Playoff Race Thread

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TVs Frank

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Feb 4, 2020
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whats the percentages to make it now? give it to me straight doctor
I’d put us at 90% to make the playoffs, as long as Andersen stays healthy. If Freddie’s neck problems persist and Campbell is the starter down the stretch, then I’d say our chances are 50%. And with Freddie healthy I’d give our chances of getting past the first round as 50% against Tampa and 10% against Boston.
 

Advanced stats

Registered User
May 26, 2010
11,651
7,551
whats the percentages to make it now? give it to me straight doctor
We're at a 73% chance to make it
Florida is at 43% chance to make it.
Montreal is at 8%.


It's worth mentioning that Toronto currently has the 6th best odds of winning the cup coming in at 6.2%

-moneypuck
 
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danron1376

Registered User
Jan 3, 2011
1,695
1,001
if the leafs make the playoffs it will be after having to fight tooth and nail to get in. that's the silver lining in our playoff push. the leafs were playing lazy hockey the past two years leading up to the playoffs because they were comfortably in months before the end of the season. hopefully we'll be battle tested come playoff time.
 
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Sundin92

Registered User
Jan 25, 2020
169
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Broke down our remaining schedule and grouped the teams we play

Tier above us

PeguinsX2
TampaX3
Capitals
Bruins

Our Tier

Stars
Coyotes
Canucks
HurricanesX2
PanthersX2
Blue Jackets
Islanders

Tier below us

Montreal
Predators


Bottom Feeder tier

S
harks
Kings
Ducks
Devils
Senators
Buffalo
 
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Tairy Greene

Registered User
Feb 2, 2020
786
651
if the leafs make the playoffs it will be after having to fight tooth and nail to get in. that's the silver lining in our playoff push. the leafs were playing lazy hockey the past two years leading up to the playoffs because they were comfortably in months before the end of the season. hopefully we'll be battle tested come playoff time.
A little adversity is good sometimes. We've had some bad play mixed with some bad luck. Our competition has also been overachieving. I think some good things are due to come our way
 

Rants Mulliniks

Registered User
Jun 22, 2008
23,047
6,110
My point was that only two teams have a realistic chance of catching us in the standings. I agree that Montreal at 5 points back and us having 2 games in hand only has a marginally realistic chance to catch us.
That and for the most part, teams only stay hot so long. They are due to cool off.
 

Martin Skoula

Registered User
Oct 18, 2017
11,706
16,473
Broke down our remaining schedule and grouped the teams we play

Tier above us

PeguinsX2
TampaX3
Capitals
Bruins

Our Tier

Stars
Coyotes
Canucks
HurricanesX2
PanthersX2
Blue Jackets
Islanders

Tier below us

Montreal
Predators


Bottom Feeder tier

S
harks
Kings
Ducks
Devils
Senators
Buffalo

The most important part: only 3 back-to-backs left. Everyone we're chasing has more.
 

Gabriel426

Registered User
Jun 30, 2015
16,570
10,188
That and for the most part, teams only stay hot so long. They are due to cool off.
The fact that Leafs still hold their playoffs destiny in their own hands is great.
All Leafs need to do is get the same points as Panthers and Habs for the rest of the season and they are in the playoffs. They don’t need to win their games and hope other teams lose.
 

willmma

Registered User
Jan 5, 2017
3,180
4,058
We're at a 73% chance to make it
Florida is at 43% chance to make it.
Montreal is at 8%.


It's worth mentioning that Toronto currently has the 6th best odds of winning the cup coming in at 6.2%

-moneypuck


350.png
 

Dekes For Days

Registered User
Sep 24, 2018
20,212
15,374
So you agree players shown own this too. Skaters and goalies.
Goalies are paid to prevent goals when mistakes happens, at a certain rate. Our goaltenders have not been making those saves at that rate, so you can point to individual mistakes all you like, but it's goaltending most letting us down. The team is average defensively.
This team has been so poor defensively for so long that people don’t even recognize proper defensive coverage or the ability to clear opposing forwards from the crease anymore.
More accurately, we have been bad defensively for so long that people nitpick and exaggerate every mistake or chance against, and they think we're worse than everybody else and always will be, even though we've been much better this year.

Problem is, when our team is in the opponent's zone, we naturally focus in on our players and the offensive ability they show, instead of the exact same mistakes from every other player on every other team.
 

A1LeafNation

Obsession beats talent everytime!!
Oct 17, 2010
27,332
17,259
Goalies are paid to prevent goals when mistakes happens, at a certain rate. Our goaltenders have not been making those saves at that rate, so you can point to individual mistakes all you like, but it's goaltending most letting us down. The team is average defensively.

More accurately, we have been bad defensively for so long that people nitpick and exaggerate every mistake or chance against, and they think we're worse than everybody else and always will be, even though we've been much better this year.

Problem is, when our team is in the opponent's zone, we naturally focus in on our players and the offensive ability they show, instead of the exact same mistakes from every other player on every other team.
11m player are paid to play both ends of the ice.
 

56 Years No Cup

New and Improved Username!
Nov 12, 2007
7,816
6,739
The fact that Leafs still hold their playoffs destiny in their own hands is great.
All Leafs need to do is get the same points as Panthers and Habs for the rest of the season and they are in the playoffs. They don’t need to win their games and hope other teams lose.
So glad the bar has been lowered to just making the playoffs.
 
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