Salary Cap: Pittsburgh Penguins Salary Cap Thread - If the dog days had dog days

[Dipsy Doodle]

Expecting him to be able to put up 20-30 goals and 50-60 points is not "counting on career highs", it's a perfectly reasonable expectation for him. He has hit a pace of 45 or more points in all but 1 season (13-14), the absolute minimum expectation for him should be 30 ES points and 45 points overall. Him getting 10 points beyond that is a reasonable expectation, especially considering he has done it before on a worse team with worse linemates when scoring was lower.

You said 25-30 and 55-60. Considering his career highs are 30 goals and 56 points, yeah, you're pretty much expecting career highs. His pace is moot in this conversation because we're talking about the totals he's hit.

He's gotta be perfectly healthy AND embrace playing on the wing AND mesh well with Malkin AND see significant time on the #1PP for him to see these types of numbers. Could happen, but I'm not counting on everything settling so neatly.

...what? Are people forgetting who Galchenyuk is or something?

Galchenyuk is at worst a 2nd line forward who has put up top-6 numbers consistently over his career. I think people convinced themselves that he's somehow terrible to say the Kessel trade was worse than it actually is.

Nobody's forgetting who Galchenyuk is. He's a talented young player who's always produced his best at center and scored a significant amount of his points on the 1st PP unit.

He's not terrible, and I don't see anyone disputing that he's a top 6 player. But he's hardly a lock to hit career highs based on a number of variables.

 

[Empoleon8771]

You said 25-30 and 55-60. Considering his career highs are 30 goals and 56 points, yeah, you're pretty much expecting career highs. His pace is moot in this conversation because we're talking about the totals he's hit.

He's gotta be perfectly healthy AND embrace playing on the wing AND mesh well with Malkin AND see significant time on the #1PP for him to see these types of numbers. Could happen, but I'm not counting on everything settling so neatly.



Nobody's forgetting who Galchenyuk is. He's a talented young player who's always produced his best at center and scored a significant amount of his points on the 1st PP unit.

He's not terrible, and I don't see anyone disputing that he's a top 6 player. But he's hardly a lock to hit career highs based on a number of variables.

1. When I say "25-30 goals and 55-60 points", I'm saying that assuming he's healthy. If he gets injured, he won't hit that, but he'll still be on pace for that.
2. He has shown absolutely no indication that he'll have an issue playing the wing in Pittsburgh, and seeing how he has failed at center for 2 different organizations and has never had problems on the wing before, I don't know why you're mentioning that point. He's a guy that has preferred to play center in the past, but him preferring to play center hasn't caused him to be bad on the wing. He just wanted to play center.
3. If he meshes with Malkin, he's getting up near James Neal production, not 25-30 goals and 55-60 points. He's going to score that much just by virtue of consistently playing with elite linemates on a high scoring team.
4. He's going to see significant time on the #1 PP unit because this team is made of glass. He's a pretty safe bet to put up 10-15 PP points next year (Guentzel put up 11 last year FYI), and will likely put up more if any of Crosby, Malkin, Guentzel or Hornqvist have injury problems.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

"By god that Geno Malkin better get his act together this season or else!

So... uh... here is a castoff reclamation project and a bunch of third liners, many of which are new here. Defense is still a disaster zone, BTW. Go get 'em, tiger! Or, uh... bear... whatever. Honestly my guy... we usually send Gonchar to talk to you so I don't even really know where to go with this."

I mean I'm being more than a little cynical and a bit over the top. But yeah...

Yeah I fail to see how Geno's situation has gotten any better this season, as of yet. If anything it's worse. JJ's still here and we swapped out Kessel for a guy who scored half as many ES points and has similar drawbacks.

But we'll see. Maybe McCann keeps kicking ass and Kahun lights the world on fire and Galchenyuk is his new Neal and JJ gives up hockey to become a deep sea crab fisherman.

 

[Empoleon8771]

One last thing I want to add on Galchenyuk, I don't think Kessel and Galchenyuk are similar outside of being bad defensively. On paper, Galchenyuk's a better fit with Malkin because he's a shoot-first player who doesn't shy away from the dirty areas and can let Malkin carry the puck. The issues with Kessel and Malkin weren't that Kessel was horrible defensively, it's that Kessel was a playmaker who did nothing when the puck wasn't on his stick. Galchenyuk is closer to a Perron or a Sheary type of winger more than a Kessel type of winger.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

1. When I say "25-30 goals and 55-60 points", I'm saying that assuming he's healthy. If he gets injured, he won't hit that, but he'll still be on pace for that.

Gotcha.

2. He has shown absolutely no indication that he'll have an issue playing the wing in Pittsburgh, and seeing how he has failed at center for 2 different organizations and has never had problems on the wing before, I don't know why you're mentioning that point. He's a guy that has preferred to play center in the past, but him preferring to play center hasn't caused him to be bad on the wing. He just wanted to play center.

It has caused (or at least correlated with) less production, which has to be factored in.

3. If he meshes with Malkin, he's getting up near James Neal production, not 25-30 goals and 55-60 points. He's going to score that much just by virtue of consistently playing with elite linemates on a high scoring team.

That's exceptionally optimistic.

4. He's going to see significant time on the #1 PP unit because this team is made of glass. He's a pretty safe bet to put up 10-15 PP points next year, and will likely put up more if any of Crosby, Malkin, Guentzel or Hornqvist have injury problems.

10-15 PP points and 30 ES points - the latter far better than he's had in years - would add up to 45 points.

I get that you're hyped about the guy, but I think your projections are very rosy. As usual, I'm willing to put my money where my mouth is and make an avy bet. Let's hash out some numbers here.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Yeah I fail to see how Geno's situation has gotten any better this season, as of yet. If anything it's worse. JJ's still here and we swapped out Kessel for a guy who scored half as many ES points and has similar drawbacks.

But we'll see. Maybe McCann keeps kicking ass and Kahun lights the world on fire and Galchenyuk is his new Neal and JJ gives up hockey to become a deep sea crab fisherman.

It just seems like a hell of a lot of "maybes" and "ifs" to saddle with a guy they consider so important to their success and that they made a point to drag out in the press and deliberately fan trade rumors in an effort to send some sort of sideways message that like... dude is the problem and not the myriad of other factors that clearly plagued the team all last year. If you watched every game and even picked through the advanced stats (someone posted a good article on this a few weeks back, I think) -- it told a different story than the one the team wanted to roll with this Summer. Which to me seemed to be "this is all Phil and Geno's fault."

As far as Gooch... I don't think he's terrible. And I clearly think he has some skill but I think it's at least semi-safe to say that he and the Penguins are kinda mutually relying on each other to help him reach some of his promise or jump start his career after a few years and two teams-worth of uneven play. And that seems much closer to "reclamation project" than it does "bonafide top sixer" to me. But like you said and we all keep saying until we're blue in the face... guess we'll have to see.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

One last thing I want to add on Galchenyuk, I don't think Kessel and Galchenyuk are similar outside of being bad defensively. On paper, Galchenyuk's a better fit with Malkin because he's a shoot-first player who doesn't shy away from the dirty areas and can let Malkin carry the puck. The issues with Kessel and Malkin weren't that Kessel was horrible defensively, it's that Kessel was a playmaker who did nothing when the puck wasn't on his stick. Galchenyuk is closer to a Perron or a Sheary type of winger more than a Kessel type of winger.

Definitely agree there. We'll see how that manifests in production.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Yeah that fact is hard to argue. It drove me up the wall when Phil and Malkin were on the same line... both want the puck for obvious reasons. But only one could have it. Combine that with Gooch's ability to shoot the puck and in a hurry and you have the exact only two reasons I think it could work. What was even worse than the two deferring constantly was the fact that Phil literally couldn't take a pass seemingly 3/4 of the time... much less one-time it.

Otherwise no... I fully admit I'm not a fan but hope very much to be proven wrong.

 

[Empoleon8771]

It has caused (or at least correlated with) less production, which has to be factored in.

No, you're just trying to draw those correlations. You're trying to call a coincidence a correlation.

Idk, he put up 26 ES points in 48 games in 2013 and 34 ES points in 80 games in 2014-2015, both while playing on the wing. His best season was 40 ES points in 2015-2016. To me, that's just not a big enough difference to say that it's related to him playing center. It would be more valid if it was a 15 point difference, but 5 points? I feel like you can easily argue that's just a 20-22 year old player improving from season to season.

That's exceptionally optimistic.

Let me change my comment then. He'll score at least 20 goals and 45 points just by consistently playing with the Penguins. Is that more reasonable in your eyes?

10-15 PP points and 30 ES points - the latter far better than he's had in years - would add up to 45 points.

I get that you're hyped about the guy, but I think your projections are very rosy. As usual, I'm willing to put my money where my mouth is and make an avy bet. Let's hash out some numbers here.

Yes, and that's why the minimum expectation I have for him is 45 points. So 55 points doesn't seem too unreasonable to me, especially if he clicks with Malkin.

I'll make an avatar bet on Galchenyuk's production, over/under 50 points? I'll take over, you'll take under?

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

No, you're just trying to draw those correlations. You're trying to call a coincidence a correlation.

A correlation means there's a relationship between two things without necessarily drawing conclusions about which caused what. So yeah, there's a correlation. Galchenyuk has scored less on the wing than he has at center. Whether the position causes it is up for debate, but it does happen.

Let me change my comment then. He'll score at least 20 goals and 45 points just by consistently playing with the Penguins. Is that more reasonable in your eyes?

I'd say that's a reasonable projection.

Yes, and that's why the minimum expectation I have for him is 45 points. So 55 points doesn't seem too unreasonable to me, especially if he clicks with Malkin.

I'll make an avatar bet on Galchenyuk's production, over/under 50 points? I'll take over, you'll take under?

I'll be happy to sport whatever avatar you give me for a month if Gooch hits 50.

 

[K Fleur]

Nvm delete.

 

[Riptide]

Ah. Well hopefully that's the case. Because this sure looks like it's coming down to the wire.

Just go look at some of the player's we've acquired from (or traded to) the Canadian teams. Gudbranson and Brassard both played for us within 3 days (less if you figure that the trade didn't go down until the afternoon - so more like 48/55 hrs). 24 hours is pushing things, but longer than that and it's not typically a big deal. These guys (US immigration) has to deal with this all the time and I'm sure for a fee the pro athletes get fast tracked through the system.

 

[Riptide]

So he'll be quicker to make mistakes?

The more time and space he has the less mistakes he should make. Won't be fool proof as I don't think he's all that smart, but overall him being quicker can only help him.

 

[CascadiaPenguin]

Just curious, after we exhaust the Galchenyuk debate, will we be circling back to more *****ing about the Tanev deal, or is there fresh meat out there? Hopefully there will be a dam break of RFA signings around Labor Day and we finally find out what JR's next great trade will look like.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Just curious, after we exhaust the Galchenyuk debate, will we be circling back to more *****ing about the Tanev deal, or is there fresh meat out there? Hopefully there will be a dam break of RFA signings around Labor Day and we finally find out what JR's next great trade will look like.

Rust for futures. Followed immediately by somehow dredging up Alex Semin and signing him to a 5 year 3.5M dollar deal sight unseen because "That wrister is just still straight zany guys, I swear. He just needs another Russian and I'm pretty sure that Malkin guy is one but I never talk to him except though the press so I dunno. He might be Eskimo or something. Is that PC?"

Uh... E3.

 

[Riptide]

Yeah I fail to see how Geno's situation has gotten any better this season, as of yet. If anything it's worse. JJ's still here and we swapped out Kessel for a guy who scored half as many ES points and has similar drawbacks.

But we'll see. Maybe McCann keeps kicking ass and Kahun lights the world on fire and Galchenyuk is his new Neal and JJ gives up hockey to become a deep sea crab fisherman.

Well part of that is severely colored by the fact that you were/are in love with Kessel and that no one outside of another flawed PPG winger will be good enough to replace him. That aside, it all depends on the fit between Malkin and Gally. Malkin and Kessel were frequently like oil and water. If Malkin and Gally are oil and water, then we're going to be entirely dependent on someone else stepping up big time. If they fit well then the idea that Gally will only hit his career norms at ES seems pretty flawed given who most of his centers/linemates have been over his career vs the caliber of player we have in Malkin.

We don't need Gally to be the new Neal. We just need him to give a shit more than Kessel did over his last 3 months or so here. Him hitting career highs would obviously be a good thing, but that too isn't really a huge need - as long as he's able to contribute enough to make that line an effective threat on a nightly basis.

I'll be happy to sport whatever avatar you give me for a month if Gooch hits 50.

@Empoleon8771

I think you guys should add in the pace into this (just in case it's not obvious) in case he misses some games, as it probably wouldn't take much to miss 50pts if he misses a few games.

 

[farscape1]

I'm bored. When does training camp start?

 

[Riptide]

I'm bored. When does training camp start?

Thursday Sept 12.

So JR has until aproximately Sept 5/8th to trade JJ so MP can sign his new contract and start working on getting his work visa on Monday Sept 9th (I'm making an assumption about it being open on reg. business days - odds are there's options here as well). So basically 2 more weeks and we'll likely know how this is going to shake out re JJ or Rust/Bjugs or someone else.

 

[farscape1]

Thursday Sept 12.

So JR has until aproximately Sept 5/8th to trade JJ so MP can sign his new contract and start working on getting his work visa on Monday Sept 9th (I'm making an assumption about it being open on reg. business days - odds are there's options here as well). So basically 2 more weeks and we'll likely know how this is going to shake out re JJ or Rust/Bjugs or someone else.

So the count down begins. Thanks! I love preseason.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Well part of that is severely colored by the fact that you were/are in love with Kessel and that no one outside of another flawed PPG winger will be good enough to replace him. That aside, it all depends on the fit between Malkin and Gally. Malkin and Kessel were frequently like oil and water. If Malkin and Gally are oil and water, then we're going to be entirely dependent on someone else stepping up big time. If they fit well then the idea that Gally will only hit his career norms at ES seems pretty flawed given who most of his centers/linemates have been over his career vs the caliber of player we have in Malkin.

We don't need Gally to be the new Neal. We just need him to give a **** more than Kessel did over his last 3 months or so here. Him hitting career highs would obviously be a good thing, but that too isn't really a huge need - as long as he's able to contribute enough to make that line an effective threat on a nightly basis.

If the Pens had dealt Kessel for more of a two-way player who scored fewer points, I'd have disagreed but I'd have at least understood the rationale. Instead they traded Kessel for a slightly cheaper defensively suspect winger...who's an impending UFA and scored half as much last year.

Whatever you think of Geno and Kessel's "oil and water" performance, odds are it'll be a lot more productive than Geno and Galchenyuk's this year. And what did we gain? P.O. Joseph and Brandon Tanev.

@Empoleon8771

I think you guys should add in the pace into this (just in case it's not obvious) in case he misses some games, as it probably wouldn't take much to miss 50pts if he misses a few games.

Kessel doesn't miss games.

 

[Pens x]

It’s pretty funny no one has signed Sheahan this late in the offseason. It seems like only yesterday when people actually viewed him as a 3C.

 

[Riptide]

Kessel doesn't miss games.

No, just does everything possible to avoid any sort of physical contact. Gally had more hits last season then Kessel had in his entire Penguins career. And before you bring it up, no this isn't about the hits themselves, it's about what they represent re the player's engagement levels when not producing. Kessel was dogshit for almost half the season last year and brought next to nothing when not producing. It's one of the big reasons why he's gone.

 

[Shady Machine]

No, just does everything possible to avoid any sort of physical contact. Gally had more hits last season then Kessel had in his entire Penguins career. And before you bring it up, no this isn't about the hits themselves, it's about what they represent re the player's engagement levels when not producing. Kessel was dog**** for almost half the season last year and brought next to nothing when not producing. It's one of the big reasons why he's gone.

So why are we prorating production for Gally when there is a direct comparison being made with Phil? I get proration for certain players, but with Kessel, part of the value is reliability that he’s going to play 82 games and product apprx a point per game.

 

[Riptide]

So why are we prorating production for Gally when there is a direct comparison being made with Phil? I get proration for certain players, but with Kessel, part of the value is reliability that he’s going to play 82 games and product apprx a point per game.

Not really if we're getting more out of Gally away from the puck.

 

[ColePens]

It’s pretty funny no one has signed Sheahan this late in the offseason. It seems like only yesterday when people actually viewed him as a 3C.

Love comments like this from people with brutal post history.

Like maybe THREE people thought Sheahan was a 3C here. Maybe 3. I would be shocked if there were 3. A lot of people, not myself, were interested at first in the reclamation project. I think I am on record most of the time saying I'll wait and see but he looks like an AHL version of Jordan Staal, not an NHL player.

But I just shake my head. How many people were around here saying Sheahan was a great 3C? I don't recall that at all and i have waaaaay too many posts on HF Boards.