Speculation: Off-Season Roster Building/Line Combos Thread

[My Special Purpose]

Even last year, in a complete crap year shortened by injury he had 1 less point than Staal and 2 more than Lindholm and Skinner on the PP.

Getting Lindholm off the power play immediately makes it better, no matter who replaces him.

Two words.....Jeff Hamilton

OK, maybe it matters a little.

I've decided that I really, really, really want Justin Faulk to have a huge bounce back season.

Can we wait to say this until we know he's starting the season with us?

 

[NotOpie]

Can we wait to say this until we know he's starting the season with us?

Fair enough, but I've always liked him and, much like Skinner, I still wish him well.

Personally, I actually think we start the season with him on the roster because Waddell isn't going to accept 2 disappointing trade returns just to be rid of him.

 

[NotOpie]

 

[NotOpie]

Knowing where we stand today, I'll take a swing at this:

Zykov/Aho/Teravainen
McGinn/Staal/Svechnikov
Foegele/Necas/Williams
Ferland/Rask/Martinook
PDG

Slavin/Pesce
de Haan/Hamilton
Fleury/Faulk
TVR

Mrazek
Darling

I believe the tiny bit of chemistry shown when Zykov played w/Sea Bass and Turbo last season was real and can be replicated. While I still think the 2nd line will get the toughest match ups, there's a lot of ink spilled about how Svechnikov works his tail of on the defensive side of the puck too. McGinn is just skilled enough to pot some rebounds and to take the feeds that Svech will send his way. After going back and forth on it, I think that Foegele and Necas, with their speed, could truly be a match up nightmare. JWilly as a trailer will get some cherry picking opportunities as well as being the responsible party defensively. The 4th line will pot a few more goals than normal and could prove good enough to get a fair amount of ice time for a 4th line.

 

[Unsustainable]

Knowing where we stand today, I'll take a swing at this:

Zykov/Aho/Teravainen
McGinn/Staal/Svechnikov
Foegele/Necas/Williams
Ferland/Rask/Martinook
PDG

Slavin/Pesce
de Haan/Hamilton
Fleury/Faulk
TVR

Mrazek
Darling

I believe the tiny bit of chemistry shown when Zykov played w/Sea Bass and Turbo last season was real and can be replicated. While I still think the 2nd line will get the toughest match ups, there's a lot of ink spilled about how Svechnikov works his tail of on the defensive side of the puck too. McGinn is just skilled enough to pot some rebounds and to take the feeds that Svech will send his way. After going back and forth on it, I think that Foegele and Necas, with their speed, could truly be a match up nightmare. JWilly as a trailer will get some cherry picking opportunities as well as being the responsible party defensively. The 4th line will pot a few more goals than normal and could prove good enough to get a fair amount of ice time for a 4th line.

Ferland is better than McGinn and Foegele.

 

[NotOpie]

Ferland is better than McGinn and Foegele.

Maybe, but I'd argue we haven't seen enough of him to know that....McGinn got less goals not playing on Johnny Hockey and Monahan's line. Foegele is still something of a magic bean, but he's faster and at least as good defensively.

 

[geehaad]

While it's possible that Rask may end up on the 4th line, you're out to lunch if you think both he and Ferland will be there.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Ferland is better than McGinn and Foegele.

Is he? Ferland scored 21 goals, 6 of which were on the PP, while playing exclusively with Gaudreau and Monahan. To put it in perspective, he played 770 5v5 minutes with Gaudreau and 750 with Monahan. The next closest forward for him was Jankowski at 92 minutes. McGinn scored 16 goals, 2 of which were on the PP. His most common 5v5 linemates were: Williams (598 minutes), Rask (330 minutes), Staal (272 minutes), Lindholm (271 minutes), Ryan (226 minutes).

Overall on the season, the two players had very similar Ozone start percentages and quality of competition, but Ferland clearly played with much better talent. The OISH% and OISV% were vastly better for Ferland, which to me says he played with better talent and he's 2 years older than McGinn as well.

Maybe Ferland IS better than McGinn, but I'd like to see that be the case when he's not with Monahan and Gaudreau.

That said, I don't think Ferland will be on the 4th line with Foegele being ahead of him. I expect both McGinn and Ferland to be in the top 9. Which line will depend on chemistry and how the team wants to use them.

 

[DaveG]

Maybe, but I'd argue we haven't seen enough of him to know that....McGinn got less goals not playing on Johnny Hockey and Monahan's line. Foegele is still something of a magic bean, but he's faster and at least as good defensively.

Yeah I'm not convinced that Ferland is better than McGinn. McGinn was able to put up 16 last year playing basically entirely with guys not named Aho or Teravainen as linemates. Ferland got 21 playing with Monahan and Gaudreau. Based on what we've seen out of McGinn the past couple years that level of production or better isn't out of line with the kind of spike I'd expect him to get playing with those two.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Unless there are more moves, to start the season, I still think we'll see something like:

Zykov-Aho-TT
McGinn-Staal-Williams
Ferland-Necas-Svechnikov
Martinook-Rask-Foegele/PDG/Maenalanen

Slavin-Pesce
CDH-Hamilton
TVR-Faulk
Fleury

If the team feels Aho or Necas isn't ready for C, then Rask moves up and maybe Wallmark gets a 4C spot.

 

[MinJaBen]

Unless there are more moves, to start the season, I still think we'll see something like:

Zykov-Aho-TT
McGinn-Staal-Williams
Ferland-Necas-Svechnikov
Martinook-Rask-Foegele/PDG/Maenalanen

Slavin-Pesce
CDH-Hamilton
TVR-Faulk
Fleury

If the team feels Aho or Necas isn't ready for C, then Rask moves up and maybe Wallmark gets a 4C spot.

This is how I see it as well. The only thing I could see different would be Fleury in the AHL vs. the press box and one of the other D we have as the 7th. I could see Foegele back in the AHL as well just because of his contract and waiver eligibility.

 

[bleedgreen]

Ferland is better than both Mcginn and Foegele coming in to me, though Mcginn may change that this season. Ferland is a good skater, and while Foegele is hyped as a strong skater I don't know that I would assume he's much faster. Experience matters still and Ferland knows where to go on the ice. We're under hyping Ferland. He could be our top goal scoring winger if Aho plays center depending on how much TT feels like shooting this year.

I'm a Mcginn fan, always have been and I know those posts will start bouncing in for him - I just think Ferland was a big part of this deal for a reason. He's gonna play a lot with good players until he shows he doesn't belong there.

Ferland is one of our better shooters as well. He's got a pretty nasty release. Of the three he's the most likely to snipe from further out than ten feet - and I don't think I under rate our guys shooting abilities.

 

[Dishface]

Unless there are more moves, to start the season, I still think we'll see something like:

Zykov-Aho-TT
McGinn-Staal-Williams
Ferland-Necas-Svechnikov
Martinook-Rask-Foegele/PDG/Maenalanen

Slavin-Pesce
CDH-Hamilton
TVR-Faulk
Fleury

If the team feels Aho or Necas isn't ready for C, then Rask moves up and maybe Wallmark gets a 4C spot.

If I would to fill one out, it would mirror this. This is the year Aho becomes our #1 Center, could be openig night or a couple months from now, but it'll hapoen. I think Fleury is our 7th D, not TVR.

 

[bleedgreen]

I think Fleury is the preferred 7th but we don’t know if either Faulk or TVR can play the left side well long term. Some guys don’t do it well.

 

[tarheelhockey]

I don’t see quite that level of offensive skill with Ferland. Yes he has a good release but it’s a lot like PDG, who also has a good release and uses it like 1 time per 10 games because he doesn’t have the complementary skating and hockey sense to get wide-open on a regular basis. Away from elite linemates, Ferland seems to score more often from within 5 feet of the net. Tips, rebounds, hard drives to the inside because he has no sense of self preservation. He’s like an actualized version of PDG who figured out what he needed to do to stick in this league.

To me, the reason you trade for this guy is because he’s an all-situations contributor who can play the heavy game. Not only does he play it better than anyone on our current roster, he plays it better than any Canes forward in recent memory. That’s what I see him doing here — buzzing around the net, brushing goalies, knocking guys on their butts in the crease, causing turnovers, looking for trash goals.

I’m prepared to see his numbers drop in this environment, and as long as it’s a modest dip I don’t think that’s cause for concern. The real measure of his contribution is going to be in his linemates’ numbers, based on the amount of space and havoc he creates for them.

 

[emptyNedder]

Away from elite linemates, Ferland seems to score more often from within 5 feet of the net. Tips, rebounds, hard drives to the inside because he has no sense of self preservation. He’s like an actualized version of PDG who figured out what he needed to do to stick in this league.

To me, the reason you trade for this guy is because he’s an all-situations contributor who can play the heavy game.

There are several yellow flags (I wouldn't call them red flags) about Ferland. First, he doesn't play in all situations as he has never been a penalty killer. To me that says his heavy game is undisciplined. Compare him to a player like Blake Coleman or Nick Foligno who play heavy but are penalty kill regulars. Second, he only had one goal in Calgary's last 27 games. The Flames were in playoff contention Feb. 1 when Ferland scored his 20th goal of the season. Then only one goal the remainder of the season as the playoff hopes slipped away. Third, he was in the bottom 20% of all forwards in expected goals against and defensive zone starts. All these flags indicate Ferland plays heavy but is not truly an "all-situations contributor."

My opinion is that McGinn is likely better than Ferland. Foegele won't be early in the season, but has the potential to be significantly better. All of this is fine as Ferland came with Hamilton, who was really the centerpiece of the trade (not to mention Fox who might end up being special).

 

[bleedgreen]

Ferland is known to throw a ton of hits, rare for any of them to be dirty - undisciplined doesn't fit this guys history.



Get past the hits and see some of the skill. Almost none of this is with SM or JG. There's some snipes in here and he drives some of the play. Even when he plays with top talent it's hardly like they're bouncing pucks in off his ass. He's better than McGinn of last season. It'll be fun to watch them compete with and against each other but I'm surprised with the lack of respect Ferland is getting here. He makes plays I haven't seen Mcginn make yet.

As much as I like McGinn, I'll be that guy. Ferland will outscore him. I'll happily eat that crow if they both score close to 20.

Second video for that year shows him with the big guys a bit, and he's making plays on his own - and Having to show some finish on the ones they set him up for.

 

[tarheelhockey]

This is a guy who takes 10-20 PIM a year after fights are accounted for, while hitting everything in sight. I’m not at all worried about his discipline.

It’s true that he doesn’t play the PK, but I do think he’s a decent backchecker and an excellent forechecker. I know I’ve seen him in ENG situations before (he scored the ENG that put Vancouver away in the playoffs after trolling them the whole series) which implies a level of trust from the coaching staff. He’s not some amazing shot blocker but he gets in his lanes.

He’s not Jordan Staal but he’s a guy I’d be ok with having on the ice for a defensive zone draw.

 

[Mose]

I think I get what hitchhiker is getting at. Not sure I agree as I haven't seen Ferland enough--but Ferland might get too puck focused. In fact, if he is near the top of the league in hits and doesn't take a lot of penalties, that means he is hitting players with the puck. I think that is a good thing. But if hitchhiker's numbers are correct and Ferland is near the bottom of the league in expected goals against, it could correlate to a player who plays with an edge and looks to make hits outside the defensive scheme. Again, I think this might actually be a good thing but it would definitely explain why Ferland isn't used on the PK.

 

[GoldiFox]

Skinner and Faulk get a lot of flak for being bad defensively, but statistically McGinn is right there with them.

Over the past 3 seasons 5v5 Goal Differential:

Player	GP	TOI	GF	GA	5v5 G+/-
Faulk	215	3875	134	178	-44
McGinn	158	1846	56	93	-37
Lindholm	235	3178	111	139	-28
Hainsey	153	2766	90	117	-27
Hanifin	239	3686	135	161	-26
Ryan	153	1881	72	84	-12
Skinner	243	3406	151	162	-11

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Past 2 years 5v5:

Player	GP	TOI	GF	GA	5v5 G+/-
McGinn	137	1628	50	75	-25
Ryan	147	1815	69	82	-13
Rask	153	2046	83	84	-1
Staal	154	2143	92	91	+1
Aho	160	2218	96	88	+8

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

McGinn has had a (-12), (-13), and (-12) 5v5 Goal Differential in each of the past 3 seasons. Always at the bottom. Not sure McGinn is a lot more than a 4th line forward who brings physicality and a decent shot to a team currently lacking physicality and shooters. Not every young player is going to get better every year. I'm not sure McGinn's standout moments have been much more impressive than when Nordstrom/Nestrasil were putting up points, Ryan was streaking, or PDG was on fire at the end of the year. No idea if Ferland is better but I hope that he is.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Does anyone know where 5v6 and 6v5 GF and GA are incorporated into the stats? Are they included in the 5v5 numbers? Those are not special teams situations.

Not applicable to McGinn, but the likes of Skinner, Hanifin and Faulk were rarely on-ice with the opposing net empty and on-ice regularly with the Canes net empty. I'm curious if that's skewing their stats a bit.

 

[tarheelhockey]

In fact, if he is near the top of the league in hits and doesn't take a lot of penalties, that means he is hitting players with the puck.

That means he throws legal hits. It’s very easy to have high PIM while hitting players with the puck — an elbowing major here and there adds up.

Ferland doesn’t do that because he’s a smart, clean hitter.

 

[Joe McGrath]

Does anyone know where 5v6 and 6v5 GF and GA are incorporated into the stats? Are they included in the 5v5 numbers? Those are not special teams situations.

Not applicable to McGinn, but the likes of Skinner, Hanifin and Faulk were rarely on-ice with the opposing net empty and on-ice regularly with the Canes net empty. I'm curious if that's skewing their stats a bit.

Usually those sites mean 5 on 5 when they say it. Not 6 on 5 and vice versa.

 

[Ole Gil]

Skinner and Faulk get a lot of flak for being bad defensively, but statistically McGinn is right there with them.

I've been saying this for a couple years now. He seems to get lost out there more than normal.

Hopefully, he gets a bit better at sorting out coverage.

 

[A Star is Burns]

Skinner and Faulk get a lot of flak for being bad defensively, but statistically McGinn is right there with them.

Over the past 3 seasons 5v5 Goal Differential:

Player	GP	TOI	GF	GA	5v5 G+/-
Faulk	215	3875	134	178	-44
McGinn	158	1846	56	93	-37
Lindholm	235	3178	111	139	-28
Hainsey	153	2766	90	117	-27
Hanifin	239	3686	135	161	-26
Ryan	153	1881	72	84	-12
Skinner	243	3406	151	162	-11

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Past 2 years 5v5:

Player	GP	TOI	GF	GA	5v5 G+/-
McGinn	137	1628	50	75	-25
Ryan	147	1815	69	82	-13
Rask	153	2046	83	84	-1
Staal	154	2143	92	91	+1
Aho	160	2218	96	88	+8

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

McGinn has had a (-12), (-13), and (-12) 5v5 Goal Differential in each of the past 3 seasons. Always at the bottom. Not sure McGinn is a lot more than a 4th line forward who brings physicality and a decent shot to a team currently lacking physicality and shooters. Not every young player is going to get better every year. I'm not sure McGinn's standout moments have been much more impressive than when Nordstrom/Nestrasil were putting up points, Ryan was streaking, or PDG was on fire at the end of the year. No idea if Ferland is better but I hope that he is.

I mostly agree. He's not the worst guy in the world to have as a 3rd liner or a physical presence 3rd wheel on a line. But I've said it for McGinn, and I said it for Nestrail and Nordstrom even after their hot streak that year. We'll be in a much better place when those are guys on our 4th line that move up when needed.