Blue Jays Discussion: Off-season Edition 3.0 - Steve Pearce signs for 2/$12.5

[ShaneFalco]

What's happened to the market for Edwin Encarnacion?

Part of it is that the market is flooded with hitters. Part of it also is that the Jays made Encarnacion a qualifying offer, attaching him to a first-round pick for all but the top 10 teams of the draft -- and under the new collective-bargaining agreement, teams cannot lose first rounders after this off-season.

New teams could jump in as Encarnacion’s market dwindles, or previous suitors could re-emerge. The Astros, for example, still could sign Encarnacion to play first, use Beltran strictly as a DH and move Gurriel to left. The Rockies could divert their attention from Mark Trumbo and push for Encarnacion, a better hitter. The Rangers could grow more interested.

Will Encarnacion land the four- or five-year contract he is seeking? At this point, it seems doubtful. A shorter term at a high average annual value might be more realistic -- and securing even that type of contract won’t be easy.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

He mashes and can effectively play around the diamond. Think a rich man's Valencia.

That's a great example. Danny would've been a great fit too, its honestly too bad he's such a jerk.

Yeah it's still possible that EE could come back. I just don't think you would go with Morales and EE essentially locking Pearce out of 1st. I mean he's versatile and would still find plenty of time, mostly in the OF. This combined with Morales seems like they've almost certainly moved on from EE and it would take a steal of a deal for him to come back.

You're almost undoing his starting versality by basically locking him into the OF pre injuries, but yeah I suppose you could dump Smoak and run EE 1B, Morales DH, Pearce LF, then Pearce is your backup 1B and backup 2B, which leaves you more room to carry Zeke and Pompey on the bench maybe.

Yeah I agree its not ideal to carry all three and certainly not how I would build a roster; simply saying its still possible. That Morales signing is...perplexing. I'm not going to harp on it. If he hits RHP like he did in 2015, then I'll be the first to eat crap about all my annoyance regarding it. It just didn't seem necessary to me.

 

[Revolt]

Love the Pearce signing.

 

[Nasty Nazem]

Solid deal for the Jays. They may not even need to platoon Smoak and Pearce together as Pearce is simply just better but I am sure they will try it at first.

Even though Pearce can play the OF a bit, I think this completely closes the door on Edwin. Really hoping the Jays can sign Fowler now.

It's too bad they didn't sign Joyce for the price he went, he would have been an excellent platoon in the OF with Upton.

 

[Eyedea]

Coming off a down year (public perception-wise) where he got off to a very slow start, and then raged back to get to 30 home runs. Frustrated a lot of Met fans through July. Will also be 36 at the start of the season. Whereas Bruce is 29, coming off 33 home runs, his best on-base percentage in three years (lol, btw). Will also cost less in salary in '17 I believe.

I actually think Bruce would cost more in assets, while not being as good a player. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I actually do think Bruce still holds some value, but I don't think he'd actually be traded for a lot.

Pompey for Bruce + Lindsay + Szapucki. Boom. Shatkin'd.

 

[Sokil]

Will Encarnacion land the four- or five-year contract he is seeking? At this point, it seems doubtful. A shorter term at a high average annual value might be more realistic -- and securing even that type of contract won’t be easy.

Most here have a problem with 5 years being a deal breaker, on a 3 year deal, what's the max per year we could do? 25? 28?

 

[one77]

If management signs EE and Fowler/Bruce I will love them forever

 

[WhatTheDuck]

I don't see how anyone could possibly not like this signing - Pearce is a great addition. I could see him double platooning at 1B (vs lefties) and LF (vs righties), effectively filling two teams needs with one player.

 

[Discoverer]

I actually do think Bruce still holds some value, but I don't think he'd actually be traded for a lot.

Pompey for Bruce + Lindsay + Szapucki. Boom. Shatkin'd.

How does Bruce hold any value as a player who hasn't been worth a single fWAR in the last three years and is set to earn $13 million?

And that trade actually doesn't seem that bad, but not because of Bruce.

 

[Sokil]

Oh thank God. Jays sign Pearce for 2 years 12.5M

Why? His numbers are mediocre. He's a nobody utility man. Why is everyone doing cartwheels? Boredom?

 

[zeke]

Pearce Career

Hit: 1857pa, 111wrc+ - 100wrc+ vRHP, 130wrc+ vLHP
1B: 1585.0in, +8.8uzr/150, +7.5drs/150
OF: 1511.1in, +1.2uzr/150, +9.8drs/150
WAR: 7.7fwar, 8.5bwar - 2.8war/650

Solid over his career, but that was with him being a replacement player to start. His last few years have been elite level performance interspersed with major injuries:

Pearce Last 3yrs

Hit: 1010pa, 131wrc+ - 125wrc+ vRHP, 145wrc+ vLHP
1B: 906.0in, +11.6uzr/150, +13.5drs/150
OF: 716.2in, +7.5uzr/150, +7.5drs/150
WAR: 7.3fwar, 7.8bwar - 4.9war/650

Though much of that was due to a huge 2014. In the 2yrs after that breakout performance:

Pearce 2yrs

Hit: 627pa, 113wrc+ - 113wrc+ v RHP, 113wrc+ vLHP
1B: 490.1in, +6.0uzr/150, +0.0drs/150
OF: 445.2in, -7.4uzr/150, -15.1drs/150
WAR: 2.4fwar, 1.9bwar - 2.2awar/650

But that's one good year and one bad year. Last year:

Pearce 2016

Hit: 302pa, 136wrc+ - 118wrc+ vRHP, 176wrc+ vLHP
1B: 278.0in. +5.2uzr/150, +9.7drs/150
OF: 84pa, -16.1uzr/150, -32.1uzr/150
WAR: 2.0fwar, 2.3bwar - +4.6war/650

and then the Steamer projection for this year:

Hit: 420pa, 111wrc+
Def: -0.3
WAR: 1.5fwar - 2.3fwar/650




There are signs that he may no longer be a great option defensively in the OF, but he should be an above average defensive 1B at least, and he should hit.

But injuries are a big deal, especially his most recent surgery which we don't know anything about how he will recover from. Medical staff better be on their game looking at his reports right now.

 

[Amadeus]

Get Fowler and Bautista or Bruce and I'm happy.

Fowler
Donaldson
Bautista
Morales
Tulo
Martin
Pearce
Travis
Pillar

If we get Bruce, I'd like Tulo to be inserted to the 3 hole.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

Why? His numbers are mediocre. He's a nobody utility man. Why is everyone doing cartwheels? Boredom?

Pearce produces big value, the numbers are all out there for you to see.

 

[zeke]

Why? His numbers are mediocre. He's a nobody utility man. Why is everyone doing cartwheels? Boredom?

He has recently hit, and projects to hit, better than anyone on the team other than Donaldson.

and bring some D to the table.

 

[Sokil]

He has recently hit, and projects to hit, better than anyone on the team other than Donaldson.

What.

He's a bench player who has never played a full season. I think you're being overly selective in looking at these stats.

 

[zeke]

A Fowler signing now would make for a nice offseason.

Fowler/Pearce/Morales in for EE/Joey/Saunders would be a nice bit of work.

 

[one77]

Get Fowler and Bautista or Bruce and I'm happy.

Fowler
Donaldson
Bautista
Morales
Tulo
Martin
Pearce
Travis
Pillar

If we get Bruce, I'd like Tulo to be inserted to the 3 hole.

Daaaaaaaamn I wanted EE+Fowler but this looks good too

 

[ShaneFalco]

Funny all the talk is about EE, not JB at all
Time to move on I guess
I'm ok with that

 

[Advanced stats]

Give it to him. And go out and acquire one of the OF from Mets.

Gives you balanced lineup. We don't need Fowler who will not live up to contract he wants. More chance of EE keeping it up into his 40's as a 1b/DH like Ortiz did. Then Fowler doing anything. That's my take.

Put Travis in the leadoff spot.

Seems like the best deal possible for him at this point....

If Jay's management is up for it..

 

[Amadeus]

The thing with JB is that he will bounce back! I have this gut feel! He was incredibly unlucky with his injuries this year. We all know he loves to talk and I'm okay with that because he's a damn good player and can back it up.

I'd welcome him back with open arms.

 

[zeke]

What.

you heard me.

Last 3yrs wrc+:

Donaldson 146
Pearce 131
Tulowitzki 119
Travis 119
Martin 117
Morales 108

Last 2yrs wrc+

Donaldson 154
Morales 120
Travis 119
Pearce 113
Martin 106
Tulowitzki 101

Last year wrc+

Donaldson 155
Pearce 136
Morales 110
Travis 109
Tulowitzki 102
Martin 99

Steamer projection for this year

Donaldson 137
Morales 113
Pearce 112
Tulowitzki 106
Martin 97
Travis 96

 

[Sokil]

The thing with JB is that he will bounce back! I have this gut feel! He was incredibly unlucky with his injuries this year. We all know he loves to talk and I'm okay with that because he's a damn good player and can back it up.

I'd welcome him back with open arms.

I would too but I think he's looking for long term, no? I think we could all get behind giving him a year to bounce back, but aren't confident enough that he'll bounce back permanently

 

[StuckOutHere]

The hitters market is fascinating to watch this year.

 

[Discoverer]

What.

He's a bench player who has never played a full season. I think you're being overly selective in looking at these stats.

You don't seem to know a whole lot about Steve Pearce.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

What.

He's a bench player who has never played a full season. I think you're being overly selective in looking at these stats.

Injuries are the only reason Pearce's games played numbers are down the past couple seasons, he's produced like a starter for three years now.

When a guy can put up 5 wins in just 383 PA, he's obviously a valuable addition.