Roster Speculation, 2018 offseason Part 5/ Post-free agency edition

[joshjull]

Continued from here https://hfboards.mandatory.com/thre...ason-part-4-post-free-agency-edition.2520337/

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[joshjull]

He got easier minutes than either Bozak or Kadri, so his usage was 3rd toughest among their 4 centers, and their ES ice time was functionally identical - less than a minute per game difference between the three. This usage was both easier in terms of zone starts, where he was vastly sheltered relative to most NHL players, at over 60% offensive slant, and in quality of competition, in which Kadri's minutes were grueling and Bozak's less so but still tougher than Auston's. Auston faced 52 seconds of PK time the entire season, so his overall minute difference came largely via the power play.

All of which was possible due to the talent the Leafs had at forward. Do we have the equivalent talent on our blueline to do something similar with Dahlin?

If you look at the list of his most common opponents played (fun fact - despite being in a different division, the forward Eichel saw the most this season was Crosby, because we love setting up our players to succeed by sending them out against Crosby with Pominville stapled to his side) you find a bunch of second and third liners and 2nd pairing D at the top of the list, and of course, the Eichel line for Buffalo, which absolutely hemorrhaged goals against in 16-17. But completely absent from the top are the names Bergeron, Crosby, Barkov etc.

This is a poor take since you seem to be implying we had usage options like the Leafs did. Or that teams didn't have a much tougher tactical/matchup task in front of them to stop the Leafs vs trying to stop our offense or our top offensive line. In 16-17 the Leafs were able to roll out two equally effective scoring lines, Hyman/Mathews/Nylander and JVR/Bozak/Marner, as well as a very good counterpunching match up line anchored by Kadri/Komerov you obviously have far more to work with to dictate matchups. They could also roll the liones more evenly due to the talent they had.

He was given a role far different than anything we did to Jack, who again, has been allowed to face lines he's not ready for, even if he's had varying degrees of zone start percentage (I don't know what they are off the top of my head), and just like Auston was served well via competent usage, Dahlin could very well be too.

Mathews had a FAR more favorable situation to Eichel due to the overall talent in the Leaf's forward group. Do we have a similar situation with our defense to allow Dahlin to start in a sheltered 3rd pairing role?

I get your premise that you can shelter a high end talent. But for the Leafs example with Mathews to make sense/be relevant to Dahlin we need the equivalent level of talent on our defense. I also don't see a similarity with Jack either since he had less help. I think Dahlin will get more help or talent around him than Jack did and I think his situation falls somewhere between them (Mathews/Eichel). Dahlin can be used in the top 4 without having the kitchen sink thrown at him like Risto has.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

Guhle-Risto
Scandella-McCabe/Bogo
Pilut-Dahlin

Sort of like how the blueline shook out at the end of 11-12...

Sulzer-Hoff
Regher-Sekera
Leo-Myers

 

[EichHart]

Risto has been training like crazy this off season. Bogo has been on the lake all off season. Risto will have a break out year, Bogo will be injured within the first 20 games. Get him off this team.

 

[Der Jaeger]

Risto has been training like crazy this off season. Bogo has been on the lake all off season. Risto will have a break out year, Bogo will be injured within the first 20 games. Get him off this team.

Fake news. I’m at a hockey camp where one of the coaches grew up in Messina with Bogosian and is still in contact with him. Bogosian is training hard. His body just may not be able to take the stress at the NHL level. It happens.

 

[Royal Thunder]

Risto has been training like crazy this off season. Bogo has been on the lake all off season. Risto will have a break out year, Bogo will be injured within the first 20 games. Get him off this team.

Just because Bogosian doesn't post a bunch of pictures of him working out doesn't mean he isn't working out (he pretty much said this to a fan on twitter)

 

[ek93]

Just because Bogosian doesn't post a bunch of pictures of him working out doesn't mean he isn't working out (he pretty much said this to a fan on twitter)

This. I go to the gym every day, but my instagram has zero videos of me working out. Doesn't mean you aren't working. But it also doesn't mean Bogosian isn't just made of glass, though.

 

[ZZamboni]

Fake news. I’m at a hockey camp where one of the coaches grew up in Messina with Bogosian and is still in contact with him. Bogosian is training hard. His body just may not be able to take the stress at the NHL level. It happens.

And that distinct difference, which is logical and valid, are hard to comprehend for some.

 

[TehDoak]

Risto has been training like crazy this off season. Bogo has been on the lake all off season. Risto will have a break out year, Bogo will be injured within the first 20 games. Get him off this team.

You're really using a players social media presence to determine how long till they get injured?

For all you know, Bogo has a gym and private trainer up there and Risto worked out 2x this summer and took 90 pictures in those sessions.

 

[jc17]

And good on Risto for working out and being ready to come back in shape, but his fitness and strength isn't what will determine his success this season.

 

[TehDoak]

There seems to be a misconception on this board that a player "hitting the gym" during the offseason will lead to miracle on ice gains and players who they haven't heard about hitting the gym will not.

We see such a limited window to the players lives. What they post on social media is 15 seconds out of a random day.

I guarantee you if you look for history of players offseason/camp stories, you'll find hundreds of players who "hit the gym this summer" and the results didn't translate to on ice success. These stories are typically from a players agent looking to do PR and give bored beat writers something easy to punch up to fill their column in the dead part of the summer.

 

[Jim Bob]

I know some pro athletes don't want any photos or videos of their offseason work. They feel like it is their "time in the lab" and they don't want others seeing what they are working on.

So, a lack of photographic evidence of Bogosian's offseason workout regime means nothing.

Also, who knows how any of these guys are doing with regards to recovery (sleep and nutrition in particular).

 

[darcyRegier]

I'm not saying Dahin can't handle playing top 4 minutes, I'm just saying it would be irresponsible for the Sabres to give him #3/4 minutes right off the bat. The perfect role for this kid to start off is 3rd pair ES minutes with PP1 time. To the people that say " oh he's a generational defenseman, he can handle it"...I don't care how good he is right now, you just do not start an 18 year old defenseman off on the 2nd pairing playing 18-20 minutes a night. It's just plain stupid.

Also it was very inexcusable for Eichel to start off playing #2 center minutes right off the bat, but since at the time he was one of the best players on the team, they had nowhere else to put him. We (sort of) have the luxury with Dahlin where we can put competent enough (ehh) players on the second pair and push him down to the 3rd pair for the first half of the season or so.

I have no doubts that he's going to be an elite #1 defenseman very soon, but why rush him there instead of letting him grow his game against lesser competition?

 

[Jame]

I'm not saying Dahin can't handle playing top 4 minutes, I'm just saying it would be irresponsible for the Sabres to give him #3/4 minutes right off the bat. The perfect role for this kid to start off is 3rd pair ES minutes with PP1 time. To the people that say " oh he's a generational defenseman, he can handle it"...I don't care how good he is right now, you just do not start an 18 year old defenseman off on the 2nd pairing playing 18-20 minutes a night. It's just plain stupid.

I think it's stupider to live by these type of statements.

Dahlin will show us what he can/cannot handle.

Also it was very inexcusable for Eichel to start off playing #2 center minutes right off the bat, but since at the time he was one of the best players on the team, they had nowhere else to put him. We (sort of) have the luxury with Dahlin where we can put competent enough (ehh) players on the second pair and push him down to the 3rd pair for the first half of the season or so.

I have no doubts that he's going to be an elite #1 defenseman very soon, but why rush him there instead of letting him grow his game against lesser competition?

i don't see much difference between the "competent enough" defensemen we have today and the Centers we had when Eichel arrived.

 

[jBuds]

I'm not saying Dahin can't handle playing top 4 minutes, I'm just saying it would be irresponsible for the Sabres to give him #3/4 minutes right off the bat. The perfect role for this kid to start off is 3rd pair ES minutes with PP1 time. To the people that say " oh he's a generational defenseman, he can handle it"...I don't care how good he is right now, you just do not start an 18 year old defenseman off on the 2nd pairing playing 18-20 minutes a night. It's just plain stupid.

Also it was very inexcusable for Eichel to start off playing #2 center minutes right off the bat, but since at the time he was one of the best players on the team, they had nowhere else to put him. We (sort of) have the luxury with Dahlin where we can put competent enough (ehh) players on the second pair and push him down to the 3rd pair for the first half of the season or so.

I have no doubts that he's going to be an elite #1 defenseman very soon, but why rush him there instead of letting him grow his game against lesser competition?

Feeding him sheltered time versus lower level matchups won’t expedite his growth. You could probably argue the other way, where it would allow more bad habits to creep in and/or see him rely on natural abilities to make plays simply because he’s that much more gifted.

There’s a happy medium here, of course. I hope our staff can strike that chord.

 

[ZZamboni]

I said this months ago...

It wouldn’t be terrible if Dahlin played the entire preseason on the 3rd pairing. And even the first 6-10 games of the season. Get acclimated for a month or so, then throw him on the 2nd pairing and see how he does. In that timeframe, throw him on PP1, PP2, PK1, PK2 and see how he does. Of course if he rips it up and dominates, you throw him up even sooner.

Can someone with a logical well, thought out, non-dramatic argument tell me why that would be so ZOMG terrible?

 

[sabrebuild]

I said this months ago...

It wouldn’t be terrible if Dahlin played the entire preseason on the 3rd pairing. And even the first 6-10 games of the season. Get acclimated for a month or so, then throw him on the 2nd pairing and see how he does. In that timeframe, throw him on PP1, PP2, PK1, PK2 and see how he does. Of course if he rips it up and dominates, you throw him up even sooner.

Can someone with a logical well, thought out, non-dramatic argument tell me why that would be so ZOMG terrible?

I don’t think it zomg anything. I just don’t think it will be feasible, because I think he will come in and be clearly the 2nd best defender by the end of camp.

 

[Royal Thunder]

I'm not saying Dahin can't handle playing top 4 minutes, I'm just saying it would be irresponsible for the Sabres to give him #3/4 minutes right off the bat. The perfect role for this kid to start off is 3rd pair ES minutes with PP1 time. To the people that say " oh he's a generational defenseman, he can handle it"...I don't care how good he is right now, you just do not start an 18 year old defenseman off on the 2nd pairing playing 18-20 minutes a night. It's just plain stupid.

Also it was very inexcusable for Eichel to start off playing #2 center minutes right off the bat, but since at the time he was one of the best players on the team, they had nowhere else to put him. We (sort of) have the luxury with Dahlin where we can put competent enough (ehh) players on the second pair and push him down to the 3rd pair for the first half of the season or so.

I have no doubts that he's going to be an elite #1 defenseman very soon, but why rush him there instead of letting him grow his game against lesser competition?

Didn't Doughty pretty much play top pair right away? He turned out ok. No reason to say with such certainty that Dahlin shouldn't do the same.

 

[Reddawg]

Didn't Doughty pretty much play top pair right away? He turned out ok. No reason to say with such certainty that Dahlin shouldn't do the same.

He also made the Olympic team the following season and was excellent on that stage as well.

 

[1point21Gigawatts]

I said this months ago...

It wouldn’t be terrible if Dahlin played the entire preseason on the 3rd pairing. And even the first 6-10 games of the season. Get acclimated for a month or so, then throw him on the 2nd pairing and see how he does. In that timeframe, throw him on PP1, PP2, PK1, PK2 and see how he does. Of course if he rips it up and dominates, you throw him up even sooner.

Can someone with a logical well, thought out, non-dramatic argument tell me why that would be so ZOMG terrible?

I would be inclined to agree with you if we had more depth in talent on the back end. We have a lot of bodies, but not a high talent level for the most part. I think Dahlin comes in and shows he is good enough to at least start on the second pairing, with some PP minutes. Maybe he has a bad camp and is relegated to the third pairing, but i just don't see it.

 

[Dingo44]

Players earn playing time and the coach's trust to give them more time in more situations.

It's not a good idea if the Sabres are counting on Dahlin playing top pair minutes and in all situations.

But with his talent, coachability, and work ethic, I wouldn't be shocked to see him earn top pair minutes sooner than later, and if that is the case, then that's where he should play, and that would actually be a terrific thing for us.

 

[GellMann]

All of which was possible due to the talent the Leafs had at forward. Do we have the equivalent talent on our blueline to do something similar with Dahlin?

This is a poor take since you seem to be implying we had usage options like the Leafs did. Or that teams didn't have a much tougher tactical/matchup task in front of them to stop the Leafs vs trying to stop our offense or our top offensive line. In 16-17 the Leafs were able to roll out two equally effective scoring lines, Hyman/Mathews/Nylander and JVR/Bozak/Marner, as well as a very good counterpunching match up line anchored by Kadri/Komerov you obviously have far more to work with to dictate matchups. They could also roll the liones more evenly due to the talent they had.

Mathews had a FAR more favorable situation to Eichel due to the overall talent in the Leaf's forward group. Do we have a similar situation with our defense to allow Dahlin to start in a sheltered 3rd pairing role?

I get your premise that you can shelter a high end talent. But for the Leafs example with Mathews to make sense/be relevant to Dahlin we need the equivalent level of talent on our defense. I also don't see a similarity with Jack either since he had less help. I think Dahlin will get more help or talent around him than Jack did and I think his situation falls somewhere between them (Mathews/Eichel). Dahlin can be used in the top 4 without having the kitchen sink thrown at him like Risto has.

We certainly were not forced into doing exactly what we did, and it's not as if we would have been far worse over the last three years by easing Eichel in a little slower.

I will always reject arguments that suggest there was nothing else to be done - they pop up from the ROR trade to the usage of any single player. The Sabres were not destined to do exactly and only what they did.

Sure, maybe Larsson has to go from facing hard opponents defensively to facing...a few more hard opponents defensively a little more often, but I'm absolutely not convinced that chasing around Crosby with Eichel by season 2 the way we did was required and that the team would have somehow fallen apart and been unable to score otherwise (because that's literally what has happened Eichel's whole career here anyway...) For example, it's not as if Eich's rookie year lit ES scoring on fire. A replacement in that role, even from the mediocre roster we had, could have combined with the bump Jack would get with easier usage to produce the same, with the net result being a Jack more ready to play real hockey against the big boys later on, than still getting shelled as a bottom 10% of the league player defensively supposedly according to articles I haven't paid to subscribe to.

Nowhere did I argue that the Sabres would have had the success of the Leaves if they had just done this, like the implication seems to be bubbling under the surface of this post.

I absolutely would argue that we'd be in a better spot right now with Jack had we been better about it. I would argue that usage matters more than anything else coaches do, and more than anyone might realize. And I don't think it would have come at great cost any season along the way.

Also, I completley agree in general that Dahlin will be instantaneously ready for position as a 4D, and maybe as a 3D, and even a small chance at better - but people were jumping on a guy for suggesting that hey, it'd be cool to bring Dahlin in slowly, and I didn't see anything that merited the mild condescension, so I threw my two cents in.

 

[EichHart]

Definitely. See guys when you stalk players online you get the good info. I mean Bogo has a reputation for being a lazy fattie, so I’m not surprised by this investigation bearing this news.

He’s averaged just 50 games a year over his 11 year career on average. Some players are simply more committed then others. I can’t blame him though. He has a family he wants to spend time with and is set for life financially.

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

Eichel should have received less ice time at the benefit/reward of Johan Larsson? So punish one player for being young even though he's far better then Johan Larsson. No, the best players get the ice time period. It's one thing if it's between a 2nd round draft pick who is being eased through the minors with waiver eligibility and a vet player who is similar in skill. It's totally different when it's a #2 overall draft pick expected to be the franchise savior and a 4th line scrub like Johan Larsson.

Does Larsson even have as many goals in his career then Jack did his first year? Top 6 centers play a lot. Jack is a star center. He was brought a long just fine. Him getting less ice time would not have changed his development path one bit, especially not at the expense of Johan Larsson. If the end result is still the Sabres being a god awful bottom 5 team then I want my franchise savior to get as much ice time as he can get his first few seasons so he can be acclimated to carry a team by year 3,4.

This is the season where we find out what kind of player Jack is. If he's simply going to be a 75-80 point player like Getzlaf (which is not a knock, that's still star player territory just not superstar) or if he will be a true superstar center and score 90-100 points for us. Same with Sam, we will see if he is going to be anything more then a 25 goal 50 point player or if he can be a 30/30+ player. The two big $ big ice time veterans in Kane and RoR are gone. This is now Jack and Sams team up front, with Casey the new young gun and Skinner the top end goal scoring winger. I like a top 4 (top 2 wingers,top 6c) of Eichel, Sam, Skinner,Casey well more then RoR,Eichel,Kane,Okposo/Reinhart short as well as long term.

 

[sabrebuild]

He’s averaged just 50 games a year over his 11 year career on average. Some players are simply more committed then others. I can’t blame him though. He has a family he wants to spend time with and is set for life financially.

I think your sarcasm meter is broken. Bogosian has lots of flaws as a player, but literally the only thing that got him paid and drafted is that he is a workout warrior.