Speculation: Off Season Thread Part II: Wake me up when September ends

Gh24

Registered User
Feb 12, 2014
1,692
643
ellis doesn't return a panarin in this world or some other world i am not aware of.

weren't we leading the central division and only trailing vegas in the west till ellis returned? as well as ellis being absolutely brutal with josi in the playoffs. i really like ellis but i am not exactly afraid to lose him. his size will always keep him from being anything other than a 2nd pair dman and the older he gets, the little bit of foot speed he has will go.

I didn't say Ellis alone would return Panarin and beside I don't think that trade would make much sense to CBJ anyway.

But let's say Montreal wasn't going to extend Pacioretty, could we figure out a trade around Ellis and Pacioretty and again the question I initially asked; would our offense improve more than our defense weakens (or if the difference is reasonable)? They could use a RHD while Weber is out and maybe turn Ellis into assets at TDL..I guess..

Maybe Pacioretty + Jordie Benn coming our way (to solidify #4-#5) and Ellis + Smith going the other way as a base.

We upgrade Smith to Paccioretty and downgrade Ellis skillwise, but on the other hand add some physicality alongside Josi (where Hamhuis and Benn would compete for #4).
 

Porter Stoutheart

We Got Wood
Jun 14, 2017
14,876
11,256
I didn't say Ellis alone would return Panarin and beside I don't think that trade would make much sense to CBJ anyway.

But let's say Montreal wasn't going to extend Pacioretty, could we figure out a trade around Ellis and Pacioretty and again the question I initially asked; would our offense improve more than our defense weakens (or if the difference is reasonable)? They could use a RHD while Weber is out and maybe turn Ellis into assets at TDL..I guess..

Maybe Pacioretty + Jordie Benn coming our way (to solidify #4-#5) and Ellis + Smith going the other way as a base.

We upgrade Smith to Paccioretty and downgrade Ellis skillwise, but on the other hand add some physicality alongside Josi (where Hamhuis and Benn would compete for #4).
Well to me this specific example would be awful. Maybe there is a better fit out there. But Pacioretty seems like a dour underperformer who is clearly just a rental player himself. And plays LW. And is only very dubiously an upgrade at all on Smith. At least, he'd need a big bounceback season to be so. While Benn got overrated at some point because of a) a cheap long-term contract, and b) his beard? I don't know really know Benn tbh... but #6/7 seems more like his niche on a good team than #4/5?

I still think finding a good trade would be quite a stretch. We do still lean on our top-4 D, even with Hamhuis in the fold, and our need for an upgrade at RW is just really hard for me to elevate above that. At this point anyway. I'm not exactly a big Ellis fan compared to some, I do seem to find myself always downplaying his value to the team and the salary he should get... but I also still think that's more valuable than most generic 2nd line wingers. Both in general and specifically to us in our circumstances, actually. I'd definitely rather let Ellis walk than do this trade, anyway. Based on today's data. Just my (insubstantial) opinion.
 

GeauxPreds1

Registered User
Jul 5, 2017
2,071
1,010
Murfreesboro
I didn't say Ellis alone would return Panarin and beside I don't think that trade would make much sense to CBJ anyway.

But let's say Montreal wasn't going to extend Pacioretty, could we figure out a trade around Ellis and Pacioretty and again the question I initially asked; would our offense improve more than our defense weakens (or if the difference is reasonable)? They could use a RHD while Weber is out and maybe turn Ellis into assets at TDL..I guess..

Maybe Pacioretty + Jordie Benn coming our way (to solidify #4-#5) and Ellis + Smith going the other way as a base.

We upgrade Smith to Paccioretty and downgrade Ellis skillwise, but on the other hand add some physicality alongside Josi (where Hamhuis and Benn would compete for #4).
I think Ellis brings you more than patches. In my opinion patches value is low. I wouldn't mind going after him as a rental though. I'd give a 1st and prospect for him. If subban was good with it that is and he doesn't hurt our chemistry. I think a third line of
Patches bones tolvenen would give people fits. Another player I think would fit here is eberle. I don't know what we would have to give up but
Fiala turris eberle would be a dangerous line. I get the whole wanted to stand Pat I just would love to see us add a winger though.
Letting Ellis walk after a cup would hurt less ;)
 

Gh24

Registered User
Feb 12, 2014
1,692
643
I'm just spitballing here. I don't know if Benn is more than a 3rd pair guy. I don't how we'd fit a LW we traded a RW for to the lineup, but I know Paccioretty is more of a goal scorer than Smith is. Eberle sure would be an interesting target...

Either way, I still think we're better off holding onto Ellis, unless we know for sure Hamhuis can handle the top4 load or get someone else to play with Josi.

I understand Lavi didn't want to have two if his best breakout players on the same pair (Josi and Subban), but I would still prefer more balanced Josi - Subban and Ekholm - Ellis pairs....
 
Last edited:

Porter Stoutheart

We Got Wood
Jun 14, 2017
14,876
11,256
I'm just spitballing here. I don't know if Benn is more than a 3rd pair guy. I don't how we'd fit a LW we traded a RW for to the lineup, but I know Paccioretty is more of a goal scorer than Smith is. Eberle sure would be an interesting target...

Either way, I still think we're better off holding onto Ellis, unless we know for sure Hamhuis can handle the top4 load or get someone else to play with Josi.

I understand Lavi didn't want to have two if his best breakout players on the same pair (Josi and Subban), but I would still prefer more balanced Josi - Subban and Ekholm - Ellis pairs....
I think... well probably the ship has sailed on upgrading a wing? Or at least, temporarily the ship went out in the harbor for a little tour, and maybe it'll come back for some work and maybe it won't. We have over $7.5M in unused cap space and that says we could have signed or picked just about anybody on wing this off-season who was out there. And we didn't. 25 goals from Smith on 2nd line RW and Tolvanen "waiting in the wings" is obviously where Poile's chips are sitting.

I was promoting the idea of going after all the UFAs from JvR to Neal and hang the salary cap consequences on July 1st. But I understand the approach of standing pat on our Smith/Tolvanen setup instead.

Now maybe Tolvanen isn't ready, maybe Smith takes a step back, maybe somebody's top-6 winger gets on the market at a more reasonable price.... I don't know. But I'm content to "wait and see" on that front now. That's obviously Poile's angle anyway. Today... I think we sign Ellis to an extension **if** the parameters are right, but otherwise "wait and see" if they aren't.
 

glenngineer

Registered User
Jan 27, 2010
6,777
1,453
Franklin, TN
Name me one team in the last 10-20 years that had a top 4 as deep as ours and won the Cup? I can't think of any to be honest. You can run a D-corp with 3 studs and while losing Ellis would suck, moving him to get pieces back in value is a smart move for the short and long term. Our prospect pipeline is not deep by any means. We have to start restocking it at some point. Would I want to trade Ellis? No. Would I cry if he was? Nope. I don't think he's the difference maker between us winning a Cup this year or not making it to the Finals or the plaoyffs. He's a good player. I just don't see him as a difference maker.
 
  • Like
Reactions: predhead1

Porter Stoutheart

We Got Wood
Jun 14, 2017
14,876
11,256
Name me one team in the last 10-20 years that had a top 4 as deep as ours and won the Cup? I can't think of any to be honest. You can run a D-corp with 3 studs and while losing Ellis would suck, moving him to get pieces back in value is a smart move for the short and long term. Our prospect pipeline is not deep by any means. We have to start restocking it at some point. Would I want to trade Ellis? No. Would I cry if he was? Nope. I don't think he's the difference maker between us winning a Cup this year or not making it to the Finals or the plaoyffs. He's a good player. I just don't see him as a difference maker.
He's not a difference maker, agreed. Who do you get who is? If he's not a difference maker, *and* he's an impending UFA, how do you propose to trade him for a difference maker?

Restocking the prospect pipeline by trading Ellis for prospects... maybe it would not make you cry... but how would it affect the rest of the team? I don't have a high opinion of Ellis' on-ice impact, but... the players on the team are not going to love the idea of trading him at the deadline for prospects, I can pretty much guarantee that.

So again, my distillation of "he's not a difference maker" - in our circumstances - leaves us with the more practical potential outcome of just letting him walk as a UFA. It won't be any tragedy if that's the final outcome. There shouldn't be any recriminations directed Poile's way if that's how things go.
 
  • Like
Reactions: RickP

predfan24

Registered User
Jul 12, 2006
5,102
959
I'm not sure how one could look at Ellis's performances in 16-17 and 17-18 and say he isn't a difference maker. Is he THE difference maker? No. Is he a difference maker? Sure. Without even researching I can think of many performances off the top of my head over the last two seasons where he was key in certain games.

I can buy the idea of trading one of the top 4 D for an equivalent forward to help balance the team out but I certainly wouldn't trade any of those guys for picks and prospects. I don't care how barren the prospect pool is (it's pretty bad). That's a terrible idea. This team's window is now.
 

Predigree

Registered User
Dec 4, 2015
787
299
Ebensee, Austria
Guys you know my english is not very well, but i have to write this and i hope you understand.

Trade Ellis for Patches would make our offens stronger, a srong offense take pressure fom the D and from the Goalie IMO.

If we can trade Ellis for Max P. Do it.

Subban has nothing to say. If Poile want Max he can do it. Max is the only one who can say, no sorry i dont want to play with P.K.

P.K is part of the Team get Money from the Team and had to do what the Management says. Thats what professionell athletes have to do. Thats there Job.

It looks like Ellis and Poile have a different opinion about his next contract.

Max can be the Sniper we lost in Neal, ok, he is on the left side, but still a Sniper.

I know, Max had a down year, but i am 100 percent sure Turris or Bonino can feed him .

Finaly, Ellis is a great Player, but not that great to negotiate with him too long.

If he tryes to play, trade him for a top 6 like Patches or Skinner.
 

Porter Stoutheart

We Got Wood
Jun 14, 2017
14,876
11,256
Ellis seems to be ?well-liked?... well-integrated into the team chemistry and environment at any rate. He's a good player who contributes to the team. I guess it's all down to personal definition what you call a "difference-maker" etc. He can play 25 minutes a game, which is a big contribution.

Your 2nd line winger is not going to play those minutes. And to me, the difference between Ellis as our #2 RD and Weber as our #3 RD... well that's a pretty huge difference. Bigger than any difference between Pacioretty/Skinner/etc even as a 30-goal LW/RW and Fiala/Smith as respectively 23 and 25-goal 2nd line LW/RW now. And no, they aren't all going to get those same numbers if you just propose to bolster the 3rd line instead. There's only so much ice. And this doesn't even bring Tolvanen and his upside into the equation.

I'd have been all for adding another scoring winger at no cost - i.e. via UFA route - because what the heck, any upgrade is just a bonus. But I don't see it as being quite so viable as a trade.

Skinner and Pacioretty are good examples of wingers who might be on the market. What does Carolina want? They just traded for Hamilton and now have a top-4 D of Slavin, Faulk, Hamilton, and Pesce, locked and loaded, with De Haan and TvR backing them up. I'm thinking an Ellis rental is not exactly what they are looking for? Montreal is rebuilding? Do they rent Ellis? He's not going to want to sign there long-term is he? And they've got Shea and Petry on RD already? I mean, even the best marketable scoring wingers don't seem like trade fits so far, and I question the relative impact they could have.

Bring me other names and scenarios? Who does Edmonton want to give us? Lucic? Toronto? There are teams out there who might be looking for a longer term solution in an RD like Ellis. Do they have the winger that makes as much difference to our attack as Ellis does in his heavier 2-way minutes on D? I'm still not saying it's impossible. Maybe something is out there. Maybe something would fit, somewhere. Heck, look at the Turris trade, maybe even the rare and elusive 3-way is an answer. Just I can't EXPECT that there will be something or that I would necessarily fault Poile for not finding that solution and instead having to take the default path of letting Ellis go UFA instead. Good players have gone UFA before. It's not going to be the end of the world if that's what happens with Ellis.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Viqsi

Bringer of Jollity

Registered User
Oct 20, 2011
12,828
7,870
Fontana, CA
Name me one team in the last 10-20 years that had a top 4 as deep as ours and won the Cup? I can't think of any to be honest. You can run a D-corp with 3 studs and while losing Ellis would suck, moving him to get pieces back in value is a smart move for the short and long term. Our prospect pipeline is not deep by any means. We have to start restocking it at some point. Would I want to trade Ellis? No. Would I cry if he was? Nope. I don't think he's the difference maker between us winning a Cup this year or not making it to the Finals or the plaoyffs. He's a good player. I just don't see him as a difference maker.
Probably not, but I don't see Pacioretty or Skinner or any of these other names being that type of difference maker either.
 

Armourboy

Hey! You suck!
Jan 20, 2014
19,005
10,371
Shelbyville, TN
Why? What good would that do us? We lose a Top 4 D and gain some draft picks and prospects who won't touch the ice for years.
Keeping the #4D might not do us any good either, we won't know the answer to that until we get into the season. Get another of those nice injuries he seems to find and your sum total is zero. We will see how it goes. Hopefully he signs and it's a moot point anyways.
 

FossilFndr

RIP Steve
Jan 18, 2014
3,204
1,407
Fall Branch, Tn.
Seems like his best chance to get name engraved on the cup is with the Preds over most teams and maybe all the teams who would want him. I'd sure want to be known as a guy who won the cup over a guy who left a contender for a few extra $.
 

Gh24

Registered User
Feb 12, 2014
1,692
643
Bring me other names and scenarios?
For the sake of what if's...

What if it soon becomes clear Ellis and the team are not going to find an agreement and Ellis walks at the end of the season. Would a base for a deal like Ellis for Pominville + Bogosian make sense?
JOFA
Fiala - Turris - Smith
Tolvanen - Bonino - Pominville
Jarnkrok - Sissons - Hartman

Ekholm - Subban
Josi - Bogosian
Hamhuis - Weber

We upgrade our 3rd line where Pominville could compete for 2nd line duties and keep Smith on his heels
Same time we lose on some offensive talent on our blueline, but as it has been pointed out, you don't need a superb top4 to win the cup. We add some physicality for two years. Replace Weber with Fabbro in 19-20 and we have physicality, mobility and skill spread throughout our defense.

After year one we drop Pominville and his 5.6M
After year two we drop Bogosian and his 5.15M or extend him (expansion draft taken into consideration)

Now, as said, this only makes sense if Poile knew Ellis ain't gonna stay as a Pred after 18-19 and looks to turn him into some sort of assets.
 

Porter Stoutheart

We Got Wood
Jun 14, 2017
14,876
11,256
I'm not sure I know enough about Pominville and Bogosian, but... ok... I would give you a "not sure if serious" meme pic on that if I put a little more time into it. Would Pominville even make our team? Is Bogosian healthy enough to play in the league in a top-4 role anymore? At that money, there is no question whatsoever I'd rather have "nothing" over those players. Sorry. At least with "nothing" I could go shopping on the UFA market for better players. Or even just sit on a stack of cash and make the board happier about the team accounts. :dunno:
 

Bringer of Jollity

Registered User
Oct 20, 2011
12,828
7,870
Fontana, CA
I'm not sure I know enough about Pominville and Bogosian, but... ok... I would give you a "not sure if serious" meme pic on that if I put a little more time into it. Would Pominville even make our team? Is Bogosian healthy enough to play in the league in a top-4 role anymore? At that money, there is no question whatsoever I'd rather have "nothing" over those players. Sorry. At least with "nothing" I could go shopping on the UFA market for better players. Or even just sit on a stack of cash and make the board happier about the team accounts. :dunno:
You're on point here. Would have been a great deal 7-8 years ago. That is a very bad return for a prime (even UFA) Ellis.
 
  • Like
Reactions: GeauxPreds1

Porter Stoutheart

We Got Wood
Jun 14, 2017
14,876
11,256
I'm still thinking:

Ellis + Bonino for Zaitsev + Kadri.
I'm still thinking: chemistry. Maybe that deal is fair on paper, but it seemed like Bonino was fitting in and Ellis has become a leader on the current team. I'm not sure we have a good recent track record with getting the Russians to fit in either? I'd keep Ellis and Bonino for another year and see. It's not shakeup time yet. And I'm confident Poile is in the same camp.
 

GeauxPreds1

Registered User
Jul 5, 2017
2,071
1,010
Murfreesboro
I'm still thinking: chemistry. Maybe that deal is fair on paper, but it seemed like Bonino was fitting in and Ellis has become a leader on the current team. I'm not sure we have a good recent track record with getting the Russians to fit in either? I'd keep Ellis and Bonino for another year and see. It's not shakeup time yet. And I'm confident Poile is in the same camp.
It don't matter what trade proposal you hear, you're not getting rid of Ellis lol. I don't think Toronto does this anyway. Zaitsev would be a serviceable defenseman for the next 2 years until the ED. And Kadri is a major upgrade on bonino. Tolvenen would develop a lot better with Kadri than he would be with bonino. Kadri would actually push turris for the number 2
 

Detelethisaccount

Registered User
Jul 5, 2013
262
160
I think Poile has had a great offseason but not landing Skinner for what Buffalo got him for makes my head hurt.

In Poile we trust. Usually once he is happy with his team and gets all the RFAs signed he will make some sort of statement to that effect or he will start randomly talking up one or two of the prospects with an outside shot at making the roster. I have not heard him say anything like that this year so I think he may still be working. Not sure I would be expecting a blockbuster, but he may have a trick or two left up his sleeve.
 

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad

-->