OT: Philadelphia Eagles (NFL): Draft Month (First Round - April 29th)

[FatTugboatFlahr]

Howie not getting any true value for Ertz is possibly my biggest Howie-Is-A-Moron moment.

It’s a page straight out of the Cuck Flart manual.

 

[Chinatown88]

OgundejiD has to be a typo.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Seeing Jamin Davis in the back half of the first round in some mocks makes me sad. Such a fantastic name.

I might be crazy but I think I like Cox better. Harder to say for sure without the testing numbers.

 

[sa cyred]

Caplan's reliable and this makes total sense. I think the question left is whether it's for a 2021 or 2022 pick.

This is such a weird draft with the smaller class and comp picks. I wonder if some teams will try to swap out of the later rounds.

They’re going to trade Zach Ertz. And it’s going to be — the way that I’ve said this in the live stream, there are personnel people around the league who think that Ertz will be traded no later than early in the draft. Like, when I say early, it certainly could happen — the way I heard it — there’s a very realistic chance it actually happens on the lead-up. Because you don’t want to wait until teams on the board … and, I know it’s not a great tight end draft. But what if you’re taking to a team that likes [Pat] Freiermuth, you’re not going to know that. Let’s say you’re talking to a team, you’re Howie Roseman, the GM, and you’re talking to a team, you don’t know who they like at tight end. So, God forbid you wait, and the team fills a need, then you’re out of luck. He’s played it right in that he’s waited as far as he could. It’s going to happen and there are some teams I’ve talked to — I don’t know who they talked to with the Eagles, but they seem to think he’s going to go … it could be, very realistically, today’s Monday? It could happen Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday leading up. It could happen. But it’s going to happen by the end of the draft for sure.

From the pod

From most accounts, people are expecting next year's draft to be "better" since there were some good players, due to covid rules, decided to stay one more year. I think next years picks will have abit more prime.

 

[deadhead]

I used to have this take when I thought it was just that you can get comparable talents later. Once I saw the numbers of how they basically don’t matter at all except as a receiver, I realized it’s an indictment of your whole approach. Those are very different statements.

Please be clear that I’m saying the RB doesn’t matter, not that the Running game doesn’t. It’s scheme and OL-driven.

I'd say most RBs are fungible, but not top running backs, by that I don't mean the big yardage guys, but the guys who can stay on the field for 3 downs and do the little things (blitz pickup, catch out of the backfield and create YAC). If you just want a between the tackles runner, get one in the middle rounds. But backs who can both run and catch the ball make your offense less predictable.

 

[deadhead]

Howie not getting any true value for Ertz is possibly my biggest Howie-Is-A-Moron moment.

It’s a page straight out of the Cuck Flart manual.

What is true value? Howie's got a great track record of extracting value, but a 30 year old TE coming off an offseason with a substantial contract isn't exactly a prime trade asset.

 

[Chinatown88]

I might be crazy but I think I like Cox better. Harder to say for sure without the testing numbers.

Can we has both?

 

[deadhead]

Caplan's reliable and this makes total sense. I think the question left is whether it's for a 2021 or 2022 pick.

This is such a weird draft with the smaller class and comp picks. I wonder if some teams will try to swap out of the later rounds.

This is a draft where good scouting will really pay off, it's a lot tougher to do your homework, and researching intangibles will be more important than usual, because you're going to do more projecting than usual.

I might take advantage of teams that are leery of 3rd day players this year and load up on "lottery tickets," since there won't be as many viable UDFAs this season, those 6th and 7th rd picks have more value to a team that's good at scouting, because they'll allow you to target players flying under the radar due to COVID schedule screwups and injuries. While 2022 picks have more value due to a deeper talent pool and more information, this may result in 2021 3rd day picks being undervalued. There are always players on your board that fall unexpectedly, and having the ammunition this year to target them is a key to a good draft - because you're unlikely to get much from UDFAs.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

Howie not getting any true value for Ertz is possibly my biggest Howie-Is-A-Moron moment.

It’s a page straight out of the Cuck Flart manual.

I feel like you don't really ever get good value for players in the NFL unless they are QBs or something like a young player that wants out of a situation. If you are expecting a 30 year old tight end coming off probably the worst year of his career (plus an injury) to bring some big return, I think you are going to be sorely mistaken. 2-3 years ago we are talking about a different story. This year though I would be surprised if anyone would give up more than a third rounder for him. And put yourself in the other team's shoes. Are you going to give up a lot for a 30 year old tight end coming off his worst season. As much as we love Ertz, he is not on the same level as Travis Kelce and probably only had 1-2 seasons that you could even argue are at the same level as a guy like Kelce. He's very much that second tier TE at best and on the downside of his career. What would you expect to get for him?

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

I think the first pick has to be CB or OL (unless someone big falls). Surtain, Horn, Sewell, Slater, Darrisaw have to be where they are looking. Maybe Waddle if he's there. Smith sounds like he is just too small. LB or DE I don't think are going to have the impact in terms of building blocks moving forward.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I'd say most RBs are fungible, but not top running backs, by that I don't mean the big yardage guys, but the guys who can stay on the field for 3 downs and do the little things (blitz pickup, catch out of the backfield and create YAC). If you just want a between the tackles runner, get one in the middle rounds. But backs who can both run and catch the ball make your offense less predictable.

The problem with this approach is that so many runs are actually options now. Whether it's an RPO or a Read Option or a pre-snap adjustment, the only players worth a draft pick are the ones that can catch the ball and gain you YAC on top. That's the big thing. Running the ball is the little thing now. I'm not sure blitz pickup is even a small thing anymore. You don't have to be great, but you have to be passable or downright special in other ways.

Sure, you can get a Henry once a decade, but most of the time you end up utilizing that weapon by running the ball more than you should and miss the forest for the trees.

 

[Chinatown88]

Spoiler: My Completely Professional No Clue Mock

But Howie gonna Howie.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Fun fact: DeVonta Smith has a 6'6+ wingspan which is longer than any receiver projected to go in the top 100. It definitely shows up on the field.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Spoiler: My Completely Professional No Clue Mock

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But Howie gonna Howie.

If you can guarantee me Elijah Moore and Jabril Cox in the 2nd, I'm not sure I could have any complaints about the whole draft.

I like Marshall too. Hope he's healthy.

 

[sa cyred]

 

[JojoTheWhale]

It's not happening, but if Howie comes out of 6 with Fields and a 2022 1st, I may combust with joy.

It could also just part of the ploy for a move down, which I would also probably love.

 

[BrindamoursNose]

It's not happening, but if Howie comes out of 6 with Fields and a 2022 1st, I may combust with joy.

It could also just part of the ploy for a move down, which I would also probably love.

This draft could certainly win some favor for Howie. I have faith.

I mean, it can't get any worse I guess eh. He's hated by nearly everyone. So let's throw some dice!

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

Sean Lee finally retired, thank almighty f***.

 

[CanadianFlyer88]

I know people who have 6 figures on the pick at 3 because of all of this creating wild margins in the span of a day. I think you're going to see some real anger no matter what.

You hang in some interesting circles.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

You hang in some interesting circles.

Man of the people, amirite?

 

[JojoTheWhale]

You hang in some interesting circles.

Some people bet to make a living. It's a completely different mindset. Believe me, I wasn't cut out for it. I'm in complete agreement with you.

But movement creates edges. All three of those people I was referring to have bits and pieces of 3 or 4 QBs to SF at 3 because the lines have moved ridiculous amounts. This makes them priced in to hedge and the next thing you know, you've got the down payment for a house on a draft pick. But you're 95%+ likely to make 20-40% profit. You just have to not die from the stress and be able to absorb the losses.

 

[Magua]

Of course I'm pretty solidly in the trade down again and take a Northwestern Corner camp, so I'm probably pretty alone there.

 

[deadhead]

The problem with this approach is that so many runs are actually options now. Whether it's an RPO or a Read Option or a pre-snap adjustment, the only players worth a draft pick are the ones that can catch the ball and gain you YAC on top. That's the big thing. Running the ball is the little thing now. I'm not sure blitz pickup is even a small thing anymore. You don't have to be great, but you have to be passable or downright special in other ways.

Sure, you can get a Henry once a decade, but most of the time you end up utilizing that weapon by running the ball more than you should and miss the forest for the trees.

Except if Sirianni is going to implement some form of the Indy offense, it's going to be more similar to prime AR than these newfangled gimmick offenses. And if you're serious about developing Hurts, you don't want a lot of RPO and other plays because he needs to learn to walk, i.e., pass out of the pocket, before he runs (takes advantage of his legs with designed plays). So you want RBs who can run draws and pass block and catch out of the backfield so you can go one back as your base offense (1-2-2 or 1-3-1).

Now I wouldn't take an explosive but limited back at #37, them are "tinker toys," but if I can land a 3 down back, it's much like a 3 down LB, it simplifies things and allows you to use more limited players around him. Difference between say Harris and the guys in the 4th-5th rounds is the later will be functional, but not capable of making big plays along with little plays. Sanders is a big play guy, but he's really not a base offense guy until he improves his pass blocking (and his hands). Scott is a nice change of pace but gets overwhelmed by blitzers.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

The TE class does stink. Maybe need forces someone in there but Pitts is probably the only one worthy of a first round selection & Friermeuth of a second round selection. There’s some notable separation between those two then there’s even more separation when you get to that #3 TE.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Except if Sirianni is going to implement some form of the Indy offense, it's going to be more similar to prime AR than these newfangled gimmick offenses. And if you're serious about developing Hurts, you don't want a lot of RPO and other plays because he needs to learn to walk, i.e., pass out of the pocket, before he runs (takes advantage of his legs with designed plays). So you want RBs who can run draws and pass block and catch out of the backfield so you can go one back as your base offense (1-2-2 or 1-3-1).

Now I wouldn't take an explosive but limited back at #37, them are "tinker toys," but if I can land a 3 down back, it's much like a 3 down LB, it simplifies things and allows you to use more limited players around him. Difference between say Harris and the guys in the 4th-5th rounds is the later will be functional, but not capable of making big plays along with little plays. Sanders is a big play guy, but he's really not a base offense guy until he improves his pass blocking (and his hands). Scott is a nice change of pace but gets overwhelmed by blitzers.

The Colts ran tons of RPOs with Sirianni as the OC in 2018. Then it faded. The Colts didn't run many Screen until 2020 and that was generally credited to the influence of Chris Strausser, their OL Coach. It's really difficult to suss out what I expect it to look like because the Colts were very different from year to year.

When Reich left Philadelphia, the Eagles went from a varied approach to more of an Outside Zone scheme. That makes it extra tough for me to pull out which bits were Reich and which were Sirianni because I already associate these things with Reich. The Colts ran Inside Zone, Outside Zone, Stretch, and basically everything else you could dream up. I would say that have a mobile, varied, athletic OL is absolutely mandatory for these purposes. The Colts would even run Outside Zone out of a Split backfield. You just don't see that very much.

I would say that the constants were 12 Personnel being leveraged to free up WRs in space in the MOF, designed touches to YAC players of all sorts, and gadget players being valued. You're going to see tons of Daggers as Zone beaters. You've got to be able to make deep MOF throws because Sirianni is going to get them open. Hell, the Colts were top 5 in the league in 13 Personnel Snap%.