Sidney the Kidney
One last time
- Jun 29, 2009
- 55,807
- 46,959
How ****ed up would it be if JJ came out this season and had a solid season.
We'd have to hide all sharp objects from @pixiesfanyo
Man, I’ve been expecting us to be anchored with the deal since we signed it for at least a couple years.
That’s why I was so pissed about it.
I mean, there is precedent for dmen to take a probationary period before fitting their role on this particular team. Gonch was stinky-poo his first year and then became one of the best PPQB dmen in the entire damn league so....hey, maybe JJ can transition from hot, rancid garbage and become like, fancy garbage with a few air fresheners on top.
And even if he bounces back to fancy garbage with a few air fresheners on top (which I think has a reasonable possibility), is that something we really want on the team?
And will the team look to leverage that into moving on due to Pettersson's emergence and our cap crunch, or will they instead go "Inhale of our Infalliability, nerds! He's staying forever!"?
I think it depends on what "fancy garbage with a few air fresheners on top" is. If Johnson actually plays like the Penguins advertised him to be (physical D who can skate with the puck and has a solid outlet pass), that would be helpful for the team, just as Ian Cole was helpful for the Penguins. He'd still be poor to bad analytically most likely, but a player like that is useful and can help you win. If Johnson actually plays like that, I think he'd be more useful to keep than Gudbranson. The problem is that Johnson hasn't shown to be that since 2016-2017.
Like others have said, I think the biggest issue is having both Gudbranson and Johnson. If you didn't have one of them, you'd have a much more balanced bottom pair (either JJ-Riikola or Riikola-Gudbranson) and you'd be saving a good chunk of money. With that being said, there's pros and cons of keeping each. I think Johnson is probably better than Gudbranson and makes a little bit less money, but Gudbranson has less term left, is younger and satisfies JR's need for a tough guy.
Garbage of any sort and Ian Cole level are mutually exclusive to me. And I'm an optimist on Pens players, but I can't imagine JJ jumping to that level.
Me, I'm putting 16/17 RS Daley results as my credible ceiling for a JJ resurgence. I regard that as a fair way below what you seem to believe possible.
Johnson makes Ian Cole look like the second coming of Bobby Orr. If that's overrating him thenI think you're overrating what Cole was for the majority of his time here
Johnson makes Ian Cole look like the second coming of Bobby Orr. If that's overrating him then
Just for reference, here's what Johnson's 2016-2017 looked like for the Jackets:
-49.37% CF%, -1.47% CF%Rel
-56.76% GF%, +1.20% GF%Rel
-51.62% xGF%, +2.07% xGF%Rel
-52.42% HDCF%, +2.10% HDCF%Rel
For comparison, here's what Cole was in the same year, which I imagine a lot of people consider Cole's "break out" year:
-49.39% CF%, -1.11% CF%Rel
-58.97% GF%, +5.70% GF%Rel
-52.94% xGF%, +0.08% xGF%Rel
-54.44% HDCF%, +1.08% HDCF%Rel
Idk, I just can't see saying that it's impossible for JJ to jump to Cole's level in Pittsburgh when JJ and Cole were basically indistinguishable analytically in Cole's break out year. 2016-2017 was Cole's best season analytically in Pittsburgh, too. Is it unlikely that Johnson returns to 2016-2017 form? Yeah, but I don't see how it's fair to say that his ceiling is worse than what he was 2 years ago.
I forgot, actually having statistics based discussions on Johnson isn't allowed here. Only emotional arguments are allowed.
But yes, Cole is pretty damn overrated on here. I already posted the stats above for their 2016-2017, and Cole was actually worse than Johnson in 2015-2016 analytically. Johnson was noticeably worse analytically last year for the Penguins than Cole was in any season, but let's not pretend Cole was something amazing here.
I think you're overrating what Cole was for the majority of his time here
Maybe analytically, but there's more to judging players than looking at their analytics. I also believe Daley was worse analytically in 2016-2017 than Johnson was last year, so I have a tough time seeing that as JJ's "ceiling".
Yeah, but I don't see how it's fair to say that his [JJ's] ceiling is worse than what he was 2 years ago.
Oleksiak has size ...
Myers is kind of a train wreck, which was my point. So much so that the Jets decided it was better to go into the season with a bottom pairing of Popcorn guy and head usher instead of re-signing Myers. Schultz, if he has a somewhat non-catastrophic season, will by all means get more than Myers on open market.
Too many people said that we could easily trade JJ if it didn’t work out...Man, I’ve been expecting us to be anchored with the deal since we signed it for at least a couple years.
That’s why I was so pissed about it.
with him still here, that's the best we can hope for.I mean, there is precedent for dmen to take a probationary period before fitting their role on this particular team. Gonch was stinky-poo his first year and then became one of the best PPQB dmen in the entire damn league so....hey, maybe JJ can transition from hot, rancid garbage and become like, fancy garbage with a few air fresheners on top.
training camp hasn't hasn't started yet! there is still time, and i want to believe all those guy's.Too many people said that we could easily trade JJ if it didn’t work out...
Cole was noticed because of his outstanding play on the PK, league-leading shot blocking, and absolute toughness. He wasn't a fighter, but laid a lot of timely hits and did a great job of keeping people off of Murray.
Johnson is the antithesis of that. They may have similar 'production' and true defensive numbers - but the dude is below-average at shot blocking, is the most overrated 'hitter' in the National Hockey League, and pushes people into Murray vs keeping them away.
All things considered - I'd take Ian Cole @ 5.5M before I'd ice Johnson at 3.75. Neither are good contracts for what they bring - but at least you're getting something with Cole.
Not often I hear that! I thought he was unambiguously helpful in his role most of the time that Sully was here.
Daley didn't have a relative negative GF% in double figures and his negative xGF% was roughly half Johnson's last year. That's what I'm referring to.
This is the nub of it so I'm pruning the post to just this and to me, its the fairest thing in the world. His 16-17 season was enough of a high water mark to make questioning its repeatability fair to begin with, but when followed by two seasons of being probably the worst regular dman in the NHL and at an age where we do start to see players decline? I just don't see how he's going to hit that level again. I think its probably impossible.
The big asterisk here is that in 2016-17, JJ had a cap hit twice that of Cole. So there's going to be some expectation differences. It's like if Crosby put up the same numbers as Bonino one year. I think you're also overestimating the ability for a player to return to his ceiling at the age of 32 after having a long history of being basically who he is. At least with Cole, while he was here, seemed like a guy who was trending in the right direction. I'm fine moving on from Cole and not having his current cap hit, but dollar for dollar he was a better player than JJ.Just for reference, here's what Johnson's 2016-2017 looked like for the Jackets:
-49.37% CF%, -1.47% CF%Rel
-56.76% GF%, +1.20% GF%Rel
-51.62% xGF%, +2.07% xGF%Rel
-52.42% HDCF%, +2.10% HDCF%Rel
For comparison, here's what Cole was in the same year, which I imagine a lot of people consider Cole's "break out" year:
-49.39% CF%, -1.11% CF%Rel
-58.97% GF%, +5.70% GF%Rel
-52.94% xGF%, +0.08% xGF%Rel
-54.44% HDCF%, +1.08% HDCF%Rel
Idk, I just can't see saying that it's impossible for JJ to jump to Cole's level in Pittsburgh when JJ and Cole were basically indistinguishable analytically in Cole's break out year. 2016-2017 was Cole's best season analytically in Pittsburgh, too. Is it unlikely that Johnson returns to 2016-2017 form? Yeah, but I don't see how it's fair to say that his ceiling is worse than what he was 2 years ago.
I forgot, actually having statistics based discussions on Johnson isn't allowed here. Only emotional arguments are allowed.
But yes, Cole is pretty damn overrated on here. I already posted the stats above for their 2016-2017, and Cole was actually worse than Johnson in 2015-2016 analytically. Johnson was noticeably worse analytically last year for the Penguins than Cole was in any season, but let's not pretend Cole was something amazing here.