Roster Speculation, 2018 offseason Part 5/ Post-free agency edition

[Der Jaeger]

You've been pumping him so long and I usually agree with you're ideas (aside from overpaying for Fabbro lol) I'm genuinely hoping this kid pans out just to see all your work pay off. I have no dog in the fight I am just amused at how persistent you have been. I'm curious to see if you're right or not...

I’ve had prospects like this before. I was talking up Olofsson before it was a thing.

Fabbro hasn't received high marks in the team prospects assessments I've seen lately. I don't think he's any better then the guys we have in our system (Guhle, Pilut, Borgen, Samuelsson...).

Fabbro is in the 3/4 D conversation as far as upside. I think that about where Guhle is. For the other three, they’d need to develop well to get to that point.

Fabbro reasoning: RHD who skates 4 ways well, has high hockey IQ, plays in a men’s league in terms of physicality, and was used as a shutdown defender in the WJC even though he was hurt. He’s not McAvoy. But I can see him ending up as a Edler type defender. Does all the little stuff which doesn’t get noticed. But solid all around.

 

[OkimLom]

In all seriousness, I agree with everything you said there.

Well sir I may not agree with everything you say, but I’ll fight for your right to say it....

 

[WeDislikeEich]

Not really sure where to post this, but I wanted to share it -

 

[slip]

Not really sure where to post this, but I wanted to share it -

If nobody is trading their firsts, how in the hell did we end up with three?

 

[Dingo44]

If nobody is trading their firsts, how in the hell did we end up with three?

 

[GellMann]

If nobody is trading their firsts, how in the hell did we end up with three?

The lottery protection

 

[Reddawg]

The lottery protection

Sounds like no one wants to trade them now even with protection. And the STL pick is only top-ten protected. I can't even remember the last time a 1st round pick was traded without lottery protection, not counting Schneider for Boeser which happened at the draft.

 

[Jim Bob]

Sounds like no one wants to trade them now even with protection. And the STL pick is only top-ten protected. I can't even remember the last time a 1st round pick was traded without lottery protection, not counting Schneider for Boeser which happened at the draft.

Trades for 1st round picks rarely happen this time of year.

The trade deadline will be the time that you see more 1sts move.

 

[Reddawg]

Trades for 1st round picks rarely happen this time of year.

The trade deadline will be the time that you see more 1sts move.

I agree with that, and I'd be surprised if a couple don't end up with new homes. The 2019 UFA class is a big one, potentially.

 

[Jim Bob]

I agree with that, and I'd be surprised if a couple don't end up with new homes. The 2019 UFA class is a big one, potentially.

And there are GMs that will feel like it is worth it to sacrifice the future to improve their chances of winning now.

How many years did the Wings trade away their 1st rounder when they were competing for the Cup every year?

 

[Dingo44]

And there are GMs that will feel like it is worth it to sacrifice the future to improve their chances of winning now.

How many years did the Wings trade away their 1st rounder when they were competing for the Cup every year?

Man - if the Sabres are in striking distance around the TDL, and Skinner is playing well, it's going to be a tough decision.

He would ABSOLUTELY get a first at least at that point, and I would hope not conditional like with Kane.

But if he's part of our big improvement next season it's a tough decision unless one of the kids in Rochester has really taken off and shown he's ready to slide in.

I'd be happy if we were at that point in March.

 

[jc17]

But he didn't get great value in one trade so he's a bad GM

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

If the Sabres are in the hunt come deadline you don't trade Skinner. First off,we have 4 1sts the next 2 years guaranteed. We will be adding 4 top prospects the next two years at least. Secondly, Skinner is a legit first line goal scoring winger. Very few of those in the league that combine his age, goal scoring and speed into one player like Skinner does. And lastly, any team acquiring Skinner at the TDL is going to be a cup push team. So a first in the mid to late 20s most likely. Hopefully Skinner would be extended before then but if he isn't then I think I'd actually take my chance keeping him and pushing for that playoff spot then moving him.

Now if Skinner wants to hit the open market, or if he wants 8 mil AAV long term then I'm all for moving him. But if he wants to be here and will take 7 (or less) it's crazy not to keep him. I mean, how many star goal scoring forwards actually have Buffalo on their list with a full NMC?!? That's all that needs to be said. I want players that want to be here. Skinner would rather play here then Raleigh or LA. That's loyalty. That means a lot. It's at least one thing we can thank Toronto for, for being close in proximity.

 

[Dingo44]

If the Sabres are in the hunt come deadline you don't trade Skinner. First off,we have 4 1sts the next 2 years guaranteed. We will be adding 4 top prospects the next two years at least. Secondly, Skinner is a legit first line goal scoring winger. Very few of those in the league that combine his age, goal scoring and speed into one player like Skinner does. And lastly, any team acquiring Skinner at the TDL is going to be a cup push team. So a first in the mid to late 20s most likely. Hopefully Skinner would be extended before then but if he isn't then I think I'd actually take my chance keeping him and pushing for that playoff spot then moving him.

Now if Skinner wants to hit the open market, or if he wants 8 mil AAV long term then I'm all for moving him. But if he wants to be here and will take 7 (or less) it's crazy not to keep him. I mean, how many star goal scoring forwards actually have Buffalo on their list with a full NMC?!? That's all that needs to be said. I want players that want to be here. Skinner would rather play here then Raleigh or LA. That's loyalty. That means a lot. It's at least one thing we can thank Toronto for, for being close in proximity.

My preference is that he definitely scores a bunch, generates a lot of offense, isn't a tire fire defensively, and gels well on the ice and in the locker room with the Sabres, and then we sign him to a good deal.

My second preference is, if we're just not close enough at the TDL, we move him for a first ++, then he pulls a Moulson (sorry about using him, but...) and comes back on July 1 anyway.

 

[Dingo44]

If the Sabres are in the hunt come deadline you don't trade Skinner. First off,we have 4 1sts the next 2 years guaranteed. We will be adding 4 top prospects the next two years at least. Secondly, Skinner is a legit first line goal scoring winger. Very few of those in the league that combine his age, goal scoring and speed into one player like Skinner does. And lastly, any team acquiring Skinner at the TDL is going to be a cup push team. So a first in the mid to late 20s most likely. Hopefully Skinner would be extended before then but if he isn't then I think I'd actually take my chance keeping him and pushing for that playoff spot then moving him.

Now if Skinner wants to hit the open market, or if he wants 8 mil AAV long term then I'm all for moving him. But if he wants to be here and will take 7 (or less) it's crazy not to keep him. I mean, how many star goal scoring forwards actually have Buffalo on their list with a full NMC?!? That's all that needs to be said. I want players that want to be here. Skinner would rather play here then Raleigh or LA. That's loyalty. That means a lot. It's at least one thing we can thank Toronto for, for being close in proximity.

My preference is that he definitely scores a bunch, generates a lot of offense, isn't a tire fire defensively, and gels well on the ice and in the locker room with the Sabres, and then we sign him to a good deal.

My second preference is, if we're just not close enough at the TDL, we move him for a first ++, then he pulls a Moulson (sorry about using him, but...) and comes back on July 1 anyway.

 

[Jim Bob]

My preference is that he definitely scores a bunch, generates a lot of offense, isn't a tire fire defensively, and gels well on the ice and in the locker room with the Sabres, and then we sign him to a good deal.

My second preference is, if we're just not close enough at the TDL, we move him for a first ++, then he pulls a Moulson (sorry about using him, but...) and comes back on July 1 anyway.

If he pulls a Moulson, I don't want him signed here long term.

 

[missingmika]

My preference is that he definitely scores a bunch, generates a lot of offense, isn't a tire fire defensively, and gels well on the ice and in the locker room with the Sabres, and then we sign him to a good deal.

My second preference is, if we're just not close enough at the TDL, we move him for a first ++, then he pulls a Moulson (sorry about using him, but...) and comes back on July 1 anyway.

My preference is he leads us to a cup this year. Why aim low?

 

[sabremike]

Sounds like no one wants to trade them now even with protection. And the STL pick is only top-ten protected. I can't even remember the last time a 1st round pick was traded without lottery protection, not counting Schneider for Boeser which happened at the draft.

Calgary did exactly that last year in the Travis Hamonic deal with the Isles because Brian Burke. They got "lucky" and the pick didn't end up in the lottery but because many GM's are so terrible at their jobs the pick ended up being Dobson falling into the Isles lap so great job Calgary

 

[1972]

I’m hopeful Alex Nylander can come in and be a good player this year, I really hope he can take that step.

 

[joshjull]

Remind me to never ask you for financial planning advice.

This is a fairly pointless response but it fits the theme of your previous responses. Lots of melodrama and clutching of pearls over a financial situation (the cap) but little factoring of our actual cap/financial situation over the next several years or how NHL team generally handle these situations.

The rest is to you and @OkimLom from here on

Assuming Skinner clicks with one of our centers and merits an extension in the first place. Any deal he signs will be at least 2 or 3 years into it before any cap issues might arise. If they arise at all. I don't know of any team that would move on from a player they wanted to keep over worries of a cap crunch 2 or 3 years down the line. They would sign the player and deal with the cap crunch if and when it came.

Botts has a pretty open canvass cap/contract -wise to build this team going forward.

Summer of 2019 ---> Pommer, Moulson come off the books. Lets assume for the sake of discussion Skinner signs for 7x7.5mil and Sam is signed for 6yrsx6mil. That would give us 9 forwards, 5 dmen and a goalie under contract as of right now for next year, 3 notable RFAs (Erod, Ullmark and McCabe) with at least 16mil to sign the RFAs and fill out the roster. Much of which will be filled in by some of the youngsters we have entering the system or in it at the moment on ELCs. No cap problem next summer.

Summer of 2020 ---> Almost 20mil comes off the books in the form of Bogo, Scandella, Sheary, Wilson, Sobotka, Hunwick, Nelson. Would obviously need less than half of that to extend Mitts and use whats left to re-sign who you want from this group. Again no real cap issues.

Summer 2021 ---> Hard to say since there will be so many moving parts in the next few years. But with Dahlin's 2nd contract looming this is when there might be a cap crunch.

Obviously things can change due to trades and other issues in those offseasons.

I asked this before but its worth repeating ..... If Skinner has a great year with lets say Mitts and they tear up the NHL. Are you seriously suggesting we still can't sign him long term because of Okposo being here?

 

[jBuds]

Points to @joshjull for the use of “clutching of pearls”....

Big fan of that turn of phrase

 

[sabrebuild]

This is a fairly pointless response but it fits the theme of your previous responses. Lots of melodrama and clutching of pearls over a financial situation (the cap) but little factoring of our actual cap/financial situation over the next several years or how NHL team generally handle these situations.

and @OkimLom from here on

Assuming Skinner clicks with one of our centers and merits an extension in the first place. Any deal he signs will be at least 2 or 3 years into it before any cap issues might arise. If they arise at all. I don't know of any team that would move on from a player they wanted to keep over worries of a cap crunch 2 or 3 years down the line. They would sign the player and deal with the cap crunch if and when it came.

Botts has a pretty open canvass cap/contract -wise to build this team going forward.

Summer of 2019 ---> Pommer, Moulson come off the books. Lets assume for the sake of discussion Skinner signs for 7x7.5mil and Sam is signed for 6yrsx6mil. That would give us 9 forwards, 5 dmen and a goalie under contract as of right now for next year, 3 notable RFAs (Erod, Ullmark and McCabe) with at least 16mil to sign the RFAs and fill out the roster. Much of which will be filled in by some of the youngsters we have entering the system or in it at the moment on ELCs. No cap problem next summer.

Summer of 2020 ---> Almost 20mil comes off the books in the form of Bogo, Scandella, Sheary, Wilson, Sobotka, Hunwick, Nelson. Would obviously need less than half of that to extend Mitts and use whats left to re-sign who you want from this group. Again no real cap issues.

Summer 2021 ---> Hard to say since there will be so many moving parts in the next few years. But with Dahlin's 2nd contract looming this is when there might be a cap crunch.

Obviously things can change due to trades and other issues in those offseasons.

I asked this before but its worth repeating ..... If Skinner has a great year with lets say Mitts and they tear up the NHL. Are you seriously suggesting we still can't sign him long term because of Okposo being here?

Agreed.

Given Skinners history, I suspect there would be less of a jump in salary between signing him now or late in the season.

Unless he goes absolutely nuts and is on pace for 50 or something crazy.

No big rush at this point to sign Skinner at this time.

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

Okposo being here has no bearing on Skinner at all. Okposo is a declining middle 6 forward likely to be a 45-50 point winger then a 55-60 point one from here on out. Yes he has 5 years left. But like JJ said there is at least 2 (Mittelstadt) if not 3 years (Dahlin) when we need to worry about the cap. 3 years from now when Dahlins extension kicks in Okposo has 2 years left on his deal. And even though he has a 6 mil AAV cap hit he's only owed 8 mil the last two seasons in actual money. Even better, he has $2 mil in bonuses in his second last year when we would be moving him.

Pay Okposos 2 mil bonus. Now, Okposo is a 6 mil cap hit owed 6 million in real money over those two years, and that's exactly what teams like Arizona and Carolina want. Package a 2nd+3rd with Okposo and he will find a new home. I just think it's crazy to worry about our best goal scorer since Thomas Vaneks potential new contract when we have zero cap issues at all for at least 2 if not all 3 years of Dahlins ELC.

Like what several vet posters here have said, you sign your best players and then worry about the cap. Because let me tell you, since we haven't had a guy score 30 goals for us since 2011-2012 I think it's safe to say that a 30+ goal scorer is so hard to find. Add the fact he just turned 26, is fast as hell and has shown to be healthy and durable the last 4 years.

Games missed to injury the 3 seasons prior to being signed:

Kyle Okposo - 36
Jeff Skinner - 3

Okposo is nothing like Skinner. We want to play fast up tempo hockey that our coach succeeds at most? Well let's not keep the blazing fast 30 goal scorer who is only 26 because we have Okposo.

The fact we have 4 1sts the next 2 years is also another reason why our cap situation is FINE. We are going to be plugging in cheap ELCs on good first round players in the lineup. Botts found a taker for Tyler Ennis. He will find one for Okposo.

Oh and Skinner is only eligible for a 7 year extension max extension from us if I remember correctly from the RoR trade days. That means even with a max 7 year term Skinner would be a whopping 33 years of age. In 2025, I'm pretty sure we can handle a 25-30 goal scorer for 7 mil. He isn't going to be a useless scrub like Moulson at age 33. Skinner has too much talent, actually has speed too. Moulson and Okposo can't skate, were carried by Tavares. SKinner is a self made player. He gets 17 mins a game, plays with limited talent and still puts up the 25-30 goals. Skinner playing with Mitts or Jack getting PP1 and 18-1830 mins a game is going to be a 35 goal scorer. Maybe even flirts with 40. I could easily see a 37-28-65 type stat line from him this year. It's similar to his career highs on a much less talented team. Give him more ice time, and actually give him a stud center and Skinner will show he has more to his game that hasn't been fully unlocked. I've wanted Skinner for half a decade. I was pushing Myers for Skinner hard back then. Now that we got this premier goal scorer he needs to stay. His speed, age, durability, ES goal scoring ability and his humble and nice guy persona make him a great fit. Skinner has been an exceptional teammate and an asset to his community. He was targeted by Botts specifically for all of those reasons per our GM himself not my opinion.

Skinner is Botts first signature move. Yes RoR trade was a blockbuster but that was a back and forth type deal...both sides gave something good up. We got our first 30 goal scorer in ages and got him for a 2nd,3rd, 6th and Pu. And does anyone miss Pu? To me he would be just another Catenacci, Adam and Tropp type player. He's a tweener. He is more likely to be a bust then a NHL contributor.

 

[dotcommunism]

Oh and Skinner is only eligible for a 7 year extension max extension from us if I remember correctly from the RoR trade days.

As of now, yes, but if he remains on the roster past the trade deadline (and hasn't signed an extension prior to that point), he'll be eligible for an 8 year deal.

 

[Sabre the Win]

If nobody is trading their firsts, how in the hell did we end up with three?

Conditions on those 3 tho.