Roster turnover

[ArmChairGM89]

In

The only way you win consistently in the NHL with mediocre goalies is if you have a roster like Pittsburgh or Tampa. The more mid tier challengers need someone good in net if they want to win, unless you get the odd lucky year where both teams goalies in the Finals are bad. I am not saying pay 10 mil or even 8 mil on one goalie, but 4-7 for sure.

In the last 10 years the only goalies I would consider elite when they won the cup are holtby and quick. Everyone else was above average to good.

 

[Retire91]

I really would like to see the wings have a dynamyte goalie, we have just never had a marquee goalie since I have been watching it would be a real treat to have someone like Luongo in there that is lights out almost every season. I know the less risky thing to do is build the team in front and hope you can find a cheap guy that catches fire.

I really hoped Mrazek was going to be more than he was but he ended up not developing like we hoped Still waiting for our elite goalie.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

I don’t pay goalies. But that’s just me. You build your roster right and a decent goalie wins. Makes it a lot easier when you don’t have 6+ wrapped up in the goalie.

I agree, $4.9M/3yrs is my max comfort zone for G's. If it's prime Hasek 2.0 obviously that changes the equation, but the nature of the position is too volatile. Would rather have a 1A/1B anyway.

 

[Bench]

In

In the last 10 years the only goalies I would consider elite when they won the cup are holtby and quick. Everyone else was above average to good.

How quickly we forget Tim Thomas dominated the playoffs. He won the Conn Smythe and everything.

So the last 10 years is tough because it's been nothing but Blackhawks, Penguins, and Kings. But even if we use your two goalies plus Thomas, that's 4 Cups in the last decade.

And as good as St. Louis is, they needed a goalie to step up to turn around their entire season and give them any hope of winning. Binnington wasn't just "good" he went on a historic rookie run.

And this is just counting Cup winners. There's plenty of elite goalie talent that carried their team deep into the playoffs. Lundqvist didn't win a Cup but he absolutely dragged that roster deeper than they deserved several times and almost got it done in 2014.

I think that's worth the difference between paying a guy like Darren Helm to secure your bottom lines and taking on a pretty good goalie versus an elite one.

 

[ArmChairGM89]

And as good as St. Louis is, they needed a goalie to step up to turn around their entire season and give them any hope of winning. Binnington wasn't just "good" he went on a historic rookie.

This is exactly what I’m talking about. Most teams that go deep in the playoffs have a decent goalie that gets hot. Not some 7-10 mil superstar. I don’t want my team to be built in a way that requires a goalie to drag them into the third round. That is far less sustainable.

 

[Bench]

This is exactly what I’m talking about. Most teams that go deep in the playoffs have a decent goalie that gets hot. Not some 7-10 mil superstar. I don’t want my team to be built in a way that requires a goalie to drag them into the third round. That is far less sustainable.

I think you'll find there's basically a 1 to 1 correlation between "decent goalies that get hot" in the playoffs and those that become "7-10 mil superstars."

 

[Voodoo Glow Skulls]

I would 100% send Nielsen to GR and/or find a way to terminate his contract

Helm and Glenny stay as trade deadline 2021 chips

Sign a few cheap UFA's to flip at the deadline. Stay at home responsible dmen if you can and a center like Staal and that's it

Hopefully we draft 1st and get Laf

Dekeyser, Lindstrom and Zadina will be here fulltime

Leave Valeno and Seider in GR for another year

Go hard after Lehner in free agency

Let all UFAs walk

Laf-larkin-mantha
Bert-staal-zadina
Svech-gagner/filp-fabbri
Smith-glenny-helm

Dekeyser-hronek
Hamonic/vatanen-lindstrom
Nemeth-cholo

Lehner
Bernier

New Coach

Rather see Lafreniere on the 2nd line. Better match-ups.

 

[ArmChairGM89]

I think you'll find there's basically a 1 to 1 correlation between "decent goalies that get hot" in the playoffs and those that become "7-10 mil superstars."

And that’s when you let them walk. Just the way i would do it.

 

[Bench]

And that’s when you let them walk. Just the way i would do it.

I don't think people realize the difference in cap hit between Rask and Howard is only $3 million.

So sure, let Rask walk. And then you can have Howard and Bernier as a tandem for the same price.

 

[ArmChairGM89]

I don't think people realize the difference in cap hit between Rask and Howard is only $3 million.

So sure, let Rask walk. And then you can have Howard and Bernier as a tandem for the same price.

I wouldn’t have paid Howard.

 

[ArmChairGM89]

T

I don't think people realize the difference in cap hit between Rask and Howard is only $3 million.

So sure, let Rask walk. And then you can have Howard and Bernier as a tandem for the same price.

that 3 mill difference gets you a larkin over a helm

 

[Bench]

that 3 mill difference gets you a larkin over a helm

Sure... kinda. Larkin's contract was cheaper because it brought him to UFA sooner.

 

[ArmChairGM89]

Sure... kinda. Larkin's contract was cheaper because it brought him to UFA sooner.

It was a random example. I could pull 10 more lol I don’t even know why we’re still arguing about this. We’d build teams differently. I’d put more focus on the forwards and defense and ice an average cheap goalie. You’d get a superstar goalie and have a weakness at forward or defense. We both surely can come up with numerous examples of our way working. More than one way to do things.

 

[Bench]

It was a random example. I could pull 10 more lol I don’t even know why we’re still arguing about this. We’d build teams differently. I’d put more focus on the forwards and defense and ice an average cheap goalie. You’d get a superstar goalie and have a weakness at forward or defense. We both surely can come up with numerous examples of our way working. More than one way to do things.

I think you're paying, at minimum, $5 million for even an average goalie. That's just straight average. Unless it's a reclamation project that could blow up in your face or RFA deal, you're not getting anyone above average. At that point, I go ahead and slip into the 8-10 territory for an actually great one. You really don't get a lot of bang for your buck with $3-4 million extra on the open market. You're talking the difference between having a Nick Bonino or not. You can still spent on your high end chips, but you have to fill your depth lines with cheaper deals.

You're trying to bargain hunt at goalie. I get it, lots of people try that move. Most fail. I'd rather bargain hunt my 5-6 defender and my bottom lines. My goalie is playing 50-60 games and all my playoff games. My #3 PK option, I mean, sure... I'd like a better guy, but I'll sacrifice there.

 

[ArmChairGM89]

I think you're paying, at minimum, $5 million for even an average goalie. That's just straight average. Unless it's a reclamation project that could blow up in your face or RFA deal, you're not getting anyone above average. At that point, I go ahead and slip into the 8-10 territory for an actually great one. You really don't get a lot of bang for your buck with $3-4 million extra on the open market. You're talking the difference between having a Nick Bonino or not. You can still spent on your high end chips, but you have to fill your depth lines with cheaper deals.

You're trying to bargain hunt at goalie. I get it, lots of people try that move. Most fail. I'd rather bargain hunt my 5-6 defender and my bottom lines. My goalie is playing 50-60 games and all my playoff games. My #3 PK option, I mean, sure... I'd like a better guy, but I'll sacrifice there.

Only five goalies in the league make more than 6.1 mill I don’t need to pay more than 4-5 for a good goalie

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Only five goalies in the league make more than 6.1 mill I don’t need to pay more than 4-5 for a good goalie

I'd love to have a Bernier/Halak combo for $4.9M total. If Bernier wasn't over paid by ~$500k that would be doable. I'd take Talbot for 1 yr/$1.5. Lehner & Markstrom will be more but I'd inquire about them.

 

[Bench]

Only five goalies in the league make more than 6.1 mill I don’t need to pay more than 4-5 for a good goalie

6.1 is a fun number because if it's 6 then it becomes 10. That's 1/3 of the starting goalies in the league.

And many of those deals were signed years ago under a lower cap. They will only keep creeping up, as we saw with the Bob contract. That's going to push up the middle too.

Make no mistake, Vasilevski is going to get paid. Lehner will get more. Binnington. And so on. That number above six million will soon be 15 goalies and they are going to represent nearly every single one consistently above average to great.

You can keep trying to cycle in guys on bargain deals but most of the stable teams pay up once they have a good thing going. Pittsburgh did. Chicago did eventually, even after they were the model for ditching goalies. LA. Washington. Boston.

Not saying you don't shed them when it's time, but all these consistently great teams ended up paying for their goalies.

 

[Winger98]

Just from eyeballing contracts, it seems goalies are given somewhere between 6-8% of the cap when they are expected to be good, every day starters. so, with an $83m cap you're basically looking at somewhere between $5-6.6m for a starting goalie. Go above that and you should be expecting something significantly better than just a good starting goalie, go below it and you're bargain hunting or grabbing a backup.

If we're grabbing someone out of free agency, I'm not sure I'd ever move much above that range. By the time these guys hit UFA they are older and it's a position that seems to have quite a bit of year-to-year variability. If' the Wings are throwing $7m+ at a guy, I'd rather it be a skater where even if their games erode they will likely still carry some value as they are moved down the lineup. A goalie implodes, and it's just a sunk cost.

 

[ArmChairGM89]

I'd love to have a Bernier/Halak combo for $4.9M total. If Bernier wasn't over paid by ~$500k that would be doable. I'd take Talbot for 1 yr/$1.5. Lehner & Markstrom will be more but I'd inquire about them.

I’d be interested in talbot

 

[ArmChairGM89]

6.1 is a fun number because if it's 6 then it becomes 10. That's 1/3 of the starting goalies in the league.

And many of those deals were signed years ago under a lower cap. They will only keep creeping up, as we saw with the Bob contract. That's going to push up the middle too.

Make no mistake, Vasilevski is going to get paid. Lehner will get more. Binnington. And so on. That number above six million will soon be 15 goalies and they are going to represent nearly every single one consistently above average to great.

You can keep trying to cycle in guys on bargain deals but most of the stable teams pay up once they have a good thing going. Pittsburgh did. Chicago did eventually, even after they were the model for ditching goalies. LA. Washington. Boston.

Not saying you don't shed them when it's time, but all these consistently great teams ended up paying for their goalies.

Yeah the average salary will go up and so will the salary cap, thus what I’m willing to pay. I started at the top and went down to the first reasonable number which was 6.1 only had to skip five guys to get there.

 

[Oddbob]

I’d be interested in talbot

Talbot isn't even as good as Howard when Howard was good, so adding him really provides nothing other than a below average starter or average backup.

 

[Gniwder]

Talbot isn't even as good as Howard when Howard was good, so adding him really provides nothing other than a below average starter or average backup.

We should sign Scott Foster, that accountant that played one game for the Hawks. He's better than anything in our pipeline.

 

[Henkka]

I agree, $4.9M/3yrs is my max comfort zone for G's. If it's prime Hasek 2.0 obviously that changes the equation, but the nature of the position is too volatile. Would rather have a 1A/1B anyway.

This is the way to go.

Holland already built same for the Oilers and they are rolling.

 

[ArmChairGM89]

Talbot isn't even as good as Howard when Howard was good, so adding him really provides nothing other than a below average starter or average backup.

I’m not looking for the goalie of the future here. Talbot and Bernier will keep us from setting records next year lol that’s all I want.

 

[TheOctopusKid]

Goaltending is a lot like Running Backs in the NFL for me in terms of value. If you land a great one - an elite talent at the position - you can build an entire team around them and they can make you an immediate playoff contender because of the oversized impact of the position. However, short of that, the difference between a "good" one and a "adequate" starter is so nuanced and contingent on so many other factors; it's not worth the increase in price for me.

There's a whole group of "good" to "adequate" and the difference between them varies from situation and season to season. And then you have flat out "should not be a starter" which is where Howard is for me at this point.

Can I say that Varlomov@ .917 S% and 2.55GAA @$5-6M is worth $2.5M more to me than slightly less numbers in a guy like Talbot or Mike Smith of EDM? Meh. I don't think any of them are so great that they can take over a game.

You need a goalie who can at least do the basics and keep you in a game - which should be cheap. There's not reason to dump significant cap into the position.