Roster turnover

[SimonEdvinssonAtSix]

Our luck in the lottery has not been good but another impact of Holland going for it was our rebuild years delayed to post expansion and some years we got pushed back a spot due to expansion teams. that would not have happened if Holland started the rebuild when it was necessary.

I don't really understand the current lottery odds but how would a team get better odds than the last place team? Shouldn't we have the best odds at first?

More lotto tickets. ( unprotected 1st round picks )

 

[2xJack]

I agree with what you're saying except the semantics. I see our position as 4th. It's the highest probable odds @ 50.6%.
In order to move up from 4th I again agree that we will need luck. Where I disagree is the assumption that one of our balls will have to come up sooner or later. We could finish last for the next 10 years and pick 4th for 10 years in a row.
Past years bad luck of dropping down has no statistical leverage over what happens this year. Statistically we are more likely to pick 4thOA than in the top 3. The margin is slight but not in favor of top 3.

By assuming we are picking 4th I've set myself up for a 0% chance of disappointment. I think we should all hedge our bets and only get excited if given a concrete reason on lotto day.

Flip a coin 10 times and try to get 10 heads or 10 tails. It is very, very unlikely. Yes, I know that the results of one flip do not influence the next, but the reality is the more flips of the coin the more the results move toward the mean. In other words, if we finish dead last in the NHL 10 years in a row the math says we'd be picking 4th about 5 times and the other 5 picks would be in the top 3. We'd get first overall either once or twice in that 10 year span, on average.

 

[vladdy16]

I don't understand the fascination with the lottery.

If we sat down to play a board game, would you be rooting for the chance that you are sitting in the perfect spot for the dealer to give you one extra card than the rest of the group?

If you're going to take pride in your victories, I don't see the reason to be compelled to root for/rely on luck.

 

[SimonEdvinssonAtSix]

Flip a coin 10 times and try to get 10 heads or 10 tails. It is very, very unlikely. Yes, I know that the results of one flip do not influence the next, but the reality is the more flips of the coin the more the results move toward the mean. In other words, if we finish dead last in the NHL 10 years in a row the math says we'd be picking 4th about 5 times and the other 5 picks would be in the top 3. We'd get first overall either once or twice in that 10 year span, on average.

Again I don't disagree, but you can not deny that the odds this year say we will pick 4th.
I said it before, I agree with what you're saying and we seem to be debating semantics.

 

[Titan6lie]

The focus this off season should be free agent forwards to give us some scoring depth. The recent drafted forwards in our system do not appear to be impact players at the nhl level now and their ceiling doesn't look too high imo. Our current lack of talent up front combined with advanced age and secure contracts has resulted in a group that is totally ineffective. When's the last time we saw filpulla, nielsen, ehn, perlini or abdelkader win a puck battle on the boards....they don't.... and this results in no forecheck pressure, no zone time and panic when they get a scoring chance because they're so shocked they have the puck on their stick. Gotta have a change here because the lack of character in the veteran group is becoming contagious. Toffoli, Hall or even Hoffman might fit the bill.

Coaching change is also needed for a fresh start. I've been a Blashill supporter but it's become clear he does't have the ability to get the most out of his players. One might argue our roster is a strong AHL level team on many nights, however, a top nhl coach, with a variety of systems to implement should be able to have even this team compete on most nights. At least 25 games this year when we're not even competing...inexcusable for the players( see veterans above) and has to fall on the coach to some extent.

I think Bernier has been pretty darn good this season. But, he's not a true shut down goalie that is capable of stealing games for his team. His career has been up and down and not sure he can sustain his strong play going forward. Khudobin or Lehner would be nice addition. Keep Bernier and we have a strong tandem.

Our defense has some major holes but not as severe as many report on this board. We've got young players in the system that have potential to be strong nhl level players, but it might take some time. Our team defense stats look really crappy this year, but tough to see good stats when forwards create no offensive zone time and goaltending gives up those deflating easy goals. There's only 5 or 6 teams in the league that would tell you they are happy with their depth on defense, so we are part of the majority. Compare the Jets defense, many nights this years it's been Sbisa, Bitteto, Beauliou, Dalmstrom, Pionk, Poolman, and their anchor Morrisey. Not sure I would trade that group for ours.....but ....they have 3 lines up front that can score, they play attacking hockey with intensity, have an experienced coach that makes changes on the fly, great chemistry in the room with veterans that set the tone, and a goaltender that steals some games and keeps them in the rest, and some dominant Michigan talent. Bubble playoff team this year but at least they're competing, and with a bunch of castoffs on defense. So I hope we don't break the bank on free agent defenseman....money could be better spent elsewhere.

 

[raymond23]

Players ready to make the jump based on watching the Griffins this year:

• Seider
• Smith
• Rasmussen
• Svechnikov (sink or swim time, unfortunately)

Players we need to get off the active roster immediately:

• Nielsen
• Abdelkader
• Daley
• Howard

The rest of the roster is up for grabs but those dudes have got to go.

 

[Retire91]

Daley and Howard is simple just don't need to re-sign them. Abby and Nielsen should be buried or scratched and not bought out.

I think Perlini and Ehn don't need to be re-signed either unless we need to maintain a hart beat on the roster.

Granger is not a terrible player but he should not be in our future plans at 30. If he is re-signed it should be 2 years maximum

Erne has not shown much skills IMO.

Boey also doesn't have a future here

Goloubef is not part of the future.

Ericsson is also gone already.

If Abby and Neilsen actually do get burried that leaves these holes

6 forwards
3 D
1 G

IMO those slots should be filed with our own sink or swim prospects, over seas signings, reclamation projects, or cap dump trades

Edit: its worth noting Franzen LITR ends this season, Green retention will drop, Weiss buyout ends, Ouellet buyout ends. I don't think we have any cap trouble filling in the slots.

 

[Lil Bert]

Please for the love of God plug someone who doesn't suck into that 2C hole.
I only ask for Smith, Rasmussen, and Seider to be plugged into the rest of the lineup.
Keep building up some picks i guess...

 

[odin1981]

Our luck in the lottery has not been good but another impact of Holland going for it was our rebuild years delayed to post expansion and some years we got pushed back a spot due to expansion teams. that would not have happened if Holland started the rebuild when it was necessary.

I don't really understand the current lottery odds but how would a team get better odds than the last place team? Shouldn't we have the best odds at first?

Ottawa has two lottery picks thus why their chances are higher than ours at #1.

 

[Retire91]

Ottawa has two lottery picks thus why their chances are higher than ours at #1.

I understand its just a lot of posts IMO weren't clear. I didn't know Ottawa had two picks. Ottawa actually has worse odds of getting the pick with each individual pick. Its just that they have 2 chances so the odds are being represented cumulatively. I thought the lottery changed again and I was like WTF. I know that is OCD but to me that is different.

 

[odin1981]

I understand its just a lot of posts IMO weren't clear. I didn't know Ottawa had two picks. Ottawa actually has worse odds of getting the pick with each individual pick. Its just that they have 2 chances so the odds are being represented cumulatively. I thought the lottery changed again and I was like WTF. I know that is OCD but to me that is different.

People that cumulatively add them up are wrong. It's been a bit for me math wise but it increases their base chance by a % but it isn't a+b=c. Each of their individual picks has a lower chance percentage wise than our pick but there is a increase it is just not exponential.

 

[Inspiration]

This is interesting from HSJ:

I anticipate Nielsen and Filppula will still play in Detroit next season, because they can still skate/take faceoffs/kill penalties, but Abdelkader will be waived and sent to Grand Rapids.

The best and worst Red Wings of the 2019-20 season: Our awards

Not that the conclusion is particularly surprising, but the choice of words is interesting - "will be waived", as opposed to the usual "may be waived" or some similar. Usually writers like to leave themselves some wiggle room when making predictions, so it's interesting that she was willing to be that definitive.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

This is interesting from HSJ:


Not that the conclusion is particularly surprising, but the choice of words is interesting - "will be waived", as opposed to the usual "may be waived" or some similar. Usually writers like to leave themselves some wiggle room when making predictions, so it's interesting that she was willing to be that definitive.

I noticed that too. Also, considering the caphit/salary/new linemates & mostly 3rd liners Fil shouldn't have been grouped in with Frans & Abby. He cooled off, but he wasn't that terrible. Frans picked up his game the last month, but I still think age/mileage/injury had a lot to do with his struggle this season.
Abby=F- x -10 squared, Frans=F, Flip=C-/D+.

 

[Henkka]

This is interesting from HSJ:


Not that the conclusion is particularly surprising, but the choice of words is interesting - "will be waived", as opposed to the usual "may be waived" or some similar. Usually writers like to leave themselves some wiggle room when making predictions, so it's interesting that she was willing to be that definitive.

That's how it should go.

- Nielsen bought out.
- Abdelkader waived (and buried). Can do his things as a Muskegon legend down there at Griffins. Earn your paycheck being the highest-paid AHL player on your home area.

 

[SimonEdvinssonAtSix]

That's how it should go.

- Nielsen bought out.
- Abdelkader waived (and buried). Can do his things as a Muskegon legend down there at Griffins. Earn your paycheck being the highest-paid AHL player on your home area.

Zero reason to buy out Nielsen. It's his 2nd to last season and we won't be pushing for anything but bottom 5.

 

[14ari13]

This is interesting from HSJ:


Not that the conclusion is particularly surprising, but the choice of words is interesting - "will be waived", as opposed to the usual "may be waived" or some similar. Usually writers like to leave themselves some wiggle room when making predictions, so it's interesting that she was willing to be that definitive.

He was brutal. Some games he made 10 out of 10 bad decisions. When he had a game with 8 out of 10 bad decisions it was a good game for him. Doesn't Bernier have as many points as Abdelkader?

I feel sorry for him, it is painful, but man this was such a brutal season.

 

[Ulysses31]

Perlini

is he not worth another look?

 

[Snuggs]

Buyout Abdelkader

Fire Blashill; Hire Gerard Gallant

- Sign a starting goalie
- Sign a 2nd line C
- Sign a top 4 LHD

Roster: 20 - 21
(A)Tyler Bertuzzi – (C)Dylan Larkin – Anthony Mantha
Alexis Lafreniere – Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – Filip Zadina
Michael Rasmussen – Valtteri Filppula – Robbie Fabbri
Darren Helm – (A)Luke Glendenning – Dymtro Timashov

* Frans Nielson, C.
* Givani Smith, LW/RW

Danny DeKeyser – Filip Hronek
Erik Gustafsson – Moritz Seider
Patrik Nemeth – Gustav Lindstrom

* Alex Biega LHD

Jacob Markstrom
Jonathan Bernier


This is my ideal offseason. You can replace the names of the green players with different names but essentially I want those positions addressed and the guys in pink brought up full time. Eveyrone underlined is a resignings and are RFA's not UFA's.

Just think addressing these positions in FA ( G, 2nd line C, and a top 4 LHD) will help the younger players develop a lot quicker/better than just playing along side 3rd and 4th line players.

* I'd keep Frans Nielson vs buyout because his actually salary is low though is cap hit is high... There is a shot... small shot, that Seattle selects him to hit the cap floor while paying a low salary. He'd be a 1 year thing and give Seattle big cap relief the following season after digesting there roster for a year. If I'm Seattle that's what I use Nielson for... or else I'm eyeing Cholowski/DeKeyser. I think Lindstrom might have earned a spot over Cholowski at this point.

 

[SimonEdvinssonAtSix]

SEASON	INITIAL BASE SALARY	INITIAL CAP HIT	SIGNING BONUS	BUYOUT COST	POST-BUYOUT EARNINGS	SAVINGS	CAP HIT ( DET)
2020-21	$3,500,000	$4,250,000	$0	$1,055,556	$1,055,556	$2,444,444	$1,805,556
2021-22	$3,000,000	$4,250,000	$0	$1,055,556	$1,055,556	$1,944,444	$2,305,556
2022-23	$3,000,000	$4,250,000	$0	$1,055,556	$1,055,556	$1,944,444	$2,305,556
2023-24	$0	$0	$0	$1,055,556	$1,055,556	-$1,055,556	$1,055,556
2024-25	$0	$0	$0	$1,055,556	$1,055,556	-$1,055,556	$1,055,556
2025-26	$0	$0	$0	$1,055,556	$1,055,556	-$1,055,556	$1,055,556

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Above is what an Abdelkader buyout looks like. We save some cap in years where we do not need the cap, but we will have that buyout penalty in years where we may need every bit of cap space.
It is not logical to buy him out.

Below is what a Nielsen buyout looks like. It makes even less sense to buy him out because we will not save much cap. (Again in years where we DO NOT need the cap space.)

SEASON	INITIAL BASE SALARY	INITIAL CAP HIT	SIGNING BONUS	BUYOUT COST	POST-BUYOUT EARNINGS	SAVINGS	CAP HIT ( DET)
2020-21	$2,500,000	$5,250,000	$2,500,000	$666,667	$3,166,667	$1,833,333	$3,416,667
2021-22	$1,500,000	$5,250,000	$1,500,000	$666,667	$2,166,667	$833,333	$4,416,667
2022-23	$0	$0	$0	$666,667	$666,667	-$666,667	$666,667
2023-24	$0	$0	$0	$666,667	$666,667	-$666,667	$666,667

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Lets stop trying to make buyouts a thing, we need to get out from under our current LTIRs / Buyout penaltys not add to them.

 

[Winger98]

SEASON	INITIAL BASE SALARY	INITIAL CAP HIT	SIGNING BONUS	BUYOUT COST	POST-BUYOUT EARNINGS	SAVINGS	CAP HIT ( DET)
2020-21	$3,500,000	$4,250,000	$0	$1,055,556	$1,055,556	$2,444,444	$1,805,556
2021-22	$3,000,000	$4,250,000	$0	$1,055,556	$1,055,556	$1,944,444	$2,305,556
2022-23	$3,000,000	$4,250,000	$0	$1,055,556	$1,055,556	$1,944,444	$2,305,556
2023-24	$0	$0	$0	$1,055,556	$1,055,556	-$1,055,556	$1,055,556
2024-25	$0	$0	$0	$1,055,556	$1,055,556	-$1,055,556	$1,055,556
2025-26	$0	$0	$0	$1,055,556	$1,055,556	-$1,055,556	$1,055,556

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Above is what an Abdelkader buyout looks like. We save some cap in years where we do not need the cap, but we will have that buyout penalty in years where we may need every bit of cap space.
It is not logical to buy him out.

Below is what a Nielsen buyout looks like. It makes even less sense to buy him out because we will not save much cap. (Again in years where we DO NOT need the cap space.)

SEASON	INITIAL BASE SALARY	INITIAL CAP HIT	SIGNING BONUS	BUYOUT COST	POST-BUYOUT EARNINGS	SAVINGS	CAP HIT ( DET)
2020-21	$2,500,000	$5,250,000	$2,500,000	$666,667	$3,166,667	$1,833,333	$3,416,667
2021-22	$1,500,000	$5,250,000	$1,500,000	$666,667	$2,166,667	$833,333	$4,416,667
2022-23	$0	$0	$0	$666,667	$666,667	-$666,667	$666,667
2023-24	$0	$0	$0	$666,667	$666,667	-$666,667	$666,667

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Lets stop trying to make buyouts a thing, we need to get out from under our current LTIRs / Buyout penaltys not add to them.

Also, take a million bucks off the cap hit of each guy and you get the cost of just burying them. The cap savings is negligible with the buyout, making it even more pointless. We're not going to run into issues with the cap or the number of contracts given out.

 

[Snuggs]

Also, take a million bucks off the cap hit of each guy and you get the cost of just burying them. The cap savings is negligible with the buyout, making it even more pointless. We're not going to run into issues with the cap or the number of contracts given out.

Curious, I honestly don't know. How much would the team save by just burying a guy like Abdelkader?

 

[HisNoodliness]

Curious, I honestly don't know. How much would the team save by just burying a guy like Abdelkader?

Like he said it's about a million; it's specifically the minimum salary + $375,000 which this year came to 1.075 million dollars as the minimum salary was $700,000. So there's just no reason to buy them out really. We save so little, don't have a problem with contracts and don't need immediate cap space. A buyout hurts us in 3 years when things might matter.

 

[HisNoodliness]

Double Post

 

[Retire91]

I can't believe we are still talking buyouts

 

[skorf]

Buyout Abdelkader

Fire Blashill; Hire Gerard Gallant

- Sign a starting goalie
- Sign a 2nd line C
- Sign a top 4 LHD

Roster: 20 - 21
(A)Tyler Bertuzzi – (C)Dylan Larkin – Anthony Mantha
Alexis Lafreniere – Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – Filip Zadina
Michael Rasmussen – Valtteri Filppula – Robbie Fabbri
Darren Helm – (A)Luke Glendenning – Dymtro Timashov

* Frans Nielson, C.
* Givani Smith, LW/RW

Danny DeKeyser – Filip Hronek
Erik Gustafsson – Moritz Seider
Patrik Nemeth – Gustav Lindstrom

* Alex Biega LHD

Jacob Markstrom
Jonathan Bernier


This is my ideal offseason. You can replace the names of the green players with different names but essentially I want those positions addressed and the guys in pink brought up full time. Eveyrone underlined is a resignings and are RFA's not UFA's.

Just think addressing these positions in FA ( G, 2nd line C, and a top 4 LHD) will help the younger players develop a lot quicker/better than just playing along side 3rd and 4th line players.

* I'd keep Frans Nielson vs buyout because his actually salary is low though is cap hit is high... There is a shot... small shot, that Seattle selects him to hit the cap floor while paying a low salary. He'd be a 1 year thing and give Seattle big cap relief the following season after digesting there roster for a year. If I'm Seattle that's what I use Nielson for... or else I'm eyeing Cholowski/DeKeyser. I think Lindstrom might have earned a spot over Cholowski at this point.

Oilers fan here. I just want to point out RNH is signed next year with the Oilers still. So you’d need to trade for him and cannot sign him.

and as for your plan.. that still isn’t a playoff team especially in your division.

Retire91 has this as a plan above “IMO those slots should be filed with our own sink or swim prospects, over seas signings, reclamation projects, or cap dump trades”

and that’s what you should do... really no one needs a huge contract for 3 years (so you can take on salary up to that point), and really it sucks but you almost need to be hoping for another top 5 pick next year.
1) look for a marleau type of trade, a player being dumped with a first, or heck two of these (lucic, okoposo, Alzner, etc)
2) get creative with cap space. Again you have 3 years where you can take on salary. Trade Nielsen 50% retained to islanders for Ladd and a first. Or abdelkader 50% retained for lucic and a first.
3) Trade for guys needing a shot. Take a chance on Andersson from the rangers, puljaarvi from the oilers, or some of the other guys with talent that haven’t succeeded yet.
4) Sign a few vets on one year deals that you can move to a contender at the deadline for mid round picks. Guys that don’t get the big deals, but still solid contributors that teams can’t sign due to cap issues. Trade them at the deadline with 50% retained for picks.
5) sign guys like Hronek and bertuzzi long term. Don’t bridge them.
6) not sure if it’s mentioned yet and this may be more for next offseason, but Seattle expansion is next summer, find guys on the cheap that may get exposed. Look at some of the talent Vegas got.... like my oilers again, if we go 7-3. We’d keep klefbom, nurse and bear likely... larsson and Jones would be exposed one may be in play in a trade. Or if the oilers go 4-4 then Tyler benson would be exposed, solid AHL guy, high second round pick in 2016. A young guy worth a shot, could get him for something that the oilers don’t need to protect (that’s just one team, there’s 29 other teams out there and each may be exposing someone they don’t want to).

-Retire91 has it right... I would add in to his list, acquire as many picks as you can as well.... look how Yzerman drafted in Tampa... see if he can reproduce that success here.