So, for sure this is probably an overpayment. With that, if he can be a 20 goal/55 point guy for all or most of this contract, it is going to look fine in a few years.
I do understand the seemingly consensus knee-jerk reaction that this is a big time overpayment in term/cap hit, but I think this is going to be going rate for a decent 2C going forward.
I saw a tweet that he is now the 18th highets paid C in the NHL according to AAV. He is far from the 18th best C. Understandable to gripe about that. By time he is 2 or 3 full years into this deal, though, I find it hard to imagine he is in the top 30 highest paid. By time this deal is in years 5-7, it's possible he's not in the top 50 the way salaries are escalating.
So, overall definitely an overpayment for a player who I think is more hype than value, but this isn't massively egregious like some have suggested, especially if he can be a 20/3/50+ guy for the length of this contract. Overpay but not grand larceny.
Yeah. It's sticker shock on such an eye-popping number for a #2C, but realistically it's probably only a million over what i would've figured the going rate for a desirable UFA 2nd line Center like Hayes is these days.
The other thing that i think is important in this deal, is that because Hayes is such a young UFA, this deal takes him less deep into his 30s than most typical UFAs. ie. You're going to get an extra prime year or two at the beginning, in place of a couple extra "dead weight" regrettable years in the mid-30s tacked on the end. I think that makes a difference.
Hypothetically it's like:
-Age 27-33 Seasons @ $7.14M.
vs
-Age 29-35 Seasons @ $6.14M.
With that in mind, and seeing so many deals where teams would
kill to get out from under those last couple dead weight years of various big ticket UFA contracts - i might actually be inclined to just buck up the extra million in cap hit for now, and take the Hayes deal...sticker shock and all. As the younger UFA, further from those dreaded mid-30s where most guys seem liable to fall off a cliff at any moment.