Speculation: Rumour, Trade, and Free Agent Speculation 2018-19 - Part II

[Whileee]

I don't think he's better than Trouba but if you are comparing him to Chiarot I don't take you seriously as a hockey analyst. You are missing the whole boat. The need us for a shutdown d-man to pair with Buff. So that there is a true top 4 d. Assuming Niku-Poolman are 5-6 next year, with Morrow as 7, the guy needs to kill penalties well, defend. Chiarot has had his stats upgraded by the quality of his teammates. I.e Buff/Myers. Remember Chiarot took awhile to pass Stuart on the depth chart.

Murray got Nutivaara/Savard. Do you think that's comparable?

He's a defensive defenseman. You need those, because Buff, Morrissey, Trouba (or his replacement) Morrow/Niku move the puck well. The 1st 3 have the green light to jump in any time. I'm talking about defending better, and I think Murray-Buff would be a tough pairing. Anyways, it's tiresome. Ehlers is great, potentially. No problems with his play. Just trade Little. He only scores GWGs and kills penalties. And add more puck movers. Problem solved.

My point is that I think Murray is overrated, and wouldn't be worth trading a bona fide top line forward for.

I definitely think that he's better than Chiarot, but the fact that his underlying stats aren't much better than Chiarot's goes a long way to illustrating that his value isn't nearly high enough to trade a top young talent for.

Top-end talent is at a premium in the NHL. You don't trade it for "meh" middle pairing type D.

 

[voyageur]

My point is that I think Murray is overrated, and wouldn't be worth trading a bona fide top line forward for.

I definitely think that he's better than Chiarot, but the fact that his underlying stats aren't much better than Chiarot's goes a long way to illustrating that his value isn't nearly high enough to trade a top young talent for.

Top-end talent is at a premium in the NHL. You don't trade it for "meh" middle pairing type D.

That's fair. I can respect that opinion.

I just see Ehlers not fitting. His last goals were in preseason. One came playing with Roslovic-Lemieux. Lemieux setting the screen. As he did on Perreault's goal against the Yotes. With Little and Laine that's not how he will score. Probably be on the rush, counterattack. Even with Scheifele he won't score greasy. Scheif drives the net slightly better than Little, but fact is best shooters are Scheif and Laine. So I think he fits with Roslovic. But Perreault fits with Little. Does Ehlers fit with Laine? I would say Lemieux who drives the net is a better fit.

Which brings me to the point that Ehlers is probably better as a RW, but we have two good ones ahead of him. You can argue that Laine could play left. On the top line. But that pushes Connor down. And I think Connor's rise has coincided with Ehlers fall, in terms of usage. I still think $6 million is too much for a 2nd PP forward, and streaky scorer. With the fair payouts coming to Laine, Connor and Morrissey, he could be a strain. Making nearly the same as Scheifele, our best player. He doesn't change the possession time arrow like Perreault. The speed that Tanev and Roslovic bring have brought tangible results, because of their "compete" level. Veselainen is going to be a top 6 winger and given his speed and size, I could see him displacing Ehlers.

Maybe my return isn't sufficient. I said Chevy would get more. But I stay adamant that selling high on a player is what good GMs do. The returns that Pacioretty, Galchenyuk, Karlsson and O'Reilly brought show that potential production, in spite of production drops, can bring real production, and improvement, in return.

I have a lot of concerns about Ehlers as a potential playoff bust. Where production really matters.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

I have a lot of concerns about Ehlers as a potential playoff bust. Where production really matters.

Why?

 

[voyageur]

Why?

He doesn't drive the net. If he played a little reckless, like Mc Jesus, with his speed, he'd be more dangerous.

 

[Duke749]

I don't think he's better than Trouba but if you are comparing him to Chiarot I don't take you seriously as a hockey analyst. You are missing the whole boat. The need us for a shutdown d-man to pair with Buff. So that there is a true top 4 d. Assuming Niku-Poolman are 5-6 next year, with Morrow as 7, the guy needs to kill penalties well, defend. Chiarot has had his stats upgraded by the quality of his teammates. I.e Buff/Myers. Remember Chiarot took awhile to pass Stuart on the depth chart.

Murray got Nutivaara/Savard. Do you think that's comparable?

He's a defensive defenseman. You need those, because Buff, Morrissey, Trouba (or his replacement) Morrow/Niku move the puck well. The 1st 3 have the green light to jump in any time. I'm talking about defending better, and I think Murray-Buff would be a tough pairing. Anyways, it's tiresome. Ehlers is great, potentially. No problems with his play. Just trade Little. He only scores GWGs and kills penalties. And add more puck movers. Problem solved.

You can disagree with someone plenty. That’s fair. We all have different opinions. No issue there at all.

But you want to act like someone else’s argument is empty because they use stats that you refuse to try and understand and you lose your credibility. Why don’t you try and understand what they mean instead of ignoring something that you just don’t want to understand.

 

[Duke749]

He doesn't drive the net. If he played a little reckless, like Mc Jesus, with his speed, he'd be more dangerous

That’s a weakass argument. Come back with something better and maybe we’ll take it seriously.

 

[voyageur]

You can disagree with someone plenty. That’s fair. We all have different opinions. No issue there at all.

But you want to act like someone else’s argument is empty because they use stats that you refuse to try and understand and you lose your credibility. Why don’t you try and understand what they mean instead of ignoring something that you just don’t want to understand.

I could ask you the same? Why do you treat stats as science, when they are always subject to interpretation, and never definitive?

 

[surixon]

I have a lot of concerns about Ehlers as a potential playoff bust. Where production really matters.

Well Scheifele was a playoff bust his first time through and we all know how he performed in his second opportunity. I think its silly to give up on young talent when they face some adversity. Ehlers will only be stronger for it his next go around.

Ehlers also performed exceptionally well in the QMJHL playoffs so he has some past experience of raising his game in the post season.

 

[voyageur]

That’s a weakass argument. Come back with something better and maybe we’ll take it seriously.

He has how many goals? While Tanev, Lowry are scoring. From where. Why did we struggle against Vegas. Couldn't get to the net, hit a hot goalie. And Enstrom sucked. Don't talk down to me bud. Come to Winnipeg and learn about hockey. I'll teach you a lesson too.

 

[surixon]

My point is that I think Murray is overrated, and wouldn't be worth trading a bona fide top line forward for.

I definitely think that he's better than Chiarot, but the fact that his underlying stats aren't much better than Chiarot's goes a long way to illustrating that his value isn't nearly high enough to trade a top young talent for.

Top-end talent is at a premium in the NHL. You don't trade it for "meh" middle pairing type D.

Agreed, his own team doesn't really value him that highly seeing as he has been used in a third pairing role the last number of years. He probably would be a solid player to play with Myers on the third pairing but I wouldn't want him in our top 4. I wouldn't consider Ehlers for him plus something.

 

[Duke749]

I could ask you the same? Why do you treat stats as science, when they are always subject to interpretation, and never definitive?

We don’t but the eye test is only so valid. You always throw out sophisticated stats because you don’t want to try and understand them.

 

[Duke749]

He has how many goals? While Tanev, Lowry are scoring. From where. Why did we struggle against Vegas. Couldn't get to the net, hit a hot goalie. And Enstrom sucked. Don't talk down to me bud. Come to Winnipeg and learn about hockey. I'll teach you a lesson too.

“Driving the net” is a weakass argument. That was your reasoning. I know hockey plenty as I’ve come into it from a perspective that most don’t. I’ve come into hockey with an open perspective and have learned a lot from plenty of different people. I wasn’t raised with the old school mentality since I’m the only one in my family to take it up. I can promise you, being from Winnipeg doesn’t suddenly make you understand hockey just as being from the south US doesn’t mean you really understand football. I’ve come into hockey with a broader and more open perspective than most people because of how late I took it up.

 

[voyageur]

We don’t but the eye test is only so valid. You always throw out sophisticated stats because you don’t want to try and understand them.

Sophisticated or sophistry?

I pointed out that a lot of line production was influenced by defensive pairings, like Ehlers-Laine with Buff last year. Morrow-Myers have dragged them down. Morrissey-Trouba are helping Lowry's line with production.

I pointed out the difference in d-partners between Murray and Chiarot. No one commented, why? Murray played 2nd pairing duties on a playoff team that scratched Jack Johnson and gave the Caps a good run.

Scouting report: good skater, good puck mover, not an overly physical defenseman. Blocks shots. An improvement on Benny and Enstrom before him, as he kills penalties.

63% defensive zone draws is pretty high. How does that affect the stats. Why does his coach, who has won a Cup, see him as a solution 2/3 of the time?

Look, I respect you as a poster, and a hockey fan. I'm really tired of arguing. If I wanted to argue all the time I'd get married. Enjoy the game, regardless of differences.

 

[Trinity]

I'll still say that Ehlers is a valuable asset, with a big cap hit (if he is worth 6 million, is Connor worth 7?)
Laine 9?). Getting winning pieces for him, would be something I consider.

Would be interesting to see Ehlers numbers on the Wheeler/Scheifele line, and Connor's numbers playing with Bryan Little as his centre.

 

[Maukkis]

Somebody remind me why we are fixing existing problems with non-existent solutions again.

 

[Trinity]

View attachment 149103 Somebody remind me why we are fixing existing problems with non-existent solutions again.

Can you please explain this in English?

 

[surixon]

Can you please explain this in English?

It essentially means that Ryan Murray scores below average in most metrics in comparison to the rest of the league. The comparison shows that his impact is similiar to Chariot, as such he really isn't a significant enough upgrade on what we have to move out a first line talent for.

 

[Maukkis]

And while we are at it, can we at least take one objective look at Ehlers before deciding that he is the problem?

I hope this doesn't come as a shock, but he kind of is a great driver of offense. The defensive side... not so much, but still not awful.

Corey Sznajder's data expands on this. Last year, Ehlers was 6th in controlled entries per 60 minutes (only behind McD, Gaudreau, Barzal, MacKinnon and Hall - some pretty elite company) and sixth among forwards in controlled exits. With how important transition really is, Ehlers' blazing speed means a lot more than some give him credit for. If you just look at what happens in the offensive zone, you'll find that Ehlers does bits there too - in terms of primary shot contributions (shots and first assists to others' shots) per 60, Ehlers ranks 23rd in the NHL, with a decent gap to the second-place Laine with regards to the Jets. So, we are talking about a player who not only gets the puck to where it should be, but also does a lot with the puck once it is there. This he does with some damn impressive consistency.

Ehlers' skillset has resulted in success in terms of 'less advanced' statistics. Since 2016, Ehlers ranks 31st in 5v5 production/60, with the only Jet in front of him being Scheifele. (among players w/ 1000 minutes played) This is over a sample size of 2356 minutes. Do we want to abandon this /fact/ in favour of a 100-minute one? He is one of the best at drawing penalties (to the surprise of nobody). In terms of CF%, he is third out of current Jets (behind Perreault and Wheeler) and he remains a positive GF% player, although there are several Jets in front of him in this regard. Why does it seem to be the case that over a larger sample size, issues tend to disappear when discussing a great player?

The bottom line: just because your guy is rocking a PDO of 91.0, you shouldn't give up all hope and make a desperation move for the f*** of it.

 

[Maukkis]

Can you please explain this in English?

Ryan Murray is way below average in point production and shot metrics, especially relative to his teammates.

Another version: we should not trade a great young player for a player who we essentially already have in Kulikov.

 

[Trinity]

It essentially means that Ryan Murray scores below average in most metrics in comparison to the rest of the league. The comparison shows that his impact is similiar to Chariot, as such he really isn't a significant enough upgrade on what we have to move out a first line talent for.

Thank you

 

[voyageur]

Ryan Murray is way below average in point production and shot metrics, especially relative to his teammates.

Another version: we should not trade a great young player for a player who we essentially already have in Kulikov.

You'll never get a true answer by manipulating statistics. As proof. Try to spin in as you want. When the government says the unemployment rate is such and such, it is not that number, but only indicative of factors it considered. I want somebody to tell me without a chart how a defenseman who draws 63% of defensive zone starts can be poor defensively. Where's the logic? How does that weigh the numbers?

Meanwhile anybody watching Ehlers can point out that he is not doing what it takes to score.

I proposed Ehlers for Leddy on the board.

As that's a pretty damn fair trade. The Ehlers fanclub doesn't like it, but I'll apply some logic to this discussion.

You have a $6 million forward. You have a top 4 hole on defense. From Enstrom's departure. Niku shows no signs of being able to play unprotected hard top 4 minutes that the Jets need to get out of our division.

Sacrificing Ehlers, with the lines the way they are, would open Roslovic up to 2nd line duties. Duties he was performing last year, when Ehlers/Laine were demoted to Copp's line, and then reinvigorated by Stastny. Anyone genuinely think that Roslovic can't back off d like Ehlers? I know for damn sure he'll win more puck battles, and he has legitimate chemistry with Connor. So we'd have a 2nd line just as good without Ehlers, as with Ehlers. But a top 4 d-man.

Checking line is playing just fine.

So instead of Roslovic playing 6 minutes, you insert Petan. Anyone think that Ehlers runs the half wall of the 2nd PP better than Petan. I doubt there are many.

You still have Perreault as a replacement level top 6.

Lemieux has shown his worth, but the Jets, through proper development, could bring in Suess-Veselainen to replace Lemieux/Petan at any time in the 2nd half of the season. Griffith is a potential call up too. Appleton and Harkins are making strides in their 2nd year too.

I think the Jets like Perreault for his versatility, and veteran leadership. I think moving him disrupts the team chemistry (wives) more than Ehlers. Especially for what you are getting, performance wise, in real, tangible stats. O goals, and a -. At Forward we have depth.

We can promote Niku-Poolman into a 3rd pairing next year, let Myers walk, buyout Kulikov and still have money to keep Morrissey/Laine/Connor long term. That's the core, and if Trouba doesn't re-sign you can build even more entry level assets and picks from trading him.

I think Ehlers is the piece to move to get that top 4 d. And let younger, hungrier players work their way up.

 

[DRW204]

And while we are at it, can we at least take one objective look at Ehlers before deciding that he is the problem?

I hope this doesn't come as a shock, but he kind of is a great driver of offense. The defensive side... not so much, but still not awful.

Corey Sznajder's data expands on this. Last year, Ehlers was 6th in controlled entries per 60 minutes (only behind McD, Gaudreau, Barzal, MacKinnon and Hall - some pretty elite company) and sixth among forwards in controlled exits. With how important transition really is, Ehlers' blazing speed means a lot more than some give him credit for. If you just look at what happens in the offensive zone, you'll find that Ehlers does bits there too - in terms of primary shot contributions (shots and first assists to others' shots) per 60, Ehlers ranks 23rd in the NHL, with a decent gap to the second-place Laine with regards to the Jets. So, we are talking about a player who not only gets the puck to where it should be, but also does a lot with the puck once it is there. This he does with some damn impressive consistency.

Ehlers' skillset has resulted in success in terms of 'less advanced' statistics. Since 2016, Ehlers ranks 31st in 5v5 production/60, with the only Jet in front of him being Scheifele. (among players w/ 1000 minutes played) This is over a sample size of 2356 minutes. Do we want to abandon this /fact/ in favour of a 100-minute one? He is one of the best at drawing penalties (to the surprise of nobody). In terms of CF%, he is third out of current Jets (behind Perreault and Wheeler) and he remains a positive GF% player, although there are several Jets in front of him in this regard. Why does it seem to be the case that over a larger sample size, issues tend to disappear when discussing a great player?

The bottom line: just because your guy is rocking a PDO of 91.0, you shouldn't give up all hope and make a desperation move for the **** of it.

are you able to provide/speak on these charts on Brett Pesce? I think hockeyviz limits access now to subscribers

 

[Sweech]

Ryan Murray is almost never healthy. I'd never trade for that kind of player.

I also wouldn't trade away Ehlers - especially not for a defensemen until Niku gets his shot. Plus the defensemen being mentioned are mostly sub-par.

 

[Maukkis]

You'll never get a true answer by manipulating statistics. As proof. Try to spin in as you want. When the government says the unemployment rate is such and such, it is not that number, but only indicative of factors it considered. I want somebody to tell me without a chart how a defenseman who draws 63% of defensive zone starts can be poor defensively. Where's the logic? How does that weigh the numbers?

Meanwhile anybody watching Ehlers can point out that he is not doing what it takes to score.

I proposed Ehlers for Leddy on the board.

As that's a pretty damn fair trade. The Ehlers fanclub doesn't like it, but I'll apply some logic to this discussion.

You have a $6 million forward. You have a top 4 hole on defense. From Enstrom's departure. Niku shows no signs of being able to play unprotected hard top 4 minutes that the Jets need to get out of our division.

Sacrificing Ehlers, with the lines the way they are, would open Roslovic up to 2nd line duties. Duties he was performing last year, when Ehlers/Laine were demoted to Copp's line, and then reinvigorated by Stastny. Anyone genuinely think that Roslovic can't back off d like Ehlers? I know for damn sure he'll win more puck battles, and he has legitimate chemistry with Connor. So we'd have a 2nd line just as good without Ehlers, as with Ehlers. But a top 4 d-man.

Checking line is playing just fine.

So instead of Roslovic playing 6 minutes, you insert Petan. Anyone think that Ehlers runs the half wall of the 2nd PP better than Petan. I doubt there are many.

You still have Perreault as a replacement level top 6.

Lemieux has shown his worth, but the Jets, through proper development, could bring in Suess-Veselainen to replace Lemieux/Petan at any time in the 2nd half of the season. Griffith is a potential call up too. Appleton and Harkins are making strides in their 2nd year too.

I think the Jets like Perreault for his versatility, and veteran leadership. I think moving him disrupts the team chemistry (wives) more than Ehlers. Especially for what you are getting, performance wise, in real, tangible stats. O goals, and a -. At Forward we have depth.

We can promote Niku-Poolman into a 3rd pairing next year, let Myers walk, buyout Kulikov and still have money to keep Morrissey/Laine/Connor long term. That's the core, and if Trouba doesn't re-sign you can build even more entry level assets and picks from trading him.

I think Ehlers is the piece to move to get that top 4 d. And let younger, hungrier players work their way up.

The Jets sign mister Mauk Kis, a left shot defenseman. Because the guy has never played and cannot produce a single thing in the offensive zone, Maurice decides to use him in the defensive zone - and nowhere else. As a result, 100% of his zone starts have been in the DZ. Is he a defensively good defenseman, or just a linguistics student who got a contract for absolutely no reason?

Given the way you argue, I reckon you would hold me in high regard.

As for Ehlers, you are seriously of the opinion that we should discard a larger set of data and believe that his slump is a true indicator of him as a player? Gimme Leddy any day of the week, but not if the trade to get him is as stupid as the one you're suggesting.

 

[voyageur]

The Jets sign mister Mauk Kis, a left shot defenseman. Because the guy has never played and cannot produce a single thing in the offensive zone, Maurice decides to use him in the defensive zone - and nowhere else. As a result, 100% of his zone starts have been in the DZ. Is he a defensively good defenseman, or just a linguistics student who got a contract for absolutely no reason?

Given the way you argue, I reckon you would hold me in high regard.

As for Ehlers, you are seriously of the opinion that we should discard a larger set of data and believe that his slump is a true indicator of him as a player? Gimme Leddy any day of the week, but not if the trade to get him is as stupid as the one you're suggesting.

You are defeating your own argument by stating that somehow the coaches are dumber than you. Thanks though.