Roster turnover

ShelbyZ

Registered User
Apr 8, 2015
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Outside of ELC's, in his almost 10 years as an NHL GM, Yzerman has only given a goalie more than 2 years of term ONCE. That was Vasilevskiy's bridge deal.

I'd be really surprised if that changes anytime soon.

I'm betting Yzerman goes back to his approach in his first couple offseasons with the Lightning when he was signing guys like Mathieu Garon and Dan Ellis to two year stop gap deals at #1B prices while he waits for the team to develop a goalie (Vasilevskiy) or gets an upside option in an affordable trade once the team is closer to competing (Roloson) and/or has the expendable assets to do so (Bishop).

I also don't see Yzerman getting into any rounds of "backup goalie that might be a starter roulette" via trade since it didn't work out so hot for him when he traded for Anders Lindback.
 

Gniwder

Registered User
Oct 12, 2009
14,124
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Bellingham, WA
I’m not looking for the goalie of the future here. Talbot and Bernier will keep us from setting records next year lol that’s all I want.
Talbot might be at the same level as Howard was when he was good, but my grandmother would be an upgrade over Howard right now, and she's been dead for 3 decades.

Basically anything is an upgrade over current Howard, so I'd take Talbot, or Halak, or anyone else willing to sign a short term deal. My preference would be to overpay for one year deals. Aging goalies tend to fall off a cliff, wouldn't want to be saddled with Howard-like performances for more than a season.

An upgrade over Howie makes the team better next season, so we can compete for that #6 pick again.
 

ArmChairGM89

Registered User
Dec 10, 2019
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Talbot might be at the same level as Howard was when he was good, but my grandmother would be an upgrade over Howard right now, and she's been dead for 3 decades.

Basically anything is an upgrade over current Howard, so I'd take Talbot, or Halak, or anyone else willing to sign a short term deal. My preference would be to overpay for one year deals. Aging goalies tend to fall off a cliff, wouldn't want to be saddled with Howard-like performances for more than a season.

An upgrade over Howie makes the team better next season, so we can compete for that #6 pick again.
From my brain, through your thumb.


Or fingers, depending on your tech.
 

Retire91

Stevey Y you our Guy
May 31, 2010
6,135
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Goaltending is a lot like Running Backs in the NFL for me in terms of value. If you land a great one - an elite talent at the position - you can build an entire team around them and they can make you an immediate playoff contender because of the oversized impact of the position. However, short of that, the difference between a "good" one and a "adequate" starter is so nuanced and contingent on so many other factors; it's not worth the increase in price for me.

There's a whole group of "good" to "adequate" and the difference between them varies from situation and season to season. And then you have flat out "should not be a starter" which is where Howard is for me at this point.

Can I say that Varlomov@ .917 S% and 2.55GAA @$5-6M is worth $2.5M more to me than slightly less numbers in a guy like Talbot or Mike Smith of EDM? Meh. I don't think any of them are so great that they can take over a game.

You need a goalie who can at least do the basics and keep you in a game - which should be cheap. There's not reason to dump significant cap into the position.

Pretty much how I feel too, if you see someone like prime Rask, Rinne, Price coming up in your ranks take a shot and lock them in but outside of those 6 or 7 goalies that are truly elite I think just having a revolving door until someone is happy with 4-5 mill or you just keep changing out and hope someone gets hot works. I think you do need some elite D and two way play to make that work though. For once I would truly love to see a team built from the net out. It would be so great to watch games where someone is just a brick wall in net and I would be comfortable opening the pocket book on the right person. It's a shame we gave up that shot for Kyle Quincey but at least we got the guy that was on the right side of that deal.
 

odin1981

There can be only 1!
Mar 8, 2013
5,031
881
Canton Mi
Well if LA gets 8 points, and Ottawa gets 6 we clinch last. We have 2 gih on them as well. Most we can get by winning out is 63.
 

The Flying Octopus

Registered User
Sep 18, 2017
1,303
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Birmingham
I am starting to get very worried Ottawa is getting Alex. They have better odds at 21.2% over Detroits 17.9%. Ottawa holds the key with SJ. SJ needs to win to reduce Ottawas odds. Lets not talk about roster turnover until we know what we are getting, as this draft truly is a make or break type draft for Detroit. Get Alex, it sets them up for years. Ottawa gets him, I am afraid we may never get that true #1 player all other tanking teams seem to get. Given Bettman has his hand in the cookie jar, his hate for the Red Wings, yet turmoil with Ottawa owner, does he just give Alex to LA. Be afraid people.
 
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Gniwder

Registered User
Oct 12, 2009
14,124
7,485
Bellingham, WA
I am starting to get very worried Ottawa is getting Alex. They have better odds at 21.2% over Detroits 17.9%. Ottawa holds the key with SJ. SJ needs to win to reduce Ottawas odds. Lets not talk about roster turnover until we know what we are getting, as this draft truly is a make or break type draft for Detroit. Get Alex, it sets them up for years. Ottawa gets him, I am afraid we may never get that true #1 player all other tanking teams seem to get. Given Bettman has his hand in the cookie jar, his hate for the Red Wings, yet turmoil with Ottawa owner, does he just give Alex to LA. Be afraid people.
Why worry about things you can;t control?

The WIngs will wind up with an elite winger or really good center. Also, there's Luke Hughes next year...
 
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SimonEdvinssonAtSix

It's possible to commit no mistakes and still lose
Nov 2, 2018
1,402
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I am starting to get very worried Ottawa is getting Alex. They have better odds at 21.2% over Detroits 17.9%. Ottawa holds the key with SJ. SJ needs to win to reduce Ottawas odds. Lets not talk about roster turnover until we know what we are getting, as this draft truly is a make or break type draft for Detroit. Get Alex, it sets them up for years. Ottawa gets him, I am afraid we may never get that true #1 player all other tanking teams seem to get. Given Bettman has his hand in the cookie jar, his hate for the Red Wings, yet turmoil with Ottawa owner, does he just give Alex to LA. Be afraid people.

Where did the 17.9% odds come from? Are the odds for last place getting 1stOA not 18.5% ?

Also, we are in a lotto system built to punish tanking, why are people so surprised that it's a longshot for us to get 1stOA.

Ottawa has better odds because they have more lottery picks, that should not upset anyone or come as a shock.
If we had another lotto pick we'd have better odds too.

But odds favor us picking at 4th. Everyone needs to get off the 1st OA hype train or this form is going to be a gong show all summer long.

We are picking 4th, ANYTHING higher is just a cherry on top.
 
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14ari13

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Oct 19, 2006
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Norway
Goaltending is a lot like Running Backs in the NFL for me in terms of value. If you land a great one - an elite talent at the position - you can build an entire team around them and they can make you an immediate playoff contender because of the oversized impact of the position. However, short of that, the difference between a "good" one and a "adequate" starter is so nuanced and contingent on so many other factors; it's not worth the increase in price for me.

There's a whole group of "good" to "adequate" and the difference between them varies from situation and season to season. And then you have flat out "should not be a starter" which is where Howard is for me at this point.

Can I say that Varlomov@ .917 S% and 2.55GAA @$5-6M is worth $2.5M more to me than slightly less numbers in a guy like Talbot or Mike Smith of EDM? Meh. I don't think any of them are so great that they can take over a game.

You need a goalie who can at least do the basics and keep you in a game - which should be cheap. There's not reason to dump significant cap into the position.

A great goalie can steal you a game here and there, but can't win games on his own. While a bad goalie can definitely lose games.
Funny thing Osgood was considered a bad goalie and people used to say the wings won games despite Osgood, and then Osgood (maybe babcocks fault) fell short one game of becoming a great goalie. (We should and deserved to win the game/series and the cup).

Talbot might be at the same level as Howard was when he was good, but my grandmother would be an upgrade over Howard right now, and she's been dead for 3 decades.

Basically anything is an upgrade over current Howard, so I'd take Talbot, or Halak, or anyone else willing to sign a short term deal. My preference would be to overpay for one year deals. Aging goalies tend to fall off a cliff, wouldn't want to be saddled with Howard-like performances for more than a season.

An upgrade over Howie makes the team better next season, so we can compete for that #6 pick again.

One year deal is the best solution for the wings next season IMO.
 

TCNorthstars

Registered User
Jan 5, 2009
4,281
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Lansing area, MI
I am starting to get very worried Ottawa is getting Alex. They have better odds at 21.2% over Detroits 17.9%. Ottawa holds the key with SJ. SJ needs to win to reduce Ottawas odds. Lets not talk about roster turnover until we know what we are getting, as this draft truly is a make or break type draft for Detroit. Get Alex, it sets them up for years. Ottawa gets him, I am afraid we may never get that true #1 player all other tanking teams seem to get. Given Bettman has his hand in the cookie jar, his hate for the Red Wings, yet turmoil with Ottawa owner, does he just give Alex to LA. Be afraid people.

Get out of here with this lottery rigged nonsense.
 
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Mister Ed

Registered User
Dec 21, 2008
5,254
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Would Tyson Barrie be of interest this summer? UFA right handed D, turns 29 at the end of July. He is going to be expensive though, at around 7.5M AAV.

Having Hronek, Seider and Barrie as RHD would be pretty great. Lindstrom/Bowey/Biega would the 7th D.

Nemeth - Hronek
Dekeyser - Barrie
Cholowsky or UFA - Seider
 

Hammettf2b

oldmanyellsatcloud.jpg
Jul 9, 2012
22,489
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So California
Would Tyson Barrie be of interest this summer? UFA right handed D, turns 29 at the end of July. He is going to be expensive though, at around 7.5M AAV.

Having Hronek, Seider and Barrie as RHD would be pretty great. Lindstrom/Bowey/Biega would the 7th D.

Nemeth - Hronek
Dekeyser - Barrie
Cholowsky or UFA - Seider
That's a huge pass for me. We already have Hronek and Seider for the future on the right side. No need to pay big money for someone like Barrie.
 

2xJack

Registered User
Apr 19, 2019
203
117
Where did the 17.9% odds come from? Are the odds for last place getting 1stOA not 18.5% ?

Also, we are in a lotto system built to punish tanking, why are people so surprised that it's a longshot for us to get 1stOA.

Ottawa has better odds because they have more lottery picks, that should not upset anyone or come as a shock.
If we had another lotto pick we'd have better odds too.

But odds favor us picking at 4th. Everyone needs to get off the 1st OA hype train or this form is going to be a gong show all summer long.

We are picking 4th, ANYTHING higher is just a cherry on top.

The odds are not that bad for us. Yes, if you look at the breakdown then we're most likely to pick 4th overall. However, at 50.6% it is only slightly higher than the odds are that we'll be picking in the top 3. It is a coin flip, more or less.

Our luck in the lottery has been absolutely horrible so far, but that does not mean it will continue. We'll see. I remain hopeful that we'll be picking somewhere in the top 3 rather than in 4th. At some point, one of our balls has to come up in the lottery. Maybe it happens this year. Maybe not. At least we've maximized our chances of getting a top 3 pick this year. That's all we could do, the rest is left to chance.
 

ArmChairGM89

Registered User
Dec 10, 2019
1,552
1,034
Where did the 17.9% odds come from? Are the odds for last place getting 1stOA not 18.5% ?

Also, we are in a lotto system built to punish tanking, why are people so surprised that it's a longshot for us to get 1stOA.

Ottawa has better odds because they have more lottery picks, that should not upset anyone or come as a shock.
If we had another lotto pick we'd have better odds too.

But odds favor us picking at 4th. Everyone needs to get off the 1st OA hype train or this form is going to be a gong show all summer long.

We are picking 4th, ANYTHING higher is just a cherry on top.
Nearly identical odds of picking top 3 as we have for picking 4th. Pretty much 50/50
 

Retire91

Stevey Y you our Guy
May 31, 2010
6,135
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Our luck in the lottery has not been good but another impact of Holland going for it was our rebuild years delayed to post expansion and some years we got pushed back a spot due to expansion teams. that would not have happened if Holland started the rebuild when it was necessary.

I don't really understand the current lottery odds but how would a team get better odds than the last place team? Shouldn't we have the best odds at first?
 
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Hammettf2b

oldmanyellsatcloud.jpg
Jul 9, 2012
22,489
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So California
Our luck in the lottery has not be good but another impact of Holland going for it was our rebuild years delayed to post expansion and some years we got pushed back a spot due to expansion teams. that would not have happened if Holland started the rebuild when it was necessary.

I don't really understand the current lottery odds but how would a team get better odds than the last place team?
They don't?
 

Retire91

Stevey Y you our Guy
May 31, 2010
6,135
1,563
Oh I see someone is saying Ottawa has better odds because they have additional lottery picks? I just wasn't following.
 

2xJack

Registered User
Apr 19, 2019
203
117
Oh I see someone is saying Ottawa has better odds because they have additional lottery picks? I just wasn't following.

Correct. Ottawa has their first and SJ's first, both of which are lottery picks. Between the two they will likely have a higher chance at first overall than we do. It depends on where SJ finishes in the standings.
 

Retire91

Stevey Y you our Guy
May 31, 2010
6,135
1,563
Correct. Ottawa has their first and SJ's first, both of which are lottery picks. Between the two they will likely have a higher chance at first overall than we do. It depends on where SJ finishes in the standings.

Holy cow their draft should be amazing this year. I am betting San Jose wishes they worded their lottery protection a little better in that Karlsson trade lol
 

SimonEdvinssonAtSix

It's possible to commit no mistakes and still lose
Nov 2, 2018
1,402
1,877
The odds are not that bad for us. Yes, if you look at the breakdown then we're most likely to pick 4th overall. However, at 50.6% it is only slightly higher than the odds are that we'll be picking in the top 3. It is a coin flip, more or less.

Our luck in the lottery has been absolutely horrible so far, but that does not mean it will continue. We'll see. I remain hopeful that we'll be picking somewhere in the top 3 rather than in 4th. At some point, one of our balls has to come up in the lottery. Maybe it happens this year. Maybe not. At least we've maximized our chances of getting a top 3 pick this year. That's all we could do, the rest is left to chance.

I agree with what you're saying except the semantics. I see our position as 4th. It's the highest probable odds @ 50.6%.
In order to move up from 4th I again agree that we will need luck. Where I disagree is the assumption that one of our balls will have to come up sooner or later. We could finish last for the next 10 years and pick 4th for 10 years in a row.
Past years bad luck of dropping down has no statistical leverage over what happens this year. Statistically we are more likely to pick 4thOA than in the top 3. The margin is slight but not in favor of top 3.

By assuming we are picking 4th I've set myself up for a 0% chance of disappointment. I think we should all hedge our bets and only get excited if given a concrete reason on lotto day.
 

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