Roster turnover

[Frk It]

Some quick normalized data: taking points per 82 games - averaged over the last three years - with a slight boost (10% year over year improvement due to any factor like player development, conditioning, etc.) - our top looks like - Player (age, pts):

Mantha (26, ~65pt) - Larkin (24, ~73pt) - Bertuzzi (26, 53pt)

Assuming the same for our next line, except a -10% product for Filppula given age - and baselining Lafreniere to a general comparable (Last 5 season point leading wingers in their rookie years: Nylander, Laine, Keller, Tkachuk, Kubalik)

Lafreniere (18, 60pt) - Filppula (36, 32pt) - Zadina (21, 48pt)

The painfully obvious gap here in terms of value/age/point production here is our 2C. Now I'm continuing to keep Val here because of his ice time, FO's, etc. as a Center but again, our need for a legit Top 6 Center is noticeable even with our core. Now we have three great options again:

1) Wait for Veleno and hopes he becomes that guy but it feels we are a few years out
2) Sign a Free Agent but a quality C will be hard to come by and will most likely be the wrong age as the core as well as being quite expensive
3) Draft a Center with our 1st Rd

I know it sounds painful to have to live through another weak season but the chance of securing a high quality Rookie C's that are taken int he Top 10 picks who can in their first year get north of 60 points isn't terrible. It's another year of rough sledding, acquiring and stockpiling picks. Restocking the farm, and pressing a high quality 1st Rd pick into our Top 6 and I like where we are in the 2o22 Season

We need a top 6 C pretty bad, but yeah especially if we are fortunate enough to have Zadina and Laf on the 2nd line.

Top 6 C and Top 4 D are the two biggest things I think we need to find via trade or free agency. It kind of makes me want Byfield that much more, but I don't really think he would be ready to play 2C in the NHL for at least like 2 years or so. So I hope we make an effort to address those two areas, personally.

 

[ShelbyZ]

The painfully obvious gap here in terms of value/age/point production here is our 2C. Now I'm continuing to keep Val here because of his ice time, FO's, etc. as a Center but again, our need for a legit Top 6 Center is noticeable even with our core. Now we have three great options again:

1) Wait for Veleno and hopes he becomes that guy but it feels we are a few years out
2) Sign a Free Agent but a quality C will be hard to come by and will most likely be the wrong age as the core as well as being quite expensive
3) Draft a Center with our 1st Rd

I know it sounds painful to have to live through another weak season but the chance of securing a high quality Rookie C's that are taken int he Top 10 picks who can in their first year get north of 60 points isn't terrible. It's another year of rough sledding, acquiring and stockpiling picks. Restocking the farm, and pressing a high quality 1st Rd pick into our Top 6 and I like where we are in the 2o22 Season

I feel like I wouldn't be surprised to see Yzerman roll the dice on option #2 again for a stopgap #2C. Just not sure who that would be since the UFA market seems super thin for centers, and I don't see him looking to get into the bidding for guys like Granlund or Haula. Brassard? Soderberg? Thornton or Spezza lol?

 

[Winger98]

We need a top 6 C pretty bad, but yeah especially if we are fortunate enough to have Zadina and Laf on the 2nd line.

Top 6 C and Top 4 D are the two biggest things I think we need to find via trade or free agency. It kind of makes me want Byfield that much more, but I don't really think he would be ready to play 2C in the NHL for at least like 2 years or so. So I hope we make an effort to address those two areas, personally.

If Veleno can be a strong defensive center who competently gets the puck to his wings and shuts down the middle of the ice...I think that could work between Zadina and Lafreniere. Let them carry the offense, sort of like the Naslund-Morrisson-Bertuzzi line from back in the day.

 

[Frk It]

If Veleno can be a strong defensive center who competently gets the puck to his wings and shuts down the middle of the ice...I think that could work between Zadina and Lafreniere. Let them carry the offense, sort of like the Naslund-Morrisson-Bertuzzi line from back in the day.

Eventually, yeah. But I don’t think Joe is ready for that next year, and I say that even as a pretty big fan of his.

 

[Winger98]

Eventyally, yeah. But I don’t think Joe is trash for that next year, and I say that even as a pretty big fan of his.

I don't worry about it next year. If we're talking about a team that can fight for a playoff spot in three years, though, I think Veleno could fit that timeline fine.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

If Veleno can be a strong defensive center who competently gets the puck to his wings and shuts down the middle of the ice...I think that could work between Zadina and Lafreniere. Let them carry the offense, sort of like the Naslund-Morrisson-Bertuzzi line from back in the day.

Rasmussen is probably more ready next year. Also Rasmussen and Lafreniere down low even with how young they are would be a lot to deal with and give Zadina a ton of room to operate with.

 

[The Zermanator]

All this Lafreniere talk is a recipe for disappointment.

 

[drw02]

Kinda surprised a lot of people seem to view Fabbri as a top 6 piece long term. He’s fine in that role for now while this team is trash but personally don’t view him as a legitimate top 6 F on a potential contender.

 

[PullHard]

Assuming we clear out a few F positions so that guys like Svechnikov and Hirose have legit chances of cracking the roster (don't want to gift them anything but also I want to see what they can do with better linemates and more sustained opportunity) and the bottom of the F group isn't quite so cluttered up, I'd be down to give both Soderberg and Brassard rich contracts at 1-2 year terms just to give our middle 6 a little bit more validity. Could flip them at some point down the line and retain some money to make them even more enticing. I don't suspect Rasmussen or Veleno will be 2C ready next year and I'm in no rush to see guys like Rasmussen, Veleno, McIsaac, etc. rushed if they aren't ready. I'd even keep Seider down again if he looks too raw but I feel like he will be an undisputed top 4D on this team next year even if we sign a big ticket UFA D.

 

[AttilaTheFun]

Kinda surprised a lot of people seem to view Fabbri as a top 6 piece long term. He’s fine in that role for now while this team is trash but personally don’t view him as a legitimate top 6 F on a potential contender.

Hudler played an important role from the 3rd line when the Wings were serious contenders. I could see Fabbri filling a similar role.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Hudler played an important role from the 3rd line when the Wings were serious contenders. I could see Fabbri filling a similar role.

Fabbri's producing @ 49pt pace/82 gp with a dumpster fire D/G/coach & rarely any real talent on his line. There's no reason to think he can't improve to be a consistent 55-60+pt player & better defensively as the team improves. Another 5-10pts isn't that much. 50pts or more = Top6/2nd line F in today's NHL.

 

[ManwithNoIdentity]

Not disagreeing with most, but Helm and Glendening have both been very good in their roles this year.

Helm has been better more often than not and while a lot of people say his contract is too much I’ve honestly never thought his contract was the tire fire people make it out to be

 

[Gniwder]

Why would Perlini get retained? He is worth nothing and has 1 goal this season!

Zamboni driver?

Fabbri's producing @ 49pt pace/82 gp with a dumpster fire D/G/coach & rarely any real talent on his line. There's no reason to think he can't improve to be a consistent 55-60+pt player & better defensively as the team improves. Another 5-10pts isn't that much. 50pts or more = Top6/2nd line F in today's NHL.

New PP coach > 5 pts easily.

 

[Retire91]

Helm has been better more often than not and while a lot of people say his contract is too much I’ve honestly never thought his contract was the tire fire people make it out to be

Helm is not a bad player but his contract was also came just after the Abby signing which has largely been considered one of the worst contracts in the NHL the entire time its existed. Helms contract is not on that level but Helm is maybe one iota above replaceable UFA grinder and not only did Holland sign him to 5 years he gave him a NTC. Helm was basically a 28 year old bottom six specialist and an NHL GM signed him to 5 years NTC like a top 6 forward. It is not world ending but it certainly makes you shake your head more than a few times, especially only a few months after the abby contract. And then to make matters worse many seasons they play him in the top 6, sometimes top line. I am still trying to figure out how much whining about this season is going on when only 3-4 seasons back we had top line Abby and Helm. I would rather watch this team all day long than that abomination.

I won't even mention that just before the Abby contract was another Cleary singing.

 

[Gniwder]

Helm is not a bad player but his contract was also came just after the Abby signing which has largely been considered one of the worst contracts in the NHL the entire time its existed. Helms contract is not on that level but Helm is maybe one iota above replaceable UFA grinder and not only did Holland sign him to 5 years he gave him a NTC. Helm was basically a 28 year old bottom six specialist and an NHL GM signed him to 5 years NTC like a top 6 forward. It is not world ending but it certainly makes you shake your head more than a few times, especially only a few months after the abby contract. And then to make matters worse many seasons they play him in the top 6, sometimes top line. I am still trying to figure out how much whining about this season is going on when only 3-4 seasons back we had top line Abby and Helm. I would rather watch this team all day long than that abomination.

I won't even mention that just before the Abby contract was another Cleary singing.

I never really understood why they moved Helm from 3C. He was a solid 3C, when paired with the right players he even put up some points. One thing we know is that he can't shoot, so no reason to put him on wing.

He was a much better 3C than a top six forward, it was like Holland was trying to justify the contract.

 

[14ari13]

I don't think free agency will be the path that the organization ends up taking - and whatever moves they do make will be for either stopgap aging veterans (1-2 year deals) or depth players that will have minimal impact and whose sole value would be to split time with prospects to minimize the role responsibilities of those young players making the transition to the league.

The Free Agents out there are either 1) Expensive, 2) Old, 3) Aren't Looking for a Rebuild Situation - or some combination of all three.

The top free agents out there - lets take Taylor Hall as an example; is 28 years old and a consistent Top Line Scoring LW - would probably be looking for at least a deal in the realm of what Artemi Panarin signed - 1st Line Scoring LW; 28 years old. Is it going to be 7x for $81M? Seems high, but it's going to be somewhere in that sphere. I find it extremely hard to believe that given where the Wings are - that they would want Taylor Hall at 11M+ till his was 35 years old because I don't think he would make us that much appreciably better. We aren't going to threaten for a playoff spot because Hall is on our team. And by the time we are in reasonable shape to be in a position - say 3-4 years. We're starting at Hall at 32-33 years old eating over 11.5M in cap with 3 more years which is going to create a lot of cap consequence.

The UFAs are all sitting in that 28-31 range depending how their contracts all shock out and this is honestly their last opportunity to sign that one last big deal - think term of 4 years +; meaning you're paying them into the well past their prime. It doesn't make sense for the Wings to dive into the UFA market right now and trying to convince a player to be a part of this will make it doubly hard.

Our path is set - we're rebuilding through the draft

Rebuilding is through the draft. I am all for bringing in a goalie. But more than that is not smart.

 

[14ari13]

Having Zadina, Lafreniere, and Seider on the roster would be right back where we were....? Hmm...

If we count on those 3 to reach their max, then we are screwed.

 

[14ari13]

Good for what purpose? and for how long? Krug and Suter both take up massive cap space and move our draft position out while simultaneously aging out of effectiveness when the young guys are playoff ready and crowding out cap space for post bridge contract periods and other more badly needed UFA when the time comes. Congratulations you have taken up almost 20% of our cap with two guys who are not in our top pairing when the team starts seeing the playoffs.

If we can get Lehner we should but I seriously doubt that Vegas doesn't resign him.

Very good point.

Though I disagree on Lehner. I think they have no chance of re-signing him.

 

[14ari13]

I think
Bert-Larkin-Mantha
Lafrenière/Fabbri-Strome-Zadina
is a pretty decent top 6 pair of wingers? which 2 would you replace?

It is decent if they ALL reach their max potential.

 

[14ari13]

I feel like its okay to be a bubble team when you have that 20-26 year old core established and that core is really starting to kick into gear for playoff mode. The definition of established might be where oppinions differ. I don't count players like Seider, Hronek, Zadina in our core yet until they show the same kind of consistency as Bert Larkin Mantha. If we UFA all our top positions with 28-32 year olds and players like Seider, Hronek, Zadina don't pan out and this years lottery pick busts then we are in a world of hurt. Because the UFA's take away our lottery picks when we had the chance.

We need much more insurance on our core then some people are thinking. If you start plugging UFA's now then those UFA's are a huge negative if your core misfires. Pretty much exactly what happened to Holland except even Holland's UFA's misfired.

I really can not even comprehend the notion of beefing up this team with UFA right now just to get bubble hockey for a few seasons at the risk of an entire decade of mediocrity. It so totally defies logic I want to get up and walk off my balcony.

If you want to see someone trying to UFA accelerate to the cup just look at Brian Burke's Toronto Maple Leafs.

That is really strange to me. The posters here complain about Holland and his mistakes and then they want to repeat his mistakes. I mean this season is terrible, but do people really want 20 seasons like this in a row?

 

[14ari13]

I think it's the exact opposite. This team needs generally more talent and also UFAs to play with kids. Talent needs talent to learn.

Also, comapring to Brian Burke Leafs -eara UFAs is just not comparable and stupid. UFAs are now younger than ever, and for 27-year-old, you pretty much get 5 prime years and if the deal is 6-7 years, it's a fine deal. Signing 31-year olds maybe was the kiss of death in the past.

UFAs will carry the team first and kids take the torch later. Kids need elite talent to play with and learn how to play with elite talent. Kids playing with scrubs won't become elite.

That's the way it goes.

UFAs might be younger than ever, but they become trash younger than ever.
It seems to me the players reach their prime earlier, but are also done likewise.

 

[14ari13]

I never really understood why they moved Helm from 3C. He was a solid 3C, when paired with the right players he even put up some points. One thing we know is that he can't shoot, so no reason to put him on wing.

He was a much better 3C than a top six forward, it was like Holland was trying to justify the contract.

They moved him because of the injuries, therefore.

 

[GreatGordie9]

Very good point.

Though I disagree on Lehner. I think they have no chance of re-signing him.

Try to sign Markstrom from Vancouver

 

[GreatGordie9]

If we cannot sign Krug or Pietrangelo who likely will be resigned by St Louis is Tyson Barrie an option or do we try for a defensive defenseman.

 

[Gniwder]

They moved him because of the injuries, therefore.

Is he still injured?

I'd like to see him play 3C next season just to up his trade value. It would also help him in free agency.

I've always liked Helm the player, but hate the contract. As long as the expectations are defensive third liner, he lives up to that billing. Fast hardworking player. The best part is his breakaways where he always gives you hope then leaves you disappointed like that whole Lucy/Charlie Brown football kick.