Idk man, with the way the lottery is structured now, a couple more injuries and we could be looking at a pretty nice pick... Just saying it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world... This team isn't going anywhere as currently constructed anyway. The players here now aren't going to determine our cup future, it's guys like Morin, Sanheim, Gostisbehere and Couturier who will do that. Giroux too, of course, but let's face it, he'll he on the downside of his career by the time this team is ready to compete for a cup.
People overstate Girouxs potential decline.
All signs from players with similar assist ratios would indicate that barring injury the kind of players who are pass first generally stay 'elite' until ~age 34.
It makes perfect sense... the only thing that really declines in a mans body between the age of 25 and 34 is fast twitch muscle fibres, but you gain strength naturally and also generally more hockey sense. Girouxs cerebral play should not be affected by the aging process until his body breaks down due to wear and tear.
5/10 of the top assist per game producers this decade were 30 to start the decade. 4/5 of them are over .9 PPG since reaching 30.
In all likeliness Giroux is still hitting ~75 points until age 34... that is good enough to be a top 20 forward in the league still.
I see our window as being 2017-18 until 2022-23. At that point Giroux will be 29-34 and the defensive prospects ages 21-24 to 26-29.
Age when D became elite (age to start season):
Chara: 25 (7th in Norris)
Keith: 24 (11th in Norris)
Suter: 24 (11th in Norris)
Subban: 23 (1st in Norris)
Weber: 23 (4th in Norris)
Hedman: 22 (9th in Norris)
McDonagh: 22 (11th in Norris)
Ekman-Larsson: 21 (7th in Norris)
Karlsson: 21 (1st in Norris)
Pietrangelo: 21 (4th in Norris)
Doughty: 20 (3rd in Norris)
And then when the '2nd tier' guys became legit top pairing guys:
Streit: 28
Giordano: 27
Sekera: 27
Seidenberg: 27
Niskanen: 27
Kronwall: 26
Boyle: 26
Campbell: 26
Greene: 26
Ehrhoff: 26
Vlasic: 21... then age 26
Johnson: 25
Enstrom: 25
Beauchemin: 25
Wisniewski: 25
Timonen: 24
Martin: 24
Muzzin: 24
Goligoski : 24
Wideman: 24
Letang: 23
Yandle: 23
Josi: 23
Markov: 23
Girardi: 23
Green: 22
Burns: 22
Edler: 22
Coburn: 22
Hamhuis: 22 (he has been a pretty similar player since, just only acknowledged more recently)
Seabrook: 22 (though had a rougher 23 season)
Bouwmeester: 22
Shattenkirk: 22 (not a complete enough player year #1)
Hjalmarsson: 22
Staal: 22
Voynov: 22
Fowler: 21
Faulk: 21
Hamonic: 20
Carlson: 20
Phaneuf: 20
Depending on how the D develop I reckon the window could be as little as 2-3 years and as great as 5.