Speculation: Off-Season Roster Building/Line Combos Thread

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Brock McGinn is Jamie McGinn.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Brock McGinn is Jamie McGinn.

And both are Jamie McBain.

 

[Mose]

Skinner and Faulk get a lot of flak for being bad defensively, but statistically McGinn is right there with them.

SCC2019. In the Slavin discussion you stated the data were from Corsica. Which got me interested in looking around their site. One of the things they do is player ratings. For what it is worth McGinn has a 72.82 rating, which is good for 50th of all LWs, so a solid 2nd liner. Ferland is 71.43, which is good for 83rd among LWs.

The Canes have 3 players who fall into the top 20 for their position in the Corsica player rankings: Hamilton is 13, Slavin is 15, and Aho is 16.

 

[GoldiFox]

SCC2019. In the Slavin discussion you stated the data were from Corsica. Which got me interested in looking around their site. One of the things they do is player ratings. For what it is worth McGinn has a 72.82 rating, which is good for 50th of all LWs, so a solid 2nd liner. Ferland is 71.43, which is good for 83rd among LWs.

The Canes have 3 players who fall into the top 20 for their position in the Corsica player rankings: Hamilton is 13, Slavin is 15, and Aho is 16.

Corsica Game Score takes Corsi into account. While it’s not quite right to say “all Corsi data is useless for Canes players”, it is hard to use as a tool to compare Canes to the rest of the league because Bill Peters is/was a master of generating empty Corsi. Constant perimeter, low-quality shots that were easy to corral, maintain possession, and generate more low-quality shots.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Usually those sites mean 5 on 5 when they say it. Not 6 on 5 and vice versa.

It looks like you’re right. I ran the numbers on Corsica and the ice time for EV situations matches up with 3v3 + 4v4 + 5v5. There is a gap in PP and PK time, but that must include 4v3 and 3v4 situations respectively. The gap between total ice time and EV + PP + PK must be a result of EN situations.

 

[RibFrabcus]

Corsica Game Score takes Corsi into account. While it’s not quite right to say “all Corsi data is useless for Canes players”, it is hard to use as a tool to compare Canes to the rest of the league because Bill Peters is/was a master of generating empty Corsi. Constant perimeter, low-quality shots that were easy to corral, maintain possession, and generate more low-quality shots.

I believe it uses relative corsi data so still useful because it weighs a players contributiom compared to his teammates. Not saying it's a perfect metric or anything but I think it's still a useful tool.

 

[cptjeff]

Corsica Game Score takes Corsi into account. While it’s not quite right to say “all Corsi data is useless for Canes players”, it is hard to use as a tool to compare Canes to the rest of the league because Bill Peters is/was a master of generating empty Corsi. Constant perimeter, low-quality shots that were easy to corral, maintain possession, and generate more low-quality shots.

I heard it said once that any metric loses all value once people start playing to the metric rather than playing to the ultimate outcome. Corsi works fairly well for teams that play to win hockey games- trying to score goals and stop goals. Once teams start to try to get more shots rather than more goals and give up fewer shots rather than fewer goals, then corsi has no predictive value for that team. Bill Peters coaches his teams to maximize corsi, so it's quite useless as a predictor of whether his teams and players will be successful at other facets of the game. Including winning.

 

[Stoat]

Hello. I'm shouting out as an outsider to Hurricanes.

Do you think there's a possibility that in some preseason match we could see a lineup with Mäenalanen - Aho - TT?
In my opinion that could work quite well. Aho and TT can play together, that we've seen now. We also know that TT and Mäenalanen played quite good together in 2014 World Juniors. That is when TT won point scoring, and Mäenalanen won goal scoring for the championship. So. The question lies in how well could Aho and Mäenalanen play together. They've played together for Kärpät, but Aho's development was way faster and they didn't produce that well together.

Well, remains to be seen.

- Stoat

 

[tarheelhockey]

Preseason? Absolutely. I’d be surprised if they didn’t give Maenalanen a decent look in the early going.

 

[MinJaBen]

Hello. I'm shouting out as an outsider to Hurricanes.

Do you think there's a possibility that in some preseason match we could see a lineup with Mäenalanen - Aho - TT?
In my opinion that could work quite well. Aho and TT can play together, that we've seen now. We also know that TT and Mäenalanen played quite good together in 2014 World Juniors. That is when TT won point scoring, and Mäenalanen won goal scoring for the championship. So. The question lies in how well could Aho and Mäenalanen play together. They've played together for Kärpät, but Aho's development was way faster and they didn't produce that well together.

Well, remains to be seen.

- Stoat

I was under the impression that the three of them played some on the same line at this year's IIHF World Championships. Is that correct or am I wrong?

 

[GoldiFox]

Hello. I'm shouting out as an outsider to Hurricanes.

Do you think there's a possibility that in some preseason match we could see a lineup with Mäenalanen - Aho - TT?
In my opinion that could work quite well. Aho and TT can play together, that we've seen now. We also know that TT and Mäenalanen played quite good together in 2014 World Juniors. That is when TT won point scoring, and Mäenalanen won goal scoring for the championship. So. The question lies in how well could Aho and Mäenalanen play together. They've played together for Kärpät, but Aho's development was way faster and they didn't produce that well together.

Well, remains to be seen.

- Stoat

He will have to contend with Zykov for that spot. Zykov scored 7 points in 10 games to finish out the season primarily on a line of Zykov-Aho-TT.

That said, they just paid Zykov $650k and Maenalanen $925k (RFA vs UFA). One argument might be that Maenalanen is just a $1 million lottery ticket but I don’t believe the Canes other moves indicate that is a likely scenario. When Dundon is spends $925k then he will want to force it to try to work in an extended look before cutting bait. If he’s willing to throw the season away on Darling then I’d just assume most of the money he is spending he wants to see on the ice, for better or worse.

 

[NotOpie]

Preseason? Absolutely. I’d be surprised if they didn’t give Maenalanen a decent look in the early going.

Yeah, I agree w/this....my sense is that Zykov, Maenalanen, Foegele, and PDG are vying for 3 spots between the, one of which is the 13th forward slot (I suppose Martinook to could qualify as part of that group too). Zykov seems to have the inside track on one of those give his one-way contract. Maenalanen is supposed to be a pretty solid skater, so it is really difficult to tell if he's a late bloomer or just performs well with select players.

Regardless, I expect all 4 of these guys to get some (pre-season) time on scoring lines, not just time on the 4th line. The team really does need to see what they have here....Also, w/Maenalanen's 2 way deal, if he performs well, he's a candidate for multiple call ups should injuries surface.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Martinook’s role is an interesting question. It’s easy to assume that he’s got a spot locked down, but we’ve thought that about a few guys who just completely washed out before they were halfway through the season.

 

[NotOpie]

Martinook’s role is an interesting question. It’s easy to assume that he’s got a spot locked down, but we’ve thought that about a few guys who just completely washed out before they were halfway through the season.

Oh, I certainly wouldn't put his name on the lineup card in pen....however, he has more skill that I think some give him credit for....he averages between 8 and 9 goals per 82 games played. Now granted some of those numbers are inflated because he did get some time on the PP in AZ, but his zone starts indicate something else (60% defensive zone starts at even strength for his career) too. More importantly, based on Waddell's and Brind'Amour's comments about being tougher to play against, he increased his hit total from 50 the previous season to 128 last season. I think they feel they've got a 4th liner with a bit of skill, who plays hard, and who will be hard to play against.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Oh, I certainly wouldn't put his name on the lineup card in pen....however, he has more skill that I think some give him credit for....he averages between 8 and 9 goals per 82 games played. Now granted some of those numbers are inflated because he did get some time on the PP in AZ, but his zone starts indicate something else (60% defensive zone starts at even strength for his career) too. More importantly, based on Waddell's and Brind'Amour's comments about being tougher to play against, he increased his hit total from 50 the previous season to 128 last season. I think they feel they've got a 4th liner with a bit of skill, who plays hard, and who will be hard to play against.

Just to clarify... I do think Martinook has a roster spot that’s his to lose. They brought him in with a specific role in mind so it would be surprising to me if they let a rookie skip over him unless it was a clear cut situation.

I’m just reacting to having thought this about other 4th line acquisitions (Kruger and Jooris last year alone) and watching them blow their opportunity before Christmas.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Just to clarify... I do think Martinook has a roster spot that’s his to lose. They brought him in with a specific role in mind so it would be surprising to me if they let a rookie skip over him unless it was a clear cut situation.

I’m just reacting to having thought this about other 4th line acquisitions (Kruger and Jooris last year alone) and watching them blow their opportunity before Christmas.

Everyone’s got their thing. Some like brunettes, some like brains...

...we like 4th liners with “oo”s in their names (either the letters themselves, or just the “ooh” sounds, we’re not picky).

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I'll be completely surprised if Martinook isn't in the starting line-up at the beginning of the season. Not saying he'll pan out long term nor that a young guy won't take his spot down the road, but to start the season, I'll be very surprised if he's not there. In addition to ability and style of play, he's one of only 3 guys on the roster that that actually have NHL PK experience in the past couple years.

 

[AD Skinner]

Everyone’s got their thing. Some like brunettes, some like brains...

...we like 4th liners with “oo”s in their names (either the letters themselves, or just the “ooh” sounds, we’re not picky).

Did you make that rhyme on purpose?

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Did you make that rhyme on purpose?

It’s lyrical, for sure. Doesn’t rhyme though. Not intentional.

 

[tarheelhockey]

It’s the first two bars of the newly released single, “The Hurricanes Rap”.

Funny enough, it already won the goal song contest.

 

[Dishface]

It’s the first two bars of the newly released single, “The Hurricanes Rap”.

Funny enough, it already won the goal song contest.

New Hurricanes Rap sampled from the Donkey Kong Rap

DK- Staal
Diddy- Aho
Chunky- Darling
Lanky- Slavin/Hamilton
Tiny- TT

Funky- Rod
Cranky- Ferland

 

[AD Skinner]

It's a slant rhyme, easily acceptable enough for the DK crew.

His coconut gun can fire in spurts,
If he shoots ya- it's gonna hurt

 

[Stoat]

I was under the impression that the three of them played some on the same line at this year's IIHF World Championships. Is that correct or am I wrong?

That would be great if they did. Unfortunately I have to tell you that it's fake news. Aho and TT played with Veli-Matti Savinainen the whole tournament. Maybe there was some odd changes at times, but all the lineups for games were TT - Aho - Savinainen.

Here are the lineups for the first and last match:
First: http://www.tilastopalvelu.fi/ih/gamerosters/index.php?gameid=11593&season=2018
Last: http://www.tilastopalvelu.fi/ih/gamerosters/index.php?gameid=11623&season=2018

- Stoat

edit. Forgot to thank you guys for your replies! Let me know how they perform just to keep my fantasy in order!

 

[tarheelhockey]

If common sense says something is probably going carry a racist overtone, don’t post it.

 

[enviSAGE]