Speculation: Rumour, Trade, and Free Agent Speculation 2018-19 - Part II

[Gm0ney]

Yeah, lots of injury questions with Murray. His average GP/season is 53, if that stat isn't too fancy for you. He's a less offensive Zach Bogosian.

 

[Duke749]

You are defeating your own argument by stating that somehow the coaches are dumber than you. Thanks though.

That’s not what he said but thanks for “manipulating” his words. Rather ironic really.

 

[voyageur]

That’s not what he said but thanks for “manipulating” his words. Rather ironic really.

That's exactly the point. If a coach uses a player in a defensive situation he trusts him defensively. That's logic a=b. Logic also predetermined that if Little plays well with Roslovic, Roslovic plays well with Connor. The line should be an equal triangle. Ehlers doesn't fit the triangle anymore. Stats guys tried to blame Little. But Little has 2 GWGs one GTG =6 Pts. Ehlers has 0 goals, gave up one GWG (-1 pt), and is -6 (one coming last night by failing to cover his point). But he's in a slump, lol.

Dude I studied philosophy, play chess, and hockey, you're going to have to do better, if you want to prove me wrong.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

The fewer the bidders the lower the bids.

This isn't necessarily true. All you need are two really motivated bidders to drive prices at an auction sky high. Come on, Florida and Detroit. You know you want him.

 

[Duke749]

That's exactly the point. If a coach uses a player in a defensive situation he trusts him defensively. That's logic a=b. Logic also predetermined that if Little plays well with Roslovic, Roslovic plays well with Connor. The line should be an equal triangle. Ehlers doesn't fit the triangle anymore. Stats guys tried to blame Little. But Little has 2 GWGs one GTG =6 Pts. Ehlers has 0 goals, gave up one GWG (-1 pt), and is -6 (one coming last night by failing to cover his point). But he's in a slump, lol.

Dude I studied philosophy, play chess, and hockey, you're going to have to do better, if you want to prove me wrong.

So you think Stuart was good defensively and on the PK then?

You’re never gonna be proven wrong because you either change the argument or refuse to accept what is provided.

 

[voyageur]

So you think Stuart was good defensively and on the PK then?

Luckily I have better things to do than argue today. With Trouba he was passable defensively, like Chiarot with Buff. But he wasn't good on the PK. The Jets as a whole weren't good on the PK, until they really changed their ways, giving roster spots to guys like Tanev and Copp, acquiring Armia. And promoting Morrissey. Systematically we were flawed, playing to heavy while the game was changing to playing fast.

I don't refuse it, I refute it. You have to interpret statistics, as a whole, not a sum. People often ignore what they see now because of what they are lead to believe, through manipulation. Hockey is not a pure statistical game, with 5 different parts working in conjunction. That's why analysis is needed. I would love if somebody responded to any of the questions in my argument, but emotions lead people to stray from logic.

 

[Maukkis]

You are defeating your own argument by stating that somehow the coaches are dumber than you. Thanks though.

That is absolutely not what I said. What a piss poor argument.

Playing tough minutes and doing well while doing so are two entirely different things. If a coach trusts Murray to play tough minutes but he does jack shit doing so, what does that mean? Is it because the coach loves Murray and trusts him despite objective data stating that it is a bad idea? Is it because Columbus has no other option? Is it because somebody lacks the skills of analysing results and sees Murray as a fit there? The possibilities are endless. However, any amount of trust does not change the results, and they seem to state that Murray is not much of an upgrade over what we have.

 

[voyageur]

That is absolutely not what I said. What a piss poor argument.

Playing tough minutes and doing well while doing so are two entirely different things. If a coach trusts Murray to play tough minutes but he does jack **** doing so, what does that mean? Is it because the coach loves Murray and trusts him despite objective data stating that it is a bad idea? Is it because Columbus has no other option? Is it because somebody lacks the skills of analysing results and sees Murray as a fit there? The possibilities are endless. However, any amount of trust does not change the results, and they seem to state that Murray is not much of an upgrade over what we have.

You still don't get it. Comparing a guy with 63% d-zone to one with 48% isn't a level playing field. Especially when the d partners are Nutivaara and Savard, vs Buff and Myers. And some Trouba if I remember. Comparables? Then you take faceoffs, which is a big part of possession, starting with the puck vs chasing it. You are looking at the stats wrong, but the results show the same player. One who played sheltered minutes vs one who didn't. The Jackets scratched Jack Johnson but kept playing Murray when acquiring Cole. And the almost beat the Caps. Lost in OT. I'm fine without Murray. I moved on to Leddy as my choice, good Minnesota kid. Good contract for a top 4 d, miscast as a #1. Since Little isn't the problem, when does Ehlers become the problem for his own lack of production?

 

[Whileee]

You'll never get a true answer by manipulating statistics. As proof. Try to spin in as you want. When the government says the unemployment rate is such and such, it is not that number, but only indicative of factors it considered. I want somebody to tell me without a chart how a defenseman who draws 63% of defensive zone starts can be poor defensively. Where's the logic? How does that weigh the numbers?

Meanwhile anybody watching Ehlers can point out that he is not doing what it takes to score.

I proposed Ehlers for Leddy on the board.

As that's a pretty damn fair trade. The Ehlers fanclub doesn't like it, but I'll apply some logic to this discussion.

You have a $6 million forward. You have a top 4 hole on defense. From Enstrom's departure. Niku shows no signs of being able to play unprotected hard top 4 minutes that the Jets need to get out of our division.

Sacrificing Ehlers, with the lines the way they are, would open Roslovic up to 2nd line duties. Duties he was performing last year, when Ehlers/Laine were demoted to Copp's line, and then reinvigorated by Stastny. Anyone genuinely think that Roslovic can't back off d like Ehlers? I know for damn sure he'll win more puck battles, and he has legitimate chemistry with Connor. So we'd have a 2nd line just as good without Ehlers, as with Ehlers. But a top 4 d-man.

Checking line is playing just fine.

So instead of Roslovic playing 6 minutes, you insert Petan. Anyone think that Ehlers runs the half wall of the 2nd PP better than Petan. I doubt there are many.

You still have Perreault as a replacement level top 6.

Lemieux has shown his worth, but the Jets, through proper development, could bring in Suess-Veselainen to replace Lemieux/Petan at any time in the 2nd half of the season. Griffith is a potential call up too. Appleton and Harkins are making strides in their 2nd year too.

I think the Jets like Perreault for his versatility, and veteran leadership. I think moving him disrupts the team chemistry (wives) more than Ehlers. Especially for what you are getting, performance wise, in real, tangible stats. O goals, and a -. At Forward we have depth.

We can promote Niku-Poolman into a 3rd pairing next year, let Myers walk, buyout Kulikov and still have money to keep Morrissey/Laine/Connor long term. That's the core, and if Trouba doesn't re-sign you can build even more entry level assets and picks from trading him.

I think Ehlers is the piece to move to get that top 4 d. And let younger, hungrier players work their way up.

Murray has just over 50% D zone starts over the past 2+ seasons, 5th among D on his team. I guess the coach doesn't have much faith in him defensively, right?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

This isn't necessarily true. All you need are two really motivated bidders to drive prices at an auction sky high. Come on, Florida and Detroit. You know you want him.

Those are the 2 I think most likely to sit out a bidding war. They can let NYI trade for him next off-season and have very good odds of getting him in UFA a year later. Especially Fla. I know it is what I would do in Tallon's place. Of course, I have no idea what he might do. But it looks like a real good gamble to me.

 

[Whileee]

Those are the 2 I think most likely to sit out a bidding war. They can let NYI trade for him next off-season and have very good odds of getting him in UFA a year later. Especially Fla. I know it is what I would do in Tallon's place. Of course, I have no idea what he might do. But it looks like a real good gamble to me.

If Detroit or Florida acquire him, it seems very likely he'll sign long term with them. He gets a bigger payday next year, and up to 8 years of security. If both teams want him, they'll need to secure him in a trade. There might also be other wild cards. Whatever transpires, Trouba having a really strong season is good for the Jets in a few ways.

 

[Whileee]

Hmmmm... A long extension would be nice.

 

[KingBogo]

Hmmmm... A long extension would be nice.

If I'm not mistaken nothing can be signed until January 1st.

 

[Whileee]

If I'm not mistaken nothing can be signed until January 1st.

You're right, but they can negotiate now. I think Chevy is going to make a push to sign him and if he can't he'll trade him around the draft.

 

[surixon]

You're right, but they can negotiate now. I think Chevy is going to make a push to sign him and if he can't he'll trade him around the draft.

Yeah they can agree to anything prior to January, they just can't officially sign anything.

Chevy should do everything he can to lock our top pairing up long term even if he has to overpay for Trouba. They are both crucial to success and as mentioned earlier I would rather overpay by a million or so for cornerstone players instead of overpaying by a million for our depth pieces cough Kulikov cough

 

[KingBogo]

Yeah they can agree to anything prior to January, they just can't officially sign anything.

I've pretty much given up on Trouba being a Jet long term, but it sure would be nice. Jake and Josh make up one really nice top pairing.

 

[Gil Fisher]

Yeah they can agree to anything prior to January, they just can't officially sign anything.

Chevy should do everything he can to lock our top pairing up long term even if he has to overpay for Trouba. They are both crucial to success and as mentioned earlier I would rather overpay by a million or so for cornerstone players instead of overpaying by a million for our depth pieces cough Kulikov cough

at this point, i prefer overpaying to "undertrading" Trouba....if you know what I mean.

 

[Board Bard]

Chevy and Overhardt could be talking about a Petan trade for all we know.

 

[Adam da bomb]

How do you afford to overpay Trouba??

 

[JetsFan815]

Chevy and Overhardt could be talking about a Petan trade for all we know.

That's what I think is going on.

 

[GNP]

With all this talk about Trouba's contract over the last 3 years, wouldn't it be ironic if Trouba was to sign long term with the Jets, and then we lost Morrissey on a contract dispute. That would be a real mind blower, and it could happen.

Everybody thinks that Morrissey is a "given" to sign long term at a decent price, but you never really know ??

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

How do you afford to overpay Trouba??

Depends by how much and how much is an overpay. Considering our alternatives - how do you not afford it?

OTOH, what Trouba gets will influence what JoMo gets. If Trouba gets an extra mil, Morrissey will also want an extra mil - and with PP1 time he is going to have the scoring to command more money.

 

[surixon]

Chevy and Overhardt could be talking about a Petan trade for all we know.

Overhardt isn't Petan's agent. His agent is part of Overhardt's firm but I doubt Kurt would get involved and meet with Chevy alone with another agents client.

 

[KingBogo]

Overhardt isn't Petan's agent. His agent is part of Overhardt's firm but I doubt Kurt would get involved and meet with Chevy alone with another agents client.

For now I will hold on to a positive vibe that Trouba is open to signing long term.

 

[DRW204]

Overhardt isn't Petan's agent. His agent is part of Overhardt's firm but I doubt Kurt would get involved and meet with Chevy alone with another agents client.

what about copp