Speculation: Rumour, Trade, and Free Agent Speculation 2018-19 - Part II

[Weezeric]

True but it's all about Trouba. Any team that is in talks with us will want to talk to Trouba about an extension. And if we want to maximize return we would let them. At that point he has his pick of the litter. Say the Rangers put up a big offer for them but he tells them he only wants to sign with Detroit long term. Well then they likely lessen their offer as he is potentially only a rental now which doesn't bode well for a team that is still building. Say Detroit talks to him and he says hell yeah you guys are the spot i want to be in. Well they may just say screw it we will wait until he hits FA. It's a gamble for sure but they lose zero assets.

Limiting yourself to one team and eliminating any competition to drive up salary would be beyond stupid and I doubt any agent would do it.

 

[Daximus]

There is always the chance that we find a desperate team, but I'm afraid we will be desperate ourselves. The sharks (not SJS) can small blood in the water.

So far, my predicted most likely landing spots are being eliminated one-by-one. TBL have got themselves in deep cap hell. Fla doesn't need another 1st pair, 7.5 mil RHD. SJS just got Karlsson. If he walks they might be back in the race, but how often has Wilson lost a trade? Dallas just spent a bundle on Seguin but they will recover some cap next year. Nill has been a good trader but it isn't working out for him. They are going to compete with Chi for last in the Div, IMO. Nill may well be gone. Will his replacement want to start off with a big trade? Nill like? Unlikely, I think. My guess is that leaves the NY area teams & Philly. Don't know if any others would be on Trouba's acceptable list. Oh, forgot DRW.

I have a feeling Detroit is really high on his list. The trouble is they are rebuilding. Especially with Zets done for good now. Will they pony up assets for a young dman when they are looking at quite a few years before they can contend again?

 

[Daximus]

Limiting yourself to one team and eliminating any competition to drive up salary would be beyond stupid and I doubt any agent would do it.

In the end who knows. Maybe Trouba values a place he likes over money. Though I doubt it.

 

[ecolad]

There is always the chance that we find a desperate team, but I'm afraid we will be desperate ourselves. The sharks (not SJS) can small blood in the water.

So far, my predicted most likely landing spots are being eliminated one-by-one. TBL have got themselves in deep cap hell. Fla doesn't need another 1st pair, 7.5 mil RHD. SJS just got Karlsson. If he walks they might be back in the race, but how often has Wilson lost a trade? Dallas just spent a bundle on Seguin but they will recover some cap next year. Nill has been a good trader but it isn't working out for him. They are going to compete with Chi for last in the Div, IMO. Nill may well be gone. Will his replacement want to start off with a big trade? Nill like? Unlikely, I think. My guess is that leaves the NY area teams & Philly. Don't know if any others would be on Trouba's acceptable list. Oh, forgot DRW.

Detroit seems like a nice potential trade partner from several perspectives BUT nobody can be sure if GM Holland will continue to be the guy, or whether he will "step aside" to perhaps let Yzerman back home some time in the near future. Think this needs to be reconciled before direction is set and a possible major trade (Trouba) would be entertained. But who knows... .

 

[ecolad]

I have a feeling Detroit is really high on his list. The trouble is they are rebuilding. Especially with Zets done for good now. Will they pony up assets for a young dman when they are looking at quite a few years before they can contend again?

Quite true. We would have to hope that Detroit management take the view that securing an established top line D like Trouba early in the "building process" would be the way to go. You know, such opportunities don`t arise very often, riight?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I have a feeling Detroit is really high on his list. The trouble is they are rebuilding. Especially with Zets done for good now. Will they pony up assets for a young dman when they are looking at quite a few years before they can contend again?

Key is young Dman. At 24 he is a good age for a rebuilding team. DRW's rebuild hasn't really started yet and might be a slow one, because of cap issues. I see JT as a good match for rebuilding NYR. Not so sure about rebuilding DRW.

They have a lot of cap coming off next year. They will still have a lot of LTIR available. The only good way to use the LTIR is to take on some expensive young players. Back and forth.

The trouble would be the young assets we would want in exchange.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Detroit seems like a nice potential trade partner from several perspectives BUT nobody can be sure if GM Holland will continue to be the guy, or whether he will "step aside" to perhaps let Yzerman back home some time in the near future. Think this needs to be reconciled before direction is set and a possible major trade (Trouba) would be entertained. But who knows... .

Could be. OTOH, maybe we need to take advantage of Holland while he is still there. I keep remembering that he wanted Stanley. Stanley is starting to show better. That might just whet his appetite for an overpay.

Problem I have is finding enough value in their system to make it worth our assets. I don't think they part with Larkin, Zadina or '19 1st.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

It's not the Draisaitl contract that causes problems.

On the other hand, say hello to Kris Russell and Milan Lucic, who are making 2 million more than Dr. Drai for god knows what reason.

The Oilers are yet another reason why you, a hockey fan who reads this, should recognise that it is the middle range guy who puts you into cap hell and not the high-end guy. Drai gives you top line impact, whereas Lucic and Russell... bleh.

Applying this to the Jets, ditching Myers is the best course of action, (especially) if it lets us lock up Morrissey and/or Trouba.

The part I don't agree with is the statement that it is the mid range guys who put you in cap hell. That depends on their contracts. Mid range guys paid like top end guys will do it (Lucic). So will bottom end guys paid like mid range guys (Russell). Then there are the top end guys paid like franchise players (Drai). Take each of those guys at 2 mil less and with less term and movement protection and it doesn't look nearly as bad. Though 2 mil is still way too much for Russell. Take another half mil from him, give it to Lucic and hope he delivers on his promised weight loss/quickness improvement. And knock 2 years off his term while we are at it. That = RNH's cap hit. It is too big contracts that do it.

They can sign Nurse and move on.

 

[Daximus]

Quite true. We would have to hope that Detroit management take the view that securing an established top line D like Trouba early in the "building process" would be the way to go. You know, such opportunities don`t arise very often, riight?

Key is young Dman. At 24 he is a good age for a rebuilding team. DRW's rebuild hasn't really started yet and might be a slow one, because of cap issues. I see JT as a good match for rebuilding NYR. Not so sure about rebuilding DRW.

They have a lot of cap coming off next year. They will still have a lot of LTIR available. The only good way to use the LTIR is to take on some expensive young players. Back and forth.

The trouble would be the young assets we would want in exchange.

Definitely agree but then it comes down to how much they feel that is worth. And can they make him a solid offer in FA without losing assets. They actually have a pretty solid 24 and under stable of players.


Mantha - 24
Athanasiou 24
Bertuzzi - 23
Larkin - 22
Svechnikov - 21
Hicketts - 21
Cholowski - 20
Hronek - 20
Rasmussen - 19
Petruzzeli - 19
Zadina - 18
Veleno - 18
McIsaac - 18
Berggren - 18

That's a pretty good group of young guys and they are surrounded by a lot of aging players (2nd oldest team in the league). Having someone of Trouba's calibre in there could really help them. They seem to have pretty solid center depth. Maybe we can pry Rasmussen or Veleno out of there along with Mike Green as a short term Trouba replacement. He's signed for two more years at a hit of $5.375. He has an NMC but he might wave it to come to a contender.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

How would it not be risky (and more expensive)? You just named 5 teams who would be after him. If they trade for him and extend him it takes away all the competition.

Tampa can't handle his cap. There is no obvious cap moves that will make it possible. Why would Fla want him? People keep ignoring the fact that they have a young, 1RHD with a 7.5 cap hit already. By the end of this season Chi is going to have to admit that they need to start a full rebuild. DRW have serious cap issues, the very early stages of a rebuild and a lack of assets to give in return. That just leaves the 2 NY teams. Both are rebuilding but both could handle it and have assets they could part with. Just 2 teams, both iffy, don't constitute much of a bidding war. There may be a couple of others but are any of them drooling over the prospect of getting Trouba?

 

[ecolad]

Could be. OTOH, maybe we need to take advantage of Holland while he is still there. I keep remembering that he wanted Stanley. Stanley is starting to show better. That might just whet his appetite for an overpay.

Problem I have is finding enough value in their system to make it worth our assets. I don't think they part with Larkin, Zadina or '19 1st.

Agree. If we think they will step back in the next year or two, maybe a 2020 1st?, together with Veleno? Or maybe we would have interest in Hronek (RD)?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Agree. If we think they will step back in the next year or two, maybe a 2020 1st?, together with Veleno? Or maybe we would have interest in Hronek (RD)?

I forgot they had Veleno. I thought he was a top 10-15 talent in the draft. Him + Hronek would be interesting.

 

[Maukkis]

The part I don't agree with is the statement that it is the mid range guys who put you in cap hell. That depends on their contracts. Mid range guys paid like top end guys will do it (Lucic). So will bottom end guys paid like mid range guys (Russell). Then there are the top end guys paid like franchise players (Drai). Take each of those guys at 2 mil less and with less term and movement protection and it doesn't look nearly as bad. Though 2 mil is still way too much for Russell. Take another half mil from him, give it to Lucic and hope he delivers on his promised weight loss/quickness improvement. And knock 2 years off his term while we are at it. That = RNH's cap hit. It is too big contracts that do it.

They can sign Nurse and move on.

How many times has an overpaid top line player held his team back as much as overpaid middle range guys?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

How many times has an overpaid top line player held his team back as much as overpaid middle range guys?

IDK, no idea at all. I don't think there is any difference. It is overpaying that does it. It is giving out contracts that players live up to for the first half of the term but become boat anchors in the last half. So how about bottom to mid range guys who used to be high end players? That might be the most common problem. Then there are the '1 good year' wonders, like Clarkson. It is any kind of bad contract. Though you can overpay a replacement level player by 50% and it is only 4-500k. Do that routinely though and it adds up.

If you could refine GM'ing down to 4-5 maxims, there wouldn't be any bad GM's. 'Trade the future for the now while in a window of competing'. 'Don't sign mid range players to big $$$ contracts'. 'Don't sign players over 32 to more than 3 year terms'. Two or three more and we have GM'ing down pat.

 

[Daximus]

IDK, no idea at all. I don't think there is any difference. It is overpaying that does it. It is giving out contracts that players live up to for the first half of the term but become boat anchors in the last half. So how about bottom to mid range guys who used to be high end players? That might be the most common problem. Then there are the '1 good year' wonders, like Clarkson. It is any kind of bad contract. Though you can overpay a replacement level player by 50% and it is only 4-500k. Do that routinely though and it adds up.

If you could refine GM'ing down to 4-5 maxims, there wouldn't be any bad GM's. 'Trade the future for the now while in a window of competing'. 'Don't sign mid range players to big $$$ contracts'. 'Don't sign players over 32 to more than 3 year terms'. Two or three more and we have GM'ing down pat.

It really doesn't seem that hard does it? I think what makes things so confusing for some GM's is the 50 voices in the background each telling him to do something different. You don't want to surround yourself with yes men, but the difference of opinion rather then just sticking to a basic plan is probably overhwelming.

 

[Maukkis]

IDK, no idea at all. I don't think there is any difference. It is overpaying that does it. It is giving out contracts that players live up to for the first half of the term but become boat anchors in the last half. So how about bottom to mid range guys who used to be high end players? That might be the most common problem. Then there are the '1 good year' wonders, like Clarkson. It is any kind of bad contract. Though you can overpay a replacement level player by 50% and it is only 4-500k. Do that routinely though and it adds up.

If you could refine GM'ing down to 4-5 maxims, there wouldn't be any bad GM's. 'Trade the future for the now while in a window of competing'. 'Don't sign mid range players to big $$$ contracts'. 'Don't sign players over 32 to more than 3 year terms'. Two or three more and we have GM'ing down pat.

Absolutely disagree.

Overpay a star, and you are paying more for top flight talent who can have an enormous impact and can fill a roster spot that is really tough to fill. You might not have great depth, which hurts.

Overpay a depth guy (by the same arbitrary amount), and you have an easily replaceable guy who has a small impact, is tough to get rid of and makes it tougher to keep actually good players on the team.

Which problem is easier to solve: acquiring cheap depth, or acquiring stars with limited cap space?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

It really doesn't seem that hard does it? I think what makes things so confusing for some GM's is the 50 voices in the background each telling him to do something different. You don't want to surround yourself with yes men, but the difference of opinion rather then just sticking to a basic plan is probably overhwelming.

I'm reminded of the video of Flyers picking Morin. I just saw another video of BB's deciding to trade Seguin. Eerily similar. In both cases, if I'm honest I could see myself sitting in the GM's chair and making the same mistake.

As I recall it, the difference between the 2 was that in the Flyers case there were a couple of voices pushing the room to accept their opinion. The GM went along. In the Bruins one the GM (Chiarelli) started off kind of limply leaning toward trading him and the rest of the room jumped on the bandwagon, quite strongly pushing him over the edge. He made it so easy for them.

The similarity was a couple of loud voices creating a consensus with very little analysis or actual rational argument. Morin was big. Say that loudly, 3 different ways. Repeat. Seguin was not physical, did not play "our kind of game", loudly. Repeat.

The GM needs to listen to all those voices but not be bowled over by them. He needs to know his own mind and make the decision after hearing all the opinions. It still needs to be his decision, not the committee's. Not easy to do.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Absolutely disagree.

Overpay a star, and you are paying more for top flight talent who can have an enormous impact and can fill a roster spot that is really tough to fill. You might not have great depth, which hurts.

Overpay a depth guy (by the same arbitrary amount), and you have an easily replaceable guy who has a small impact, is tough to get rid of and makes it tougher to keep actually good players on the team.

Which problem is easier to solve: acquiring cheap depth, or acquiring stars with limited cap space?

So many ways to go wrong.

Fortunately there is also more than one way to go right.

 

[Gil Fisher]

I have a feeling Detroit is really high on his list. The trouble is they are rebuilding. Especially with Zets done for good now. Will they pony up assets for a young dman when they are looking at quite a few years before they can contend again?

I've heard that he doesn't want to play in Detroit.

 

[Daximus]

I've heard that he doesn't want to play in Detroit.

I've heard a thousand different things. It's hard to tell which if any are correct.

 

[mcpw]

I've heard Frolik's wife doesn't like Winnipeg.

 

[JetsUK]

I've heard that he doesn't want to play in Detroit.

I'm betting it's FLA or bust, for the Troubster.

 

[DeepFrickinValue]

My money is on Trouba going for UFA and getting huge deal. 7 x $9 type money.

 

[Whileee]

My money is on Trouba going for UFA and getting huge deal. 7 x $9 type money.

If he does, it will be after the Jets trade him to another team...

 

[MrBoJangelz71]

Toronto has about $13.3 m in cap space, 4.5 in bonuses plus 2.5 in bonus carry over from last year, which leaves them just over $6m in cap space.

Not sure how the are going to sign Nylander under that, see thus hold out being a lengthy one