Salary Cap: Pittsburgh Penguins Salary Cap Thread - If the dog days had dog days

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

The same guy with the same skills has been better pretty much everywhere else. I'm not saying he's necessarily going to be *good*, but I feel like anyone in that situation has a good chance of a rebound unless you can see very specific reasons why not. I can see a few - maybe terminal age decline has set in; maybe he's just super in the wrong system; maybe the awkward jigsaw gets him, as his best hope is a reprise of Johnson-Pettersson but there's too many righties for that - but its maybes.

I dunno, man. Like I said... I won't automatically discount almost any possibility. But JJ hasn't been good in a while. This isn't really a recent falloff. It started years back. It's why the signing was so polarizing from the start. Columbus is right there. It's hard not to notice the guy your team keeps clowning every single matchup. I would get giddy when CBJ deployed JJ against one of the top lines. Or hell... even the third line, at times.

For pro athletes, not really. Maybe 2-3 business days tops. Usually it's even quicker.

Ah. Well hopefully that's the case. Because this sure looks like it's coming down to the wire.

 

[Peat]

I dunno, man. Like I said... I won't automatically discount almost any possibility. But JJ hasn't been good in a while. This isn't really a recent falloff. It started years back. It's why the signing was so polarizing from the start. Columbus is right there. It's hard not to notice the guy your team keeps clowning every single matchup. I would get giddy when CBJ deployed JJ against one of the top lines. Or hell... even the third line, at times.

But there's a big difference between "Not Good" and "So bad he might be the difference between 1st and Wild Card single handedly". Him improving from the latter to the former is credible (also, he did have an annus mirabilis year pretty recently if I'm gonna be picky). That's all I'm saying. Not that he's going to be good or a player that we like. Just that he might be better than last year.

 

[ZeroPucksGiven]

But there's a big difference between "Not Good" and "So bad he might be the difference between 1st and Wild Card single handedly". Him improving from the latter to the former is credible (also, he did have an annus mirabilis year pretty recently if I'm gonna be picky). That's all I'm saying. Not that he's going to be good or a player that we like. Just that he might be better than last year.

JJ is who he is. He's essentially the opposite of how we were talking about Gud's earlier in this thread. The latter had 20 games with this team, so you can reasonably state his grade is "Incomplete" at this point. The former had an entire camp, preseason and 82 games to show what he is and that was not much different than he's shown with his previous 3 teams.

Factor in age (JJ is 31 and Gud's 25) and you can see why one is pessimistic that JJ will dramatically alter what he's shown

 

[Peat]

JJ is who he is. He's essentially the opposite of how we were talking about Gud's earlier in this thread. The latter had 20 games with this team, so you can reasonably state his grade is "Incomplete" at this point. The former had an entire camp, preseason and 82 games to show what he is and that was not much different than he's shown with his previous 3 teams.

Factor in age (JJ is 31 and Gud's 25) and you can see why one is pessimistic that JJ will dramatically alter what he's shown

But the results were different. They were notably worse than what he's shown elsewhere. Which is quite impressive when you get down to it.

If Johnson is the same player he's always been, why can't he go back to being only quite bad as he was elsewhere?

edit: players completely overturning the evidence of the past season (for better or worse) isn't super common, but obviously it does happen.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

I omitted a vital part of the sentence - since joining CBJ. So worse than his last year there. Worse than most of his LA years too.

Gotcha.

But there's a big difference between "Not Good" and "So bad he might be the difference between 1st and Wild Card single handedly". Him improving from the latter to the former is credible (also, he did have an annus mirabilis year pretty recently if I'm gonna be picky). That's all I'm saying. Not that he's going to be good or a player that we like. Just that he might be better than last year.

Pretty low bar, but possible. I can't imagine he'll be above replacement level...I'd take Riikola over him in a heartbeat.

 

[Empoleon8771]

There was only 6 points separating 1st in the division and the last wildcard spot last year, and Johnson averaged 19 minutes a night last year - top 4 on our our team, exactly where he'd be playing if some here got their wish and Pettersson/Gudbranson remained together.

No he wouldn't be playing 19 minutes a night, he'd be used similarly to how he was used in the playoffs last year.

JJ can absolutely be the difference between 1st and struggling for a wildcard this season if they use him like last season.

No he wouldn't. If the Penguins are struggling to make the playoffs, it's going to be a lot more than "Jack Johnson is on the Penguins". I genuinely think people blame JJ for all of the Penguins problems because they don't want to accept the rest of the roster is flawed.

Given that Malkin's line and every defense pairing after the 1st was a mess for most of last year, that's not terribly surprising. But since we're talking about the whole team here...

No it wasn't, at least not all of them. The only pair they had that was legitimately a mess was Johnson-Schultz, the rest of their pairs were just mediocre.

Crosby's 5v5 GF/GA ratio with JJ last year was 15-17.
Crosby's 5v5 GF/GA ratio without JJ last year was 67-26.

Yeah.

Let's conveniently not mention the fact that Crosby played with Letang for a huge majority of his time. Yep, that's not a factor worth mentioning or anything.

Johnson hurts the Penguins, but you're severely overstating the impact one player can have on a team.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Yeah honestly even if I'm not personally super optimistic about Gudbranson working out here much less living up to that bloated contract I can at least understand preaching some patience, there. I think some go a bit far in describing how "terrific" he was last year but he was at least serviceable.

@Peat - I do get what you're driving at. Here's to hoping because they are stuck with him (JJ) at least for a bit.

Though that's also kind of a double edged sword. Say they increase his value a bit through acceptable play and are thus afforded an opportunity to pawn him off on some sucker. Do they actually take it or convince themselves he's "rehabilitated?"

 

[Empoleon8771]

By the way, I don't think anyone really disagrees with what Johnson is at this point. I think the big disagreement comes from how big of an impact one player can have on a team. The Penguins ended up a WC team last year with an incompetent 2nd line, a 3rd line that went long stretches without scoring, a 4th line anchored by a 100 year old man and a center who couldn't play wing, a 2nd pair that missed Schultz for 60 games (and Schultz being horrendous when he returned) and was saddled by JJ and a 3rd pair that alternated struggling young players throughout the year. Take JJ out of that equation and the rest still applies, getting rid of him isn't this magic bullet that somehow makes the team dramatically better.

If the Penguins are struggling for a playoff spot, it will probably be due to a combination of 3 or 4 of Malkin and Galchenyuk don't click, the bottom-6 can't score, Letang or Pettersson takes a step back (that really hurts their defense if either of those two struggles), Johnson and Gudbranson suck, Murray gets injured/struggles or stuff like that.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Yohe lists Rust, Bjugstad, Jarry, JJ and Guds as the candidates to be traded (don’t think this is new). Calls Schultz UFA situation “delicate”. Says JJ is working “feverishly” this summer, which probably just means he’ll be healthy as a bull for 82 games. Also sounds like no Chucky on PP1- Letang, Hornqvist, Guentzel plus the big 2.

There’s more in his new piece. Solid article, helps give the reader some feel for how the organization views the roster.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Too bad JJ can't do mental exercises, because him becoming more in shape isn't going to help him

Dude already has the build of a football linebacker, physical talents or fitness have never been a problem with him.

 

[Peat]

@Peat - I do get what you're driving at. Here's to hoping because they are stuck with him (JJ) at least for a bit.

Though that's also kind of a double edged sword. Say they increase his value a bit through acceptable play and are thus afforded an opportunity to pawn him off on some sucker. Do they actually take it or convince themselves he's "rehabilitated?"

I hope that they are smart enough to spot the jig is up with paying the defence so much once Murray gets paid and that they take such opportunity regardless of what they think of Johnson, but the possibility of them going all silly and keeping him is horrifyingly feasible for sure.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

By the way, I don't think anyone really disagrees with what Johnson is at this point. I think the big disagreement comes from how big of an impact one player can have on a team. The Penguins ended up a WC team last year with an incompetent 2nd line, a 3rd line that went long stretches without scoring, a 4th line anchored by a 100 year old man and a center who couldn't play wing, a 2nd pair that missed Schultz for 60 games (and Schultz being horrendous when he returned) and was saddled by JJ and a 3rd pair that alternated struggling young players throughout the year. Take JJ out of that equation and the rest still applies, getting rid of him isn't this magic bullet that somehow makes the team dramatically better.

If the Penguins are struggling for a playoff spot, it will probably be due to a combination of 3 or 4 of Malkin and Galchenyuk don't click, the bottom-6 can't score, Letang or Pettersson takes a step back (that really hurts their defense if either of those two struggles), Johnson and Gudbranson suck, Murray gets injured/struggles or stuff like that.

Regardless of how you and some others want to paint it... everyone knows that the roster has flaws. Every roster has flaws. I'll acknowledge all day every day that you can't pin all of your problems on one guy. It's like blaming the goaltender after simply glancing at a box score. But some are more destructive than others. You take an already... weird... defensive makeup, take one bad injury and stick a guy like JJ further up the lineup than you want nearly all year and that is gonna cause some big problems. It DID cause some big problems. All the numbers bear that out. The eye test bears that out. JJ is a replacement level defenseman playing way too many minutes behind some pretty important players that he cannot help support. This really isn't even debatable. And if it seems like there is extra vitriol and hang-wringing about all this then you are right! Because almost everyone knew it was a huge goddamned unnecessary boondoggle from the word go.

I'm really not trying to be shitty here. But nobody thinks that JJ = all the team's problems. But he is a massive fly in the ointment (and overpaid and a roadblock to others) and if you don't think he has the ability to make some difference in the point standings in a historically super tight division then I suppose I just don't agree and never will.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

No he wouldn't be playing 19 minutes a night, he'd be used similarly to how he was used in the playoffs last year.

That's a very confident projection based on a miniscule sample size, which is something of a trend.

No he wouldn't. If the Penguins are struggling to make the playoffs, it's going to be a lot more than "Jack Johnson is on the Penguins". I genuinely think people blame JJ for all of the Penguins problems because they don't want to accept the rest of the roster is flawed.

It's 6 points. JJ can make that sort of difference if he's used like he was last year.

Despite your conviction that it simply can't happen based on 3 games, it could.

No it wasn't, at least not all of them. The only pair they had that was legitimately a mess was Johnson-Schultz, the rest of their pairs were just mediocre.

"Mess" and "mediocre" are subjective terms. None of them were good.

Let's conveniently not mention the fact that Crosby played with Letang for a huge majority of his time. Yep, that's not a factor worth mentioning or anything.

Johnson hurts the Penguins, but you're severely overstating the impact one player can have on a team.

It's a factor. It's also a stark contrast regardless.

Johnson is as much of a liability as any player in the league, yet the Pens rode him into the dirt last year. Until they show some discretion with him for more than literally a 3 game playoff sample size, I'll remain skeptical that they'll limit his minutes and role.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Too bad JJ can't do mental exercises, because him becoming more in shape isn't going to help him

Dude already has the build of a football linebacker, physical talents or fitness have never been a problem with him.

Apparently he’s losing weight, but pretty much.

 

[Peat]

Other tidbits from the Yohe article:

- Despite what Gentleman Jim said, many in the org think Chucky will be on Malkin's Left, not Right
- Pens see Kahun as being like Rust in his ability to play everywhere
- Guentzel's exact role on the 1st PP is the interesting part
- Puts Bellerive under C for future but not Lafferty

 

[Andy99]

I hope that they are smart enough to spot the jig is up with paying the defence so much once Murray gets paid and that they take such opportunity regardless of what they think of Johnson, but the possibility of them going all silly and keeping him is horrifyingly feasible for sure.

Yep...it doesn’t matter what they do before the season starts but two of JJ, Guds and Schultz have to be gone before July 1 so JR needs to be on this all year with the D...

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Other tidbits from the Yohe article:

- Despite what Gentleman Jim said, many in the org think Chucky will be on Malkin's Left, not Right
- Pens see Kahun as being like Rust in his ability to play everywhere
- Guentzel's exact role on the 1st PP is the interesting part
- Puts Bellerive under C for future but not Lafferty

I feel like Rust is such a goner after reading that article. Bunch of little clues to it.

 

[K Fleur]

Murray should be terrified of the possible players that will be thrown into him as a result of Johnson feverishly working out.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I feel like Rust is such a goner after reading that article. Bunch of little clues to it.

Yeah good catch. I was about to say something similar. Seems like that's how they are leaning which... eh. Unfortunate.

 

[Peat]

I feel like Rust is such a goner after reading that article. Bunch of little clues to it.

Yeah good catch. I was about to say something similar. Seems like that's how they are leaning which... eh. Unfortunate.

Yeah... but I've been thinking that after every other article for about a year, and he's still here, and the rumours have been more about Bjugstad and Johnson this off-season.

I think it might be time to consider whether the Pens just want to be really, really strong on the wings this year, and them loading up there doesn't say that much about Rust.

Yep...it doesn’t matter what they do before the season starts but two of JJ, Guds and Schultz have to be gone before July 1 so JR needs to be on this all year with the D...

And one of them almost definitely has to be Johnson, as finding 2 good RD in one summer would be a giant pita.


edit: p.s. Just seen that Kingerski says a source told him to expect Chucky on Sid's RW. I, uhm, will be believing that one when I see it.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

Hmm, perhaps Rust to the Kings or Wild for picks could solve the cap issue.

Rust to LA for some picks
Sign Pettersson @ about $3.12M for 3 or 4 years
Send Trotman to WBS
Call up Angello to PIT (no reason other than he's the most expensive WBS forward)

Pens are then at a cap of $81.4M with around $100k in space

Guentzel-Crosby-Kahun
McCann-Malkin-Galchenyuk
Simon-Bjugstad-Hornqvist
Tanev-Blueger-ZAR
Angello

Dumoulin-Letang
Pettersson-Schultz
Riikola-Gudbranson
Johnson-Ruhwedel

Murray-DeSmith

 

[Bingo71]

ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED?!?!?!

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I'm a little mixed on Gooch being held off the first unit. On one hand his fit there is questionable at best and it's tough pulling both Guentzel and Hornqvist off in favor of him... really that might be a hell of an understatement considering Gooch hasn't exactly been super great his last couple of seasons and is a newcomer here. On top of all that, it would be nice having a guy with a big shot on the second unit.

But is it also crazy of me to think that maybe not playing him on the top unit is sort of neutering one of his biggest assets to the team?

 

[K Fleur]

I'm a little mixed on Gooch being held off the first unit. On one hand his fit there is questionable at best and it's tough pulling both Guentzel and Hornqvist off in favor of him... really that might be a hell of an understatement considering Gooch hasn't exactly been super great his last couple of seasons and is a newcomer here. On top of all that, it would be nice having a guy with a big shot on the second unit.

But is it also crazy of me to think that maybe not playing him on the top unit is sort of neutering one of his biggest assets to the team?

No definitely not crazy. The way this Galchenyuk experiment goes best is if he gets a lot of PP time and Malkin carries him at ES.

 

[sauce66871]

Hmm, perhaps Rust to the Kings or Wild for picks could solve the cap issue.

Billy G. just got tagged as the newest Wild GM... Rusty and JJ to Minny rumors coming back?!