55 points would be a career high for Hayes, doubt he hits that regularly through this contract.
The simple reality of age in the NHL is that most players peak in their mid-to-late 20s, start declining in their late 20s, then decline much more rapidly trough their 30s. Hayes will be right around his 34th birthday when this contract ends, don’t be surprised if he’s substantially worse than he currently is for the last ~4 years of his contract.
He’s quite overpaid already, and most likely it’ll just get worse. Terrible contract, reminds me a lot of when the Leafs signed Clarkson.
I mean, that is factually true but he had 54 this year and missed 11 games, so he'd have hit ~60 if he played a full 82. It's possible you're right about Hayes beign a candidate for sharp decline, but I think the Clarkson comparison is a bit off base. Hayes was 2 years younger at the time of this extension than DC was when he signed big money in Toronto.
Clarkson was also a totally different player. Kevin Hayes is a big body, sure, but Clarkson is a guy who, from 2007-2008 through 12-13, right before going to TOR, was 27th int he NHL in hits and 11th in the NHL in fights. Had 470 NHL games under his belt when he signed as opposed to 421 for Hayes.
Essnetially I am just trying to point out that Clarkson obviously had much more wear and tear on his body when he signed for big money. Hayes has a MUCH greater chance at having longevity than Clarkson.
Still agree that this is an overpayment and a risky contract any way you slice it, but I don't ee Hayes regressing much over the next 3 years. Some regression could and likely will happen toward the end of the contract, but like I said, by years 5-7 of this contract, I would expect the cap ceiling to be $15-20M higher (or more) and you'll likely see UFA's who consistently produce at middle 6 C to be making even more than Hayes is now.
