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Blue Jays Discussion: Off-Season Pt IV | Ah the waiting game sucks, let's play Hungry Hungry Hippos

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metafour

metafour

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Apr 6, 2008
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Discoverer said:
He's definitely going to be a star.
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Definitely? Jansen is almost 26. Also - he had a .230 BABIP in 107 games in 2019 and has a career .229 BABIP in 181 games. I think we need to drop the impression that his BABIP will definitely normalize and its going to make him a "star". Right now his low BABIP just looks like a flaw in his swing/ability to hit, not some random fluke. The fact that he had some success hitting in the minors doesn't guarantee anything, as we should all know.

Jansen's career best BABIP - .274 in 31 games in his first call up - is lower than Realmuto's single season LOWEST BABIP in his career. The difference there is really staggering.
 
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Zanks

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Apr 8, 2017
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Canada4Gold said:
Sure. Now lets talk Springer v Grichuk in center, or Bauer v Roark at starting pitcher. We were talking holes. Catcher isn't the biggest hole here, and it likely won't be for a while. That's the point.
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Ya, I think:

Springer vs Grichuk (2021)
And
Springer [@32yrs old] vs Martin (2022) [essentially the top pick in 2020 draft, already a top 20 overall prospect]

Is less of a hole compared to
Realmuto [best catcher in MLB] vs Jansen [projected average catcher?] and Kirk/Moreno [ might make top 100 prospect list?]

That's my opinion.

I think we should be going hard after Bauer first and foremost, but I think it's pretty reasonable to project that Realmuto would have the most impact over any possible upgrade.

I'm kinda surprised that this is so contentious. The Bluejays outfield and rotation aren't THAT bad. The catching hasn't actually produced, they were basically a black hole in last years line-up. Your comparing that black hole to the universally accepted best catcher in baseball.

If Jano or Kirk or Moreno were top of the draft prospects (like A.Martin), generally ranked as top 20 prospects, I'd be agreeing with your stance. But it's the opposite.
 
Hoverhand

Hoverhand

Barry Trotzky
Dec 6, 2015
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Zanks said:
Ya, I think:

Springer vs Grichuk (2021)
And
Springer [@32yrs old] vs Martin (2022) [essentially the top pick in 2020 draft, already a top 20 overall prospect]

Is less of a hole compared to
Realmuto [best catcher in MLB] vs Jansen [projected average catcher?] and Kirk/Moreno [ might make top 100 prospect list?]

That's my opinion.
Click to expand...

According to Bwar the difference between Springer and Grichuk last year was far greater than the difference between Realmuto and Jansen. Springer not only fills a huge need in center but his bat is also far more lethal than Realmuto's is and gives us a huge boost in the middle of the order. Realmuto's career high OPS in a full season was .825, great for a catcher but he's not going to be a game changer offensively. Would I be fine if they gave him the 6/200 that he's asking for? Yeah, Rogers has money pouring out of their ears, that's fine. In lieu of Springer though? Absolutely not.

The Jays window is now open, they made the playoffs last year. We shouldn't be waiting for Martin to fill a need at CF. When he comes he can either play in the infield or we can trade Springer and get assets back.
 

Discoverer

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Apr 11, 2012
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metafour said:
Definitely? Jansen is almost 26. Also - he had a .230 BABIP in 107 games in 2019 and has a career .229 BABIP in 181 games. I think we need to drop the impression that his BABIP will definitely normalize and its going to make him a "star". Right now his low BABIP just looks like a flaw in his swing/ability to hit, not some random fluke. The fact that he had some success hitting in the minors doesn't guarantee anything, as we should all know.

Jansen's career best BABIP - .274 in 31 games in his first call up - is lower than Realmuto's single season LOWEST BABIP in his career. The difference there is really staggering.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I exaggerated to express how firmly I still believe in him.

So far in his major league career, he has better than average BB and K rates and poor quality of contact. But guys with Jansen's quality of contact generally don't run sub-.200 BABIPs. Not remotely close. So I have no idea whether he's going to be a low-BABIP guy or not, but I'm really confident he's not going to be a "lowest-ever-BABIP" guy because lots of worse hitters have failed to come close to those lows. I think if he keeps doing what he's done so far in his career, he's roughly a league average hitter going forward. If he can make a small adjustment or two (and I believe that's harder to do as a young catcher breaking into the league because of all the added responsibilities of the position) then I think he'll be a star.

But no, he's not actually "definitely" going to be a star.
 
TheBeastCoast

TheBeastCoast

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Mar 23, 2011
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Hoverhand said:
According to Bwar the difference between Springer and Grichuk last year was far greater than the difference between Realmuto and Jansen. Springer not only fills a huge need in center but his bat is also far more lethal than Realmuto's is and gives us a huge boost in the middle of the order. Realmuto's career high OPS in a full season was .825, great for a catcher but he's not going to be a game changer offensively. Would I be fine if they gave him the 6/200 that he's asking for? Yeah, Rogers has money pouring out of their ears, that's fine. In lieu of Springer though? Absolutely not.

The Jays window is now open, they made the playoffs last year. We shouldn't be waiting for Martin to fill a need at CF. When he comes he can either play in the infield or we can trade Springer and get assets back.
Click to expand...
Or you just simply move Springer to right field where his bat still plays.
 

Zanks

Registered User
Apr 8, 2017
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Hoverhand said:
According to Bwar the difference between Springer and Grichuk last year was far greater than the difference between Realmuto and Jansen. Springer not only fills a huge need in center but his bat is also far more lethal than Realmuto's is and gives us a huge boost in the middle of the order. Realmuto's career high OPS in a full season was .825, great for a catcher but he's not going to be a game changer offensively. Would I be fine if they gave him the 6/200 that he's asking for? Yeah, Rogers has money pouring out of their ears, that's fine. In lieu of Springer though? Absolutely not.

The Jays window is now open, they made the playoffs last year. We shouldn't be waiting for Martin to fill a need at CF. When he comes he can either play in the infield or we can trade Springer and get assets back.
Click to expand...

Ya. The difference is almost exclusively based on DWAR though right?

I.E. BWAR says Grichuk suck at CF D and that Jansen is better defensively than Realmuto.

Historically, based on offensive output, Realmuto takes the cake (has a larger offensive impact in the lineup), is younger (than Springer), and based on other advanced stats, the defence of the above players is rated quite differently. Some think Realmuto is better than Jano, some grade Grichuk much closer to Springer.

From an OPS+ perspective, last year, you gain:
C : 38 (123 from 85)
CF : 26 (140 from 114)
 
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TopChedder

TopChedder

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Oct 2, 2013
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This MLB off season is the worst I have ever seen, as a whole.

So boring if you are a fan of MLB.
 
phillipmike

phillipmike

Registered User
Oct 27, 2009
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Saw Ben was reporting and thought it was a Jays signing. Damn, i like Bradley for our pen. I bet its more than his 4-5M he would have got in arb.
 
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