Confirmed Signing with Link: [PHI] Kevin Hayes signs (7 Years, $7.14M AAV) Part II

[StoneHands]

this makes the Evander Kane contract look good

never thought i'd say that

Why? Hayes takes up 8.98% of the cap, Kane took up 9.33% when he signed. Both will be turning 34 when their contracts are done. Hayes plays a more important position while also being slightly more productive.

Hayes Last 3 years:
2019: 55 (41 at ES) points in 71 games
2018: 44 points (34 at ES) in 76 games
2017: 49 points (35 at ES) in 76 games
Hayes averaged 54 points (40 at ES) per 82 games

Kane 3 years prior to signing:
2018: 54 points (41 at ES) in 78 games
2017: 43 points (35 at ES) in 70 games
2016: 35 points (28 at ES) in 65 games
Kane averaged 51 points (40 es ES) per 82 games

 

[Its a Trap]

54 points in 71 games

Congrats to him on having his best season in a contract year. He’s still a player who’s averaged 45 1/2 points over his career and counts as 7.1 million against the cap.

 

[mashedpotato]

lol. For Kevin Hayes?

This is not a good contract.....

 

[Peacekeeper]

I hope Hayes reads this thread
(Also pt1)

 

[BudBundy]

Laughable. Absolutely laughable. GMs simply cannot help themselves. Early contender for worst contract in the league circa 2020.

 

[Frolov 6'3]

He is getting a upgrade in line mates. I think Voracek and JVR/Lindblom are an upgrade over Buchnevich and Vesey. We shall see. Only an overpay of around a million.

Problem is than this thread will be dead and buried or locked after a few posts.

Here we are only allowed to talk about futures.

 

[TruGr1t]

Gross. Have fun.

 

[Dooble08]

Problem is than this thread will be dead and buried or locked after a few posts.

Here we are only allowed to talk about futures.

The thread has already gone on over 1000 posts lol.

That's why no top prospects get dealt on here. Top prospects who haven't played a game>established NHL players.

 

[Cootsfanclub]

Congrats to him on having his best season in a contract year. He’s still a player who’s averaged 45 1/2 points over his career and counts as 7.1 million against the cap.

You know he has basically the same contract as Travis Zajac right?

 

[StoneHands]

You know he has basically the same contract as Travis Zajac right?

And Zajac has averaged 39 points a year over his career.

 

[ricky0034]

Why? Hayes takes up 8.98% of the cap, Kane took up 9.33% when he signed. Both will be turning 34 when their contracts are done. Hayes plays a more important position while also being slightly more productive.

Hayes Last 3 years:
2019: 55 (41 at ES) points in 71 games
2018: 44 points (34 at ES) in 76 games
2017: 49 points (35 at ES) in 76 games
Hayes averaged 54 points (40 at ES) per 82 games

Kane 3 years prior to signing:
2018: 54 points (41 at ES) in 78 games
2017: 43 points (35 at ES) in 70 games
2016: 35 points (28 at ES) in 65 games
Kane averaged 51 points (40 es ES) per 82 games

well for starters for those 3 years you singled out the average goals per game in the league is about 3.6% higher for the Hayes years as the Kane ones,that's a couple points a year right there

then there's also a pretty massive difference between playing on the 2016-18 Sabres and the 2017-19 Rangers

Buffalo finished 26th(out of 30 teams),26th(out of 30 teams),31st in goals scored those years compared to 4th(out of 30 teams),21st,22nd for the Rangers or a difference of 55,30,28 goals respectively

then the 3 year cutoff also ignores the 3 consecutive years Kane previously had as a ~55 point pace player

overall the Kane contract just looks better and better compared to this one the more you dig into it

 

[Cootsfanclub]

And Zajac has averaged 39 points a year over his career.

Devil fans were not complaining when the contract was signed. This is what free agents get.

 

[Curufinwe]

Laughable. Absolutely laughable. GMs simply cannot help themselves. Early contender for worst contract in the league circa 2020.

Is Lucic retiring?

 

[Byron Bitz]

Point is gonna get Huge money, I would say he’s worth about 4-5 million more than Hayes.

 

[StoneHands]

well for starters for those 3 years you singled out the average goals per game in the league is about 3.6% higher for the Hayes years as the Kane ones,that's a couple points a year right there

then there's also a pretty massive difference between playing on the 2016-18 Sabres and the 2017-19 Rangers

Buffalo finished 26th(out of 30 teams),26th(out of 30 teams),31st in goals scored those years compared to 4th(out of 30 teams),21st,22nd for the Rangers or a difference of 55,30,28 goals respectively

then the 3 year cutoff also ignores the 3 consecutive years Kane previously had as a ~55 point pace player

overall the Kane contract just looks better and better compared to this one the more you dig into it

That 3.6% accounts for 1.8 points so let's say Kane's adjusted points per year is 52, that's less than 54.

Obviously the Rangers are much better but one of Kane's most common linemates in Buffalo was Eichel. Not a bad deal.

I cut it off as 3 years because in my opinion the 3 years leading up to a contract are much more indicative of what the player will bring to the table than what they did 4, 5, or 6 years ago. Maybe I'm wrong, maybe GMs don't care about their play leading up to a contract and just focus on what they did 5-6 years ago.

Again, Kane took up more of the cap for less production while playing a less important position.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Why? Hayes takes up 8.98% of the cap, Kane took up 9.33% when he signed. Both will be turning 34 when their contracts are done. Hayes plays a more important position while also being slightly more productive.

Hayes Last 3 years:
2019: 55 (41 at ES) points in 71 games
2018: 44 points (34 at ES) in 76 games
2017: 49 points (35 at ES) in 76 games
Hayes averaged 54 points (40 at ES) per 82 games

Kane 3 years prior to signing:
2018: 54 points (41 at ES) in 78 games
2017: 43 points (35 at ES) in 70 games
2016: 35 points (28 at ES) in 65 games
Kane averaged 51 points (40 es ES) per 82 games

Kane was a considerably better goal scorer than Hayes. He was coming off seasons of 29 and 28 goals and he scored a good chunk of those goals at even strength.

Kane is also more physical and willing to drop the gloves and GMs tend to overpay for those things.

 

[Dooble08]

Kane was a considerably better goal scorer than Hayes. He was coming off seasons of 29 and 28 goals and he scored a good chunk of those goals at even strength.

Kane is also more physical and willing to drop the gloves and GMs tend to overpay for those things.

But also, like Wayne Simmonds, those players tend to drop off a cliff quicker.

 

[biturbo19]

So, for sure this is probably an overpayment. With that, if he can be a 20 goal/55 point guy for all or most of this contract, it is going to look fine in a few years.

I do understand the seemingly consensus knee-jerk reaction that this is a big time overpayment in term/cap hit, but I think this is going to be going rate for a decent 2C going forward.

I saw a tweet that he is now the 18th highets paid C in the NHL according to AAV. He is far from the 18th best C. Understandable to gripe about that. By time he is 2 or 3 full years into this deal, though, I find it hard to imagine he is in the top 30 highest paid. By time this deal is in years 5-7, it's possible he's not in the top 50 the way salaries are escalating.

So, overall definitely an overpayment for a player who I think is more hype than value, but this isn't massively egregious like some have suggested, especially if he can be a 20/3/50+ guy for the length of this contract. Overpay but not grand larceny.

Yeah. It's sticker shock on such an eye-popping number for a #2C, but realistically it's probably only a million over what i would've figured the going rate for a desirable UFA 2nd line Center like Hayes is these days.

The other thing that i think is important in this deal, is that because Hayes is such a young UFA, this deal takes him less deep into his 30s than most typical UFAs. ie. You're going to get an extra prime year or two at the beginning, in place of a couple extra "dead weight" regrettable years in the mid-30s tacked on the end. I think that makes a difference.

Hypothetically it's like:

-Age 27-33 Seasons @ $7.14M.

vs

-Age 29-35 Seasons @ $6.14M.


With that in mind, and seeing so many deals where teams would kill to get out from under those last couple dead weight years of various big ticket UFA contracts - i might actually be inclined to just buck up the extra million in cap hit for now, and take the Hayes deal...sticker shock and all. As the younger UFA, further from those dreaded mid-30s where most guys seem liable to fall off a cliff at any moment.

 

[Hockey4Lyfe]

Point is gonna get Huge money, I would say he’s worth about 4-5 million more than Hayes.

I’d guess that a handful of all the RFA young guys contracts just bumped up by a million.

All it takes is one stupid GM to cause chaos around the entire league.

 

[Satan]

People have very unrealistic expectations of UFA contracts. The yearly number isn't pretty at first glance but I'd say it is within reason to dish out.

 

[ImNeverWrong]

Seems like a lot of newbs who never heard of this player just came to go "zOmg 7 mILLiOn fOr WhO?"...well maybe if you watched hockey youd know who hayes is and that this contract is in accordance with the salary cap and the going rate for ufa 2Cs.

 

[Dooble08]

I’d guess that a handful of all the RFA young guys contracts just bumped up by a million.

All it takes is one stupid GM to cause chaos around the entire league.

Idk it looks like it all starts with Dubas then.

 

[SCP Guy]

I hope Hayes reads this thread
(Also pt1)

He's too busy Rolling around naked in his 50 shmil

 

[Flyotes]

Cap going up as initially reported (now, maybe going up less, oof) would help digest this a bit better. Going up a few times over the next few years would probably help bring it back into line with fan expectations.

 

[Curufinwe]

I’d guess that a handful of all the RFA young guys contracts just bumped up by a million.

All it takes is one stupid GM to cause chaos around the entire league.

Given that no big name RFA has signed yet this summer apart from Lindell who got 6 x $5.8m and a NMC, I'd guess they had already been bumped by Nylander and other big RFA deals.