Speculation: Rumour, Trade, and Free Agent Speculation 2018-19 - Part II

[Mortimer Snerd]

*Myers' money.

That's another likely option - but if we accept the need to keep Myers because of RHD uncertainty and lack of depth, then Matty P has to be on top of the move list.

 

[Maukkis]

That's another likely option - but if we accept the need to keep Myers because of RHD uncertainty and lack of depth, then Matty P has to be on top of the move list.

There is no need to keep Myers at the price it will take to re-sign him. In fact, he would be just another Kulikov - overpaid third pairing guy. I have no idea why people pretend that he is anything close to an answer when Trouba leaves.

If the report of Edmonton shopping for a veteran defenseman is true, I sincerely hope that Chevy can trade Myers there and get out of the trap he would likely set off himself next summer. Let Poolman get a fair shake on the third pairing, recoup futures, get cap space for signing Morrissey long term.

 

[Whileee]

There is no need to keep Myers at the price it will take to re-sign him. In fact, he would be just another Kulikov - overpaid third pairing guy. I have no idea why people pretend that he is anything close to an answer when Trouba leaves.

If the report of Edmonton shopping for a veteran defenseman is true, I sincerely hope that Chevy can trade Myers and get out of the trap he would likely set off himself next summer. Let Poolman get a fair shake on the third pairing, recoup futures, get cap space for signing Morrissey long term.

Not a chance that Edmonton can absorb Myers' cap hit. They can't even afford to re-sign Nurse. The Jets would need to absorb a bad contract or two.

 

[drumzan]

As I mentioned in another thread, despite his low goal totals and despite his games missed, every single person who has built a model to isolate a player’s impact on the team values Perreault very differently than some of the people here...

Now that doesn’t mean keep or don’t keep. You need to add other variables to varying degrees, such as: age curves, contracts, cap, financials, fit in room, potential return, etc.

Perreault still provides more value last season than the Jets paid for.

I mean... he mad Hendricks almost look like a NHL player!!! Matt ****ing Hendricks!!

*HendGRITS

 

[Maukkis]

Not a chance that Edmonton can absorb Myers' cap hit. They can't even afford to re-sign Nurse. The Jets would need to absorb a bad contract or two.

That's true.

Sigh.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Not a chance that Edmonton can absorb Myers' cap hit. They can't even afford to re-sign Nurse. The Jets would need to absorb a bad contract or two.

Is Sekera going to be LTIR'd? 5.5 mil there.

Edit: I've been saying since the Draisaitl signing that they have no choice but to move RNH. I think the time has come.

 

[Whileee]

Is Sekera going to be LTIR'd? 5.5 mil there.

Edit: I've been saying since the Draisaitl signing that they have no choice but to move RNH. I think the time has come.

LTIR won't help much because they have about 2.5 m in performance bonuses. As I understand the rules, if the go over cap expenditure for replacing someone on LTIR and also pay out performance bonuses, those bonuses count against the cap next season.

The Oilers are right against the cap and will struggle to fit Nurse in without dumping salary.

The Lucic and Russell contracts are killing them.

 

[Daximus]

LTIR won't help much because they have about 2.5 m in performance bonuses. As I understand the rules, if the go over cap expenditure for replacing someone on LTIR and also pay out performance bonuses, those bonuses count against the cap next season.

The Oilers are right against the cap and will struggle to fit Nurse in without dumping salary.

The Lucic and Russell contracts are killing them.

Yeah they really put themselves in a hole. They likely will have to dump some decent prospects in order to move those contracts. Something they really can't afford to do. I really hope they don't ruin the next 8 years of McDavid because of Chiarelli. Guy is one of the worst GM's in the league.

 

[Maukkis]

Is Sekera going to be LTIR'd? 5.5 mil there.

Edit: I've been saying since the Draisaitl signing that they have no choice but to move RNH. I think the time has come.

It's not the Draisaitl contract that causes problems.

On the other hand, say hello to Kris Russell and Milan Lucic, who are making 2 million more than Dr. Drai for god knows what reason.

The Oilers are yet another reason why you, a hockey fan who reads this, should recognise that it is the middle range guy who puts you into cap hell and not the high-end guy. Drai gives you top line impact, whereas Lucic and Russell... bleh.

Applying this to the Jets, ditching Myers is the best course of action, (especially) if it lets us lock up Morrissey and/or Trouba.

 

[Whileee]

It's not the Draisaitl contract that causes problems.

On the other hand, say hello to Kris Russell and Milan Lucic, who are making 2 million more than Dr. Drai for god knows what reason.

The Oilers are yet another reason why you, a hockey fan who reads this, should recognise that it is the middle range guy who puts you into cap hell and not the high-end guy. Drai gives you top line impact, whereas Lucic and Russell... bleh.

Applying this to the Jets, ditching Myers is the best course of action, (especially) if it lets us lock up Morrissey and/or Trouba.

Agree about the Oilers.

They really need Yamamoto and Puljujarvi to become legit top-6 wingers. If not, they are going to be spinning their wheels.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

LTIR won't help much because they have about 2.5 m in performance bonuses. As I understand the rules, if the go over cap expenditure for replacing someone on LTIR and also pay out performance bonuses, those bonuses count against the cap next season.

The Oilers are right against the cap and will struggle to fit Nurse in without dumping salary.

The Lucic and Russell contracts are killing them.

Agree - But if they don't dump salary, or don't dump enough, the LTIR still helps them to sign Nurse. It doesn't prevent the bonus overage but nothing other than dumping salary can do that.

Yes, Lucic and Russell hurt, especially Russell. He is Mark Stuart bad. Those contracts are going to be extremely hard to move. Lucic has an NMC. Russell's is 3 times as long as Mason's and the same size. Look what moving that cost us!

If they give us Russell and Larsson for Myers they get some cap relief. We get a pretty good RHD fix. And we now have their cap problem.

I would do that though and find a buyer for Perreault. Bury Russell in the AHL until we can manage to dump him somehow. Maybe a buyout, at worst we have to live with the 3 mil we can't bury. Would be worth it. Add 4.166 + 4 - 1 (burying Russell), subtract 5.5, net increase of 1.66 for us. Subtract MP's 4.125 = 2.46 more cap space for us.

More realistically though, I think RNH has to go. Next year they have a bunch of RFA's to sign. He is just a luxury they can't afford.

I wonder what Chevy had planned if Stastny had accepted his offer? Where was he going to find the cap space? Whatever it was, I'd rather do it for RNH than for Stastny but what would we have to give Oil?

 

[Whileee]

Agree - But if they don't dump salary, or don't dump enough, the LTIR still helps them to sign Nurse. It doesn't prevent the bonus overage but nothing other than dumping salary can do that.

Yes, Lucic and Russell hurt, especially Russell. He is Mark Stuart bad. Those contracts are going to be extremely hard to move. Lucic has an NMC. Russell's is 3 times as long as Mason's and the same size. Look what moving that cost us!

If they give us Russell and Larsson for Myers they get some cap relief. We get a pretty good RHD fix. And we now have their cap problem.

I would do that though and find a buyer for Perreault. Bury Russell in the AHL until we can manage to dump him somehow. Maybe a buyout, at worst we have to live with the 3 mil we can't bury. Would be worth it. Add 4.166 + 4 - 1 (burying Russell), subtract 5.5, net increase of 1.66 for us. Subtract MP's 4.125 = 2.46 more cap space for us.

More realistically though, I think RNH has to go. Next year they have a bunch of RFA's to sign. He is just a luxury they can't afford.

I wonder what Chevy had planned if Stastny had accepted his offer? Where was he going to find the cap space? Whatever it was, I'd rather do it for RNH than for Stastny but what would we have to give Oil?

If the Jets want to sign Trouba, Morrissey and Connor long-term by next season, they need to move out salaries for Kulikov, Perreault and Myers and replace them with ELC type contracts. They absolutely can't add another 2-3M in cap.

 

[Daximus]

Agree - But if they don't dump salary, or don't dump enough, the LTIR still helps them to sign Nurse. It doesn't prevent the bonus overage but nothing other than dumping salary can do that.

Yes, Lucic and Russell hurt, especially Russell. He is Mark Stuart bad. Those contracts are going to be extremely hard to move. Lucic has an NMC. Russell's is 3 times as long as Mason's and the same size. Look what moving that cost us!

If they give us Russell and Larsson for Myers they get some cap relief. We get a pretty good RHD fix. And we now have their cap problem.

I would do that though and find a buyer for Perreault. Bury Russell in the AHL until we can manage to dump him somehow. Maybe a buyout, at worst we have to live with the 3 mil we can't bury. Would be worth it. Add 4.166 + 4 - 1 (burying Russell), subtract 5.5, net increase of 1.66 for us. Subtract MP's 4.125 = 2.46 more cap space for us.

More realistically though, I think RNH has to go. Next year they have a bunch of RFA's to sign. He is just a luxury they can't afford.

I wonder what Chevy had planned if Stastny had accepted his offer? Where was he going to find the cap space? Whatever it was, I'd rather do it for RNH than for Stastny but what would we have to give Oil?

The sad thing for them is RNH finally found his role playing on McDavids wing at the end of the season and McDavid finally found someone who can keep up with him somewhat. Losing RNH now would be a huge blow.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

It's not the Draisaitl contract that causes problems.

On the other hand, say hello to Kris Russell and Milan Lucic, who are making 2 million more than Dr. Drai for god knows what reason.

The Oilers are yet another reason why you, a hockey fan who reads this, should recognise that it is the middle range guy who puts you into cap hell and not the high-end guy. Drai gives you top line impact, whereas Lucic and Russell... bleh.

Applying this to the Jets, ditching Myers is the best course of action, (especially) if it lets us lock up Morrissey and/or Trouba.

Still, it was the Drai contract that RNH would have to go. He is getting 2-2.5 too much. But yes, without the Lucic and Russell contracts they could hang on to RNH, at least for another year, maybe longer.

Russell's contract had come first and was just a WTF! moment.

 

[garret9]

I feel like the fact that Matt Hendricks has played over 600 nhl games would qualify him as an NHL player.

sure and John Scott is a nhl all star player too

 

[garret9]

Did you not see what happened to the Oilers when they got rid of Hendricks?

Did you not see how bad they were every other year before that with him?
You really think their save percentage collapse was because they let a plug who is a nice guy go??

 

[Imcanadianeh]

sure and John Scott is a nhl all star player too

Quit trying to sell John Scott short, he is an NHL all star MVP.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

If the Jets want to sign Trouba, Morrissey and Connor long-term by next season, they need to move out salaries for Kulikov, Perreault and Myers and replace them with ELC type contracts. They absolutely can't add another 2-3M in cap.

Bridges is the solution.

I don't know whether to project Trouba gone in 1, gone in 2 or finally here long term. Makes these kinds of things difficult. But bridging Morrissey, then Connor, followed by Rosie and Niku retains some flexibility.

If we don't add any new cap hit Perreault needs to be traded. Myers can be allowed to walk. So can Kulikov. Kuli only has 2 years left. We can handle that. But if he can be moved after this season without having to pay someone to take on his contract, then sure go ahead. Salary retention might be all it takes.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The sad thing for them is RNH finally found his role playing on McDavids wing at the end of the season and McDavid finally found someone who can keep up with him somewhat. Losing RNH now would be a huge blow.

Yup. I wonder if they might have done better trading him a year ago, or at the TD.

I have an unproven, untested theory that making necessary trades earlier is generally better. You get the return into your system and developing sooner. You are in a less obviously desperate situation, so are less vulnerable to the vultures.

Of course, the Duchene trade says otherwise but I think that one was the outlier. Ottawa is making a spectacle of themselves losing trades.

 

[Daximus]

Yup. I wonder if they might have done better trading him a year ago, or at the TD.

I have an unproven, untested theory that making necessary trades earlier is generally better. You get the return into your system and developing sooner. You are in a less obviously desperate situation, so are less vulnerable to the vultures.

Of course, the Duchene trade says otherwise but I think that one was the outlier. Ottawa is making a spectacle of themselves losing trades.

I think Tampa made out well with Drouin too. But they waited to take advantage of someone else (Bergevin) rather then be taken advantage off. Sakic did the same to Dorion.

If we wait it out we may potentially find ourselves someone desperate but with teams like the Sens and Habs entering full rebuilds now. That seems unlikely. Plus we might be limited to just American markets out east for Trouba to resign to if we want to maximize return rather then deal him as a rental.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think Tampa made out well with Drouin too. But they waited to take advantage of someone else (Bergevin) rather then be taken advantage off. Sakic did the same to Dorion.

If we wait it out we may potentially find ourselves someone desperate but with teams like the Sens and Habs entering full rebuilds now. That seems unlikely. Plus we might be limited to just American markets out east for Trouba to resign to if we want to maximize return rather then deal him as a rental.

The limiting of landing sites is likely going to hurt us. So will excessive $$$ demands if the speculation is correct and he sticks to the big numbers.

I do wish it had been done a year or two ago though. Of course that would have affected last year's success - but then we get into not knowing what else might have happened. So, who knows?

 

[Daximus]

The limiting of landing sites is likely going to hurt us. So will excessive $$$ demands if the speculation is correct and he sticks to the big numbers.

I do wish it had been done a year or two ago though. Of course that would have affected last year's success - but then we get into not knowing what else might have happened. So, who knows?

Yeah the hindsight is a dangerous path. Much like it was with Kane. But we maximized our return there because of a desperate GM. Who knows what the other offers for Kane looked like.

I'm just scared teams like Tampa, Detroit, Chicago, NY or Florida will just wait until he hits FA rather then pony up for him now. It isn't super risky for them to do so. Trouba would be entertaining a lot of offers if he hits the open market and could assuredly land himself in a place he wants to be.

 

[Weezeric]

Yeah the hindsight is a dangerous path. Much like it was with Kane. But we maximized our return there because of a desperate GM. Who knows what the other offers for Kane looked like.

I'm just scared teams like Tampa, Detroit, Chicago, NY or Florida will just wait until he hits FA rather then pony up for him now. It isn't super risky for them to do so. Trouba would be entertaining a lot of offers if he hits the open market and could assuredly land himself in a place he wants to be.

How would it not be risky (and more expensive)? You just named 5 teams who would be after him. If they trade for him and extend him it takes away all the competition.

 

[Daximus]

How would it not be risky (and more expensive)? You just named 5 teams who would be after him. If they trade for him and extend him it takes away all the competition.

True but it's all about Trouba. Any team that is in talks with us will want to talk to Trouba about an extension. And if we want to maximize return we would let them. At that point he has his pick of the litter. Say the Rangers put up a big offer for them but he tells them he only wants to sign with Detroit long term. Well then they likely lessen their offer as he is potentially only a rental now which doesn't bode well for a team that is still building. Say Detroit talks to him and he says hell yeah you guys are the spot i want to be in. Well they may just say screw it we will wait until he hits FA. It's a gamble for sure but they lose zero assets.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Yeah the hindsight is a dangerous path. Much like it was with Kane. But we maximized our return there because of a desperate GM. Who knows what the other offers for Kane looked like.

I'm just scared teams like Tampa, Detroit, Chicago, NY or Florida will just wait until he hits FA rather then pony up for him now. It isn't super risky for them to do so. Trouba would be entertaining a lot of offers if he hits the open market and could assuredly land himself in a place he wants to be.

There is always the chance that we find a desperate team, but I'm afraid we will be desperate ourselves. The sharks (not SJS) can small blood in the water.

So far, my predicted most likely landing spots are being eliminated one-by-one. TBL have got themselves in deep cap hell. Fla doesn't need another 1st pair, 7.5 mil RHD. SJS just got Karlsson. If he walks they might be back in the race, but how often has Wilson lost a trade? Dallas just spent a bundle on Seguin but they will recover some cap next year. Nill has been a good trader but it isn't working out for him. They are going to compete with Chi for last in the Div, IMO. Nill may well be gone. Will his replacement want to start off with a big trade? Nill like? Unlikely, I think. My guess is that leaves the NY area teams & Philly. Don't know if any others would be on Trouba's acceptable list. Oh, forgot DRW.