He just broke hit 35 points for a career high playing with Ovi, I don't think it gets much better tbh. I don't think it will ever be high enough to justify his contract, and if he doesn't get his game under control he may not be around to see the end of it anyways.
His point totals compared to Dumba is one leverage Poile has on the negotiations. I'm also willing to bet that Ellis takes a hometown discount to remain a Pred if his will to stay with the team is a strong as I've let myself believe. I'd say 5x5 if it wasn't for Seattle expansion. Protecting 4+4 would leave one of Joey, FF, Arvy, Turris or Fiala out, but you don't want to lose any of the top4 dmen either.....Back to the Ellis situation... 3 young D lately in Trouba, Dumba, and Skjei I'd rather have on their new contracts than Ellis on whatever he'll get... I really really would be disappointed at this point if he got more than a $6M AAV. Something like $5-5.5M seems like a better fit to some of the comparables out there to me.
i swear.. we finally have a competitive team and 2 expansion drafts within 5 years- with tough rules.
How secure is this Seattle thing anyway? My impression without doing any research is that it's kind of taken as a fait accompli, but hasn't been formally announced as such? Is that true, or is it really a Done Deal? Or is there room for it to fall apart still?
This reminder actually gave me a little jolt of nostalgic optimism. Sure, he was very vanilla last year, but after missing most of a year, maybe that isn't unreasonable. If he can get a bit of the old spark back it would make him a lot less interchangeable.
BFC managed to communicate most of my sentiment towards this proposal idea accurately enough
but I figured this tidbit should get addressed. The short version is that one more year of Panarin - and the potential playoff benefits, plus the opportunity for guys like PLD and Bjorkstrand and Milano and maybe other guys like Abramov to learn from him - is something that's highly valued up here. So "trade him for whatever you can get" isn't resonating up here. And from what we can tell from his quotes, Kekalainen feels the same way.
BFC managed to communicate most of my sentiment towards this proposal idea accurately enough
Putting my Preds hat back on... in any case, I don't think the Preds need Panarin, nor would he be that much of an upgrade. He'd be the best winger on this team bar none, but Forsberg and Arvidsson are already pretty damn awesome, and Fiala is looking better and better. If this team was struggling I'd think differently (i.e. if I thought we needed a shakeup), but as it is we're coming off seasons of the Cup Finals and the President's Trophy, and meanwhile he seems pretty determined to see what the rest of the NHL looks like before he settles down and so it's probably not worth the risk, especially given what the cost would be.
Does any return make our offense as much stronger as losing Ellis makes defense weaker (this upcoming season)? If not, then holding onto Ellis - even if he wasn't gonna resign - is an asset itself.
Exactly. Ellis is an asset this year, and him not taking up $5-6M of cap space could be an asset for next year (and many years beyond). He has a value spectrum whether signed, traded, or even playing for this year and walking away. The Preds can afford to wait and choose which point on that spectrum works best for the team, relative to everything else that is going on for the team.
ellis doesn't return a panarin in this world or some other world i am not aware of.
Really? Wow. I don't get that. I know Ellis had a terrible playoff last year (but a good one the year before), and sure you could trade him at the deadline as an attractive "rental" to some other team for a 1st and prospect. But to me, he'd have to be really looking bad - like unexpectedly, unfathomably bad - in order for me to do that heading into this year's playoffs. Assuming we're in the playoffs and still looking like contenders of course. I'd rather make the most honest attempt at wining the Stanley Cup possible. And Ellis would be a part of that.
It would really be unwise to trade Ellis for something that couldn't automatically help us this year. We are a team that is going for a cup. A 1st and a prospect isn't helping us anytime soon so it would be really dumb to trade Ellis for anything less than a top 6 player. I'm on the side of the fence that thinks that we need to trade him if he doesn't sign a good contract. Josi should be our priority to sign and I believe that becomes a problem if we sign Ellis for 6.5 or more. And you don't let him just walk for nothing. That would be unwise as well. I get Ellis helps our team this year but you don't lose an asset like him for nothing. If you can get some forward help with term you make that move.
If if if... but the reality is that Ellis is on the trajectory to be a "rental" player for any team you trade him to, not a player that nets you a long-term quality top-6 forward. He's an impending UFA, and if we can't re-sign him it suggests he's an impending UFA... with some relatively extravagant contract hopes. The default expectation in that kind of trade scenario is that you get futures back for him instead of a top-6 winger.
I'm sure teams that would want to trade for him and has a big need for rhd would want to negotiate a contract before a trade and that boost up the value. I'd even do Ellis plus a first for a top 6 player.
I guess it comes down to specifics... give me the player to trade for and give me the contract he's going to accept, and then hypothetically... ok, maybe there is a trade out there. But I don't see that as a sensible "default plan". Default plan is more along the lines of sign him or let him walk, right?
