Official 2015 NHL Draft Thread

[OrangeAndBlackMetal]

Idk man, with the way the lottery is structured now, a couple more injuries and we could be looking at a pretty nice pick... Just saying it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world... This team isn't going anywhere as currently constructed anyway. The players here now aren't going to determine our cup future, it's guys like Morin, Sanheim, Gostisbehere and Couturier who will do that. Giroux too, of course, but let's face it, he'll he on the downside of his career by the time this team is ready to compete for a cup.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Idk man, with the way the lottery is structured now, a couple more injuries and we could be looking at a pretty nice pick... Just saying it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world... This team isn't going anywhere as currently constructed anyway. The players here now aren't going to determine our cup future, it's guys like Morin, Sanheim, Gostisbehere and Couturier who will do that. Giroux too, of course, but let's face it, he'll he on the downside of his career by the time this team is ready to compete for a cup.

I wouldn't get your hopes too up. The change isn't too significant to help a team in the position that the Flyers are in.

If it was next year with the top 3 picks up for grabs I might have agreed with you.

 

[MadFerIt95*]

#BackOfThePackForMcDavidOrJack

 

[Appleyard]

Idk man, with the way the lottery is structured now, a couple more injuries and we could be looking at a pretty nice pick... Just saying it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world... This team isn't going anywhere as currently constructed anyway. The players here now aren't going to determine our cup future, it's guys like Morin, Sanheim, Gostisbehere and Couturier who will do that. Giroux too, of course, but let's face it, he'll he on the downside of his career by the time this team is ready to compete for a cup.

People overstate Girouxs potential decline.

All signs from players with similar assist ratios would indicate that barring injury the kind of players who are pass first generally stay 'elite' until ~age 34.

It makes perfect sense... the only thing that really declines in a mans body between the age of 25 and 34 is fast twitch muscle fibres, but you gain strength naturally and also generally more hockey sense. Girouxs cerebral play should not be affected by the aging process until his body breaks down due to wear and tear.

5/10 of the top assist per game producers this decade were 30 to start the decade. 4/5 of them are over .9 PPG since reaching 30.

In all likeliness Giroux is still hitting ~75 points until age 34... that is good enough to be a top 20 forward in the league still.

I see our window as being 2017-18 until 2022-23. At that point Giroux will be 29-34 and the defensive prospects ages 21-24 to 26-29.

Age when D became elite (age to start season):

Chara: 25 (7th in Norris)
Keith: 24 (11th in Norris)
Suter: 24 (11th in Norris)
Subban: 23 (1st in Norris)
Weber: 23 (4th in Norris)
Hedman: 22 (9th in Norris)
McDonagh: 22 (11th in Norris)
Ekman-Larsson: 21 (7th in Norris)
Karlsson: 21 (1st in Norris)
Pietrangelo: 21 (4th in Norris)
Doughty: 20 (3rd in Norris)

And then when the '2nd tier' guys became legit top pairing guys:

Streit: 28
Giordano: 27
Sekera: 27
Seidenberg: 27
Niskanen: 27
Kronwall: 26
Boyle: 26
Campbell: 26
Greene: 26
Ehrhoff: 26
Vlasic: 21... then age 26
Johnson: 25
Enstrom: 25
Beauchemin: 25
Wisniewski: 25
Timonen: 24
Martin: 24
Muzzin: 24
Goligoski : 24
Wideman: 24
Letang: 23
Yandle: 23
Josi: 23
Markov: 23
Girardi: 23
Green: 22
Burns: 22
Edler: 22
Coburn: 22
Hamhuis: 22 (he has been a pretty similar player since, just only acknowledged more recently)
Seabrook: 22 (though had a rougher 23 season)
Bouwmeester: 22
Shattenkirk: 22 (not a complete enough player year #1)
Hjalmarsson: 22
Staal: 22
Voynov: 22
Fowler: 21
Faulk: 21
Hamonic: 20
Carlson: 20
Phaneuf: 20

Depending on how the D develop I reckon the window could be as little as 2-3 years and as great as 5.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

People overstate Girouxs potential decline.

All signs from players with similar assist ratios would indicate that barring injury the kind of players who are pass first generally stay 'elite' until ~age 34.

It makes perfect sense... the only thing that really declines in a mans body between the age of 25 and 34 is fast twitch muscle fibres, but you gain strength naturally and also generally more hockey sense. Girouxs cerebral play should not be affected by the aging process until his body breaks down due to wear and tear.

He hasn't missed games (at least none that count) from them but he has been getting hurt these past few years with injuries. The wrist injury from the playoffs three years ago, the finger injury from the golfing incident two years ago, & now the groin injury from training camp this year. He also has had two noted concussions, one of them being in the same year as the wrist injury. So there should be a little concern there.

If we were somehow to end up with one of McDavid or Eichel (although I would bet against that happening) it would be a pretty damn good insurance policy for down the line on top of helping us in the now as well.

 

[Appleyard]

He hasn't missed games (at least none that count) from them but he has been getting hurt these past few years with injuries. The wrist injury from the playoffs three years ago, the finger injury from the golfing incident two years ago, & now the groin injury from training camp this year. He also has had two noted concussions, one of them being in the same year as the wrist injury. So there should be a little concern there.

If we were somehow to end up with one of McDavid or Eichel (although I would bet against that happening) it would be a pretty damn good insurance policy for down the line on top of helping us in the now as well.

For an NHL player though his injury list is pretty minor. The 'concussion' he had in Germany was actually found not to be one when he went to a specialist when he flew back, just a neck injury.

The only one I am worried about in the future is the concussion... the groin was something that had it happened two weeks before we would not have heard about. And broken wrists once healed are healed. The tendon injury could have been a lot worse, but now 'fixed' and seemingly causing no problems...

Thornton, Zetterberg and Datsyuk all had worse, more frequent injury records after a similar number of games played to Giroux. And St. Louis while relatively injury free had a badly broken leg at a similar age to Giroux, and then severe facial fractures that almost certainly gave him concussion as well.

Though I do acknowledge it is a case of 'who knows' with injuries...

I mean, Lindros ironically retired due to severe multiple wrist injuries that left him unable to shoot properly, he was still a 50-60 point player when he actually played... and had a great start to his time in Dallas... he had 12 points through the first 14 games of 06-07, before he started having trouble with his wrist again... and then later in the year his groin. But I remember him saying the wrist was really the final straw.

 

[JHG]

Eichel scores 2 goals & 2 assists in his first official NCAA game (all in the third period).

McDavid having a big night as well & seems to be answering his critics when it comes to goal scoring with 7 goals in 5 games (2 of them tonight with a period to still go).

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

For an NHL player though his injury list is pretty minor. The 'concussion' he had in Germany was actually found not to be one when he went to a specialist when he flew back, just a neck injury.

The only one I am worried about in the future is the concussion... the groin was something that had it happened two weeks before we would not have heard about. And broken wrists once healed are healed. The tendon injury could have been a lot worse, but now 'fixed' and seemingly causing no problems...

Thornton, Zetterberg and Datsyuk all had worse, more frequent injury records after a similar number of games played to Giroux. And St. Louis while relatively injury free had a badly broken leg at a similar age to Giroux, and then severe facial fractures that almost certainly gave him concussion as well.

Though I do acknowledge it is a case of 'who knows' with injuries...

The concussion I was referring to came in 2011-2012 the same year as the wrist injuries in the playoffs. It was when Simmonds knee'd him in the back of the head trying to jump over him while he was laying down on the ice, he missed 5 games because it. He had another one in 2008-2009 from a Corey Perry elbow to the head which he missed five games there as well.

My whole thing is that he's had trend of injuries as of late so who knows if that countinue's or not because every person/player is different when it comes to injuries.

 

[Appleyard]

The concussion I was referring to came in 2011-2012 the same year as the wrist injuries in the playoffs. It was when Simmonds knee'd him in the back of the head trying to jump over him while he was laying down on the ice, he missed 5 games because it. He had another one in 2008-2009 from a Corey Perry elbow to the head which he missed five games there as well.

My whole thing is that he's had trend of injuries as of late so who knows if that countinue's or not because every person/player is different when it comes to injuries.

It was the Perry one I forgot about!

Yeh, who knows with injuries... they are very unpredictable. Players who have been injury free for years can have spates of them, and guys who came into the league with loads can not be injured again for years.

 

[Psuhockey]

People overstate Girouxs potential decline.

All signs from players with similar assist ratios would indicate that barring injury the kind of players who are pass first generally stay 'elite' until ~age 34.

It makes perfect sense... the only thing that really declines in a mans body between the age of 25 and 34 is fast twitch muscle fibres, but you gain strength naturally and also generally more hockey sense. Girouxs cerebral play should not be affected by the aging process until his body breaks down due to wear and tear.

5/10 of the top assist per game producers this decade were 30 to start the decade. 4/5 of them are over .9 PPG since reaching 30.

In all likeliness Giroux is still hitting ~75 points until age 34... that is good enough to be a top 20 forward in the league still.

I see our window as being 2017-18 until 2022-23. At that point Giroux will be 29-34 and the defensive prospects ages 21-24 to 26-29.

I think Giroux will statistically be effective later on in his career. I think Mark Recchi is a good comparison. Giroux also does his best work on the power play so any physical decline won't hurt there. However Giroux is neither the biggest or fastest player so any physical decline will hurt him at 5 on 5 where younger, bigger, and faster defensive centers can nullify him. He has trouble now against tight checking teams because he doesn't have exceptional speed or strength to get separation. So IMO it's not can he be productive after 30 but can he perform as a #1 center at even strength. I am not so sure. Watching him struggle now at times 5on5 doesn't bode well but there isn't anybody else on other lines that scare defenders so teams can focus completely on him so it's tough to say. Now and in the future they need another top notch scoring center. If Couturier or Laughton don't become that threat, they will have to draft one preferably with size.

 

[Curufinwe]

Yzerman didn't win a Cup till he was 32.

 

[OrangeAndBlackMetal]

People overstate Girouxs potential decline.

All signs from players with similar assist ratios would indicate that barring injury the kind of players who are pass first generally stay 'elite' until ~age 34.

It makes perfect sense... the only thing that really declines in a mans body between the age of 25 and 34 is fast twitch muscle fibres, but you gain strength naturally and also generally more hockey sense. Girouxs cerebral play should not be affected by the aging process until his body breaks down due to wear and tear.

5/10 of the top assist per game producers this decade were 30 to start the decade. 4/5 of them are over .9 PPG since reaching 30.

In all likeliness Giroux is still hitting ~75 points until age 34... that is good enough to be a top 20 forward in the league still.

I see our window as being 2017-18 until 2022-23. At that point Giroux will be 29-34 and the defensive prospects ages 21-24 to 26-29.

Age when D became elite (age to start season):

Chara: 25 (7th in Norris)
Keith: 24 (11th in Norris)
Suter: 24 (11th in Norris)
Subban: 23 (1st in Norris)
Weber: 23 (4th in Norris)
Hedman: 22 (9th in Norris)
McDonagh: 22 (11th in Norris)
Ekman-Larsson: 21 (7th in Norris)
Karlsson: 21 (1st in Norris)
Pietrangelo: 21 (4th in Norris)
Doughty: 20 (3rd in Norris)

And then when the '2nd tier' guys became legit top pairing guys:

Streit: 28
Giordano: 27
Sekera: 27
Seidenberg: 27
Niskanen: 27
Kronwall: 26
Boyle: 26
Campbell: 26
Greene: 26
Ehrhoff: 26
Vlasic: 21... then age 26
Johnson: 25
Enstrom: 25
Beauchemin: 25
Wisniewski: 25
Timonen: 24
Martin: 24
Muzzin: 24
Goligoski : 24
Wideman: 24
Letang: 23
Yandle: 23
Josi: 23
Markov: 23
Girardi: 23
Green: 22
Burns: 22
Edler: 22
Coburn: 22
Hamhuis: 22 (he has been a pretty similar player since, just only acknowledged more recently)
Seabrook: 22 (though had a rougher 23 season)
Bouwmeester: 22
Shattenkirk: 22 (not a complete enough player year #1)
Hjalmarsson: 22
Staal: 22
Voynov: 22
Fowler: 21
Faulk: 21
Hamonic: 20
Carlson: 20
Phaneuf: 20

Depending on how the D develop I reckon the window could be as little as 2-3 years and as great as 5.

Oh no, I get it and I agree with you. I'm not saying Giroux will be washed up or not a great player by that time, just that technically he WILL be on the "downside" if his career. His prime is likely now, through probably the next 3-4 season. Key word, likely. I'm not saying he won't be great at 34, hell some players even get better with age, look at Datsyuk. But to COUNT on him still being an elite player when this teams key prospects are ready to contribute on that level, is misguided imo. He may still be a 65-70 point guy at that age, which will still be key to our success, hence why I included him in that group.

 

[CutOnDime97]

So are we taking McDavid or Eichel?

 

[Roo Mad Bro]

So are we taking McDavid or Eichel?

This team will not be bad enough to get that high of a pick and they won't be good enough to make a splash in the playoffs (if they even get there).

Worst place to be.

 

[Flyers4Ever77]

So are we taking McDavid or Eichel?

We're gonna get ****ed for some reason lol

 

[Patrick Division]

We'll probably be bad enough to get one of those guys...then go on a 6 game win streak at the end of the year and end up w/ the 11th overall pick. But the upside will be the momentum we will carry into next year.

 

[Sniped]

This team will not be bad enough to get that high of a pick and they won't be good enough to make a splash in the playoffs (if they even get there).

Worst place to be.

Sounds like another Philly team that experienced this for a decade....

Mediocrity..

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

We honestly need some speed, skill, & size in this lineup despatately. They need to go BPA this year. The only thing I would hesitant of drafting is a LHD but if the value is too good to pass up then you select one.

 

[Random Forest]

Sounds like another Philly team that experienced this for a decade....

Mediocrity..

I'm sick of these posts. As if it's impossible to get out of the rut of mediocrity without hitting rock bottom...

 

[FLYguy3911]

We honestly need some speed, skill, & size in this lineup despatately. They need to go BPA this year. The only thing I would hesitant of drafting is a LHD but if the value is too good to pass up then you select one.

Kylington is a lefty that can play the right side. Kid can fly.

 

[Sniped]

I'm sick of these posts. As if it's impossible to get out of the rut of mediocrity without hitting rock bottom...

The Flyers are/have been mediocre for a couple seasons now. I don't know what you're trying to argue.

Special teams has kept this team somewhat competitive east.

I was just saying sounds similar to the sixers, and anyone who watched them over a decade knows how brutal it was.

 

[Random Forest]

The Flyers are/have been mediocre for a couple seasons now. I don't know what you're trying to argue.

Special teams has kept this team somewhat competitive east.

I was just saying sounds similar to the sixers, and anyone who watched them over a decade knows how brutal it was.

Yeah, they are mediocre now, but you're suggesting that they will be forever mediocre unless they grab lottery picks.

You don't need lottery picks to become a contender.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Yeah, they are mediocre now, but you're suggesting that they will be forever mediocre unless they grab lottery picks.

You don't need lottery picks to become a contender.

Yeah, I mean our best prospect who's closest to making an impact was a third rounder. If you draft well & make smart moves you can easily climb out of mediocrity.

I never understand why people bring the Sixers & the NBA up when talking about the Flyers & the NHL. It wouldn't hurt at all if the Flyers were awful & ended up with high pick this year since the draft is very good but it won't set the franchise back if they don't.

 

[Random Forest]

Yeah, I mean our best prospect who's closest to making an impact was a third rounder. If you draft well & make smart moves you can easily climb out of mediocrity.

I never understand why people bring the Sixers & the NBA up when talking about the Flyers & the NHL. It wouldn't hurt at all if the Flyers were awful & ended up with high pick this year since the draft is very good but it won't set the franchise back if they don't.

Yeah, and what's funny to me is how everyone recognized that this team would be a low playoff seed this year, anyway. Does it set the franchise back to make the playoffs as a low seed and get a "mediocre" pick? If not, then it shouldn't set the franchise back to just miss the playoffs and get a "mediocre" pick.

People are losing their heads over this teams future three games into a season that these same fans had already written off before the year started. It's as if watching it live is what made it real. Nobody should be any more or less excited about the future than they were to start the year.

 

[Striiker]

Yeah, I mean our best prospect who's closest to making an impact was a third rounder. If you draft well & make smart moves you can easily climb out of mediocrity.

I never understand why people bring the Sixers & the NBA up when talking about the Flyers & the NHL. It wouldn't hurt at all if the Flyers were awful & ended up with high pick this year since the draft is very good but it won't set the franchise back if they don't.

Plus, our best player was drafted late in the 1st and our best goal scorer was a 2nd round pick.