Blue Jays Discussion: Off-season Edition 3.0 - Steve Pearce signs for 2/$12.5

[BlueForever]

I mean its not an unfair criticism.

In the end what were the Jays needs???

1. Player that destroys left handed pitching - CHECK

2. Player that can still play defence - CHECK

3. Player that is interchangeable and adds flexibility to lineup - CHECK

4. Player that is on the cheap, useful but allows us to remain in hunt for Fowler, EE or another high priced salary - CHECK

Move on guys. This is a great acquisition. Now the next move is the key one.

 

[Discoverer]

Because he has actually improved his contact and BIP rates in recent years. Elite power, average plate discipline, not a dominant-pull hitter. You're not exactly buying him for his defence, though I have a hard time believing he is as big of a negative as he is perceived (roughly a win lost due to his arm?), especially since his range saw noticeable improvements based on UZR compared to his previous two years. Actually, he posted positive numbers with the Mets, which kinda shows that we can't just label him as a "historically awful" defensive fielder based on 838 innings in RF. He's very likely not 130-140 wRC+ levels of goodness, but he still put up a 124 wRC+ against RHP last season despite struggling for most of his time with the Mets. He's the good side of the platoon, and I optimistically expect better defence from him in the OF than Saunders.

Progress and improvement is always nice, but it has culminated in him being a slightly above average hitter. Cut the negative defensive value in half and you still have a player coming off a ~1.3 fWAR season that followed a pair of replacement level seasons who makes $13 million.

If you think he's worth that much, then you basically expect him to maintain all of the offensive progress he made last year while regressing to a decent defender after 5+ years of being terrible.

You can definitely offset some of his crapiness by platooning him... and I agree that a Bruce/Upton platoon would be nice... but that doesn't really increase his value.

 

[Discoverer]

I mean its not an unfair criticism.

It is. Steve Pearce isn't a platoon player and he's not a part-time player. There's a big difference between those things and someone who plays every day but has injury problems.

If you're concerned about the injuries, that's perfectly reasonable. If you think he's a bench player, you're just wrong.

 

[Eyedea]

Progress and improvement is always nice, but it has culminated in him being a slightly above average hitter. Cut the negative defensive value in half and you still have a player coming off a ~1.3 fWAR season that followed a pair of replacement level seasons who makes $13 million.

If you think he's worth that much, then you basically expect him to maintain all of the offensive progress he made last year while regressing to a decent defender after 5+ years of being terrible.

You can definitely offset some of his crapiness by platooning him... and I agree that a Bruce/Upton platoon would be nice... but that doesn't really increase his value.

A 124 wRC+ against righties isn't slightly above average though. And no, he hasn't had 5+ of terribleness on the defensive end, especially if you go by DRS. 2014 and 2016 are the only notable years, and while they are both 2/3 of the most recent seasons, he was also a +5 last year and had shown improvements in range (which shows the absurdity of UZR metrics in SSS) while with the Mets. I'm more comfortable labelling him within the +5/-5 range, so essentially an average defender.

Offensively he was also average against righties in 2015 despite having substantial BABIP issues. Regress his .240 BABIP of that year to his career .291 and again, he's an above average hitter. 2014 was the only truly worrying year but that was also when he had his knee issue.

 

[HockeyGuruPitka]

I like the signing. Opens up some funds to put into the pen. The jays were also very prone to losing 1 run games. Should help with that total.

Really dont want this team squeaking in as a wild card team, feel they are building towards being a power house (not just in the sense of hitting home runs).

 

[zeke]

This is where using WAR as an end-all statistic actually hurts player evaluations.

Career 107wrc+, +1.2uzr/150, +2.9drs/150

Last 3yrs 94wrc+, -6.3uzr/150, -4.4drs/150

Steamer projects 97wrc+.

 

[Eyedea]

Career 107wrc+, +1.2uzr/150, +2.9drs/150

Last 3yrs 94wrc+, -6.3uzr/150, -4.4drs/150

Steamer projects 97wrc+.

If he played here I'm taking the over for sure.

 

[RoyalCitySlicker]

I'm sorry, I'm still not sure how this guy isn't a part time player.

That or he is the MLB equivalent of Carlo Colaiacovo.

These "value" signings are really not doing it for me as fan or as a father of a Jays fan who now needs to have moneyball explained to her. She's 4. Sorry all your favourite players are gone...don't worry, though, the team is making dollar$.

I get that makes me a dummy around these parts cause I'm not building a team with a computer simulation, but I can live with that.

I'll miss EE and cheer for Pearce, but I'm just not buying what some of you are selling.

 

[HOTD]

I'm sorry, I'm still not sure how this guy isn't a part time player.

That or he is the MLB equivalent of Carlo Colaiacovo.

These "value" signings are really not doing it for me as fan or as a father of a Jays fan who now needs to have moneyball explained to her. She's 4. Sorry all your favourite players are gone...don't worry, though, the team is making dollar$.

I get that makes me a dummy around these parts cause I'm not building a team with a computer simulation, but I can live with that.

I'll miss EE and cheer for Pearce, but I'm just not buying what some of you are selling.

Well it worked out well with Happ/Estranda vs. Price wouldn't you say?

 

[Discoverer]

A 124 wRC+ against righties isn't slightly above average though.

I didn't say it is... I meant his 111 overall is. Again, I'm fine with him as a platoon, but that doesn't make the $13 million any better.

And no, he hasn't had 5+ of terribleness on the defensive end, especially if you go by DRS. 2014 and 2016 are the only notable years, and while they are both 2/3 of the most recent seasons, he was also a +5 last year and had shown improvements in range (which shows the absurdity of UZR metrics in SSS) while with the Mets. I'm more comfortable labelling him within the +5/-5 range, so essentially an average defender.

I also didn't mean that he's been bad every single year, just that he's been bad overall. And I don't see any reason to consider a +5 as part of the range of reasonable expectations. 0 to -10 makes more sense for me. Not that +5 isn't possible, but it seems like a stretch since it's a mark he's only hit once by any metric in the last three years (+5 by DRS in 2015). He's been in the negatives everywhere else over that time span.

I know I keep saying this, but if I was acquiring Jay Bruce, I wouldn't do it unless some of the salary was paid down and/or I didn't have to give anything up (like the Liriano deal). There are reasons for optimism, and his profile is a good fit, but I think there are far stronger reasons to believe the projections.

 

[Eyedea]

What are the reasons for believing projections is the question then, because outside of his BB% he hasn't actually declined as a hitter.

And yes, 1/3 years he was +5, and another he was -6. Basically what I'm saying is that his -13 over ~800 innings this year with the Reds is the outlier.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

It is. Steve Pearce isn't a platoon player and he's not a part-time player. There's a big difference between those things and someone who plays every day but has injury problems.

If you're concerned about the injuries, that's perfectly reasonable. If you think he's a bench player, you're just wrong.

I see your point of view, and agree that the way it was stated originally was overtly negative.

That said, he very much so is a part-time player. He actually benefits from limited plate appearances and innings in the field for various reasons, including health. After he raked in 2014, the O's tried to play him every day, and it back fired.

I have confidence the Jays will deploy him effectively. Always start him against lefties wherever (LF\RF\1B\DH), once and a while against righties he has historical success against, and your first pinch hitter off the bench regardless of the pitcher's handedness. He's quite the weapon, but managing his reps is a priority.

Now does that make him a "bench player who sux"...no. But I caution anyone who would play him every day, and most certainly don't think the Jays will.

 

[Discoverer]

I'm sorry, I'm still not sure how this guy isn't a part time player.

That or he is the MLB equivalent of Carlo Colaiacovo.

These "value" signings are really not doing it for me as fan or as a father of a Jays fan who now needs to have moneyball explained to her. She's 4. Sorry all your favourite players are gone...don't worry, though, the team is making dollar$.

I get that makes me a dummy around these parts cause I'm not building a team with a computer simulation, but I can live with that.

I'll miss EE and cheer for Pearce, but I'm just not buying what some of you are selling.

If Pearce is the last signing, then I think that's a fair criticism. But it won't be. It's one of a bunch of moves that will happen between now and the start of the season, and it's a smart allocation of a small bit of payroll space.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I'm sorry, I'm still not sure how this guy isn't a part time player.

That or he is the MLB equivalent of Carlo Colaiacovo.

These "value" signings are really not doing it for me as fan or as a father of a Jays fan who now needs to have moneyball explained to her. She's 4. Sorry all your favourite players are gone...don't worry, though, the team is making dollar$.

I get that makes me a dummy around these parts cause I'm not building a team with a computer simulation, but I can live with that.

I'll miss EE and cheer for Pearce, but I'm just not buying what some of you are selling.

See, now this is nonsense.

 

[zeke]

Zips sees Pearce in toronto the next two years posting about a 130wrc+ and playing about half the games.

 

[Canada4Gold]

We're not allowed to sign cheap good value guys, everyone must have at least 20 million dollars per and at least 3 years term!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! rabble rabble

 

[Amadeus]

The Jays are out on EE as per Phillips.

We have replaced EE with an inferior hitter in Morales and have potentially taken out a middle of the order bat in Jose's as well. This offseason isn't looking great so far. Granted its early, but as of now we have regressed than last year.

 

[RoyalCitySlicker]

Well it worked out well with Happ/Estranda vs. Price wouldn't you say?

And that means exactly what, for this?

If Pearce is the last signing, then I think that's a fair criticism. But it won't be. It's one of a bunch of moves that will happen between now and the start of the season, and it's a smart allocation of a small bit of payroll space.

I know. Just as a father of an enthusiastic Jays fan, it's a hard discussion to have with your kid - especially when you don't have much of an understanding of advanced statistics. I'm not a sky is falling type of person, I'm just not thrilled with the offseason thus far. That said, there is still lots of time to get me on board - not that that it should be a concerns of Shapiro and Atkins

See, now this is nonsense.

Awesome thanks! Which part is nonsense? The part about my kid being sad all her favourite players are being replaced with guys I've never really known much about and who are not household names? Or the part about a guy averaging less than 100GP per season at the age of 34 not being an everyday player or being extremely injury prone?

 

[JoeParez]

but as of now we have regressed than last year.

Quick, what are this weekends lottery numbers?

 

[zeke]

The Jays definitely need one big add for the lineup still.

I'm hoping for Fowler.

Fowler/Pearce/Morales is probably an upgrade over EE/Bautista/Saunders.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Maybe its just my background, and what I'm doing for a living right now....but where people see the Pearce signing (coupled with the Morales signing) as a door closed on Edwin, I see the perfect negotiating leverage against Paul Kinzer.

I don't "need" your guy. I like him, love him actually. But don't need him. Neither do the Stros, neither do the Yanks; Rangers say they're going internal at 1B\DH, Boston says they're out. The Dodgers aren't going to bail you out, neither are the Angels, and I think the idiots in Seattle are about to enter escrow over that Cano deal they came of leftfield to sign a couple years back.

That 4 year deal at $20MM sounds awfully good right now. Jackass.

 

[RoyalCitySlicker]

We're not allowed to sign cheap good value guys, everyone must have at least 20 million dollars per and at least 3 years term!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! rabble rabble

I'm not sure why someone can't love a signing and that immediately turns into what you wrote above.

The hyperbole used by some of you is astounding.

It's no wonder there is such a divide between those who like advanced stats and those who don't - you're not allowed to sit in the middle. It has to be one extreme or the other apparently.

 

[Discoverer]

What are the reasons for believing projections is the question then, because outside of his BB% he hasn't actually declined as a hitter.

And yes, 1/3 years he was +5, and another he was -6. Basically what I'm saying is that his -13 over ~800 innings this year with the Reds is the outlier.

And I don't expect him to be a -13 in ~800 innings, I expect him to be closer to the overall -8.9 he was over the full season. That number isn't an outlier... it's far closer to the norm for him than a +5.

I believe the projections because they're far more accurate than what I could predict and I don't see anything that seems out of the ordinary. Sure, the BABIP is lower than his career average, but he's been in the .260 range for three straight years now and that seems like it should be the new norm for him.

I would be really interested to see the ZiPS projections to see if/why they differ significantly the way they did with Morales.

 

[Brown Dog]

See, now this is nonsense.

It's gotta be ok for fans to develop emotional connections to its players and to feel disappointed when they're not retained.

 

[Canada4Gold]

The Jays are out on EE as per Phillips.

We have replaced EE with an inferior hitter in Morales and have potentially taken out a middle of the order bat in Jose's as well. This offseason isn't looking great so far. Granted its early, but as of now we have regressed than last year.

By my count this is the 15th time you've said this this offseason. Some variety would be nice.

You don't directly replace EE. It doesn't work like that, there's not really any EE profiles out there on the market besides EE. But you can replace the wins.

Morales directly replaces the value Jose provided last year. You can replace EE by adding an outfielder with a different profile. And they don't even need to be as good as EE because Pearce more than replaces Saunders who was a net negative on the team last year due to sequencing. His WPA was in fact terrible.

Only a fool would look at it and say we need to replace EE's 42 homeruns, and whatever RBI's, and Jose's..... whatever. And I'm assuming Gregg Zaun doesn't have an account here.

You have so much money to work with, we lost Jose, EE, Saunders, Cecil, but added a win and a half in Morales, possibly the same from Pearce with the added benefit he's flexible so it makes it easier to mix and match to find wins elsewhere. Add a quality outfielder and you're probably a better team than you were last year. Even if the pieces don't match up eye to eye to what they were last year. It's a sum, not individual parts