Playoff Race Thread

[Warden of the North]

Could argue Bruins and St. Louis are top teams too.

Florida plays St. Louis 2x and Bruins 2x

Leafs only play Bruins 1x

Thats fair.

Beating Florida in regulation is of paramount importance

 

[Gary Nylund]

Could argue Bruins and St. Louis are top teams too.

Florida plays St. Louis 2x and Bruins 2x

Leafs only play Bruins 1x

That seems like a fair point.

 

[Advanced stats]

46% Playoff Teams
65% Playoff & Bubble Teams

Nitpicky me...so if we give 100% effort in 111% of our games...

 

[Gary Nylund]

OK I did some quick "research" so FWIW ...

There are IMO 5 teams that deserve to be considered to be the top tier of the NHL as of today, TB, BOS, PIT, WSH and STL.

FLA has 4 games remaining against this elite group, 2 each against STL and BOS.

We have 7, BOS, WSH, PITx2 and TBx3.

Substantial edge to FLA IMO, no doubt about it.

 

[18leafsfan18]

Thanks for those numbers, that's interesting. Yesterday I had a peek at FLA's schedule and ours and my impression was also that theirs was easier, good to have this broken down like that.

The main difference seems to be the 4 games that we have against bubble teams that they have against non-playoff teams. That may not sound like much but with only 26 games to go, it's pretty substantial. And as the Warden said, 3 games against TB is also a substantial factor.

I think we're better than FLA but it looks to me like the schedule is definitely in their favour. No question about it, we need to step on the gas and not take a single night off from now on.

Thats fair.

Beating Florida in regulation is of paramount importance

That seems like a fair point.

All good points, maybe the biggest score board watching to do now is to see what games Florida loses to the "Non Playoff Teams".

Basically for each game they lose to a "Non playoff Team" it eliminates one of those games we think are going to be very hard for Leafs to win (Tampa).

All this with the assumption that another Atlantic team doesn't rise up and catch the two teams (Montreal,Buffalo).

 

[18leafsfan18]

Nitpicky me...so if we give 100% effort in 111% of our games...

The % aren't going to add to 100% because there is crossover in the "65% Playoff & Bubble Teams".

 

[Suntouchable13]

Thats fair.

Beating Florida in regulation is of paramount importance

I think winning the 2 remaining games against them is a must.

 

[18leafsfan18]

OK I did some quick "research" so FWIW ...

There are IMO 5 teams that deserve to be considered to be the top tier of the NHL as of today, TB, BOS, PIT, WSH and STL.

FLA has 4 games remaining against this elite group, 2 each against STL and BOS.

We have 7, BOS, WSH, PITx2 and TBx3.

Substantial edge to FLA IMO, no doubt about it.

This would count as criteria that shows the edge I suppose.

But have to point out that 2 of those teams (St. Louis/Pitt) are only 7 points ahead of the Leafs. Pitt does have 2 games in hand however.

Many here would consider this Leafs season as not very good, but they are only 4 games back of 2 "elite" level teams ?

 

[Warden of the North]

OK I did some quick "research" so FWIW ...

There are IMO 5 teams that deserve to be considered to be the top tier of the NHL as of today, TB, BOS, PIT, WSH and STL.

FLA has 4 games remaining against this elite group, 2 each against STL and BOS.

We have 7, BOS, WSH, PITx2 and TBx3.

Substantial edge to FLA IMO, no doubt about it.

Florida plays WAS in their final game of the season, too. Hopefully Ovi is hungry for another Rocket

 

[18leafsfan18]

Florida plays WAS in their final game of the season, too. Hopefully Ovi is hungry for another Rocket

Hopefully he is hungry and tears them apart, then Matthews wins the Rocket against Montreal the same night.

 

[Vaive50]

It'd be optimal to be in a position to have either. So, probably should keep an eye on both.

Of course, it's nice to have that safety net.

 

[A1LeafNation]

This is such a terrible post.

For one example, over that stretch Matthews is at a 60.21 xGF% at even strength. They only way he could do better at "playing both sides of the effin puck" were to get in net and make the saves Hutchinson and Andersen haven't been making.

When Matthews has been on the ice at even strength over that stretch, Leafs goalies have a SV% of .872. Do you know how bad this is considering it's not even including power plays?

And even throwing out all the underlying stats, I don't understand how anyone thinks he's been bad over the past couple months by the "eye test." Like what are you guys watching, I watch every game and he's been routinely in great positions and backchecking hard.

Yet we keep losing.

Your response was a half response with no underlying stats on GA.

No one is saying they can't score. They are not defending well.

Ie Marner blowing faceoff assignments.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

OK I did some quick "research" so FWIW ...

There are IMO 5 teams that deserve to be considered to be the top tier of the NHL as of today, TB, BOS, PIT, WSH and STL.

FLA has 4 games remaining against this elite group, 2 each against STL and BOS.

We have 7, BOS, WSH, PITx2 and TBx3.

Substantial edge to FLA IMO, no doubt about it.

But we play much better/faster against Pens and Tampa which is 5 games so I don't think it will be much of a factor. Really only 2 very tough grinding ones for us with Wash and Boston. But Florida has to grind it our 4 times against Blues and Bruins. I think we have an advantage on this analysis. Those 4 games Florida has will leave a mark.

 

[TheDoldrums]

OK I did some quick "research" so FWIW ...

There are IMO 5 teams that deserve to be considered to be the top tier of the NHL as of today, TB, BOS, PIT, WSH and STL.

FLA has 4 games remaining against this elite group, 2 each against STL and BOS.

We have 7, BOS, WSH, PITx2 and TBx3.

Substantial edge to FLA IMO, no doubt about it.

Colorado is probably better than St. Louis, definitely not a tier below. +43 goal differential is hard to ignore.

 

[Gary Nylund]

But we play much better/faster against Pens and Tampa which is 5 games so I don't think it will be much of a factor. Really only 2 very tough grinding ones for us with Wash and Boston. But Florida has to grind it our 4 times against Blues and Bruins. I think we have an advantage on this analysis. Those 4 games Florida has will leave a mark.

I'm not sure how valid this is but I hope you're right. Maybe those 4 games Florida has will leave a mark but I doubt we'll go thorough our 7 games unscathed either. Hell I'm not even sure about beating Ottawa for that matter.

Colorado is probably better than the St. Louis, definitely not separated by a tier. Only TB and Boston have a better goal differential.

OK. I believe neither plays them anyway so doesn't really matter here.

 

[1specter]

OK I did some quick "research" so FWIW ...

There are IMO 5 teams that deserve to be considered to be the top tier of the NHL as of today, TB, BOS, PIT, WSH and STL.

FLA has 4 games remaining against this elite group, 2 each against STL and BOS.

We have 7, BOS, WSH, PITx2 and TBx3.

Substantial edge to FLA IMO, no doubt about it.

On the flip side, I believe Florida has more road games along with significantly more back-to-backs

 

[JT AM da real deal]

I'm not sure how valid this is but I hope you're right. Maybe those 4 games Florida has will leave a mark but I doubt we'll go thorough our 7 games unscathed either. Hell I'm not even sure about beating Ottawa for that matter.



OK. I believe neither plays them anyway so doesn't really matter here.

Yeah my point is when we play teams like Tampa and Pittsburgh they think they can out skate and out skill us. And maybe they can sometimes but we got a chance against anyone in those type of games. Most of time those games come straight down to chance vs chance and whose goalie is best wins. StL, Wash and Bos have very top end skill lines but they also play a forecheck and tight defensive game and when they decide to bring it we are in deep sh*t. My hope is we don't have to face either Wash or Boston in round 1. In fact if we can get on a nice 5-7 game heater here then we should get 3rd and likely face Tampa especially if we can beat Tampa in our 3 games left where we can control who we play.

 

[Gary Nylund]

On the flip side, I believe Florida has more road games along with significantly more back-to-backs

Well, that's good to hear for sure.

OK I'm going to stop analysing this now. Too many nuances and I'd like to keep what's left of my my sanity no matter what happens.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Yeah my point is when we play teams like Tampa and Pittsburgh they think they can out skate and out skill us. And maybe they can sometimes but we got a chance against anyone in those type of games. Most of time those games come straight down to chance vs chance and whose goalie is best wins. StL, Wash and Bos have very top end skill lines but they also play a forecheck and tight defensive game and when they decide to bring it we are in deep sh*t. My hope is we don't have to face either Wash or Boston in round 1. In fact if we can get on a nice 5-7 game heater here then we should get 3rd and likely face Tampa especially if we can beat Tampa in our 3 games left where we can control who we play.

On the other hand, we almost beat Boston the last 2 playoffs despite a number of things going wrong so I'm not afraid of facing them at all. And same with WSH the year before.

And I'd be very worried about TB, a team kills it in the regular season, gets ousted early in the playoffs, then next year they just don't have the motivation to keep their foot on the gas for 82 games but by the time the playoffs start, they're more motivated than ever and ready to roll. I've seen this movie before and IMHO TB is the most likely team to take the cup this year.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

In my ideal world, I get to see the Leafs beat MTL in a playoff series before I die. And I don't really care about EDM but I would like to see McDavid in the playoffs.

I'd like a Montreal series but at the same time, if it isn't for the Cup, it feels a little worthless. 93 would have been a dream.

I don't really care about Edmonton either, more just that their fans have been and continue to be insufferable, so I say "wallow".

 

[Loosie]

Yes but that just means we've been the least ****ty team of all the ****ty teams in a ****ty division.

Just sayin': we're only still in this because the Habs, Sabres and Panthers just don't feel like winning.

When did we move to the Pacific division?

 

[justafan22]

I think winning the 2 remaining games against them is a must.

If they win one of the two left in regulation, I believe their game in hand in cancelled out

 

[Gary Nylund]

I'd like a Montreal series but at the same time, if it isn't for the Cup, it feels a little worthless. 93 would have been a dream.

I don't really care about Edmonton either, more just that their fans have been and continue to be insufferable, so I say "wallow".

Yeah 93, sigh. Of course the final would be best, EFC is the closest we could get under the current format but trust me, even if it's a 1st round series, it won't feel worthless when it's happening.

 

[Vaive50]

OK I did some quick "research" so FWIW ...

There are IMO 5 teams that deserve to be considered to be the top tier of the NHL as of today, TB, BOS, PIT, WSH and STL.

FLA has 4 games remaining against this elite group, 2 each against STL and BOS.

We have 7, BOS, WSH, PITx2 and TBx3.

Substantial edge to FLA IMO, no doubt about it.

It is normal to be considering the strength or weakness of the schedule but I don't believe too much into it. For example, the Caps have lost 4 of their last 6 games and those 2 wins were against the Sens and Kings. The Red Wings beat the Bruins (for the 2nd time), Devils shutout the Flyers and then the Flyers embarrass the Caps. So anything can happen in any game as we all know. We have the players, we can do it if we want to, anyways if we do make the playoffs, we will be playing either Tampa or Boston first round so the Leafs better knock off their bad habits of the last week (playing only 40 minutes).

And let's not forget that teams that are comfortably in a playoff spot won't necessarily be wasting too much energy to win (Tampa and the Caps know that all too well). The tougher games will be against the bubble teams as they will be playing for their playoff lives.

 

[Gary Nylund]

It is normal to be considering the strength or weakness of the schedule but I don't believe too much into it. For example, the Caps have lost 4 of their last 6 games and those 2 wins were against the Sens and Kings. The Red Wings beat the Bruins (for the 2nd time), Devils shutout the Flyers and then the Flyers embarrass the Caps. So anything can happen in any game as we all know. We have the players, we can do it if we want to, anyways if we do make the playoffs, we will be playing either Tampa or Boston first round so the Leafs better knock off their bad habits of the last week (playing only 40 minutes).

And let's not forget that teams that are comfortably in a playoff spot won't necessarily be wasting too much energy to win (Tampa and the Caps know that all too well). The tougher games will be against the bubble teams as they will be playing for their playoff lives.

All valid points IMO. The parity is real, can't take any opponent for granted.