheeler and Little will have aged out. We will have to dive back into the lottery to restock and then wait for those picks to develop.

That isn't necessary. We could stay in contention, win a cup, possibly more than one. But only if we manage assets carefully instead of tossing them at rentals.

I just don't believe in short term solutions to long term problems. TD rentals are just band-aids. Very expensive ones that shorten the window of opportunity.
 
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Weezeric

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Where is this 15 years worth of a player from a draft pick coming from? How many Players even have 15 year careers? A drafted player has 7 years of control and the vast majority of players drafted never make the nhl.
 
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Mortimer Snerd

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I really like the logical approach to the assets here (except for the fact that it disagrees with my opinion ;p). I do want to mention though, that not only might Foley and the 1st never make the show, but even when they do, we probably shouldn’t be comparing 15 years of assets compared to 3 months of Stastny, but instead 15 years of assets compared to 3 months of Stastny and 15 years of replacement level talent, right? And in this case, if Foley becomes a decent third line player, the difference between this and a replacement level talent is not very noticeable, and feels much easier to stomach.

I’m honestly not sure if that is a valid distinction to make, so feel free to have at it if you don’t think it makes sense :p

No, I think it does make sense. Replacement level players are always available, by definition. That's what we got a lot of from Atlanta. You can participate in the league with them but you can't win anything with more than a very few of them.

So I agree, we should look just at the difference. That difference may not be very large but it is the difference between winning and just participating. Maybe it makes it a little easier to stomach, but it shouldn't be too much easier.
 

dratbunnies

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No, I think it does make sense. Replacement level players are always available, by definition. That's what we got a lot of from Atlanta. You can participate in the league with them but you can't win anything with more than a very few of them.

So I agree, we should look just at the difference. That difference may not be very large but it is the difference between winning and just participating. Maybe it makes it a little easier to stomach, but it shouldn't be too much easier.
I dunno if it is fair to say that having Foley instead of replacement level player is the difference between winning and just participating. Especially if we are unwilling to say that Stastny over whoever he kicked out of the lineup at the time wasn’t considered a difference between winning and just particupating.

What it does, in my mind, is raise the level Foley and the 1st have to be expected to reach before that present/future tradeoff is too costly.

I mean, that all being said, I definitely feel the same as a few other people in this thread. Happy we showed a willingness to go for it and gave ourselves that opportunity and learning experience, but don’t want to do it too much/would be sad to see it next year.
 

dratbunnies

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Where is this 15 years worth of a player from a draft pick coming from? How many Players even have 15 year careers? A drafted player has 7 years of control and the vast majority of players drafted never make the nhl.
I think the 15 years comes from that 7 years of control per asset, and then two assets being traded. So it is counting Foley AND the pick.
 
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