Roster Speculation, 2018 offseason Part 5/ Post-free agency edition

[TheMistyStranger]

Jeff Skinner ****s on those "replacements". Olofsson? Yeah a 7th round pick is a good replacement for a 25-30+ goal scorer. Just asinine. Skinner won't get paid premium money, we get the team discount. If he will take 6-7 mil you sign him asap. He's the best winger we got period.

Yeah. Eat it, Patric Hornqvist!

 

[enthusiast]

Skinner's one of the best even strength goal scorers in the game. If he wants to come back at a fair rate, that's a good addition. They can't all be Fedorov, etc.

e: to be clear, I think that the 7 I figured earlier would be fair on a mid to long-term deal provided he keeps up his production this year. Just like with Reinhart, pay a little extra now to enjoy a below-market-rate deal later.

 

[CatsforReinhart]

Jeff Skinner ****s on those "replacements". Olofsson? Yeah a 7th round pick is a good replacement for a 25-30+ goal scorer. Just asinine. Skinner won't get paid premium money, we get the team discount. If he will take 6-7 mil you sign him asap. He's the best winger we got period.

Its hard to take someone seriously when they bring up what round a player was drafted in. Just assine. First round bust or 7th round hidden gem. Lets not be stupid. The round is not relevant, the player is.

 

[Royal Thunder]

My initial fan reaction is to sign Skinner, but I think Botts is in total wait and see mode with this, as he should be. Forming a strong opinion one way or another seems like a bit of a fruitless exercise before we even watch any games to see how he fits and how he reacts to the change of scenery. His skill and speed will be very refreshing for sure and obviously the hope is he finds another gear and establishes himself as a core-level piece this season... but time will tell. Will his offensive contributions outweigh his defensive liabilities? Does he want to play for the Sabres long term? Waiving his NMC gives reason for optimism if we do try to sign him.

 

[1TuchAnd1NoTuch]

Sheary-Eichel-Rodrigues
Skinner-Mittelstadt-Nylander/Thompson
Berglund-Reinhart-Okposo
Girgensons-Larsson-Sobotka

Here’s my go at forward combos. That RW2 slot is open for competition in camp

 

[Icicle]

Lol so two more people ‘did mafs’, and both think Dahlin will sign for less than Eichel after ELC? Lol. And both say Ullmark will re-up for 2 million or ‘cheap’. If Ullmark is an average starter by then he will earn an average starter salary - 5+ million. And both people didn’t even include the Ellis deal that’ll be 7+ million that is the one I said would be over the top for us to add without hesitation.

So yes, signing both Skinner and Ellis in UFA would put us in cap hell where we’re going to be forced to trade away players for a fraction of their worth because of cap constraints. Unless the cap goes up 15 or so.

 

[OkimLom]

In the Skinner front; let’s actually see how he produces here before throwing around money. We do remember how horrible this team was up and down the roster, right?

In the Dahlin ELC, there is a probability that Dahlin signs for less than what Eichel signed. It’s called how much he produces with this team. I know Eichel, errr, Botts, laid down a low bar for production for “franchise” players but there’s a legitimate chance Dahlin doesn’t even meet that.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

Big difference between signing a guy like Ellis longterm & a guy like Skinner long term...

 

[TehDoak]

Jeff Skinner ****s on those "replacements". Olofsson? Yeah a 7th round pick is a good replacement for a 25-30+ goal scorer. Just asinine. Skinner won't get paid premium money, we get the team discount. If he will take 6-7 mil you sign him asap. He's the best winger we got period.

So was Kane.

We're. A. Last. Place. Team.

Skinner comes in, scores 40, we make the playoffs, sure, we can talk contract.

But....most scenarios is going to end up with Skinner being moved at the TDL. Even if we're in striking distance....future, future, future. Skinner isn't Hossa. He's a one dimensional goal scorer. He's a 2nd tier guy. We've already got Okposo on a bad contract for 5 more years. We can't have 12M tied up in 2nd line wingers.

 

[Icicle]

So was Kane.

We're. A. Last. Place. Team.

Skinner comes in, scores 40, we make the playoffs, sure, we can talk contract.

But....most scenarios is going to end up with Skinner being moved at the TDL. Even if we're in striking distance....future, future, future. Skinner isn't Hossa. He's a one dimensional goal scorer. He's a 2nd tier guy. We've already got Okposo on a bad contract for 5 more years. We can't have 12M tied up in 2nd line wingers.

Yes you can, if you have cheap contracts subbing in with your all-star center and producing like Sheary did with Crosby.

 

[Aladyyn]

Yes you can, if you have cheap contracts subbing in with your all-star center and producing like Sheary did with Crosby.

Still waiting for our first.

 

[truthbluth]

If Skinner is going to be signed long term, they need to get Okposo off the books somehow. I don't see any reasonable roster construction with those two guys taking up 15-20% of the cap.

 

[Reddawg]

If Skinner is going to be signed long term, they need to get Okposo off the books somehow. I don't see any reasonable roster construction with those two guys taking up 15-20% of the cap.

Well, right now that same 15-20% is being locked down by Pominville, Bogosian and Moulson all of whom will be off the roster by 2021.

Botterill is a well-known cap wizard who made all the crazy moves necessary to keep Pittsburgh compliant for years. We'll be fine keeping Okposo though I definitely do hope he is able to return to form.

 

[Icicle]

Still waiting for our first.

Well, luckily we have tons of new faces for this year:

Sheary (pricier)
Thompson
Rodrigues
Smith
Nylander
Olofsson
O'Regan
(possibly short term) Mittelstadt

Considering we only need two, odds are in our favor. Two of them showed chemistry with Eichel in college to boot!

 

[Zip15]

It's funny to watch the cherry-picked arguments against players. ROR didn't score enough at ES to justify his $7m+ cap hit. Enter Jeff Skinner, the "one-dimensional goal-scorer" who apparently shouldn't get a modest raise to be paid approximately 8% of the team's cap. It's as if being 7th in the entire league in ES goals over the last three seasons is a knock against him - say nothing for the fact that we're DFL in that stat over the last three seasons. At some point, I wouldn't mind a "one-dimensional" (elite) ES goal-scorer. That'd be refreshing, actually.

 

[joshjull]

If Skinner is going to be signed long term, they need to get Okposo off the books somehow. I don't see any reasonable roster construction with those two guys taking up 15-20% of the cap.

If Skinner gets signed long term it should be based on what he does for us. Okposo should have nothing to do with whether or not we sign him.

 

[TehDoak]

Yes you can, if you have cheap contracts subbing in with your all-star center and producing like Sheary did with Crosby.

But then those ELC players need contracts. If we were in a cup contention window or close to one...it'd be one thing. But...we're likely 2-3 years away from that. If Skinner were an elite forward, i'd say sign me up. He isn't.

You sign forward UFAs (players 25-28 year old range) to long term deals because you feel that they have 2-3 "prime" years left where they can be as good as the best years of their career. You understand that the back end of contracts (3-4 years) the player will be in decline. However, since you don't have to develop this player, you don't give up assets for this player, the risk typically is considered worth it

So, let's review Jeff Skinner. He's a one dimensional goal scorer. He scores goals. We need goals.

He is a good skater, which we also need.

But...looking at his game as a whole? He typically is pretty sheltered. Try to hide his poor back-checking down the depth chart.

He didn't play on the top PP unit on a team pretty bereft of goal scorers in Carolina. They were ranked 22nd. It's reminiscent of why Kane wasn't on the top PP unit, it worked better with other players.

Let's be 100% clear here. Skinner is a great goal scorer. And he brings speed. But....he's not (and he won't be) a core winger. To go through and pay the premium price for a secondary winger that will be on the downside of his career when our contention window opens up would be silly.

Now, if he has chemistry with Eichel or Mittelstadt and it looks like our contention window might open up sooner than expected, I'm fine with looking at an extension. But...looking at the most likely scenario (Improvement next year, but not quite there yet)....we should plan for Skinner to be gone at the trade deadline.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

It's funny to watch the cherry-picked arguments against players. ROR didn't score enough at ES to justify his $7m+ cap hit. Enter Jeff Skinner, the "one-dimensional goal-scorer" who apparently shouldn't get a modest raise to be paid approximately 8% of the team's cap. It's as if being 7th in the entire league in ES goals over the last three seasons is a knock against him - say nothing for the fact that we're DFL in that stat over the last three seasons. At some point, I wouldn't mind a "one-dimensional" (elite) ES goal-scorer. That'd be refreshing, actually.

Didn’t we have that in Kane last year? Maybe not “elite” but he was very good at it, statistically.

Not arguing your point...just not expecting a huge difference in the impact each player has to the Sabres.

 

[TehDoak]

It's funny to watch the cherry-picked arguments against players. ROR didn't score enough at ES to justify his $7m+ cap hit. Enter Jeff Skinner, the "one-dimensional goal-scorer" who apparently shouldn't get a modest raise to be paid approximately 8% of the team's cap. It's as if being 7th in the entire league in ES goals over the last three seasons is a knock against him - say nothing for the fact that we're DFL in that stat over the last three seasons. At some point, I wouldn't mind a "one-dimensional" (elite) ES goal-scorer. That'd be refreshing, actually.

RoR brought a lot more to the table than Skinner does.

RoR could play tough ES minutes....Skinner can't
RoR was one of the best faceoff guys in the league....Skinner isn't.
RoR played the PP and the PK....Skinner didn't even play top PP unit for a bad Carolina PP.

We also got signed RoR for years 25-32.

Signing Skinner to a long term deal would get us years 27-34....two less peak years.

Skinner is a better pure goal scorer than RoR....but he plays a much different role.

 

[Djp]

Again, you're ignoring the Horton deal. It's effectively $36.8m before the cap raise. Let's be conservative and say the cap only goes up $2.2m. That' gives them $39m in space. Let's assume the Big Three cost them $26m in cap to re-sign. They have $13m left to fill out their roster. Oh by the way, they have a great AHL team and they're teeming with young players who'll play on cheap contracts.

Your last post presents a team-building issue rather than a cap issue. I said earlier that if they trade one of those guys, it'll be to build up their blueline - not because they can't afford to keep all of them.

Im not ignoring the Horton deal....its around $5.3M that comes off in 2020. My post above looks at the team in summer 2020 so Horton is off the payroll then. also at that time Parleau is off the books too

The problem occurs next year. This year they could sent players on ELC down and call them up against his LTIR slot if done correctly. next year they cant. So it will turn into potentially dead wait unless they plan on having 1-2 players on ELCs they can send down and call up against his cap space.

Sure they can afford to try and keep all 3 but it will mean sacrifice on defense.

My rule of thumb is 4/7 of cap on offense and 3/7 on defense/goalies

Id in a few years you have an $84M cap that means $48M for forwards

Tavaras at $11M
say Matthews at $10M
say Marner costs $7M
say Nylander cost $7M

that is $35M out of $48M leaving $15M for 10 forwards

in 19-20 they have Marleau at 6.5 / It will tight for everyone else.

They have some extra space available in D/G to absorb the amount they would go over at forward.

 

[Icicle]

But then those ELC players need contracts. If we were in a cup contention window or close to one...it'd be one thing. But...we're likely 2-3 years away from that. If Skinner were an elite forward, i'd say sign me up. He isn't.

You sign forward UFAs (players 25-28 year old range) to long term deals because you feel that they have 2-3 "prime" years left where they can be as good as the best years of their career. You understand that the back end of contracts (3-4 years) the player will be in decline. However, since you don't have to develop this player, you don't give up assets for this player, the risk typically is considered worth it

So, let's review Jeff Skinner. He's a one dimensional goal scorer. He scores goals. We need goals.

He is a good skater, which we also need.

But...looking at his game as a whole? He typically is pretty sheltered. Try to hide his poor back-checking down the depth chart.

He didn't play on the top PP unit on a team pretty bereft of goal scorers in Carolina. They were ranked 22nd. It's reminiscent of why Kane wasn't on the top PP unit, it worked better with other players.

Let's be 100% clear here. Skinner is a great goal scorer. And he brings speed. But....he's not (and he won't be) a core winger. To go through and pay the premium price for a secondary winger that will be on the downside of his career when our contention window opens up would be silly.

Now, if he has chemistry with Eichel or Mittelstadt and it looks like our contention window might open up sooner than expected, I'm fine with looking at an extension. But...looking at the most likely scenario (Improvement next year, but not quite there yet)....we should plan for Skinner to be gone at the trade deadline.

I'm struggling with your definition of a 'core winger'. If that player needs to be a part of the PP or PK to be that - ok. But our team doesn't need that at all. We have great players there. What the team needs is a player who steps up during 5v5 and does something. Yes, Kane was supposed to be that, but he almost never showed up as it, and it seemed like whenever he did, he'd do something stupid really quick to undermine whatever it was.

It's the same fallacy with ROR - yes he can 'do it all', but no one player should be doing it all on a 23 man roster. His energy is a finite resource and he was overused here. We need that in multiple different players.

 

[Zip15]

RoR brought a lot more to the table than Skinner does.

RoR could play tough ES minutes....Skinner can't
RoR was one of the best faceoff guys in the league....Skinner isn't.
RoR played the PP and the PK....Skinner didn't even play top PP unit for a bad Carolina PP.

We also got signed RoR for years 25-32.

Signing Skinner to a long term deal would get us years 27-34....two less peak years.

Skinner is a better pure goal scorer than RoR....but he plays a much different role.

You won't get an argument from me that ROR brings more to the table than Skinner. The underlying point is that there are certain posters who seemingly don't want to pay a single (non-homegrown) player more than $5m. So I guess we're just going to always avoid the top UFAs out of fear what the last two or three years of a contract may mean, and the first three or four years be damned?

I don't know if some Sabres fans are simply scared that signing big-ticket deals jeopardizes Mittelstadt or Dahlin - Spoiler: It doesn't, nor does it mean we'll have to trade Risto or Sam for 40 cents on the dollar in two or three years. Or if it's that some simply want to win with almost exclusively homegrown players in primary roles. Or if it's just base financial conservatism that always has people fretting about spending. But, at some point, the team has to push the pedal down - and while the term "expedited rebuild" is going to carry the same scarlet letter as "stretch pass" around here, notwithstanding that it was Murray's moves and lack of attention to depth that did in his plan, not the principle itself, at some point Botts is going to have to sign some deals that may not look so great by their conclusion.

 

[BananaSquad]

If Skinner is going to be signed long term, they need to get Okposo off the books somehow. I don't see any reasonable roster construction with those two guys taking up 15-20% of the cap.

Easy, keep bringing in the cheap young talent, and don’t sign or bring in more moulson and Pominvilles of the world.

 

[truthbluth]

If Skinner gets signed long term it should be based on what he does for us. Okposo should have nothing to do with whether or not we sign him.

This is an absurd argument. Do you seriously believe that cap spent on one player doesn't affect the ability to sign another player?

 

[OkimLom]

Well, right now that same 15-20% is being locked down by Pominville, Bogosian and Moulson all of whom will be off the roster by 2021.

Botterill is a well-known cap wizard who made all the crazy moves necessary to keep Pittsburgh compliant for years. We'll be fine keeping Okposo though I definitely do hope he is able to return to form.

He was able to make these moves because he had a proven core of guys he could manage the cap around, which came from a collection of really good prospect, one of which was the best player in the game and another top 5 player in the league. That core still exists today. He's now in charge of building said core that he can do that in the next few years in a different CBA era. It's pretty easy to manage the cap when you sign AHL tier talent to low term and low amounts of salary. It's another story to get NHL quality players under "discounted" terms, to build a competitive organization, and to do so while you have windows of cost effective contracts with players on their ELC's. It's his responsibility to build a competitive team in a short matter of time, with Dahlin and Mittelstadt on their ELC's and Eichel already on his 2nd contract. It will be interesting to see what he can do with an organization that just did a restart on the direction of the team without an established or developed prospect pool/system and a league where values of contracts are increasing at a rate IMO that is more than the cap goes up.