Petterson or Dahlin?

[DownGoesMcDavid]

If all is equal and Dahlin became a Generational D and EP40 a franchise C then obviously you gotta take the Dman. Theyre on the ice longer and effect the game more than forwards.

In my biased opinion, i thnk EP40 will become the greatest Canuck to have ever worn the jersey. Even better than the Sedins or Bure.

Ive followed hockey since early 90s and ive never seen anyone do what EP40 is doing from their very 1st NHL game. EP40 IQ, skill and defensive reliabiliy sets him apart.

Finally i think what will set EP40 apart is his ability to make players around him better. Goldobin for example has 13 pts when EP was in the lineup and 2 pts when he wasnt.

What the heck is going to happen when he physically matures or "gets used" to play north american style of hockey.



I havent watched every Dahlin game and i havent missed an EP40 shift so like i said my opinion is swayed.

Sweden is definitely doing something right.

 

[Conspiracy Theorist]

Pettersson is back to human being so Dahlin has probably higher ceiling and fills a bigger need.

 

[DaBadGuy316]

If they both become franchise players at their positions I would take Dahlin at the more premium position.

 

[Ainec]

Pettersson is back to human being so Dahlin has probably higher ceiling and fills a bigger need.

don't worry, he will make Goldobin or Eriksson score next game

 

[AuraSphere]

#1 Franchise D are a lot harder to obtain than #1 Franchise C

 

[Ainec]

#1 Franchise D are a lot harder to obtain than #1 Franchise C

last 10 years only 1 team has won a cup with a 1st round homegrown #1 D, and it was the Kings with Doughty. And 1 team did not win with a "#1 franchise D" (Carolina)

point being, a #1 defenseman is hard to obtain but it is a lot more variance and luck based than a #1 center.

Keith, Lidstrom, Chara, Letang are all drafted outside the 1st round or in a trade/UFA signing (Pronger/Neids).

compare that with centers of the last 10 cup wins, and they are all homegrown 1st round picks.

 

[Regal]

So many people will say take the defenseman over the center in threads like this, then in top player rankings there's like 3 dmen in the top 20. I always prefer the center. It's easier to build a good defense with solid but not great defensemen who can move the puck well enough, supplemented by team structure than it is to build a good offense without elite offensive talent. As Ainec points out as well, acquiring high end defensemen tends to be easier either through trade or lower in the draft

 

[Jeremy2020]

Dahlin.

 

[93LEAFS]

last 10 years only 1 team has won a cup with a 1st round homegrown #1 D, and it was the Kings with Doughty. And 1 team did not win with a "#1 franchise D" (Carolina)

point being, a #1 defenseman is hard to obtain but it is a lot more variance and luck based than a #1 center.

Keith, Lidstrom, Chara, Letang are all drafted outside the 1st round or in a trade/UFA signing (Pronger/Neids).

compare that with centers of the last 10 cup wins, and they are all homegrown 1st round picks.

I think I agree with the point you are trying to make, but to clarify. They are both very hard to acquire. Centers are hard in the sense that almost all elite centers are acquired at the top of the draft, they are easier to identify, but since a disproportionate amount of them are drafted either 1st or 2nd overall, you have to be drafting there to get them. Whereas, franchise D are much harder to identify, but can be found with picks that all teams tend to possess over a 5 to 10-year cycle. I don't think its easier to acquire centers, although, I do think the path to acquire one is much easier to identify, but it requires being very bad and lotto luck in the right draft. Identifying Stamkos, Tavares, MacKinnon, McDavid, Eichel and Matthews wasn't hard, but being bad enough and then get the lotto luck to draft them (especially under the new rules), is not easy to do. Even if you know there is a McDavid at the top of the draft and design a team that losses 82 games, you still only have roughly a 20% chance.

I do think you are misusing the term homegrown though. I think you meant to say homegrown defender taken in the first round. Letang and Keith were both taken by the teams they won cups with. It also depends on how you classify Carlson. Who was a late 1st rounder, and is probably a franchise D-man at this point but I can see why people think he's fringe.

Earlier this summer I went through NHL.com's list of top 20 players at center and D, and broke it down. I didn't think NHL.com's list was perfect, but it was an effective proxy for a list because I couldn't randomly choose the players creating inherent bias. Here is my post from the time.

Hayton's scoring isn't great, but it wasn't crippling either. Especially when you know his usage. He got drafted a bit too high, but, finding quality centers outside the top 10 of the draft is a significant challenge. I'd also add, it wouldn't be fair to use those comparrisons for those 2, and then just cap Hayton at Horvat (if you are going to extremes atleast use Bergeron). Look at the NHL.com top 20 Centers (I'm just using that due to it being a recent, and a list that while placement can be argued, is probably close to an accurate unbiased representation of the top 20 centers in the league).

1: McDavid (1st Overall)
2: Crosby (1st Overall)
3: Malkin (2nd Overall)
4: Matthews (1st Overall)
5: MacKinnon (1st Overall)
6: Kopitar (11th Overall)
7: Scheifele (7th Overall)
8: Bergeron (45th Overall)
9: Seguin (2nd Overall)
10: Tavares (1st Overall)
11: Stamkos (1st Overall)
12: Kuznetsov (26th Overall)
13: Barkov (2nd Overall)
14: Backstrom (5th Overall)
15: Eichel (2nd Overall)
16: Barzal (16th Overall)
17: William Karlsson (53rd Overall)
18: Couturier (8th Overall)
19: Getzlaf (19th Overall)
20: Draisaitl (3rd Overall)

Now, that just shows how good centers are almost exclusively found at the top of the draft, in most cases, the very top. 50% of the list was drafted in the top 2, another 10% were taken between 3 and 5, another 10% between 6-10. So, about 70% of the leagues top centers were taken in the top 10, with 50% coming in the top 2 picks. We have 2 picks outside the 1st round. Kuznetsov was a top 10 talent who slipped based on being Russian at the height of the KHL scare and making his willingness to come over unclear. Compare this to any other positional list like D-men or wingers, and the breakdown would not be this extreme. Looking quickly at wingers 30% of the top 20 were taken outside the first round (compared to 10% of Centers) and significantly more were taken outside the top 10 in total (60% to 30%), obviously, the example of Kuznetsov applies to Kucherov and Tarasenko. Looking at defenders, its quite similar. With 35% of the defenders being drafted outside the first round (I will admit, the D list seems to be the biggest mess on first glance, but that doesn't mean it isn't representative). Outside of the top 10 is where 60% of the defenders were drafted.

Now, I think Kotkaniemi and Hayton were probably overdrafted. But, teams that are picking high, and don't think they will likely be picking high again, may be prone to reaching and taking a valid chance. Finding centers outside of the very top of the draft is extremely challenging, its the one position where finding good ones outside of the first round is extremely hard. Given forwards are easier to project, and the value attached to centers, it makes sense to occasionally slightly reach for them if your system is barren of them. I mean, league-wide how many legitimate top 60 centers are there who were taken past the first round? Off the top of my head, I got Stepen, Point, Tyler Johnson, Vincent Trochek, Krejci, and ROR.

 

[MayDay]

Don't see generational? Dahlin is on pace to score over 40 points as an 18-year-old defenseman. This feat is so unremarkable that it has been accomplished exactly twice in NHL history, once by Phil Housley and once by Bobby Orr. He's also a + possession player logging ~18.5 minutes per game (playing in the top 4, not being sheltered). Kid is going to be scary good in a couple of years.

Bears repeating.

People who haven’t been that impressed with Dahlin so far don’t quite grasp what he is managing to achieve as an 18 year old defenseman.

Pettersson will probably win the Calder this year (since it is an award biased towards forwards and scoring), but no question I’d rather have Dahlin for the long-term.

He is projecting to be a franchise D like the Sabres have never had in franchise history. He will be a dominant force within a couple years.

 

[pettersson]

Don't see generational? Dahlin is on pace to score over 40 points as an 18-year-old defenseman. This feat is so unremarkable that it has been accomplished exactly twice in NHL history, once by Phil Housley and once by Bobby Orr. He's also a + possession player logging ~18.5 minutes per game (playing in the top 4, not being sheltered). Kid is going to be scary good in a couple of years.

Didn't ekblad have 39 just a few yrs ago

 

[Speyer]

Petterson is probably a much more finished product than Dahlin right know. He might get a bit stronger as he ages but Dahlin has much more room to grow as defencemen usually don't get a 100% comfortable in the league until they are in their early 20s. Just look at guys like Hedman or Karlsson. So I would definitly take the defenceman.

 

[Kamiccolo]

I don't think people get how rare it is to see an 18 year old D play at the level Dahlin is in the NHl vs a what, 20 year old forward? This year it's easily Pettersson if he keeps up that scoring, but Pettersson is small. Even if he bulks up he is going to be a scoring forward, Dahlin is a franchise defensemen.

Dahlin easily for me. Can't wait to see him at 20.

 

[pettersson]

I don't think people get how rare it is to see an 18 year old D play at the level Dahlin is in the NHl vs a what, 20 year old forward? This year it's easily Pettersson if he keeps up that scoring, but Pettersson is small. Even if he bulks up he is going to be a scoring forward, Dahlin is a franchise defensemen.

Dahlin easily for me. Can't wait to see him at 20.

Curious, would you pick dahlin over Matthews?

 

[1972]

Dahlin is going to explode offensively once’s the reins come off.

 

[Ace of Hades]

I don't think people get how rare it is to see an 18 year old D play at the level Dahlin is in the NHl vs a what, 20 year old forward? This year it's easily Pettersson if he keeps up that scoring, but Pettersson is small. Even if he bulks up he is going to be a scoring forward, Dahlin is a franchise defensemen.

Dahlin easily for me. Can't wait to see him at 20.

Pettersson is also a franchise level forward.

 

[Binister]

Don't see generational? Dahlin is on pace to score over 40 points as an 18-year-old defenseman. This feat is so unremarkable that it has been accomplished exactly twice in NHL history, once by Phil Housley and once by Bobby Orr. He's also a + possession player logging ~18.5 minutes per game (playing in the top 4, not being sheltered). Kid is going to be scary good in a couple of years.

Is Heiskanen generational too even though he is already 19?

 

[talitintti]

Is Heiskanen generational too even though he is already 19?

Heiskanen isn't close to .5 ppg though

 

[Spirit of 67]

Meh, I'll go with Petterson.

Seems like there is a shift towards the alpha dog center being the prime piece a team needs.

Every time these questions come up I still get amazed at the talent pouring into the league.

 

[1972]

Is Heiskanen generational too even though he is already 19?

He's elite, but he's not in the same class as Dahlin.

 

[supsens]

Pettersson's been lights out for the Canucks. Him for sure. Dhalin is not even the best rookie dman right now. He's not even the best dman on the Sabres.

I am not sure what rookie dman is better. Dhalin is starting to heat up with 6 points in his last 6 games. Petterson has 2 over that time.

 

[Kamiccolo]

Curious, would you pick dahlin over Matthews?

Well I'm not really sure what that has to do with this discussion honestly.

 

[Sakujo]

Neither are particularly impressive imo

 

[EP40 AKA Lil Wayne]

Idk if its true that defense is easier to fix with a good system but if so, i chose the Alien.

 

[Craig Button]

Dahlin.