Prospect Info: Pick #78 - Shayne Gostisbehere, Defenseman, Union College (NCAA)

[deadhead]

I think Ghost isn't going to turn it around until next season, because a lot of it comes down to a commitment to getting stronger and more explosive this offseason - at 23 he's not going to make a huge jump - but we've seen lots of players make that commitment and take a step up. Otherwise he's likely to be "luckier" next year, but he still has to be more focused on the ice, stop trying to "college" NHL players and realize the windows are smaller at this level. In some ways his season reminds me of NFL QBs who start hot, then the league studies film, they anticipate his throws, and he has to spend those long hours in the film room learning defenses instead of relying just on his raw talent. Some make the adjustment and become stars, some don't and become backups.

Konecny is similar, except that I think he can get stronger, he's fiesty but at 19 just doesn't have a NHL body yet, the will is there, but a lot of times he looks like a freakin' pinball, bouncing off people. Otherwise, he has to learn not to "juniors" NHL players, stop making horizontal passes, learn to anticipate forecheckers, learn when you can squeeze by or just have to take the safe dump. He's admitted he tries to do too much, when you're a star at 18, it's easy to fall in love with sexy moves, but in the NHL they often end up with the puck being stripped and the play moving the opposite direction.

I haven't given up on either player, but I also don't think it's the end of the world if they take a smaller role until they show the discipline to earn them more ice time - it's not a matter of "fairness," it's a matter of bringing young players along.

With veterans, bad habits at some point are ingrained, and you don't develop them as players. I'm not sure how you get to MDZ other than by using a 2x4. So you replace them. Unfortunately, we'll have to wait until the trade deadline/summer for that to happen.

 

[deadhead]

But if that was true, why did he look good in the summer and lead all Dmen in PPG and points in the World Cup of Hockey?

Who knows?
My suspicion is he may have been in better shape relative to his peers because he had been rehabbing, and in a short series you can "pump it up."
But the NHL season is a grind so it reveals your underlying strength and conditioning.

I'd like to see some gifs of him last year v this year side by side, because he sure looked quicker and more explosive last year, he'd still struggle with more pressure this year, but if he was more explosive, a lot of teams would be wary of those dekes he pulled off on a regular basis last season to beat his man and attack the net.

 

[Striiker]

I've never seen so many words used to say so little.

 

[Magua]

Interesting quote from Hextall I just read on a CSN article:

“When your team has the puck a lot, you don’t defend near as much,” he said. “We seemed to have the puck more last year when he was on the ice, and don’t have it as much this year, so there are a lot of contributing factors to it. And we can’t forget he’s played some good games. He’s done some good things, and some things need to get better. That’s the same with Konecny or whoever the next young kid is.”

Say what you want about Ghost's tough season, but that is just not true at all. It's the complete opposite. All his puck possession metrics have improved substantially this season compared to last, and the team has the puck MORE. It does make you ponder how much they actually look at analytics to say something like this. Hextall could have put it many different ways to talk about Ghost's troubles, but he chose to say that.....it just caught me by surprise.

 

[Curufinwe]

There's a four minute interview with Hextall on the Flyers site. The short version is - the kids will be fine, don't worry about it and trust the process.

 

[Rebels57]

Interesting quote from Hextall I just read on a CSN article:



Say what you want about Ghost's tough season, but that is just not true at all. It's the complete opposite. All his puck possession metrics have improved substantially this season compared to last, and the team has the puck MORE. It does make you ponder how much they actually look at analytics to say something like this. Hextall could have put it many different ways to talk about Ghost's troubles, but he chose to say that.....it just caught me by surprise.

I honestly dont think they use analytics even a little bit.

 

[deadhead]

Or Hextall's just being nice, maybe what he really wanted to say:

"The stupid kid is lucky as hell I'm not in goal anymore, if he hung me out to dry with some of those stupid passes I'd have carved my initials into his back! He's gonna want to come to me in a year with some big numbers, well first stop crying, get your act together, deal with adversity, stop screwing up and don't ***** to me about being benched."

I think people forget the kind of player Hextall was, definitely one of the dirtiest goalies ever, and I suspect he hasn't mellowed out that much, still has the intensity, just a lot more discrete these days. Of course he doesn't have that big stick to use on people anymore!

 

[Magua]

I honestly dont think they use analytics even a little bit.

Then the Flyers's "Manager of Hockey Analytics" (and Jethro Tull member), Ian Anderson, better make one good cup of joe.

I don't think the Flyers are on the cutting edge of analytics in the hockey world, but they definitely do use them -- and have talked about them before -- probably to an average degree relative to other teams, not that that says much when the hockey world has been slow on that front as a whole. Hextall did hint at his puck luck doing a 180 from last year in an earlier quote, but that statement about having the puck less is not true, and I can't believe that isn't something their internal stats show, unless they are ignored. If that IS something their internal stats show.......well, Ian Anderson best go back to playing the flute.

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

Then the Flyers's "Manager of Hockey Analytics" (and Jethro Tull member), Ian Anderson, better make one good cup of joe.

I don't think the Flyers are on the cutting edge of analytics in the hockey world, but they definitely do use them -- and have talked about them before -- probably to an average degree relative to other teams, not that that says much when the hockey world has been slow on that front as a whole. Hextall did hint at his puck luck doing a 180 from last year in an earlier quote, but that statement about having the puck less is not true, and I can't believe that isn't something their internal stats show, unless they are ignored. If that IS something their internal stats show.......well, Ian Anderson best go back to playing the flute.

Maybe that is why Hakstok is able to keep such an even keel - all the soothing flute music.
Or maybe Ghost or Konecny told too many "This one time at band camp" jokes and Anderson had a word in Dave's ear about it.

The plot thickens ...

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

hris Pronger played his final three NHL seasons in Philadelphia, leading the Flyers to the 2010 Stanley Cup Final in his first with the orange and black.

He preached patience on Thursday — a tune that would likely resonate with Hakstol, Gostisbehere and Konecny.

“I think with how the game is played and how it’s evolved, I think it’s patience,” Pronger said. “It’s understanding the schedule, the process of getting your team better with each and every game, being patient with results. And ultimately it’s building each and every game on top of one another and getting that full buy-in from the group.”

Supporting the coach’s motives plays a part.

“We used to laugh — we used to say the coaches actually speak a different language,” Pronger said, “and when he left, here’s what the interpretation was.”

http://www.csnphilly.com/philadelph...ains-offer-fitting-advice-flyers-benching-day

 

[BillDineen]

Flyers use analytics. Further, services like http://sportlogiq.com/ use machine learning to track actually possession, not proxies like Corsi. (Machine learning is what Tesla's use to identify the road and surroundings).

 

[tymed]

Flyers use analytics. Further, services like http://sportlogiq.com/ use machine learning to track actually possession, not proxies like Corsi. (Machine learning is what Tesla's use to identify the road and surroundings).

Sweet post. Thanks for the link, that looks pretty fun.

 

[Magua]

Flyers use analytics. Further, services like http://sportlogiq.com/ use machine learning to track actually possession, not proxies like Corsi. (Machine learning is what Tesla's use to identify the road and surroundings).

We have no idea how far down the rabbit hole the Flyers go in analytics or if they even use such a service. I'd still wager not very far, even if we know they place some value in them. Their department isn't that large, and they seem to value it, as they've said prior, as a small part of the pie. I'm very skeptical they are an aggressive organization in that front. Fwiw the things they describe as tracking are available elsewhere as public knowledge (they don't release info obviously). It's just not as efficient. They're still largely tracking the same stuff everyone else is. .

We don't know if Ghost does indeed have less puck time individually or team based (though it's hard for me to imagine so generating 6 more Corsi events for and 3 less against than last year). He's allowing more actual shots against than last year though searching for anything in that area...is that what Hextall means? We don't really know because what he meant is vague.

And actual raw time data is interesting to see what jibes, but truth be told, it's probably less interesting than actual shot and scoring chance events and in general event tracking. You can have the puck and not create actual events; and you can implode in your own end in a heartbeat (kind of sounds like the Flyers, eh). I actually imagine the Flyers possess the puck a lot time wise with their low high system and forechecking strategies. And you can call shots a proxie, but it's what the end goal of possession actually is. Ultimately, if a team is mildly skeptical about possession stats, why they'd be more interested in just time data I do not know. It's even less descriptive and illuminating and less results based -- and hockey people are always results based. It's just lower on the food chain stats wise.

 

[BillDineen]

Some corsi events are not necessarily positive indicators. Blocked and missed shots that lead to immediate possession for the other team for instance. Also, passes into high percentage areas are as relevant as missed and blocked shots, but not measured by public data.

Ian Anderson has a recent MS in Predictive Analytics from Northwestern, so he is certainly aware of what is possible. Anyone can take similar courses on Edx or Coursera to understand what is possible beyond simple Corsi analysis done by enthusiasts online.

Even Homer mentioned that the Flyers kept their own statistics years ago. Hextall mentioning possession is a first for me, but Hak is always mentioning all-shots (Corsi). I do not know how advanced the Flyers are, but it certainly doesn't take much to be up to speed especially when there are outside services available like the one I linked to.

 

[BillDineen]

We have no idea how far down the rabbit hole the Flyers go in analytics or if they even use such a service. I'd still wager not very far, even if we know they place some value in them. Their department isn't that large, and they seem to value it, as they've said prior, as a small part of the pie. I'm very skeptical they are an aggressive organization in that front. Fwiw the things they describe as tracking are available elsewhere.

We don't know if Ghost does indeed have less puck time individually or team based (though it's hard for me to imagine so generating 6 more Corsi events for and 3 less against than last year). He's allowing more actual shots against than last year though searching for anything in that area...is that what Hextall means? We don't really know because what he meant is vague.

And actual raw time data is interesting to see what jibes, but truth be told, it's probably less interesting than actual shot and scoring chance events and in general event tracking. You can have the puck and not create actual events; and you can implode in your own end in a heartbeat (kind of sounds like the Flyers, eh). I actually imagine the Flyers possess the puck a lot time wise with their low high system and forechecking strategies. And you can call shots a proxie, but it's what the end goal of possession actually is. Ultimately, if a team is mildly skeptical about possession stats, why they'd be more interested in just time data I do not know. It's even less descriptive and illuminating and less results based -- and hockey people are always results based. It's just lower on the food chain stats wise.

That describes the PEB line. An endless cycle to nothing.

 

[Magua]

Some corsi events are not necessarily positive indicators. Blocked and missed shots that lead to immediate possession for the other team for instance. Also, passes into high percentage areas are as relevant as missed and blocked shots, but not measured by public data.

Ian Anderson has a recent MS in Predictive Analytics from Northwestern, so he is certainly aware of what is possible. Anyone can take similar courses on Edx or Coursera to understand what is possible beyond simple Corsi analysis done by enthusiasts online.

Even Homer mentioned that the Flyers kept their own statistics years ago. Hextall mentioning possession is a first for me, but Hak is always mentioning all-shots (Corsi). I do not know how advanced the Flyers are, but it certainly doesn't take much to be up to speed especially when there are outside services available like the one I linked to.

I know the limitations and simplicity of Corsi. Which is why we break down everything in every zone to yield a fuller picture. Which sites like that do for clients....or sites that are available to the public who collect the same basic data tracking.

My point was though that if teams are barely on board with stats like that, why they'd value just raw possession time doesn't make sense to me either. Hockey people, at least old school types, are just results based as evaluators. If they don't care about being outshot, which is a tangible result, they won't care about losing time spent on the puck either. "We kept them outside yada yada yada." Like I said, it's interesting to see the disconnects between say high puck time and little shot generation to make determinations, but time is even less descriptive and indicative of processes.

The Flyers in general make too many questionable analytics decisions (though they're far from the worst) for me to believe they heavily inform decisions with it. I really don't know what they do. It was said recently that they heavily weigh scoring chances and inform the players about it. But the team has some of the worst scoring chance numbers in the league.

 

[Flyers Time]

i miss the old ghost
the cool ghost
the scores alot of goals ghost
the fast ghost
the confidence ghost
the point streak record breaking ghost
not this new ghost
this broken ghost
this confidence shattered newb ghost
I hate you Hakstol

 

[Rebels57]

i miss the old ghost
the cool ghost
the scores alot of goals ghost
the fast ghost
the confidence ghost
the point streak record breaking ghost
not this new ghost
this broken ghost
this confidence shattered newb ghost
I hate you Hakstol

 

[bauer]

i miss the old ghost
the cool ghost
the scores alot of goals ghost
the fast ghost
the confidence ghost
the point streak record breaking ghost
not this new ghost
this broken ghost
this confidence shattered newb ghost
I hate you Hakstol

 

[1865]

Confidence will be rock bottom now too. Good job everyone.

 

[GKJ]

A lot of what Hextall is saying is right. But also don't forget last year he said that Ghost was probably going to go back to the Phantoms had he not gotten that an assist against the Hurricanes in November (Simmonds had scored to tie the game). That was Ghost's first game. One event changed usurped a process and edict of patience, and thus his and the team's season.

 

[deadhead]

What is this "confidence" mantra?

Yes, players can get down on themselves, but those are the kind of players you never want in key roles, leaders in any sport have to have the kind of ego that protects them from self-doubt (but hopefully not from self-criticism). Now coaches have to nurse a lockerroom of divergent personalities, but the guys you have to coddle are also the guys you want to protect - and they're not keystone players.

I think with players like Ghost, confidence isn't the issue, but adjusting from being able to out "athlete" everyone on ice to playing in a league where players are bigger and faster, and mastering fundamentals and learning patience is the key to success - the same applies to Konency. Laughton was one of the highest scoring forwards 5x5 last year yet he's back in the AHL because he never mastered the basics of playing forward.

In a sense Ghost having great early success may have set him back, because it removed the urgency to refine his game. Kimmo didn't break out as an offense player until his 4th season at age 26, his first few years he was more of a defensive defensemen, mastering the basics, then opening up his game as he got more opportunities. This is why Hextall wants these kids in the AHL, and why Sanheim started playing mostly defense, instead of being put on the PP - they know Sanheim can score, they want to teach him to play defense and clear his own zone.

 

[Beef Invictus]

If a player is convinced one mistake will prevent them from playing, how do you think they'll play?

 

[Striiker]

If a player is convinced one mistake will prevent them from playing, how do you think they'll play?

He'll question himself and his decisons, he'll hesitate, and that will lead to more mistakes.

More mistakes lead to more sitting.

More sitting leads to less confidence in himself.

Less confidence in himself leads to worse play.

It's a really simple concept that I didn't think was even up for debate... I thought everyone understood it.

 

[Hiesenberg]

Might be scratched again.

Because the team is playing so well without him. lol